Brexit delayed

[Which Tyler]

Total Leave. Remain
BP- 31.6% 31%. 0.6%
LD- 20.3%. 3%. 17.2%.
Lab-14.1%. 3.5%. 10.6%.
Gr- 12.1%. 2.4%. 9.6%
Con-9.1%. 4.5%. 4.5% (using WT’s source not the Prof)
SNP-3.6%. 1.2%. 2.4%

CHUK and UKIP cancel each other out and I’m not sure how to apportion PC. The SNP data is also slightly out of date so may have moved.


Leave = 45.6%
Remain= 44.9%

I get slightly different figures, but the conclusion is basically the same - absolutely nothing in it; less than voted for "other" quite possibly less than were turned away for being foreign despite being registered to vote.

EU votes.jpg

I went with giving CHUK and UKIP the same split as Brexit; and Plaid the same split as SNP - IIRC that "1/3 of SNP voters want to leave the EU was fromthe 2017GE. a] I'm not sure accurate a 1/3 that was; and b] I think that the SNP campaigned harder for remain this time than they did then, so along with the new-Farage party, I plumped on 30% for them as a decent approximation.

[Mellsblue]

So, in conclusion:
A) Spin from both sides that they have a mandate due to these results is BS.
B) Elections aren’t a good way of solving an issue unless all parties are single issue parties.
C) Neither the politicians nor us mere mortals have a solution
D) As a country we are no further forward on the issue than we were 3 years ago
E) People don’t read or, at best, ignore manifestos
F) We’re all doomed.

[Which Tyler]

Tory leadership just hotted up - this was always a possibility, but...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/c ... V2VJNgXdqY

Boris Johnson is to go on trial for allegedly “lying and misleading the British public” about the consequences of Brexit.

A judge summonsed the Conservative MP to appear in court after a man brought a private prosecution over claims that the cost of EU membership was £350m a week.

District Judge Margot Coleman threw out arguments by Mr Johnson’s lawyers that the case was a “vexatious” attempt to undermine the result of the 2016 referendum.

A written judgment handed down on Wednesday said: “Having considered all the relevant factors I am satisfied that this is a proper case to issue the summons as requested for the three offences as drafted.

“The charges are indictable only. This means the proposed defendant will be required to attend this court for a preliminary hearing, and the case will then be sent to the crown court for trial.”

[Mellsblue]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

[Which Tyler]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

This ones been rattling around for about 6 months now collecting cash, and going through due process - timing is May's (whether deliberate or not).
Agreed though, far too many candidates at the moment - I'm sure plenty of them know they have no chance whatsoever, but are using it to get some name recognition for a planned future run.
I'm pretty sure he'll be cleared (given that it was a non-binding election and thereofre not subject to the usual electoral rules - hence it hasn't laready been legally required to be re-run), but it's a distraction he really doesn't need

More leadership candidates than MEPs

[Mellsblue]

Tbh, we could do with reducing the number of candidates before the contest starts. It’s ridiculous and I believe there are still some waiting to declare.
The timing seems, um, convenient and a good 98% of politicians must now be soiling themselves.

This ones been rattling around for about 6 months now collecting cash, and going through due process - timing is May's (whether deliberate or not)
Agreed though, far too many candidates at the moment - I'm sure plenty of them know they have no chance whatsoever, but are using it to get some name recognition for a planned future run.

More leadership candidates than MEPs

Ah, ok. I wonder if Theresa’s donation tipped it over the threshold.
Any more and we’ll have more candidates than total votes last Thursday.

[Which Tyler]

Ah, ok. I wonder if Theresa’s donation tipped it over the threshold.
Any more and we’ll have more candidates than total votes last Thursday.

[Digby]

Jail doesn't bother Boris, at least it didn't in the case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, so if he's consistent he'll probably make a faux pas which would extend any jail term he's handed for no good reason.

[Mellsblue]

Would love to see his testimony.

[Digby]

It would probably help if Boris was required to make any public comments under oath

[Banquo]

Is Gove also under scrutiny, and Gisella Stuart?

Farage sadly can't be touched on this.

[Mellsblue]

The ridiculous thing is if Vote Leave had used the, I think, correct-ish £270mil a week it sends the same message. Most people they are targeting aren’t suddenly going to think ‘well, that’s not very much’.

[Which Tyler]

Yup, it was a pointless lie

[Digby]

The ridiculous thing is if Vote Leave had used the, I think, correct-ish £270mil a week it sends the same message. Most people they are targeting aren’t suddenly going to think ‘well, that’s not very much’.

The bigger question is why when all's said and done and the real figure is much larger and works substantially in our favour that 52% still thought bollocks to that we'll be richer by taking action that makes us measurably worse off

[Mellsblue]

The ridiculous thing is if Vote Leave had used the, I think, correct-ish £270mil a week it sends the same message. Most people they are targeting aren’t suddenly going to think ‘well, that’s not very much’.

The bigger question is why when all's said and done and the real figure is much larger and works substantially in our favour that 52% still thought bollocks to that we'll be richer by taking action that makes us measurably worse off

I thought you’d already decided it was because they’re thick and racist.

[morepork]

270 million squid for what?

[Banquo]

270 million squid for what?

Gross payment per week to be a member of the EU. Net figure is a lot lower (subsidies, rebates). Factor in trade benefits, collaborations, workers contributing to our economy and we are net winners. Ya'd think that was quite easy to sell.

[Stom]

I'm in the UK at the minute, arrived on Thursday (but didn't vote). And wow. The amount of misinformation surrounding Brexit is just insane. I think Owen Jones DID sum it up well about May'd departure garnering sympathy. Why does she deserve any sympathy? She failed at her job, and didn't fail at her job with her head held high...she just failed, badly.

I always say you should listen to what the other side say...but my family just shout COMMUNIST! over Corbyn, even when he actually makes valid points (which he does do, occasionally).

The papers are absolutely incredible. The headlines are all spun beyond belief to get people to believe a certain PoV, or maintain a certain set of beliefs. Even on the non-political stories. I just glanced at one in The Times headlined:

Addict Rapes and Kills Backpacker. (I'm paraphrasing).

Why addict? Why is that the lead word? Why is that important? It's the idea of creating conflict, of labeling people and of sowing discontent among communities.

[morepork]

270 million squid for what?

Gross payment per week to be a member of the EU. Net figure is a lot lower (subsidies, rebates). Factor in trade benefits, collaborations, workers contributing to our economy and we are net winners. Ya'd think that was quite easy to sell.

Is that figure based on GDP?

[Banquo]

270 million squid for what?

Gross payment per week to be a member of the EU. Net figure is a lot lower (subsidies, rebates). Factor in trade benefits, collaborations, workers contributing to our economy and we are net winners. Ya'd think that was quite easy to sell.

Is that figure based on GDP?

Formally- Each country's payment is divided into three parts: a fixed percentage of gross national income (GNI), customs duties collected on behalf of the EU (known as "traditional own resources") and a percentage of VAT income. Its a variable number, offset by an immediate rebate and subsidies as above. Looks like our net 'outlay' is c £9bn, which is frankly fck all against the benefits of membership, and fck all in terms of spending and GDP. This perspective has been somewhat lost.

Separately, the EU's 'books' are somewhat opaque which is something Eurosceptics do have a valid point over.

[Stom]

Gross payment per week to be a member of the EU. Net figure is a lot lower (subsidies, rebates). Factor in trade benefits, collaborations, workers contributing to our economy and we are net winners. Ya'd think that was quite easy to sell.

Is that figure based on GDP?

Formally- Each country's payment is divided into three parts: a fixed percentage of gross national income (GNI), customs duties collected on behalf of the EU (known as "traditional own resources") and a percentage of VAT income. Its a variable number, offset by an immediate rebate and subsidies as above. Looks like our net 'outlay' is c £9bn, which is frankly fck all against the benefits of membership, and fck all in terms of spending and GDP. This perspective has been somewhat lost.

Separately, the EU's 'books' are somewhat opaque which is something Eurosceptics do have a valid point over.

The EU really could make it easier to like them... But it does seem wedded to some old fashioned political principles...

[Banquo]

Is that figure based on GDP?

Formally- Each country's payment is divided into three parts: a fixed percentage of gross national income (GNI), customs duties collected on behalf of the EU (known as "traditional own resources") and a percentage of VAT income. Its a variable number, offset by an immediate rebate and subsidies as above. Looks like our net 'outlay' is c £9bn, which is frankly fck all against the benefits of membership, and fck all in terms of spending and GDP. This perspective has been somewhat lost.

Separately, the EU's 'books' are somewhat opaque which is something Eurosceptics do have a valid point over.

The EU really could make it easier to like them... But it does seem wedded to some old fashioned political principles...

It needs massive reform, more transparency, less bureaucracy and probably to ditch the euro and the daft bits of integration /running interference on other democracies (sovereignty bollocks) and membership criteria. Other than that, and uncooking the books, its fine

[Digby]

The ridiculous thing is if Vote Leave had used the, I think, correct-ish £270mil a week it sends the same message. Most people they are targeting aren’t suddenly going to think ‘well, that’s not very much’.

The bigger question is why when all's said and done and the real figure is much larger and works substantially in our favour that 52% still thought bollocks to that we'll be richer by taking action that makes us measurably worse off

I thought you’d already decided it was because they’re thick and racist.

I am in some rare instances not correct, or not wholly correct, so whilst it's overwhelmingly likely it's down to folk being thick and/or racist there's some small chance other factors are at work

[Mellsblue]

Addict Rapes and Kills Backpacker. (I'm paraphrasing).

Why addict? Why is that the lead word? Why is that important? It's the idea of creating conflict, of labeling people and of sowing discontent among communities.

Because it is the central pillar of his defence. It’s pretty crucial to the story. He also didn’t kill the backpacker. He just abducted her and repeatedly raped her over the course of a month, with express intention of getting her pregnant - he took her birth control pills off her - so that she couldn’t leave him.
I think the fact he’s an addict is central to the reporting of the case and, even if you disagree, I’m sure you feel little sympathy for him having his reputation dragged through the mud.

As for Corbyn making a valid point, was that the question he received from Stom who lives in Budapest that he raised at last week’s PMQs?

[morepork]

Jaysus. That got dark quickly.


John Cleese for PM anyone?