Brexit delayed

[Digby]

I'll put my tin hat on

[Sandydragon]

And again we come back to a badly planned referendum which didn't actually give clear direction on the type of brexit the country wanted.

A magic one that maintains trade as is with Europe, frees us of any obligations, gives us access to other markets around the world on a faster and more favourable basis than than the EU would achieve, will reduce migration, reduce house prices for kids/first time buyers clearing out all the migrants, but will not drop house values for the middle classes, will not impact our ability to meet public service and pension provisions, frees up cash even, will make our military stronger, will make our grass greener whilst also seeing more sunshine.... I don't think anyone voted to restore the empire, but you never know.

The campaign was about rhetoric, the reality is about annoying detail.

The campaign was about some overly privileged public schoolboys playing fun political games with people's lives and then running away in the hope everyone would forget.
If you've got squillions of Daddies money in your bank account, tax-payer funded private healthcare for life and a huge pension pot.......the lives and travails of ordinary folk must seem pretty dull.

Utter claptrap. Some of the prominent leave campaigners were posh types, the sort you dislike. Others weren't. And there were plenty of rich people on the remain side too.

[Mellsblue]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

[Sandydragon]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

[Digby]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

I had a very cheap weekend in Valencia which was bought a while back. The missus managed to get an ear infection and spent the time lying on the bed with brown goo coming out of her ear. And I alternated between watching TV with a beer to sitting out on the veranda with a beer, with some time spent fetching a cup of tea or going for a swim in the pool. Never remotely got as far as a restaurant , she said I could head of by myself and she'd be okay on her own, but even I'm not that stupid

[Which Tyler]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

Yeah, it's almost like you used to get E15 for a tenner, instead of E10

[Mellsblue]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

I had a very cheap weekend in Valencia which was bought a while back. The missus managed to get an ear infection and spent the time lying on the bed with brown goo coming out of her ear. And I alternated between watching TV with a beer to sitting out on the veranda with a beer, with some time spent fetching a cup of tea or going for a swim in the pool. Never remotely got as far as a restaurant , she said I could head of by myself and she'd be okay on her own, but even I'm not that stupid

You should've gone. I've heard rumours of a man who once sat in first class whilst making the rest of his family sit in economy. If you think that is unbelievable, I believe he somehow lived to tell the tale.

[Mellsblue]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

Yeah, it's almost like you used to get E15 for a tenner, instead of E10

I fail to believe you could get Brian Harvey for a tenner, let alone the whole 'band'.

[Sandydragon]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

I had a very cheap weekend in Valencia which was bought a while back. The missus managed to get an ear infection and spent the time lying on the bed with brown goo coming out of her ear. And I alternated between watching TV with a beer to sitting out on the veranda with a beer, with some time spent fetching a cup of tea or going for a swim in the pool. Never remotely got as far as a restaurant , she said I could head of by myself and she'd be okay on her own, but even I'm not that stupid

Yeah. Thats right up there with 'don't spend too much on me this Christmas'.

[kk67]

Bugger me France is now expensive. Well, it's now roughly the same cost of living as the UK.

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

Yeah, it's almost like you used to get E15 for a tenner, instead of E10

And yet there has been precious little media coverage of just how badly the pound has devalued since the vote.
It's almost as if some UK businessmen are quietly profiting from the pound being devalued. But I'm sure that's just conspiracy nonsense.

[Digby]

So is Spain. Just got back from a week in Catalonia and was surprised by how pricey the shops were. That exchange rate is a killer.

Yeah, it's almost like you used to get E15 for a tenner, instead of E10

And yet there has been precious little media coverage of just how badly the pound has devalued since the vote.
It's almost as if some UK businessmen are quietly profiting from the pound being devalued. But I'm sure that's just conspiracy nonsense.

Certainly a nonsense.

Of course some people have profited and others not, it's part of how the economy is supposed to work. And tbh lots of countries actively seek a low(er) value for their currency, it's in many ways simply different rather than better/worse

[Sandydragon]

Aye, it's good for exports and tourism. Not so good for us going abroad. Swings and roundabouts.

[Digby]

Aye, it's good for exports and tourism. Not so good for us going abroad. Swings and roundabouts.

Though it's not maybe good news for exporters who import goods/materials/services at some stage of their process. Luckily some people have a notion of how to simplify a world of global trade and interdependence, they've not given any actual details yet on how it works, but Boris et al seem very confident

[Sandydragon]

Aye, it's good for exports and tourism. Not so good for us going abroad. Swings and roundabouts.

Though it's not maybe good news for exporters who import goods/materials/services at some stage of their process. Luckily some people have a notion of how to simplify a world of global trade and interdependence, they've not given any actual details yet on how it works, but Boris et al seem very confident

Indeed. Perhaps one ray of light is th announcement by labour that they support retention of singl market a transition period. If enough conservative MPs support that, the hard brexiteers will be high and dry.

Only snags are the internal disaster that is th Conservative party and how far anyone trusts corbyn, who only recently was very anti this arrangement.

[Digby]

Aye, it's good for exports and tourism. Not so good for us going abroad. Swings and roundabouts.

Though it's not maybe good news for exporters who import goods/materials/services at some stage of their process. Luckily some people have a notion of how to simplify a world of global trade and interdependence, they've not given any actual details yet on how it works, but Boris et al seem very confident

Indeed. Perhaps one ray of light is th announcement by labour that they support retention of singl market a transition period. If enough conservative MPs support that, the hard brexiteers will be high and dry.

Only snags are the internal disaster that is th Conservative party and how far anyone trusts corbyn, who only recently was very anti this arrangement.

But Labour are only saying they'd hold to the single market/customs union for some undefined transitional period, haven't said what would follow, and haven't said how they'd get the EU to agree to the transitional period or to what would follow. Labour like the Conservatives seems absolutely stuffed when it comes to knowing how to plot an actual course out of the quagmire absent of the EU allowing us to cherry pick which bits of the EU we'd like to stay involved in.

At this point I'd happily sign off on a Brexit tax that bills all costs of Brexit to those who voted for this shitfest, and bills them for future lost earnings. And on the off chance they're right then they can have a tax cut/rebate which I'd be missing out no. Obviously that's practically impossible even before any other considerations which would render it an unworkable piece of nonsense, but I'm certainly in a camp of you made this mess so you clear it up as, I've sod all interest in helping

[Zhivago]

If we leave the EU customs union then tariffs will be levied. Businesses outside the UK with global value chains including UK-produced intermediate products will be affected. Businesses in UK with global value chains will also be affected. The businesses outside the UK can shift their global value chains to avoid tariffs. Businesses in the UK will scarcely be able to, they would need to find ways to reduce their costs so as to remain competitive in the global market.

[Sandydragon]

No party seems to have a plan. Both labour and the Tories are split between those who liked and hated the EU, more so the conservatives but labours issues are exacerbated by the current leadership which is at odds with many if it's MPs.

The liberals want to rerun the referendum, it to be fair the vote was legit and ignoring the result, or running repeated referendums until we get the right result isn't democratic.

Personally I'd rather we just looked to join the EFTA and be done with it. We would have greater control of our sovereignty and that would probably be enough to sway a majority to back it. Hard brexit may be the most straight forward to implement, but the potential impact is hugely alarming.

[Sandydragon]

If we leave the EU customs market then tariffs will be levied. Businesses outside the UK with global value chains including UK-produced intermediate products will be affected. Businesses in UK with global value chains will also be affected. The businesses outside the UK can shift their global value chains to avoid tariffs. Businesses in the UK will scarcely be able to, they would need to find ways to reduce their costs so as to remain competitive in the global market.

Which will be difficult given that reducing costs in the U.K. wild meant repealing a lot of legislation. The most competitive solution is to ape Singapore.

[Zhivago]

If we leave the EU customs market then tariffs will be levied. Businesses outside the UK with global value chains including UK-produced intermediate products will be affected. Businesses in UK with global value chains will also be affected. The businesses outside the UK can shift their global value chains to avoid tariffs. Businesses in the UK will scarcely be able to, they would need to find ways to reduce their costs so as to remain competitive in the global market.

Which will be difficult given that reducing costs in the U.K. wild meant repealing a lot of legislation. The most competitive solution is to ape Singapore.

Could you explain in more detail?

[Digby]

No party seems to have a plan. Both labour and the Tories are split between those who liked and hated the EU, more so the conservatives but labours issues are exacerbated by the current leadership which is at odds with many if it's MPs.

The liberals want to rerun the referendum, it to be fair the vote was legit and ignoring the result, or running repeated referendums until we get the right result isn't democratic.

Personally I'd rather we just looked to join the EFTA and be done with it. We would have greater control of our sovereignty and that would probably be enough to sway a majority to back it. Hard brexit may be the most straight forward to implement, but the potential impact is hugely alarming.

Swiss EFTA or Norwegian EFTA?

The Swiss are outside the EEA but even they have to accept a lot of EU laws albeit not all the EU freedoms Norway takes on, and both positions seem anathema to May. Norway with a more accepting approach towards the EU has much more open access than the Swiss enjoy.

At this point i'd almost take either model, but I don't see how they're acceptable given the cost they'd entail and the freedom of movement. And both tbh look much worse than simply being in the EU

[Sandydragon]

No party seems to have a plan. Both labour and the Tories are split between those who liked and hated the EU, more so the conservatives but labours issues are exacerbated by the current leadership which is at odds with many if it's MPs.

The liberals want to rerun the referendum, it to be fair the vote was legit and ignoring the result, or running repeated referendums until we get the right result isn't democratic.

Personally I'd rather we just looked to join the EFTA and be done with it. We would have greater control of our sovereignty and that would probably be enough to sway a majority to back it. Hard brexit may be the most straight forward to implement, but the potential impact is hugely alarming.

Swiss EFTA or Norwegian EFTA?

The Swiss are outside the EEA but even they have to accept a lot of EU laws albeit not all the EU freedoms Norway takes on, and both positions seem anathema to May. Norway with a more accepting approach towards the EU has much more open access than the Swiss enjoy.

At this point i'd almost take either model, but I don't see how they're acceptable given the cost they'd entail and the freedom of movement. And both tbh look much worse than simply being in the EU

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

[Mellsblue]

No party seems to have a plan. Both labour and the Tories are split between those who liked and hated the EU, more so the conservatives but labours issues are exacerbated by the current leadership which is at odds with many if it's MPs.

The liberals want to rerun the referendum, it to be fair the vote was legit and ignoring the result, or running repeated referendums until we get the right result isn't democratic.

Personally I'd rather we just looked to join the EFTA and be done with it. We would have greater control of our sovereignty and that would probably be enough to sway a majority to back it. Hard brexit may be the most straight forward to implement, but the potential impact is hugely alarming.

Swiss EFTA or Norwegian EFTA?

The Swiss are outside the EEA but even they have to accept a lot of EU laws albeit not all the EU freedoms Norway takes on, and both positions seem anathema to May. Norway with a more accepting approach towards the EU has much more open access than the Swiss enjoy.

At this point i'd almost take either model, but I don't see how they're acceptable given the cost they'd entail and the freedom of movement. And both tbh look much worse than simply being in the EU

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

[Digby]

Swiss EFTA or Norwegian EFTA?

The Swiss are outside the EEA but even they have to accept a lot of EU laws albeit not all the EU freedoms Norway takes on, and both positions seem anathema to May. Norway with a more accepting approach towards the EU has much more open access than the Swiss enjoy.

At this point i'd almost take either model, but I don't see how they're acceptable given the cost they'd entail and the freedom of movement. And both tbh look much worse than simply being in the EU

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

That's a least two red lines to cross as regards freedom of movement and having the EU courts dictate to us. Swiss migration levels are way above ours, though there is their per capita EU contributions are something like 1/6th of ours. The thing about the bilateral agreements is the Swiss have fairly limited access to the EU and even then over 100 bilateral agreements, we'd have or want a lot more agreements, and anytime we failed to update changes the EU might want we'd unwind a lot of agreements which is stupidly complex.

There's also the Swiss tend to take the piss a bit when it comes to respecting a lot of EU rulings, to a degree they get away with it ''cause it's just not that important only being the Swiss, the UK isn't going to fly under the radar in the same way

[Owain Glyndwr]

Swiss EFTA or Norwegian EFTA?

The Swiss are outside the EEA but even they have to accept a lot of EU laws albeit not all the EU freedoms Norway takes on, and both positions seem anathema to May. Norway with a more accepting approach towards the EU has much more open access than the Swiss enjoy.

At this point i'd almost take either model, but I don't see how they're acceptable given the cost they'd entail and the freedom of movement. And both tbh look much worse than simply being in the EU

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

it took the Swiss decades to complete those bilateral agreements.

[Digby]

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

it took the Swiss decades to complete those bilateral agreements.

So a 20 year transitional agreement?