v All Blacks III: the Decider

[paddy no 11]

Its great to be heading into a match where nobody has a clue whats going to happen. Looking forward to watching this regardless of result (as long as lions don't lose to some brain donor penalties, yes you mako)

[Puja]

I am hugely ambivalent about my predictions for tomorrow. On the one hand, I hate the cult of Kiwi supremacy that makes so many teams beaten before they start, and can really believe that we've got a good team, a couple of great players, a good attitude and can really make a mark against an ABs side that injuries have left with genuine weaknesses to exploit.

On the other hand, last week was a scraped victory in pissing rain versus 14 men, Gatland is coaching and I'm still concerned that Sexton/Farrell won't work as a pairing. Plus the cult of Kiwi supremacy is there for a reason - they're annoyingly good at winning.

So I'm fluctuating between a close game in which anyone can win or a 40 point blowout without us ever being at the races.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

There tight 5, retallick aside has made no impression so cant see a blow out. All said coles is a huge loss. I could gripe about a few selections for lions but just looking forward to an interesting contest, if our 10/12 axis gets torn apart so be it, at leat there's an attempt to play rugby

[Puja]

There tight 5, retallick aside has made no impression so cant see a blow out. All said coles is a huge loss. I could gripe about a few selections for lions but just looking forward to an interesting contest, if our 10/12 axis gets torn apart so be it, at leat there's an attempt to play rugby

Yeah, they didn't make a huge impression on England in 2014 for the first two tests and then horsed us in the third.

Puja

[Numbers]

There tight 5, retallick aside has made no impression so cant see a blow out. All said coles is a huge loss. I could gripe about a few selections for lions but just looking forward to an interesting contest, if our 10/12 axis gets torn apart so be it, at leat there's an attempt to play rugby

They dominated the Lions front 5 in the first test.

[paddy no 11]

It wasn't all that bad, retaalick won a few turnovers etc. Apparently lions done 2 sessions the Thursday before which would explain that. Lions hosed the crusaders which had a significant intl presence

[skidger]

I am with Puja. Can see the Lions winning again or a similar score line to the 3rd test in 1993. Best wishes - Trevor Brooking.

[zer0]

Yeah, they didn't make a huge impression on England in 2014 for the first two tests and then horsed us in the third.

That's typically how things go on modern NH three tests tours of NZ. The second test is the closest and the third the most lopsided.

2012 NZL vs IRE II: 19-3 (+16)
2012 NZL vs IRE III: 60-0 (+60)
2014 NZL vs ENG II: 28-27 (+1)
2014 NZL vs ENG III: 36-13 (+23)
2016 NZL vs WAL II: 36-22 (+14)
2016 NZL vs WAL III: 46-6 (+40)

2013 France are the anomaly in that their first test was the closest (23-13), while they got pantsed slightly more in the second test (30-0) than the third (24-9).

While the Lions are obviously stronger in depth than any of those individual sides, it does suggest a general trend in All Black performances, and NH fatigue, over a series, I think.

It wasn't all that bad, retaalick won a few turnovers etc. Apparently lions done 2 sessions the Thursday before which would explain that. Lions hosed the crusaders which had a significant intl presence

So the Lions get 57% possession and 62% territory against the Crusaders and "hosed" them. Whereas the All Blacks get 61% possession and 62% territory against the Lions in the first test and "made no impression". I see.

[Puja]

Yeah, they didn't make a huge impression on England in 2014 for the first two tests and then horsed us in the third.

That's typically how things go on modern NH three tests tours of NZ. The second test is the closest and the third the most lopsided.

2012 NZL vs IRE II: 19-3 (+16)
2012 NZL vs IRE III: 60-0 (+60)
2014 NZL vs ENG II: 28-27 (+1)
2014 NZL vs ENG III: 36-13 (+23)
2016 NZL vs WAL II: 36-22 (+14)
2016 NZL vs WAL III: 46-6 (+40)

2013 France are the anomaly in that their first test was the closest (23-13), while they got pantsed slightly more in the second test (30-0) than the third (24-9).

While the Lions are obviously stronger in depth than any of those individual sides, it does suggest a general trend in All Black performances, and NH fatigue, over a series, I think.

Mind, stats are misleading for that England tour, as we deserved a draw in the first test and lost it through a moment of not paying attention to let in a try, whereas the second test NZ were always in control and we scored a late converted try to make it look as though we'd run you close.

Puja

[cashead]

2013 France are the anomaly in that their first test was the closest (23-13), while they got pantsed slightly more in the second test (30-0) than the third (24-9).

The French being an anomaly? The devil you say.

[Lizard]

So it's been raining on and off all morning. The ground (well, my "lawn") is saturated but Eden Park does drain well. It will at best be greasy under foot.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I am with Puja. Can see the Lions winning again or a similar score line to the 3rd test in 1993. Best wishes - Trevor Brooking.

Aye. I'm not sure that I can see lightning strike in the same place twice. However the revolving door that is the ABs midfield selection policy and as been a full back as one could imagine makes me think we could sneak it

[J Dory]

Love that the series is in the balance. Game fckin on!

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

[Lord Lucan]

Can the Lions win? certainly.
Will they? if they take their chances, yes, if not, no. The all blacks will take their chances, that is the difference. As we saw in the first test.

[Lizard]

Bright sunshine alternating with heavy showers.

[onlynameleft]

Surely it is cheating to play at a ground they never lose at. One maybe but twice? Devalued series win.

[Lizard]

Literally in the back row. Great atmosphere!

[jared_7]

Dear god this UK coverage is appalling. The Welsh bloke sounds like he's literally pissing himself with excitement.

[Silvercloud]

Exactly Jared!

[WaspInWales]

At least 2 missed tackles from Farrell so far.

[WaspInWales]

Another mistake

[Banquo]

Faz having a tricky start

[WaspInWales]

Another mistake

[Stom]

So far NZs best player is Owen Farrell...

[Banquo]

Skillz