RugbyRebels

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

yep, wayne county etc could swing it totally.

That's the only hope left, I think.

Wisconsin seems to have narrowed towards Trump as well. Brown county, appropriately could swing it back to Trump.

Banquo wrote:Wisconsin seems to have narrowed towards Trump as well. Brown county, appropriately could swing it back to Trump.

That is scarily tight.

The media coverage is interesting and it seems like the Granuiad haven't learnt any of their lessons and are saying it'll be tough for Trump to win...

I don't see how it's anything but extraordinarily tight, which is scary.

Stom wrote:The media coverage is interesting and it seems like the Granuiad haven't learnt any of their lessons and are saying it'll be tough for Trump to win...

I don't see how it's anything but extraordinarily tight, which is scary.

Cos journalists are innumerate

Digby wrote:I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja


ETA. Although would sane Americans want to come here given our shift Trumpwards? It's like a refugee in the 1930s leaving Germany to settle down in Spain.

Puja wrote:

Digby wrote:I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja

We didn't take into account certain slurs and just how terribly ingrained they are into the psyche of older and rural Americans as well as Latinos...

I'm talking "socialist". Jeez.

In honour of Michigan with the hope of them being the key to a Biden presidency, a theme song.


Margin is now 12k...

Zhivago wrote:In honour of Michigan with the hope of them being the key to a Biden presidency, a theme song.

Its definitely them- big swing. If Wayne County carries on its current trend, I think Biden wins.

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:In honour of Michigan with the hope of them being the key to a Biden presidency, a theme song.

Its definitely them- big swing. If Wayne County carries on its current trend, I think Biden wins.

Then all the focus will switch to Nevada

Stick a fork in it lads - Biden has it won

paddy no 11 wrote:Stick a fork in it lads - Biden has it won

I think so. But very close.

Zhivago wrote:Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

Detroit to win it for Biden perhaps?

Currently Michigan is:

2406691 Trump
2379293 Biden

86% of the vote counted, a majority of 27398 according to the BBC.

Banquo wrote:Wisconsin seems to have narrowed towards Trump as well. Brown county, appropriately could swing it back to Trump.

Biden is ahead by just under 21000 votes with 97% of the votes counted.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

Detroit to win it for Biden perhaps?

Currently Michigan is:

2406691 Trump
2379293 Biden

86% of the vote counted, a majority of 27398 according to the BBC.

link?

edit: nvm found it

indeed still a way off

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:In honour of Michigan with the hope of them being the key to a Biden presidency, a theme song.

Its definitely them- big swing. If Wayne County carries on its current trend, I think Biden wins.

Then all the focus will switch to Nevada

Biden 8000 votes up with 86% of the vote counted.

It’s incredible how many people seem to be shocked that this is close.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote: Its definitely them- big swing. If Wayne County carries on its current trend, I think Biden wins.

Then all the focus will switch to Nevada

Biden 8000 votes up with 86% of the vote counted.

For a minute there, I thought you meant that new results had come through from Michigan to put Biden into the lead!

Puja

One thing that is very interesting is how the voting patterns absolutely ape voting in Hungary, Poland, Brazil, Turkey, the UK...

Absolutely 100% ape. All cities vote Democrat, all hicks vote Republican.

It's one of the reasons why Budapest and a number of other CEE cities have signed an agreement to work together on collecting EU funds independently of their governments.

Puja wrote:

Digby wrote:I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja


ETA. Although would sane Americans want to come here given our shift Trumpwards? It's like a refugee in the 1930s leaving Germany to settle down in Spain.

You're not the only one.

Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

fivepointer wrote:Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Stom wrote:

fivepointer wrote:Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Worst result would surely be a Trump win.