RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 2:41 pm Something going on potentially.

Cameron recalled from overseas trip early.
Shapps has been cancelling meetings.
Hunt pulled from media event scheduled for this evening.

Could it be a bollocking for a few cabinet members who haven't been supportive of Sunak?

Or could they be debating a July election?

Sunak has been very firmly asserting today that the election "won't be held until the second half of the year," with the implication that he means a long time away, so maybe he's attempting to catch Labour on the hop by making it early July and being technically accurate.

Maybe they're Telegraph readers. There was an article headlined "Labour poll lead shrinks as economy improves," and I was quite tickled to look at the actual numbers and discover that the "shrink" was from 18 points to 17 across two polls for the Telegraph, and was somewhat dampened by the poll before those two showing 16 points and the one before that showing 18. Almost as if it's statistical noise, rather than the start of the Sunak resurgence.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 2:52 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 2:41 pm Something going on potentially.

Cameron recalled from overseas trip early.
Shapps has been cancelling meetings.
Hunt pulled from media event scheduled for this evening.

Could it be a bollocking for a few cabinet members who haven't been supportive of Sunak?

Or could they be debating a July election?

Sunak has been very firmly asserting today that the election "won't be held until the second half of the year," with the implication that he means a long time away, so maybe he's attempting to catch Labour on the hop by making it early July and being technically accurate.

Maybe they're Telegraph readers. There was an article headlined "Labour poll lead shrinks as economy improves," and I was quite tickled to look at the actual numbers and discover that the "shrink" was from 18 points to 17 across two polls for the Telegraph, and was somewhat dampened by the poll before those two showing 16 points and the one before that showing 18. Almost as if it's statistical noise, rather than the start of the Sunak resurgence.

Puja

This all seems to be a choice between losing badly and losing catastrophically. Also the small boats numbers will increase in the summer as the weather improves. Maybe its a judgement call that the news is moderately positive and this could be a better time than later? Ministers dont just call off foreign trips and pull out of interviews with major TV presenter for no reason.

Make of this what you will, senior civil servants are expecting purdah to be implemented soon.

This observation on the BBC has tickled me:

A Tory rebel source tells the BBC that some letters calling for a no confidence vote in Rishi Sunak are being submitted.

The reported move came after one senior Conservative MP described the atmosphere in the tea room as “panic”.

(As a reminder, 15% of Conservative MPs must submit a letter before the party holds a leadership election - that would mean 52 letters are needed).

Rebel Tories were meeting in huddles after reports on BBC Newsnight last night and elsewhere that the prime minister may make an imminent announcement about a general election.

A leading Tory Brexiteer says an election now would be “madness”. Why go when the Conservatives are 20 points behind in the polls, goes the thinking.

Nobody was expecting this. “Everyone mortified,” another source tells me.

Many Tories appear to have been caught off-guard. They had thought the prime minister was thinking of holding an election in the autumn.

But it has became apparent that Sunak’s formulation - holding an election in the second half of the year - may be observed in the narrowest sense.

As a reminder, the second half of the year begins on 1 July.

Never mind surprising Labour with his "second half of the year" misdirection (and let's face it, there's no chance that Labour were ever going to be surprised; they've been poised in the blocks since the end of last year), Ready4Rish! is actually selling the dummy to his internal opposition and not giving them time to organise.

Puja

An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:27 pm An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

Listening to some of the coverage and the commentators are saying that right now is the sweet spot just after the Rwanda policy is law and Rishi can claim that he's brought in this deterrent to stop the small boats, and just before it becomes patently obvious that it's not going to offer any kind of deterrence or operate in any kind of functional fashion. He's not fighting Labour, he's trying to defend against Reform.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:27 pm An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

looks like its happening. Weird. Suspect he's just had enough of his own party.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:27 pm An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

As I understand it, the thinking is:

The Euros might provide some positivity,
The first flights to Rwanda should happen prior to that,
The economic news is improving,
Its likely to be warmer so the older voter might be tempted out.

Puja wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:39 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:27 pm An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

Listening to some of the coverage and the commentators are saying that right now is the sweet spot just after the Rwanda policy is law and Rishi can claim that he's brought in this deterrent to stop the small boats, and just before it becomes patently obvious that it's not going to offer any kind of deterrence or operate in any kind of functional fashion. He's not fighting Labour, he's trying to defend against Reform.

Puja

Totally correct. Labour might beat him but Reform will destroy the Tory vote.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:58 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:39 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 4:27 pm An 'early' election seems too good to be true. If they go for it, great, the sooner they're out of the driving seat the better. Labour will leap at the chance.

Listening to some of the coverage and the commentators are saying that right now is the sweet spot just after the Rwanda policy is law and Rishi can claim that he's brought in this deterrent to stop the small boats, and just before it becomes patently obvious that it's not going to offer any kind of deterrence or operate in any kind of functional fashion. He's not fighting Labour, he's trying to defend against Reform.

Puja

Totally correct. Labour might beat him but Reform will destroy the Tory vote.

just hope there isn't another UKIP style deal for 'more brexit'

Always worth posting this site up.
Here's my MP - everyone's is on there.

Actions (voting in Westminster) are always more important than words (campaign promises).
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10505 ... bury/votes

sunak getting drenched seems an apt metaphor

Well, I've had to apply for a postal vote for the first time as Sumak has shown MASSIVE CONTEMPT FOR THE PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND BY CALLING A VOTE DURING THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS (yes, that line is already, ALREADY being vomited into the airwaves by Nats) and it turns out I need to send my vote in by 5pm, 11 working days before the election, which is so clearly designed to catch people out . Pricks.

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 5:50 pm Well, I've had to apply for a postal vote for the first time as Sumak has shown MASSIVE CONTEMPT FOR THE PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND BY CALLING A VOTE DURING THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS (yes, that line is already, ALREADY being vomited into the airwaves by Nats) and it turns out I need to send my vote in by 5pm, 11 working days before the election, which is so clearly designed to catch people out . Pricks.

To be fair, they're not wrong. 50:50 whether it's a calculated decision because Sunak wants to suppress the Scots vote or whether he just didn't care about Scotland enough to know it was even a potential issue.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 6:11 pm

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 5:50 pm Well, I've had to apply for a postal vote for the first time as Sumak has shown MASSIVE CONTEMPT FOR THE PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND BY CALLING A VOTE DURING THE SUMMER HOLIDAYS (yes, that line is already, ALREADY being vomited into the airwaves by Nats) and it turns out I need to send my vote in by 5pm, 11 working days before the election, which is so clearly designed to catch people out . Pricks.

To be fair, they're not wrong. 50:50 whether it's a calculated decision because Sunak wants to suppress the Scots vote or whether he just didn't care about Scotland enough to know it was even a potential issue.

Puja

In theory it could be either of those, but they both attribute a greater degree of political intelligence to the decision than I am willing to concede. I think he just called it for 6 weeks hence as he wanted to catch Tory rebels on the hop and didn't think about anything else. To interpret that as a deliberate slight against Scotland feels, to me, like grievance seeking.

Speculation that Sunak called it rather than face a leadership challenge. Plausible I guess given the somewhat rushed announcement (outside, in the rain without an umbrella. Really sensible that)

Whatever the motivation, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that we have a chance in a few weeks to remove this disgracefully bad Government.

fivepointer wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 6:40 pm Speculation that Sunak called it rather than face a leadership challenge. Plausible I guess given the somewhat rushed announcement (outside, in the rain without an umbrella. Really sensible that)

Whatever the motivation, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that we have a chance in a few weeks to remove this disgracefully bad Government.

It's not entirely clear if the letters of no confidence preceded the speculation that a general election was to be called or were a result of that speculation. Either is possible. It felt a bit rushed, but then again it might have been a preplanned option if the financial news was sufficiently promising.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 8:40 pm

fivepointer wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 6:40 pm Speculation that Sunak called it rather than face a leadership challenge. Plausible I guess given the somewhat rushed announcement (outside, in the rain without an umbrella. Really sensible that)

Whatever the motivation, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that we have a chance in a few weeks to remove this disgracefully bad Government.

It's not entirely clear if the letters of no confidence preceded the speculation that a general election was to be called or were a result of that speculation. Either is possible. It felt a bit rushed, but then again it might have been a preplanned option if the financial news was sufficiently promising.

My feeling is that Sunak wouldn't cut his premiership short by 6 months if he didn't have to. But we may never know. Still, if it was a bunch of disgruntled Tory MPs I say, well done, you'll get your leadership election soon.

The title of this thread is correct again!

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 10:40 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 8:40 pm

fivepointer wrote: ↑Wed May 22, 2024 6:40 pm Speculation that Sunak called it rather than face a leadership challenge. Plausible I guess given the somewhat rushed announcement (outside, in the rain without an umbrella. Really sensible that)

Whatever the motivation, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that we have a chance in a few weeks to remove this disgracefully bad Government.

It's not entirely clear if the letters of no confidence preceded the speculation that a general election was to be called or were a result of that speculation. Either is possible. It felt a bit rushed, but then again it might have been a preplanned option if the financial news was sufficiently promising.

My feeling is that Sunak wouldn't cut his premiership short by 6 months if he didn't have to. But we may never know. Still, if it was a bunch of disgruntled Tory MPs I say, well done, you'll get your leadership election soon.

I'm coming round to that way of thinking. Cameron pulling out of a foreign trip isnt something you do for fun. Albania isnt a major power but its still a huge slap in the face. Also, I was listening to 'The News Agents' podcast this morning and they mentioned that there isnt a complete list of Conservative candidates for every constituency yet. That's a major embarassment for how well prepared the party machinery is for this. Admittedly, those seasts are probably low chance of winning, but it would be a huge problem not to field a candidate everywhere. Equally if they try to rush candidates in and there's any dirt on them that isnt picked up by due diligence, that too will be embarrassing.

There was also the comment made that some of the council and mayoral losses might have been avoided if the General Election was held in May. Many voters cant be bothered with those elections but might have got the core vote out if the GE had been the same day. Im not sure I agree with this, but it is a fair point that the turnout would have been higher and that could have affected some outcomes. If nothign else, Sunak is making his local party activists get stuck into campaigning again straight after a major kicking.

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

Hopefully??? this will be the last we see of Farage in this campaign, but what is it with this guy? Okay I get that he's too lazy to want to be an actual MP and/or doesn't want to be seen to fail miserably to win a seat, but why is he not even helping launch his own party's campaign? Has he been paid off? (And probably not for the first time.)

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 12:33 pm Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 1:50 pm Hopefully??? this will be the last we see of Farage in this campaign, but what is it with this guy? Okay I get that he's too lazy to want to be an actual MP and/or doesn't want to be seen to fail miserably to win a seat, but why is he not even helping launch his own party's campaign? Has he been paid off? (And probably not for the first time.)

Its a bit odd isnt it. I get that perhaps he doesnt want to be rejected for paarliament for the 9th (?) time. Maybe he has finally taken the hint. But as life presdient and owner of Reform UK, I would have expected him to have out in a shift promoting their cause. But he prefers to help Trump.

How much is Trump paying him - bearing in mind the quite real possibility Trump will be president next year? What promise has been made there? Or has Rishi offered him a peerage in his departure nominations just to keep his head down. Somethign doesnt read right about this.

AS it stands, this is probably better news for the Conservatives from whom Farage would have peeled a lot of votes. It doesnt make their life any better right now, they are still 20 odd points behind but saves the mthe embarassment of falling into third place.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 1:52 pm

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Thu May 23, 2024 12:33 pm Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

They all do it. Total bullshit.