If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

Let’s hope Ukraine can retake Kherson before the weather becomes totally shyte. The advances in the east of the country have been spectacular and it makes sense to consolidate before looking at any further advances. But now focusing on the Kherson area makes sense, especially if Russia wants to keep on feeding troops to Ukrainian forces to shoot up.

I think they still want to make more progress in Lugansk before they switch to the south, because they want to attack Donetsk from north and south. They need to take Lyman, Borova, and East Kupiansk. Followed by Svatove and Starobilsk.

I think only then will we see the offensive in Zaporozhzhie, around which time it will make sense to push hard in Kherson. Meanwhile Kherson should be liberated with fewest casualties as possible. There is no rush, as long as it is cut off using Himars.

The only problem with that is that as they advance closer to the border they will encounter people whose loyalties are more Russian. Taking back the separatist regions is probably a bit too far this year. Personally I’d go for Kherson and push the Russians back to the Crimean peninsular.

The Russians are dug in everywhere else. The defence is still quite thin east of the Oskil. They may have to wait until next year, and certainly getting at least to the Dnipr is preferable before rasputitsa. Would be great to hit south to Crimea, but doing so opens up a flank with Donetsk, so if they can get a flank both north an south then it's even better. They need to liberate as much as possible before the 6 month pause from Oct-Feb.

[Puja]

I'm no military tactician, but from what I can tell on the maps, there's large expanses of Luhansk they can take with relatively little in the way of protective geography. Ukraine are already over the Oskil, then it's the Zherebets and the Aidar as the last big North-South rivers in the area, and the Siverskyi-Donets, which is where the Russians will be well dug in.
Unfortunately, that gives Ukrain a larger border, as they'll have to keep units back to keep an eye on the actual Russian border as well - I suspect Ukraine will push on to one of those North-South rivers (my bet's the Aidar - if they can get there before winter comes - that gives them a much better chances of battering Lyschyansk and Severodonetsk from 2 sides - from what I can tell of the maps, this also cuts Luhansk off from the last big rail line to Russia from the North).
Of course, it's still an absolutely huge swathe of land to secure, and may simply be too optimistic with their current resources (really don't want them to overextend)

Kherson is already looking after itself, essentially besieged already, it's just a matter of time until it falls with minimal losses to Ukraine - unless Russia can build a bridge across the Dnipro, and keep it hidden from HIMARS.

The rest seems like it's more having enough troops, and probes, to keep Russian troops busy where they are. They've launched a few attempts along the east of the border, but it's all pretty well fortified, and fairly static for now.

Of course, things may well change as Ukraine's new troops are being trained up, and returned to Ukraine - but for now, I suspect they'll mostly be used to rotate and give the previous troops a rest, and go again in the Spring.

Protecting the flanks will be important for Ukraine as at some point their offensive will stop, either because it runs out of steam or weather or both. Kherson is effectively under siege but that’s a Ukrainian city with Ukrainian citizens in there. The Ukraine don’t want a long urban battle but equally the idea of an over winter siege isn’t a great one either.

The Ukraine also can't really afford a big defeat or even too costly a victory. I think they'll prefer to see if they can make the Russians in Kherson surrender rather than attacking it (or least be softened up by a winter under siege) - they're not going anywhere, winter is not going to be enjoyable for the occupiers, and Ukraine have got complete control over the supply line. It's heartless for the Ukranian citizens, as you noted, but Zelenskiy et al have proved to be pragmatic and I predict they would much rather preserve strength (and get the PR boost from Russians surrendering) than win a Pyrrhic victory which would set Spring defensive lines on the Dnipr.

Puja

[Galfon]

Heading for Lyman, Luhansk beckons..
seem to have the momentum in NE.
Rus. striking a nuclear installation further south would be unthinkable, but this is war, sorry 'special operation'.

[Puja]

The Russian-controlled areas have all spontaneously decided that they really want to have referenda on joining Russia this weekend. What a crazy random happenstance! I wonder what the announced result is going to be?

Lot of speculation that this is Putin laying the groundwork to turn this into a war instead of a Special military Operation because, once the regions are annexed, those mean Ukranians and their NATO weapons are going to be viciously and unprovokedly attacking the pure soil of Mother Russia and in which case a general mobilisation/tactical nukes can be authorised to defend the country. Bit alarming - anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

The Russian-controlled areas have all spontaneously decided that they really want to have referenda on joining Russia this weekend. What a crazy random happenstance! I wonder what the announced result is going to be?

Lot of speculation that this is Putin laying the groundwork to turn this into a war instead of a Special military Operation because, once the regions are annexed, those mean Ukranians and their NATO weapons are going to be viciously and unprovokedly attacking the pure soil of Mother Russia and in which case a general mobilisation/tactical nukes can be authorised to defend the country. Bit alarming - anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Puja

I'd love to be positive about this but I really can't be. Putin knows that if he is seen to lose then he is a dead man walking. Dictators don't tend to have good retirement options. So if its a case of win or face a bullet in the back of the head, he might be stupid enough to use tactical nukes in Ukraine.

Being crazy enough to launch a nuke at a Nato country is another matter altogether. He must know (and his hangers on must also realise) that nuking London (for instance) will have a very significant impact on Russia.

If those areas do become part of Russia then it will hamper Ukraines war effort. Seizing as much ground now as possible is a good options to prepare as treading carefully will be important thereafter.

It might also be time to start looking at how Ukraine can join Nato.

[Sandydragon]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

[morepork]

anyone got some good news to cheer me up?

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

Like we did in 1953 when outside influence cemented overly zealous religious justification in place of the scary proposition of socialised industry. That worked out well.

[Sandydragon]

Looks like Iran might be facing a lot of dissent and protests - stretching a bit, this could potentially lead to a revolution?

One can only hope.

Like we did in 1953 when outside influence cemented overly zealous religious justification in place of the scary proposition of socialised industry. That worked out well.

Yes, the west screwed up by overthrowing the elected government and installing the Shah. But not having a religiously extreme government that supported terrorist groups around the region in power would be a benefit to us.

[paddy no 11]

Ukraine, arm them to the hilt and push on, kadyrov criticising putin now, he'll continue to crumble

[Which Tyler]

Includes this complete mystery

[Sandydragon]

Also of interest are the queues of men trying to leave Russia before mobilisation, many of whom are driving foreign cars, so probably reasonably affluent middle class and not just those from the far flung areas who have been used as cannon fodder up to this point.

In a way its a shame they aren't staying and demonstrating, but another brick is loosened in Putin's regime.

[Puja]

Strong position from China, even it it's not one they're only willing to put out second-hand:



Not a good sign for Putin's plan of annexing territory and then claiming he's being attacked if China are already making noises about not standing behind it.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Also of interest are the queues of men trying to leave Russia before mobilisation, many of whom are driving foreign cars, so probably reasonably affluent middle class and not just those from the far flung areas who have been used as cannon fodder up to this point.

In a way its a shame they aren't staying and demonstrating, but another brick is loosened in Putin's regime.

Looks like they're also targeting specific ethnic groups too, like Crimean Tatars. Gonna guess they're intended to soak up Ukrainian bullets because there's no way in hell all these guys can be trained to a basic level of competence before they're in the shit in eastern Ukraine. It's a bunch of untrained yahoos being sent into the meat grinder to jam it up.

It’s the Russian way. Mass is what they are all about. Even in the latter phases of WWII they were completely uninterested in casualties.

[Which Tyler]

This is a bit earlier than I was expecting - I guess I was basing things on seasons in the UK, rather than actually looking up when the heavy rains fall in Ukraine. It's going to slow things, and make transport hubs ever more important - which has to favour Ukraine with HIMARS and apparently, far superior special forces operations.

[Sandydragon]

This is a bit earlier than I was expecting - I guess I was basing things on seasons in the UK, rather than actually looking up when the heavy rains fall in Ukraine. It's going to slow things, and make transport hubs ever more important - which has to favour Ukraine with HIMARS and apparently, far superior special forces operations.

[MEDIA=twitter]1574209231661711363[/MEDIA]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

[Puja]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

Usual proviso that I've no military / logistical training...

There are obviously positive and negative points to anything like this; I'm also not sure what I "want" from a Ukrainian winter this year.

The mud will mean that moving heavy equipment & supplies around will become much more predictable, and target-able - which benefits Ukraine massively - though they want to shoot and scoot, so they could be putting their HIMARS at risk by doing so.
Militarily, a harsh winter will be worse on the Russian armed forces than Ukrainian, if only down to supplies - and good-will from residents.
On a humanitarian level, a harsh winter could kill a LOT of Ukrainians in occupied territory.

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

[Sandydragon]

It will slow things down and will make it harder for Ukraine to take ground rapidly. But equally it will be hard for Russia to keep cities like Kherson supplied when their supply dumps keep getting obliterated. It could make it a long and miserable autumn and winter for Russian troops which will do nothing to boost their apparently shaky morale.

Usual proviso that I've no military / logistical training...

There are obviously positive and negative points to anything like this; I'm also not sure what I "want" from a Ukrainian winter this year.

The mud will mean that moving heavy equipment & supplies around will become much more predictable, and target-able - which benefits Ukraine massively - though they want to shoot and scoot, so they could be putting their HIMARS at risk by doing so.
Militarily, a harsh winter will be worse on the Russian armed forces than Ukrainian, if only down to supplies - and good-will from residents.
On a humanitarian level, a harsh winter could kill a LOT of Ukrainians in occupied territory.

The last bit is, sadly, likely to be the case. if Russian troops aren't being fed then they will steal from the locals, which will lead to starvation. I really hope I'm wrong, but its a huge risk.

[Sandydragon]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Hopefully this is more meaningful than that. Obama should never have drawn a red line he wasn't prepared to enforce.

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Hopefully this is more meaningful than that. Obama should never have drawn a red line he wasn't prepared to enforce.

Yep and yep. A lot of the issues we have now are based on the fact that we’ve either stood by and watched Putin do as he pleases or he’s called our bluff. Why not chance his arm once more given the situation he’s made for himself. If I were a betting man, I think Biden would do as little as possible in response, eg increase sanctions and/or send over more offensive weapons and/or cyber attack, that wouldn’t have a material affect on Putin’s decision making. Hope I’m wrong. Well, I hope we never have to find out if I’m wrong.
If the nutter does use nuclear weapons the US/NATO/West are in a no win situation.

[Puja]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

US takes the lead in threatening "catastrophic consequences for Russia" if they use nuclear weapons in Ukraine: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-sullivan

Good news - it had to be the US saying that first, cause anyone waving a nuclear dick around would be like me trying to intimidate a porn star, but it would've been very easy for Biden et al to have avoided saying anything much of anything and equivocated around it to not take a position.I don't know if it'll help him domestically (or if the average Yank voter knows or understands), but it's the morally right move to have made.

Puja

Obama said similar if chemical weapons were used in Syria…

Fair point. Mind, Syria was more of a confusing and deniable clusterfuck than this - the Russian army wasn't even officially there, any chemical weapons definitely didn't happen and, if they did happen, were solely the province of the locals, etc. etc. Plus chemical weapons are a very wavy red line generally, in that they've been used lots, all over the place, and no-one's really enforced anything on the users. Sandy's right - it was a stupid thing to try and draw a red line on.

Nuclear weapons, on the other hand, are the one red line that everyone agrees on so hard that nations have lost wars when they could have won them (or at least made a desert and called it peace) with even low-yield nukes. It's universally considered the ultimate beyond the pale action, to the extent that it's never been done again after the first time (counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki as one occasion as they were effectively the same strike in political terms).

I'd like to hope it's enough to give Putin pause and be sending a solid message that the consensus still stands and even a wafer-thin tactical nuke will not be tolerated by the world at large.

Puja

Both Syria and Russia are signatories to the Chemical Weapons Convention…
Obama knew of the conditions in Syria when he made the red line though, ultimately, it’s just one in a long list of western acts of inaction or negative actions that have led to this point.