Ireland v All Blacks I: Sweet Home Away from Home, Chicago

[Lizard]

Should be a bit of fun.

TAB has Ireland at $9, NZ $1.04. Harsh but closer than they had Aussie for Bled III.

We are without both Retallick and Whitelock for the first time in yonks. But Tuipulotu and Romano are no slobs.

I can't say I'm totally up to speed with who will be turning out in green, but frankly it probably doesn't matter. They haven't won in 110 years of trying and I can't see that changing against the current techno-flow sci-fi rugby the All Blacks are playing.

So yeah, complacency totally kicking in meaning we will probably get a fright and have to nick it with a try after the hooter.

[jared_7]

I saw in the NZ Herald, a guy had put $100k on the ABs to go through the season unbeaten, but amazingly he was only going to get $150k back?!

Even with the dominance of the ABs, a return of $1.50 over 14 games is terrible odds. In fact, they equate to about $1.03 return for each game they played this year. What odds do the ABs normally get in game in the 4N? Surely against the Wallabies and SA the odds must stretch to $1.10-$1.15?!

[Lizard]

I don't religiously follow the odds but I think Bled III was $10/$1.05


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[dk4]

how do you expect that the selectors will treat this game? Is this game and the Italy one the games where they can experiment during this tour?


Which of the new caps might get selected?

[morepork]

What marketing genius scheduled this during the world series?

[Puja]

how do you expect that the selectors will treat this game? Is this game and the Italy one the games where they can experiment during this tour?


Which of the new caps might get selected?

I'd be wary of experimenting against Ireland, as they're not to be taken lightly. On the other hand, they're going to have a few key players missing in Peter O'Mahoney, Sean O'Brien, and Iain Henderson, so I'd expect them to be stronger in a fortnight, especially since they'll be at home.

If you did want another game to try out your fringe, then the French test would probably be best - knackered French, probably with loads of injuries, and not having been that good even when they were fresh vs your A-team at the end of a tour, bursting to prove a point.

Puja

[Spy]

I saw in the NZ Herald, a guy had put $100k on the ABs to go through the season unbeaten, but amazingly he was only going to get $150k back?!

Even with the dominance of the ABs, a return of $1.50 over 14 games is terrible odds. In fact, they equate to about $1.03 return for each game they played this year. What odds do the ABs normally get in game in the 4N? Surely against the Wallabies and SA the odds must stretch to $1.10-$1.15?!

That's certainly a pretty bullish call, given both the rarity of unbeaten seasons & the uncertainty of how the AB's would kick on this year after the mass retirements at the end of 2015. Might just work out for him though. This time. Next year he'll lose the house.

[dk4]

Outside the WC, the Autumn series games vs France used to be quiet good. Surely they are still a team that can beat the ABs on their best day? Or have they gone downhill since then?

Since the bench locks playing who will covering lock from the bench? Can Squire play lock?
Perenara or Smith?
BB or Cruden?

[Lizard]

Outside the WC, the Autumn series games vs France used to be quiet good. Surely they are still a team that can beat the ABs on their best day? Or have they gone downhill since then?

I don't think there is much doubt that France have declined in recent years.

In the 8 seasons 2000-2007, France won four 6Ns titles and finished outside the top 3 only once, with an average placing of 2.00. In the 9 seasons 2008-2016, France has only won a single title with only one other top 3 finish; average placing 4.55.

November tours are harder to compare given the varying opposition, but against the top sides (NZ, SA, Aus) they are doing noticably worse:
2000-2007: played 13, won 7, drew 1 (58%)
2008-2015: played 8, won 3 (38%)

There used to be a handy IRB Rankings analysis tool letting you track a team over time but since the "upgrade" to World Rugby it hasn't been available. You can access specific past rankings though. So at the beginning of each year since rankings began, France has the following record, from which a trend is fairly clear:

2004: 4
2005: 5
2006: 3
2007: 2
2008: 6
2009: 7
2010; 5
2011: 6
2012: 3
2013: 4
2014: 5
2015: 7
2016: 7

Average 2003-2007: 3.5
Average 2008-2016: 5.55

Can they still beat the All Blacks on their day? Yes, but their days are now fewer and further between than in the past. We certainly need to take them seriously and not dick about with fringe selections for the sake of it. (That's what Italy is for.)

Since the bench locks playing who will covering lock from the bench? Can Squire play lock?

Scott Barrett (Beauden's brother) and Vaea Fifita are on tour as specialist (but uncapped) injury lock cover. Luatua can cover lock more than Squire.

Perenara or Smith?

Perenara has shown he can do the job. Smith needs to get back in the saddle though, so it's his turn. If he doesn't hit form immediately expect him to be yanked early, around 45 minutes. Perenare will start v Italy and one other, I reckon.

BB or Cruden

BB. No question. We need to put Ireland away early and not give them a sniff going into the last 15 minutes. I'm not sure who will cover, Cruden or Sopoaga. If we are well up, expect to see whoever it is come on with 20-25 minutes to go.

[cashead]

Outside the WC, the Autumn series games vs France used to be quiet good. Surely they are still a team that can beat the ABs on their best day? Or have they gone downhill since then?

Since the bench locks playing who will covering lock from the bench? Can Squire play lock?
Perenara or Smith?
BB or Cruden?

Romano/Tuipulotu and Barrett, Luatua at 19
Smith
Cruden

[Lizard]

So the "personal reasons" why Paddy Jackson was not selected are that he was being interviewed by the police regarding allegations of sexual assault.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/inte ... es--report

[Puja]

Outside the WC, the Autumn series games vs France used to be quiet good. Surely they are still a team that can beat the ABs on their best day? Or have they gone downhill since then?

Since the bench locks playing who will covering lock from the bench? Can Squire play lock?
Perenara or Smith?
BB or Cruden?

They've gone fairly solidly downhill. The wealth of the Top 14 doesn't help them, as there are only limited numbers of French players in the top teams and playing in the European Champions Cup. In addition to this, the French league has gone very attritional of late and the play is slow and stolid, meaning that they're unlikely to be able to cope with your pace. If that's not enough, the Top 14 clubs take an attitude of, "I paid for it, so I'm going to use it till it breaks," to their playing staff, which doesn't exactly leave them in good nick for internationals.

Being French, they're still capable of pulling a performance out of nowhere, but I would be surprised if you didn't put 60 points on them.

Puja

[cashead]

Yeah, that sounds about right. They could have one of those days on the 27th, and they might catch an All Blacks team that is subconsciously already on the flight home but they were absolutely shit-awful during the 6 Nations.

[Lizard]

Since the bench locks playing who will covering lock from the bench? Can Squire play lock?

So now the locking situation has got interesting. Romano is coming home (family bereavement) and it seems won't be replaced. So I wonder who will partner Tuipuloto in the XV? One of the specialist rookies, or Luatua who has never been capped at lock but covers there in Super Rugby?

[cashead]

Go with form, and specialisation - Tuipulotu and Scotty Barrett.

[J Dory]

Sorry for Romano. Looks like we're going to be down a couple of cylinders in the engine room, losing Retalick and Whitelock was already a blow. How good is Barrett? Didn't see much super rugby and must confess I know f all about him.

[Lizard]

Go with form, and specialisation - Tuipulotu and Scotty Barrett.

Yes, I tend to agree. Use the opportunity to blood the next generation of specialists rather than play a someone out of position.

I'm not sure which of Barrett or Fifita is best suited to fill Romano's shoes.

Have we ever had two Polynesian locks start a test together before?

[J Dory]

OK, I'll bite, wtf does that have to do with anything?

[Lizard]

I guess that's looks a bit racist, doesn't it? I didn't mean it to look like that, it was just a an idle curiosity. Given the numbers of All Blacks with Polynesian ancestry there seem to have only been a few locks - Tuipulotu, Ross Filipo, Brad Mika are the only ones I can think of, although I'm not sure of the genealogy of Isaac Ross and Troy Flavell.


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[cashead]

Ross and Flavell are Maori, IIRC. I'm sure they both appeared for the Maori All Blacks back when they were "New Zealand Maori."

[Lizard]

In B4 someone (correctly) points out that Maori are Polynesian.

I was running through a "Pacific Island Heritage" All Blacks XV in my head and apart from locks really only struggled with a decent 10. I could only think of Stephen Bachop (not that good) and Lima Sopoaga (still relatively untested).

Have Ireland got into the Island Poaching, Project Player game yet?


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[zer0]

In B4 someone (correctly) points out that Maori are Polynesian.

But not before I point out that New Zealanders are (geographically) Polynesian.

[/pedant]

[J Dory]

Oops. Sorry Liz. Wrong end of the stick on my part.

[Lizard]

Oops. Sorry Liz. Wrong end of the stick on my part.

No worries, bro.

As the Howard Morrison Quartet sang, "Fee fi fo fum, there's no horis in that scrum."

[Puja]

In B4 someone (correctly) points out that Maori are Polynesian.

I was running through a "Pacific Island Heritage" All Blacks XV in my head and apart from locks really only struggled with a decent 10. I could only think of Stephen Bachop (not that good) and Lima Sopoaga (still relatively untested).

Have Ireland got into the Island Poaching, Project Player game yet?


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You kidding? Ireland are the kings of Project Players. They're the main country where the union is actually involved with finding and recruiting them.

Puja