Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

Having now had the time to have a thorough browse on social media, there seems to be a lot of my arch-Remainer friends cutting up the results with the Conservatives not being classed pro-Brexit. I’m struggling to understand this. What is the logic with not including the Con’s (pathetic) % vote in the Leave total when comparing Remain v Leave?

I'm getting that a lot too, as well as occasional attempts to claim Labour votes as Remain. I think the logic is that votes for Labour and Conservatives "don't count" on Brexit because people voting for those were voting for reasons other than Brexit. Which, I can see their point, and I'd imagine there's a reasonable amount of truth in that, but you'd have to expect that the majority of Conservative voters in that election were also Leave fans.

In short, I believe the logic of parsing the data that way is that, "It proves the point that I want to make," as is true for 90% of all political data analysis.

Puja

Ah, ok. Should we not apply the same logic to all the non-single policy parties, such as Lib Dems and Green, then?!? I’m also certain I’ve read that just over a third of SNP voters voted Leave in the referendum. Either accept a party is Leave or Remain based on what their manifesto says or just don’t bother trying to make the comparison as it’s just guesswork.
To join in the sophistry, I was going to tweet/post an anti-union vs pro-union aggregate poll and lump the BP, UKIP, Con, SNP and CP % votes together. I decided not to as the consequences for me would definitely be negative. Either nobody would respond and I’d have a proof of my irrelevance or it would kick off and my life would become even more stressful.

[Puja]

To join in the sophistry, I was going to tweet/post an anti-union vs pro-union aggregate poll and lump the BP, UKIP, Con, SNP and CP % votes together. I decided not to as the consequences for me would definitely be negative. Either nobody would respond and I’d have a proof of my irrelevance or it would kick off and my life would become even more stressful.

If it makes you feel any better, it did just get a laugh from me.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Please note, you've been given the reasons, you just disagree with them and therefore want different reasons.

Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, PC, CHUK are united as parties, and actively campaign on a stance of stopping Brexit, and have no internal divisions about that policy.
Brexit Party and UKIP are united as parties, and actively campaign on a stance of leaving the EU on WTO terms, with noninternal divisions about that policy.

Conservatives are deeply riven as a party, and passively campaigned on a stance of a compromise Brexit that is virtually impossible, and have significant divisions about that policy - (seemingly) with about 50% wanting to go further and about 20% wanting to stop Brexit.
Labour are deeply riven as a party, and passively campaigned mom a stance of a compromise Brexit that is virtually impossi, andnhave significant division about that policy - (seemingly) with about 60% wanting to stop Brexit and about 10% wanting to leave on WTO terms. From what I understand, every individual labour candidate in the EU elections campaigned against the party leadership, on a pro-EU personal platform

They are also the 2 "main" parties, and, alongnwith Greens (environment) are the most likely to accrue votes for issues othe than Brexit. Given their stances, they are the least likely tomaccrue votes based on Brexit. I don't see anyone voting in these elections, who decide where to cast their ballot based on a party's position on Brexit, and actually voting for either of these parties.
Consequently, it makes far more sense to leave both out of the equation when it comes to analysing whether those votes were cast as pro- or anti- Brexit, but if you had to, you'd put Tory as pro and Labour as anti.
When I was doing my analysis, I played with putting them in a group of their own for a negotiated brexit, but my belief that no-one was voting for them BECAUSE of their stancemon Brexit meant that that seemed silly.
From what I've seen, the professional pollsters agree. Hell, Mells agreed as well when he told me to told me to do it the way the BBC did it, in reply to me doing it the way the BBC did it, but hours before the BBC did it that way.

You don't have to agre with my reasons, but you can't claim that you haven't seen them or that you don't understand them, or that they are not sincerely held. Or rather, you can, but that would just be your cognitive dissonance.

[Digby]

That's kind of mine and Mells's point - if we don't give them the option to vote for something else, then they may choose no deal just out of it being presented as an acceptable option, rather than batshit insane. And everything has to go through public vote now - we're not so much a democracy as we are a Simon Cowell show.


Puja

Then they choose it. I'm not saying there shouldn't be other options, but there should be an option for no deal.

And yes, we are on the way to the Hunger Games

Wait, what? What the hell are you arguing with us for then? Neither Mells nor I said there shouldn't be a No Deal option, just that there should be a Deal option on there as well, which sounds like what you've just said.

Puja

There could and perhaps even should be a deal option but I don't think there has to be a deal option, and I don't think you can say no to having a vote just because one didn't have a deal option.

[Mellsblue]

Please note, you've been given the reasons, you just disagree with them and therefore want different reasons.

Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, PC, CHUK are united as parties, and actively campaign on a stance of stopping Brexit, and have no internal divisions about that policy.
Brexit Party and UKIP are united as parties, and actively campaign on a stance of leaving the EU on WTO terms, with noninternal divisions about that policy.

Conservatives are deeply riven as a party, and passively campaigned on a stance of a compromise Brexit that is virtually impossible, and have significant divisions about that policy - (seemingly) with about 50% wanting to go further and about 20% wanting to stop Brexit.
Labour are deeply riven as a party, and passively campaigned mom a stance of a compromise Brexit that is virtually impossi, andnhave significant division about that policy - (seemingly) with about 60% wanting to stop Brexit and about 10% wanting to leave on WTO terms. From what I understand, every individual labour candidate in the EU elections campaigned against the party leadership, on a pro-EU personal platform

They are also the 2 "main" parties, and, alongnwith Greens (environment) are the most likely to accrue votes for issues othe than Brexit. Given their stances, they are the least likely tomaccrue votes based on Brexit. I don't see anyone voting in these elections, who decide where to cast their ballot based on a party's position on Brexit, and actually voting for either of these parties.
Consequently, it makes far more sense to leave both out of the equation when it comes to analysing whether those votes were cast as pro- or anti- Brexit, but if you had to, you'd put Tory as pro and Labour as anti.
When I was doing my analysis, I played with putting them in a group of their own for a negotiated brexit, but my belief that no-one was voting for them BECAUSE of their stancemon Brexit meant that that seemed silly.
From what I've seen, the professional pollsters agree. Hell, Mells agreed as well when he told me to told me to do it the way the BBC did it, in reply to me doing it the way the BBC did it, but hours before the BBC did it that way.

You don't have to agre with my reasons, but you can't claim that you haven't seen them or that you don't understand them, or that they are not sincerely held. Or rather, you can, but that would just be your cognitive dissonance.

I’ve been given your reasons but there are other people out there you think as you do so, I wanted their reasons, too.
For clarity, I didn’t tell you to do it the way the BBC did it. I merely posted the way they’d broken it down to show how different outlets are doing it differently, and by way of comparison as to how the source I assumed you used was presented.

[Mellsblue]

From what I've seen, the professional pollsters agree.

Also, which pollsters? Would you point me on their direction.

[Which Tyler]

I’ve been given your reasons but there are other people out there you think as you do so, I wanted their reasons, too.
For clarity, I didn’t tell you to do it the way the BBC did it. I merely posted the way they’d broken it down to show how different outlets are doing it differently, and by way of comparison as to how the source I assumed you used was presented.

Then next time say something like "I want to know why people have it this way, but I don't want to hear from people who've done it this way"
or "I want people's opinions, but not Aidans"

Also, which pollsters? Would you point me on their direction.

Try the ones you said did it the way I should have done.

ETA: Actually, no, sorry, you're right. You told me that I really should do it the way I did do it, then you showed me another source doing it the same way I had done it to show me an alternative.

[Digby]

Alastair Campbell kicked out of the Labour Party for voting Lid Dem. Corbyn will always look a muppet going after people for their voting record

[Puja]

Alastair Campbell kicked out of the Labour Party for voting Lid Dem. Corbyn will always look a muppet going after people for their voting record

Really Jeremy? This is really the priority right now? And, while I get that this is open and shut, this kind of swift sentencing will be compared unfavourably with the anti-semitism tribunals so it's another phenomenal publicity own-goal.

Thanks for tilting the debate back leftwards and returning Labour to being Labour, rather than Conservatives-lite, and thank you for enlivening the youth vote and engaging so many new people with politics, but I think it is now past time to go.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I’ve been given your reasons but there are other people out there you think as you do so, I wanted their reasons, too.
For clarity, I didn’t tell you to do it the way the BBC did it. I merely posted the way they’d broken it down to show how different outlets are doing it differently, and by way of comparison as to how the source I assumed you used was presented.

Then next time say something like "I want to know why people have it this way, but I don't want to hear from people who've done it this way"
or "I want people's opinions, but not Aidans"

Also, which pollsters? Would you point me on their direction.

Try the ones you said did it the way I should have done.

ETA: Actually, no, sorry, you're right. You told me that I really should do it the way I did do it, then you showed me another source doing it the same way I had done it to show me an alternative.

Chill, Winston. Could still do with the name of these pollsters, though.

[Digby]

Alastair Campbell kicked out of the Labour Party for voting Lid Dem. Corbyn will always look a muppet going after people for their voting record

Really Jeremy? This is really the priority right now? And, while I get that this is open and shut, this kind of swift sentencing will be compared unfavourably with the anti-semitism tribunals so it's another phenomenal publicity own-goal.

Thanks for tilting the debate back leftwards and returning Labour to being Labour, rather than Conservatives-lite, and thank you for enlivening the youth vote and engaging so many new people with politics, but I think it is now past time to go.

Puja

it'll be compared unfavourably with Jeremy extolling George Galloway winning for a different party

[Mellsblue]

Jezza has said Lab will have a Brexit policy by the end of conference.

[Digby]

Jezza has said Lab will have a Brexit policy by the end of conference.

He's admitting he's got a giant splinter in his arse from the last few years?

[morepork]

Campbell never really recovered from the Lions tour.

[fivepointer]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

[Banquo]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

[Banquo]

Campbell never really recovered from the Lions tour.

I'm still in rehab

[Stom]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

And they might even just merge with the Lib Dems. Lol.

[Digby]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

[Digby]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

And they might even just merge with the Lib Dems. Lol.

The Dems need to replace the cadaver notionally in charge so there is some chance this happens. But we'd have to recognise the party base in the Lib Dems often veers more than a little in political aspiration from the party at Westminster. Go back a few years and you'd have to wonder why many Lid Dem members weren't in the Labour Party, though in fairness that was under Blair/Brown, it's easy to see why they don't want to touch the Glorious Leader

[Banquo]

No rush lads. Sort it out by September and that leaves a whole month before the current Brexit departure date.

Campbell isnt alone. Loads of Labour members voted for other parties last week. 2 former ministers have confirmed they did too. As a matter of consistency they should now quickly expel everyone who admits to it.

I wonder why the party have acted in such haste today. Is there something else going on that they would quite like to keep off the news?

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

Forgot to ask the fan-boy one where he was

I'm really asking why he isn't the leader, and wondering if there is anything else we need to know about his reticence to lead (ie what he is hiding, rather than where).

and the problem would seem to stem from not working with lib dems prior to their 'recovery'.

[Which Tyler]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

[Digby]

fck did Change UK ever miss an opportunity. Soubry is now slagging Heidi Allen off; anyone know what or even where Chuka is hiding?

Chuka isn't in hiding, he's on a tour to get people in other parties to agree to targeting seats from the Remainer side in any future elections. His problem is after the Lib Dem recovery they're not too worried about meeting with Change UK, and nobody from any other group is that fussed to meet Chuka.

So if you want a meeting with Chuka he'd probably happily accept it at this point.

Forgot to ask the fan-boy one where he was

I'm really asking why he isn't the leader, and wondering if there is anything else we need to know about his reticence to lead (ie what he is hiding, rather than where).

and the problem would seem to stem from not working with lib dems prior to their 'recovery'.

I've got the flag out front, and the family now follows polo not rugby so we get more chukkas

I don't know he's hiding anything, which obviously isn't saying he isn't, he likes the ladies and there's probably some stories there the Mail would run but that's the worst of it I've heard of

[Puja]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

Wait, so that survey has 2% of people who voted for the Brexit party who would vote Remain in a second referendum? How the hell does that work?

Having looked at the article, the analysis is InFacts (who are normally okayish, although they have a fairly obvious hobby horse), but the data was from Survation as commissioned by the Daily Mail (who definitely ride the other hobby horse). Interesting.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

No idea how reliable or otherwise infacts is...

https://infacts.org/pro-europeans-beat- ... n-eu-vote/

Wait, so that survey has 2% of people who voted for the Brexit party who would vote Remain in a second referendum? How the hell does that work?

Having looked at the article, the analysis is InFacts (who are normally okayish, although they have a fairly obvious hobby horse), but the data was from Survation as commissioned by the Daily Mail (who definitely ride the other hobby horse). Interesting.

Puja

The figure was also similar for the UKIP party. It’s a strange one!
I did a bit of digging and Prof John Curtis has the Conservative split closer Lab - can’t find the link now but it was 65/35ish. If you also add in that a third of SNP supporters voted Leave it’s far from a clear picture. It just shows that the EU elections are not a single vote issue and extrapolating any proof of second ref outcome from simply allocating party votes to one of the other side is a flawed argument. I’m not doing the deep dig maths but based on those %s you could get a pretty clear picture of a second ref voting intentions, but it’s still a bit hamfisted.


Total Leave. Remain
BP- 31.6% 31%. 0.6%
LD- 20.3%. 3%. 17.2%.
Lab-14.1%. 3.5%. 10.6%.
Gr- 12.1%. 2.4%. 9.6%
Con-9.1%. 4.5%. 4.5% (using WT’s source not the Prof)
SNP-3.6%. 1.2%. 2.4%

CHUK and UKIP cancel each other out and I’m not sure how to apportion PC. The SNP data is also slightly out of date so may have moved.


Leave = 45.6%
Remain= 44.9%

Apols if maths are wrong as I’m doing this over breakfast but.....

(Also apols if the above table doesn’t translate to your device. I’m doing this on my phone)