Trump

[Banquo]

Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

Officially, Alaska as well - all 3 because of mail-on deadlines.
Of course, Alaska won't be close anyway

yep. But as you say, very unlikely Vegas and Reno postal votes will favour Trump. So looks like a done deal, given most of the MI votes awaited are from Detroit.

Then it starts to get nasty.

[Sandydragon]

Just been listening to an American academic on the BBC talk very passionately about how the electoral college is an anachronism.

Given that more people voted for Hillary in 2016 and its almost certain that more people will vote for Biden this time around, its hard to disagree with that assessment.

At least unless you are a dyed in the wool Republican.

[Which Tyler]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

[Which Tyler]

Just a thought, in terms of contesting the results... Did Biden play a blinder with his grandstanding to say nothing much?

That goaded Trump to grandstand, during which he inevitably couldn't be diplomatic, and may have compromised his contesting of results by trying to call the election early and accusing fraud whilst votes are still being counted.

[paddy no 11]

Just a thought, in terms of contesting the results... Did Biden play a blinder with his grandstanding to say nothing much?

That goaded Trump to grandstand, during which he inevitably couldn't be diplomatic, and may have compromised his contesting of results by trying to call the election early and accusing fraud whilst votes are still being counted.

Think tump was in a rage after fox called arizona for biden....he said it in speech and you could see the rage on him

[Zhivago]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

[Banquo]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

I'd assume Michigan too?

[Which Tyler]

Think tump was in a rage after fox called arizona for biden....he said it in speech and you could see the rage on him

Yes, he was raging, but was being kept quiet... right up until Biden addressed the crowd, then they just couldn't hold him back anymore?

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

I'd assume Michigan too?

I'm more thinking of only the closer states going to recount. I think Michigan an Wisconsin are pulling out too big a gap.
Basically, if the victor gets above 50%, it should be safe, unless its to disenfrachise ballots that arrive after 6.00pm yesterday. Even Barr is unlikely to try to get votes thrown out that had arrived at the counting stations before counting started.

[morepork]

I wouldn't be so sure about PA. There are over 1.4 million outstanding absentee votes to be tallied, most of these from the greater Philadelphia area, Pittsburgh and (usually) safe blue areas. Probably won't have a result until Friday.

[Sandydragon]

BBC news have just talked though the Biden route to victory, mirroring what we have come up with. We should pimp our services out.

[Sandydragon]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

[Which Tyler]

My PA prediction is red, but close enough for an automatic recount.
It's going to narrow, but seems to be on track to be too close to call. 10 hours ago, Biden needed about ,75% of the remaining votes. Now he needs about 75% or the remaining votes.


Biden extends Michigan to 32564 with 92% counted. I expect him to push over 50%

[Sandydragon]

My PA prediction is red, but close enough for an automatic recount.
It's going to narrow, but seems to be on track to be too close to call. 10 hours ago, Biden needed about ,75% of the remaining votes. Now he needs about 75% or the remaining votes.


Biden extends Michigan to 32564 with 92% counted. I expect him to push over 50%

Yeah, Pennsylvania is still too close to call, albeit Biden has a bit of a mountain to climb.

Both Michigan and Wisconsin are looking good for Biden. Biden's lead is increasing in Michigan, and the difference in Wisconsin is remaining the same with only 3% of the vote left to count. Ideally, Biden will win that state with a difference of greater than 1% to avoid a recount.

[paddy no 11]

yes to avoiding recounts - just provides a vacuum for conspiracy (violence) to fill

[Sandydragon]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

[Which Tyler]

Interesting.
Just hearing that North Carolina has about 250k ballots to count when they get around to it (after the late arrivals deadline), so that number can only go up.
Trump currently leading by 77k.

I've no idea how those 250k are expected to break, where they're from or how they were delivered.

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

He was last night (GMT) as well.
He's obviously completely fallen off the Trump Train


Georgia's numbers just changed, didn't catch what to, bit narrower than when I summarised at lunchtime

[paddy no 11]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

[morepork]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

It's going to take a few days boss.

[Which Tyler]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

Declared by?

CNN and AP haven't yet

[Sandydragon]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

It's going to take a few days boss.

It's something to keep us all interested in lockdown!

[morepork]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

That guy is a cartoon character. How does he get paid to be a cartoon character?


and, how the fuck is this thing so close?

[Sandydragon]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

Declared by?

CNN and AP haven't yet

BBC just stated that Michigan is still counting tens of thousands of votes and will have an 'unofficial' result by the end of the day. Currently Biden has a 33K majority.

[Sandydragon]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

That guy is a cartoon character. How does he get paid to be a cartoon character?


and, how the fuck is this thing so close?

You tell me mate, but I'm fucked if I understand why this is even a contest!!

Arguably, on the popular vote side its not that close (or it won't be) so you do have to question the Electoral College. That said the fact that Trump has increased his number of votes is baffling and concerning.

[Mikey Brown]

Just watched a bit of BBC's rolling coverage. It's insane how openly they talk about the drama and excitement that comes with such a tight election race. You expect that shit in America, but I thought over here we'd at least pretend that this isn't meant to be entertainment?

[Mikey Brown]

And why does the fact the popular vote isn't as close make any difference to the validity of the electoral college? Whether you agree with the logic of it or not, that's kind of the point?