Trump

[Sandydragon]

It's not completely messed up, listen the wise and actually rather calm and reasoned words of Paula White




You're almost reminded of Desmond Tutu

Worst rap ever! [emoji23]

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

I wonder if there is a ring tone version?

[Which Tyler]

How is Bush responsible for more deaths? Climate change is actually quite a serious thing even before we consider Covid

There's this, plus increased divisions within society, both domestic and global - with subsequent loss of life; plus that Whilst W was a bit of an idiot; he was at least functionaly human with some form of a work ethic and an existant (if somewhat shonky IMO) moral compass; and certainly didn't attempt to actively undermine the efforts of health care during a global pandemic (and wouldn't have in a counterfactual).

[Mikey Brown]

Trump being worse than Bush is insane. Trump is certainly more of a narcissistic twat, but while both were tools for greater evil to some degree Bush is responsible (with a helping hand from Joe Biden of course) for an absurd number of deaths.

Trump has certainly been useful for ramping up the culture war. But he’s essentially useless to the GOP now they have Bush’s lot in the courts isn’t he?

I can only imagine what the amalgamation of alt-right, Cheney legacy, Lincoln Project fuds and whatever Stephen Miller-esque figure is around at the time will come up with in 4-8 years.

Hopefully Biden’s mate McConnell will be dead by then at least.

Bush waged a wholly unnecessary war, but he's hardly the only US President to have done that. Trump has broken the Presidency by refusing to obey any of the norms - wholeheartedly adopted fascism, lied consistently and continually, propagandised, actively and brazenly enriched himself and his family, appointed blatently unqualified friends and family to key government positions and rousted out qualified people on the basis that they weren't personally loyal to his brand, used foreign policy and presidential pressure as a weapon to improve his chances of re-election and sought help from foreign powers, cast aspersions on the very functioning of US democracy itself, used tear gas and National guard on legal peaceful protestors for a photo-op, sicced armed mobs on a legally elected governor that he didn't like, abused Presidential immunity to evade lawsuits and criminal investigations of him and his businesses - I could go on, but I really don't want to cause it's depressing enough.

If Bush had lost to Kerry, would there have been even the slightest suggestion that there might not have been a peaceful transfer of power? Would anyone have thought that Bush might say, "We'll see," when asked if he'd accept election results? Trump has broken the office of the President and, now the precedents have been set, I'm not sure if it can be fixed.

Sadly, I think the 2024 candidate will be Trump Jnr. He's been auditioning for it for the past couple of years and he's won the support of the MAGA crowd.

Puja

So he's run a big highlighter over a bunch of the ways US politics is structured around brazen corruption. I actually thought his 'breaking the office' might be a silver-lining to his Presidency. "The only man in the world capable of losing money on a casino" comes along and blows the whole grift for everyone else by being too fucking thick to keep his corruption within the realms of plausible deniability. I genuinely thought it might be the thing that prompts a serious change for America. The moment where the normies realise they're all in the same boat and they've been getting fucked by these guys the entire time. Where someone like Bernie, who had no right to go as far as he did, could feasibly get a shot at trying to instil some vague sense of equality.

There's a lot of awful shit on that Trump list, even without mentioning the border camps, there's no denying that. But I don't even want to think about the details in the equivalent list for Bush. The fact other Presidents may have been responsible for similar horrific things to happen isn't much consolation is it? Maybe Trump would have done the same if he were President, maybe he still would have given his actual response that he now had the highest sky-scraper in NY.

Trump Jnr. 2024 does sound horribly feasible though.

[Digby]

I wonder if there is a ring tone version?

It's possible people would judge you, on the off chance you ever answer your phone in public again

[Sandydragon]

Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

[Mikey Brown]

Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

[Which Tyler]

FB_IMG_1604587711089.jpg

[Son of Mathonwy]

Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

[Sandydragon]

He's gone from needing 69% of the remaining vote back when it was 85% counted, to needing 60% with 95% counted. It is definitely on.

Puja

That 60% figure looks to be true for N.Carolina and Pennsylvania too.

Definitely for N Carolina, I think PA is in a better position. BBC is reporting:

Trump 3215969
Biden 3051555

A majority of 164414 with 11% of the votes left to be counted. When the vote count was at 75%, Trumps lead was over a million. His lead is rapidly being eroded.

So with another 2% counted, the count is
Trump - 3224130 (+8161)
Biden - 3088475 (+36920)

45081 votes counted, 81.9% are for Biden.

If 1% of the vote is approx 22500 actual votes, then there are 202500 remaining to be counted. If the percentage remains the same then that's approx 165848 for Biden and 36653 for Trump leaving a final score of

Trump - 3252622
Biden - 3254323

That makes it a Biden win by 1701 votes. Its going to be tight!!

[Son of Mathonwy]

FWIW, I don't think Trump would have been so fixated on Iraq and Bush Jnr was, but I do believe that he would have responded against ISIS and AQ in Afghanistan. I don't think any US president would have ignored 9/11.

Without an Iraq invasion there might not even have been an ISIS.

It's scary to imagine Trump's reaction to 9/11. Although with his attention span and general incompetence it might have come to nothing. Rather than invade Iraq IMO he'd have been more likely to reconcile with Saddam and use Iraq as the entry point in an invasion of Iran. Until Putin told him not to.

[morepork]

Trump dispatches Guiliani and son Eric to Philly to hold a shouty press conference that yelled "FRAUD" over and over again without offering a shred of evidence, or in fact a single cogent sentence.

[Sandydragon]

FWIW, I don't think Trump would have been so fixated on Iraq and Bush Jnr was, but I do believe that he would have responded against ISIS and AQ in Afghanistan. I don't think any US president would have ignored 9/11.

Without an Iraq invasion there might not even have been an ISIS.

It's scary to imagine Trump's reaction to 9/11. Although with his attention span and general incompetence it might have come to nothing. Rather than invade Iraq IMO he'd have been more likely to reconcile with Saddam and use Iraq as the entry point in an invasion of Iran. Until Putin told him not to.

Sorry, my bad - teaches me to multi-task. I meant AQ and Taleban not ISIS.

[morepork]

It's not completely messed up, listen the wise and actually rather calm and reasoned words of Paula White




You're almost reminded of Desmond Tutu

I saw that earlier. I think her relationship with sanity is a bit tenuous, although she is by no means the worst American preacher I've heard on that front.

I can't rationalise this belief amongst America's fundamental Christians that Trump is someone they should support. I can only assume that its a life long allegiance t the Republicans no matter who is their president or candidate.

Those taxes won't avoid themselves boss. Plus, screaming about dead babies and immigrants is a fantastic way for getting stupid cunts to loosen the purse strings.

[morepork]

[Puja]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Hope so.

[Sandydragon]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

[Banquo]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Is the wall st journal site accurate- seems more up to date than the Beeb site for Georgia, but behind on PA.

They've called wisconsin too.

[Sandydragon]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

[Banquo]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

there will be challenges all over the shop. I still think it will come down to Nevada and challenges on Wisconsin and Arizona. Subject to PA obvs

[Puja]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

That 2% is still over 50k votes, Biden needs to make up 15k, so he needs them to be 32.5:17.5 in his favour or, to put it as a percentage, around 65% of them. Hasn't really changed from my earlier assessment - he's keeping pace with what he needs to do.

Puja

[Puja]

Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

[Puja]

Going back to ordinary electoral shenanigans, rather than active fascism, this is actually quite clever from the GOP, in a malevolent sort of way: https://www.startribune.com/gop-recruit ... fresh=true

Puja

[Stom]

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Is the wall st journal site accurate- seems more up to date than the Beeb site for Georgia, but behind on PA.

They've called wisconsin too.

I've been mainly following the Guardian because it's my online newspaper of choice, but it actually seems quite quick and accurate. Quicker than CNN, tbh, which hasn't given the latest update on Georgia yet: Trump is ahead by about 0.3% of votes, with about 1.8% to be counted...

And, perhaps even more importantly, both Senate seats look likely to go to a run-off. And if Trump is a lame duck president while that race is ongoing, is he going to bother mobilizing his base if it doesn't impact him? He might not, so the Dems have a chance to win those 2 seats and with them control of the Senate.

Now that would be important.

[Stom]

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

Will either of them be able to run if Trump is indicted and Jr. is also, therefore, in trouble?