RugbyRebels

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 pm**

Will there be a Trump 2024?

Posted: **Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:40 pm**

Nobody seems to think Florida has gone blue, which is a shame as that would be goodnight Irene early doors

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:13 am**

Digby wrote:Nobody seems to think Florida has gone blue, which is a shame as that would be goodnight Irene early doors

Far too early for anyone to be making that kind of prediction based on anything more than guesswork. Interesting stat on Florida from Nate Silver:

It looks as though Republicans will wind up with around a net +2 percent on [voters based on] party registration in Florida. That’s not terrible for them, and they reversed a slight Democratic disadvantage based on early and absentee voting. But it’s also not great. Based on the partisan splits in recent polls of Florida, I estimated that — because Biden is doing better among independents in most polls of the state and gets somewhat more crossover voters — the breakeven point for a Trump win was about R +3.5 in Florida. That is, if Republicans led in turnout by 3.5 points or more, Trump would be the favorite to win; otherwise Biden would be. We’ll probably end up just to the Biden side of the line. With that said, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Some polls in Florida showed Biden with big leaders among independents in Florida, while in others he was running evenly with Trump.

Puja

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:17 am**

Even the Biden camp are going with the we lost Florida line, and they're uber buoyant right now

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:44 am**

Digby wrote:Even the Biden camp are going with the we lost Florida line, and they're uber buoyant right now

Yeah, I think you're right. Looks like Biden's lost too much of the Latino vote to Trump's socialist "slur".

Puja

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:24 am**

Anyone else a bit nervous at the moment. It feels much tighter than the polls suggested (sounds familiar).

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:36 am**

It will take till the end of the week. PA were only allowed to start counting mail ins today. At least 8 counties will not start tallying mail until tomorrow. another pint?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:16 am**

It's all on Pennsylvania

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:42 am**

Trump says he's won before the votes are counted !...
no wonder Washington's boarded up - he's changing the rules..(but does have a maj. in the Supreme Court.)

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:04 am**

Galfon wrote:Trump says he's won before the votes are counted !...
no wonder Washington's boarded up - he's changing the rules..(but does have a maj. in the Supreme Court.)

This is the nightmare scenario. He gets the court to discuss whether voter fraud is too high with postal votes and they are struck off. Even if the court decides that the rate of fraud is not substantially different to other methods, it will be a rallying cry to the nutters.

I wonder why anyone bothers paying for opinion polls anymore?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:27 am**

Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:36 am**

Banquo wrote:Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?

If he's winning postal votes by 3 or 4 to 1 then yes

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:37 am**

paddy no 11 wrote:
Banquo wrote:Pollsters lose bigly. Biden should still win, right?
If he's winning postal votes by 3 or 4 to 1 then yes

Let’s hope that’s true then otherwise this ain’t going to be pretty.

Actually it ain’t going to be pretty regardless. But at least we might get rid of Trump.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:40 am**

Pollsters might not have accounted correctly for the upturn in voting. Normally when people say they don't usually vote they don't vote, here that isn't so consistently the case and Trump on the back of strong work from the GOP has added to the number of people who voted for him in 2016. I say strong work from the GOP as being the GOP there's a decent chance they did this going door to door in a pandemic, so swings and roundabouts.

The USA simply has an awful lot of deplorables, as we're usually a few years behind them that's not great news

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:44 am**

That was about a level 5 rattled fro trump in the speech, he just about stopped short of a meltdown

Arizona is a big flip for biden

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:53 am**

Cindy McCain (former wife of John) will be very much relieved, even though she dislike's a lot of Joe Biden's politics. She entered into the fray in this election to encourage traditional GOP voters to turn out for Biden, and Arizona is job done on that score

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:06 am**

This is the worst possible outcome for people...

Trump winning before the big early votes are counted in Penn and Georgia...Biden probably winning after they're counted... That's going to be a big issue.

I'm very glad I'm not there. Though the world needs a Biden win for sanity.

Hell, it influences Brexit, it influences Hungary, Poland, Belarus...

This is the biggest single election in history.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:12 am**

We always tend to think elections in our times are the biggest

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:25 am**

Wisconsin in 30 minutes....its going to be bigly

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:33 am**

paddy no 11 wrote:Wisconsin in 30 minutes....its going to be bigly

BBC showing that Wisconsin is still likely to go red, although only 84% of votes counted. And is Arizona confirmed as blue?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:37 am**

So the Times is showing Arizona as blue despite a good number of votes not yet counted.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:44 am**

AFP (guardian) is saying arizona has been declared

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:13 am**

BBC now showing Wisconsin as leaning Blue.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:14 am**

I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 251 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:15 am**

North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

RugbyRebels

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