RugbyRebels

Danny is being over optimistic here http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/35952004
We have to get past Edinburgh and Munster

Cardiff have:

• Dragons home
  Ospreys home
  Edinburgh away

Edinburgh have:

• Leinster away
  Munster away
  Cardiff home

Munster have:

• Connacht away
  Edinburgh home
  Scarlets home

I fancy us to beat the Dragons at CAP, but the Ospreys at the Principality is going to be difficult. Edinburgh away is going to be really tough. With my Blues hat on, I'll go for two wins with one bonus point.

Edinburgh will lose to Leinster and Munster, but probably win at home to Cardiff. One win.

Munster will lose at Connacht, beat Edinburgh, but maybe, just maybe the Scarlets can do us a favour and beat them in Munster. Again with my Blue hat on ... one win.

That gives

Blues 57 points
Munster 57 points
Edinburgh 56 points

Rule 3.5 states:
If two or more Teams finish with the same number of league points, their placings will be determined by the following criteria in descending order:

• number of matches won;
  the difference between points for and points against;
  the number of tries scored;
  the most points scored;
  the difference between tries for and tries against;
  the fewest number of suspensions;
  the fewest number of yellow cards received;
  Toss of a coin.

In which case, Cardiff will have won 11 games and Munster will have won 12. So the only realistic way Cardiff can get into the top six is to win all three of their remaining games and hope for the other results to fall our way. Not exactly a wing and prayer, but close. An alternative scenario sees Cardiff getting an additional bonus point, either from being a close loser to Edinburgh, or by sticking four tries on Newport and the Ospreys. I don't see us doing that against the Ospreys, but a close game in Edinburgh is very possible.

they've done amazingly well to get so close really - just hope we can maintain momentum over the summer & not simply lose a load of players like we usually do

But if Connacht win the European Challenge cup Pro 12 gets an additional team in Champions Cup.

Come on Connacht

If we fail to qualify, the 1 point defeat at home v Leinster and failing to get the match winning try in Treviso will be to blame. Still, we could win all 3 of those remaining games...

I reckon the Blues could win all 3 of those games, not sure all with Bonus points tho, Danny Wilson is starting to show his mettle.

Good to see the Blues showing some improvement at last. Hope they can make the last 6 (or 7 if Connacht do us a favour...), but without beating the Ospreys, thanks.