RugbyRebels

Which Tyler wrote:NB: I haven't personally checked the veracity of this, but it passes the sniff test, given that we know the national prediction is for a 6.7% decline. The source is usually very good at making sure it's accurate in what it posts.
And no, I don't know the figure for NI, nor why they're not included here.

Presumably the figures weren't done on the basid that it's now official UK Government policy to not give a shit about NI.

Puja

Puja wrote:Presumably the figures weren't done on the basid that it's now official UK Government policy to not give a shit about NI.

15 year projection isn't it? so they're probably predicting a unified Ireland by that time.
Mind you, they include Scotland, so there may be a lack of joined up thinking in there...

I won't get the chance to read this for a few hours yet - but it looks important: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 62106.html?

Which Tyler wrote:I won't get the chance to read this for a few hours yet - but it looks important: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 62106.html?

Two aims, to stop no deal and to give extra time for actual scrutiny. As is if Boris gets the deal approved tomorrow he could later yank it, and he wouldn't have needed to request an extension 'cause the Commons would have approved a deal. And actually having time to scrutinise the deal should be wanted by everyone

Letwin amendment passes, which means there's no vote tonight, so the extension request has to go in by 11 tonight (unless he wants to lose another court case, which will be a slam dunk for criminality, not "unlawfulness).

So, does a VONC go through the moment an extension request is made?
The delay has been (ostensibly) to force the request, and the request wil be allowed if parliament is rebelling like that (but may not just to let us talk about it)

Which Tyler wrote:Letwin amendment passes, which means there's no vote tonight, so the extension request has to go in by 11 tonight (unless he wants to lose another court case, which will be a slam dunk for criminality, not "unlawfulness).

So, does a VONC go through the moment an extension request is made?
The delay has been (ostensibly) to force the request, and the request wil be allowed if parliament is rebelling like that (but may not just to let us talk about it)

I’d think the EU would have to grant the extension first, and they are saying (but said before and ignored it) they would need grounds to do so eg an election or referendum. I think Boris is saying he won’t write the letter, but ‘Parliament’ will, whatever that means. We really are a joke.

So no vote on the new WA. You couldn’t make this up.

They were attempting to bring a bill they'd already voted on, I assume Boris and Cummings did this for the headlines in the tabloids

Digby wrote:They were attempting to bring a bill they'd already voted on, I assume Boris and Cummings did this for the headlines in the tabloids

So you are saying that vote passed the WA?

Banquo wrote:

Digby wrote:They were attempting to bring a bill they'd already voted on, I assume Boris and Cummings did this for the headlines in the tabloids

So you are saying that vote passed the WA?

No, but it did give Parliament's response to what the Government proposed, and the Government isn't expected to just bring the same bill back in the same session without amendment. I did wonder if Bercow might let this slide today, but it's not unusual behaviour from the Speaker, so much so I'm sure it was expected by B

Digby wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Digby wrote:They were attempting to bring a bill they'd already voted on, I assume Boris and Cummings did this for the headlines in the tabloids

So you are saying that vote passed the WA?

No, but it did give Parliament's response to what the Government proposed, and the Government isn't expected to just bring the same bill back in the same session without amendment. I did wonder if Bercow might let this slide today, but it's not unusual behaviour from the Speaker, so much so I'm sure it was expected by B

Dunno seems he’s been Letwinned. Gonna get very messy again

This is all hugely depressing. Particularly the sight of Ken Clarke asking important questions but preceding them with an assurance that he will vote for the deal no matter what. In fact, I struggle to understand how any of the more moderate Tories or ex-Tories can support BJ.

On a different point, it may be that the opposition never had the numbers for a government of national unity (I don't know for sure), but by god they must be furious that Corbyn didn't show willingness to support a caretaker PM other than himself.

I've really lost the will to keep paying attention to this recently, but is all the labour support of Johnson's deal a shock or were we just waiting for this all along? I really can't tell who is on Corbyn's side even within his own party.

Mikey Brown wrote:I've really lost the will to keep paying attention to this recently, but is all the labour support of Johnson's deal a shock or were we just waiting for this all along? I really can't tell who is on Corbyn's side even within his own party.

There are only 6 of them (or were only 6 against the Letwin amendment):

Barron, rh Sir Kevin
Campbell, Mr Ronnie
Fitzpatrick, Jim
Flint, rh Caroline
Hoey, Kate
Mann, John

But even that small a rebellion might tip the balance. It's fair to say I'm not impressed with this bunch.

Well that was an interesting day, at least parliament stayed strong on the idea we shouldn't undertake major constitutional change without at least pretending we're using more than the back of a fag packet. Be nice if the government would issue the EIA mind

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:I've really lost the will to keep paying attention to this recently, but is all the labour support of Johnson's deal a shock or were we just waiting for this all along? I really can't tell who is on Corbyn's side even within his own party.

There are only 6 of them (or were only 6 against the Letwin amendment):

Barron, rh Sir Kevin
Campbell, Mr Ronnie
Fitzpatrick, Jim
Flint, rh Caroline
Hoey, Kate
Mann, John

But even that small a rebellion might tip the balance. It's fair to say I'm not impressed with this bunch.

Those 6 (and Corbyn) have always been very pro-Brexit, there another dozen or so who are also pro-Brexit, enough to risk a light whipping, but less committedly so than the 6 above. Flint and Joey might as well switch to the Garage Ego-Party
5-20 labour rebels s unsurprising on any Brexit vote. They'd all vote with the whip in any VONC, however.

Puja wrote:



Puja

Mrs Liz used to work with Bambos. Not a bad bloke. Always got his round in.

The BBC is reporting that if the EU grant an extension then Boris will try for another election. Apparently it’s impossible to get a bill passed because this parliament is broken. Even though MPs did vote in favour of his deal last night, the issue being the timing.

Trumpian petulance here? And do we think the he will get the numbers for a GE? Unless Labour think they have a better chance now than after a deal is passed.

Sandydragon wrote:The BBC is reporting that if the EU grant an extension then Boris will try for another election. Apparently it’s impossible to get a bill passed because this parliament is broken. Even though MPs did vote in favour of his deal last night, the issue being the timing.

Trumpian petulance here? And do we think the he will get the numbers for a GE? Unless Labour think they have a better chance now than after a deal is passed.

He'll surely get a GE after an extension. Apart from the fact that that is what everyone says they've been waiting for, it's the best time for it from an opposition perspective - Boris has just broken his "dead in a ditch" promise to leave on Halloween and he's plumped for a (crap) deal, both of which will lose him votes to Farage.

Puja

The main problem getting an election is it's not the best time for Labour, but even if Corbyn bottles it the SNP should be able to get Boris over the line. My main problem with an election is I don't think it really resolves anything around Brexit, but any such concerns will be trampled by the political process

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:The BBC is reporting that if the EU grant an extension then Boris will try for another election. Apparently it’s impossible to get a bill passed because this parliament is broken. Even though MPs did vote in favour of his deal last night, the issue being the timing.

Trumpian petulance here? And do we think the he will get the numbers for a GE? Unless Labour think they have a better chance now than after a deal is passed.

He'll surely get a GE after an extension. Apart from the fact that that is what everyone says they've been waiting for, it's the best time for it from an opposition perspective - Boris has just broken his "dead in a ditch" promise to leave on Halloween and he's plumped for a (crap) deal, both of which will lose him votes to Farage.

Puja

This is probably true unless the opposition are worried at the polls AND can get a majority to add a referendum to the deal.

A huge amount hangs on how the public feels about BJ missing his deadline. I suspect the papers will continue to support him and blame everyone else for the extension, but that may not stop him taking a hit in the polls, especially if Farage lays into him and gets his usual TV airtime.

Digby wrote:The main problem getting an election is it's not the best time for Labour, but even if Corbyn bottles it the SNP should be able to get Boris over the line. My main problem with an election is I don't think it really resolves anything around Brexit, but any such concerns will be trampled by the political process

This - though there's also a potential problem with the newly independent MPs who'd have to actively vote themselves out of a job.
There's also the principal - if you can overturn FPTA with a simple 50%+1 vote, then te FTPA might as well not exist - or not as a 2/3 requirement anyway, as it's utterly toothless.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:The BBC is reporting that if the EU grant an extension then Boris will try for another election. Apparently it’s impossible to get a bill passed because this parliament is broken. Even though MPs did vote in favour of his deal last night, the issue being the timing.

Trumpian petulance here? And do we think the he will get the numbers for a GE? Unless Labour think they have a better chance now than after a deal is passed.

He'll surely get a GE after an extension. Apart from the fact that that is what everyone says they've been waiting for, it's the best time for it from an opposition perspective - Boris has just broken his "dead in a ditch" promise to leave on Halloween and he's plumped for a (crap) deal, both of which will lose him votes to Farage.

Puja

This is probably true unless the opposition are worried at the polls AND can get a majority to add a referendum to the deal.

A huge amount hangs on how the public feels about BJ missing his deadline. I suspect the papers will continue to support him and blame everyone else for the extension, but that may not stop him taking a hit in the polls, especially if Farage lays into him and gets his usual TV airtime.

Apparently older Conservative supports are less likely to vote in the winter.