RWC Qualifying Repechage

[Puja]

The very last qualifying spot for RWC 2019 is up for grabs in November, with a round robin tournament between Canada, Kenya, Hong Kong, and Germany (played in France, because reasons). Normally speaking, you'd expect RWC everpresents Canada to walk this, but they've gone down the pan of late - firstly losing to Uruguay across two legs to give up the Americas 2 qualifying spot and end up in the repechage, followed by some embarrassing defeats that have seen them drop down the world rankings to where they're actually below Hong Kong now. They're still favourites, but it's an incredibly evenly matched tournament, with Canada just in front and Kenya just behind (in my opinion).

I'd actually be happy with anyone but Canada winning. It'd be good to have a second Asian side in the first Asian RWC (even if there are fewer Asian faces in the Hong Kong team than one would like), and Germany and Kenya are massive potential growth areas. Germany especially - they had a civil war in their union which saw them lose most of their players (and most of their games) for about 12 months, but they got gifted this repechage spot due to the Spain/Romania/Belgium eligibility clusterf*ck and the warring factions have abruptly made peace on the grounds of, "Holy shit, we're three games away from the World Cup". So they're back up to full strength, have funding to go temporarily pro, and have celebrity guest coaching from Mike Ford, which will help them a lot. Plus the games being in France gives them closest to home advantage.

11th November:
Hong Kong vs Germany
Canada vs Kenya

17th November:
Hong Kong vs Kenya
Canada vs Germany

23rd November:
Kenya vs Germany
Hong Kong vs Canada

Current rankings:
21 – 60.46 – Hong Kong
22 – 59.93 – Canada
28 – 55.71 – Kenya
29 – 55.59 – Germany

Puja

[Lizard]

I’m interested to see how good HK are. In the last 3 years they are undefeated against Korea (6 tests), Zimbabwe (2), Cook Is. (2), Malaysia (2), Portugal (1), Chile (1), & PNG (1). They have a mixed but winning record in 5 tests v Kenya and have only failed completely against Japan (4) and Russia (3).

[Puja]

I’m interested to see how good HK are. In the last 3 years they are undefeated against Korea (6 tests), Zimbabwe (2), Cook Is. (2), Malaysia (2), Portugal (1), Chile (1), & PNG (1). They have a mixed but winning record in 5 tests v Kenya and have only failed completely against Japan (4) and Russia (3).

Me too. The rankings are very accurate for the top 10, but get steadily less accurate the lower down you go due to lack of inter-continental games until very recently. I found out the other day that Canada has never played Germany or Kenya before and last played Hong Kong in 1998!

As for the others, Germany beat Kenya away back in 2017, but haven't played Hong Kong since 2010. So it's very hard to predict.

Puja

[Lizard]

To be fair, it’s a bit of a shock that Canada is now in the same “league” as the others so it’s no surprise they haven’t played them much.

[Lizard]

Jeez, Canada only just scraped home 26-20 v Oxford Uni. Canada was missing some unreleased foreign-based pros but Oxford is presumably mostly amateur.

Hong Kong lost 24-28 to a Dragons “A” side, whatever that means.

[Puja]

Jesus. My brain's still trying to accomodate Canada being this bad - it feels like they should be streets ahead of this lot just by their reputation and history, but results are proving that they're really not. Hong Kong not looking too clever either - if I were Germany, I'd be fancying this. They're back to the same personnel that turned over Romania a couple of years ago and this is starting to look like anyone's tournament.

Puja

[Lizard]

The demise of Canadian rugby is so sad, especially with the apparent progress being made over the border. If they don’t sort their shit out pronto the game could well disappear over there.

[Puja]

Kenya lost 36-5 to Romania, which backs up my thought they're likely to be the weakest, given Germany and Canada at full strength are around Romania's level (possibly slightly below). Hong Kong are the ones I can't pick - who knows what Dragons A means.

Germany aren't playing any warm-up matches and are instead just training. Their team is semi-pro, so they're likely to lack in cohesion compared to Hong Kong. I think that first match will be effectively the play-off for who will challenge Canada.

Puja

[Lizard]

It was Romania “A”, wasn’t it?

[Puja]

It was Romania “A”, wasn’t it?

I think it might've been as well. Even more embarrassing.

Canada beat Coventry 35-12 with probably their strongest team - for context Coventry are mid-table in the English Championship which is the division below the Premiership. Most Premiership sides would expect to put 50 points on them and someone like Saracens or Exeter would win by 70-80 points.

Puja

[Lizard]

I have a vague recollection of seeing Canada playing on TV in the late '80s or early '90s (RWC97? RWC91? efinitely amateur era, anyway) and they put down a 10-man scrum (i.e. they had 2 backs pack down either side of the no. 8) which was apparently their signature move. I can't find any mention of this on t'internet, and Law 19(5) now mandates 8 players in the scrum.

Am I just confabulating this whole Canadian 10-man scrum thing, or does anybody else remember it, too?

The only similar thing I can find evidence of is NSW Country using a 12-man scrum in the '70s to try and get a pushover try v Sydney.

[Puja]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/ ... -cup-dream

Interesting read and one which has swung me very firmly in favour of supporting the Germans - sounds like this is an all-or-nothing moment for their rugby team's hopes of moving forward.

Puja

[Puja]

Canada 65 - 19 Kenya
Hong Kong 9 - 26 Germany

Only got to see the last 20 minutes of the second game, but it looks like Kenya were as porous in defence as expected and Canada didn't have too much of a challenge. Hong Kong fought well and it was 9-12 when I turned on, but the Germans looked to have too much organisation, too strong of a pack, and the fitness they've been working on showed well and they ran away with it in the last quarter.

Massive game with Canada vs Germany next weekend - the winner will be going to Japan, you would've thought.

Puja

[Stones of granite]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/ ... -cup-dream

Interesting read and one which has swung me very firmly in favour of supporting the Germans - sounds like this is an all-or-nothing moment for their rugby team's hopes of moving forward.

Puja

I'm a natural supporter of German Rugby - I played for a German club for 3 seasons, albeit close to 30 years ago - however, I'm not convinced that even getting to the World Cup is going to move German Rugby forward. The fundamental polarisation in the positions of HP Wild and the DRV won't be resolved by this, only a root and branch reform of the DRV will suffice. Perhaps getting to the RWC would be enough for the Deutsche blazerati to put their hands up and say they got it wrong, or perhaps, more likely, they will bask in the reflected glory and claim that they put them there.

[Puja]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/ ... -cup-dream

Interesting read and one which has swung me very firmly in favour of supporting the Germans - sounds like this is an all-or-nothing moment for their rugby team's hopes of moving forward.

Puja

I'm a natural supporter of German Rugby - I played for a German club for 3 seasons, albeit close to 30 years ago - however, I'm not convinced that even getting to the World Cup is going to move German Rugby forward. The fundamental polarisation in the positions of HP Wild and the DRV won't be resolved by this, only a root and branch reform of the DRV will suffice. Perhaps getting to the RWC would be enough for the Deutsche blazerati to put their hands up and say they got it wrong, or perhaps, more likely, they will bask in the reflected glory and claim that they put them there.

I think the difference is that sponsorship will be a lot easier to come by with a RWC appearance (and greater chance of repeat engagements with a potential expansion to 24 in 2023) and will allow Wildexit to happen gently rather than a cliff-edge collapse of funding. It'll also put Heidelberg players in the shop window for European clubs, giving them somewhere to go and still be professional.

Puja

[Stones of granite]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/ ... -cup-dream

Interesting read and one which has swung me very firmly in favour of supporting the Germans - sounds like this is an all-or-nothing moment for their rugby team's hopes of moving forward.

Puja

I'm a natural supporter of German Rugby - I played for a German club for 3 seasons, albeit close to 30 years ago - however, I'm not convinced that even getting to the World Cup is going to move German Rugby forward. The fundamental polarisation in the positions of HP Wild and the DRV won't be resolved by this, only a root and branch reform of the DRV will suffice. Perhaps getting to the RWC would be enough for the Deutsche blazerati to put their hands up and say they got it wrong, or perhaps, more likely, they will bask in the reflected glory and claim that they put them there.

I think the difference is that sponsorship will be a lot easier to come by with a RWC appearance (and greater chance of repeat engagements with a potential expansion to 24 in 2023) and will allow Wildexit to happen gently rather than a cliff-edge collapse of funding. It'll also put Heidelberg players in the shop window for European clubs, giving them somewhere to go and still be professional.

Puja

I sincerely hope you're right.

By European clubs do you mean Pro 14? I think there is still a huge gulf between the standard that the top German players are at and the European clubs. Perhaps the Rugby Pro D2 clubs in France might look at the best of them.

[Puja]

I'm a natural supporter of German Rugby - I played for a German club for 3 seasons, albeit close to 30 years ago - however, I'm not convinced that even getting to the World Cup is going to move German Rugby forward. The fundamental polarisation in the positions of HP Wild and the DRV won't be resolved by this, only a root and branch reform of the DRV will suffice. Perhaps getting to the RWC would be enough for the Deutsche blazerati to put their hands up and say they got it wrong, or perhaps, more likely, they will bask in the reflected glory and claim that they put them there.

I think the difference is that sponsorship will be a lot easier to come by with a RWC appearance (and greater chance of repeat engagements with a potential expansion to 24 in 2023) and will allow Wildexit to happen gently rather than a cliff-edge collapse of funding. It'll also put Heidelberg players in the shop window for European clubs, giving them somewhere to go and still be professional.

Puja

I sincerely hope you're right.

By European clubs do you mean Pro 14? I think there is still a huge gulf between the standard that the top German players are at and the European clubs. Perhaps the Rugby Pro D2 clubs in France might look at the best of them.

I was thinking more Pro D2 and English Championship - I agree with you that they're a little way off top division European rugby (although everyone needs a good prop and the German ones look pretty handy).

Puja

[Stones of granite]

Looking at this from the other angle, where does German Rugby go if, as seems most probable, they lose to Russia?
It seems likely that the sponsorship money will dry up, and new sponsors to match HP’s offered €2mill/year will be hard to come by. Back to the wilderness?

[Puja]

Looking at this from the other angle, where does German Rugby go if, as seems most probable, they lose to Russia?
It seems likely that the sponsorship money will dry up, and new sponsors to match HP’s offered €2mill/year will be hard to come by. Back to the wilderness?

That's what I'd expect. Unless this close run to qualification is enough to attract a sponsor, I would expect collapse and relegation to happen pretty quickly. The only other alternative is that Wild is playing chicken with the DRV and will step in to avert collapse on the basis that he is given control, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

Puja

[Stones of granite]

I see that Van Der Merwe is named on the wing. If Canada can get the ball to him, I kind of fear for the Germans.

[Puja]

29-10 it finished to Canada - was 17-10 until very late in the game, but Canada scored two late tries to give polish to the score and, more importantly, earn them the bonus point and deny one to Germany. Bit of a shame as that all-but guarantees them qualification now - the only side that can mathematically overhaul them is Hong Kong and that would require a 5-0 match point victory over them in the last round.

Looks like same-old, same-old for RWC 2019, with Canada going through to likely finish bottom of their pool again for no great benefit to anyone.

Puja

[Stones of granite]

29-10 it finished to Canada - was 17-10 until very late in the game, but Canada scored two late tries to give polish to the score and, more importantly, earn them the bonus point and deny one to Germany. Bit of a shame as that all-but guarantees them qualification now - the only side that can mathematically overhaul them is Hong Kong and that would require a 5-0 match point victory over them in the last round.

Looks like same-old, same-old for RWC 2019, with Canada going through to likely finish bottom of their pool again for no great benefit to anyone.

Puja

Yeah, saw that. A bit disappointing but not really very surprising. I watched some of the game online, and I thought that Canada should have been much further ahead, but the German defence was quite strong, while the Canadian finishing was quite poor at times.

[Lizard]

On one hand, I’m pleased that Canadian rugby is not entirely dead, and at least we know where rock-bottom is for them. On the other hand, it’s a shame not to have any new blood at all at the 2019 RWC.

I will still expect Canada to beat Namibia in Pool B.

Namibia have lost their most recent match against every non-African test side they have ever played except Germany (2014), Hong Kong (1994) & Arabian Gulf (1993). That means Argentina (2015), Australia (2003), Canada (2014), Fiji (2011), France (2007), Georgia (2015), Ireland (2007), Italy (2001), NZ (2015), Portugal (2014), Romania (2016), Russia (2018), Samoa (2011), Spain (2018), Tonga (2015), Uruguay (2017) & Wales (2011)

[Lizard]

Canada in control but hardly smashing it out of the park against Hong Kong.

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/repechage

[Lizard]

So Canada preserve their 100% RWC attendance record.

Fingers crossed that German rugby continues to strengthen.