RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote:

normanski wrote:Halaholo is out of the Cardiff match with a badly cut eyelid caused in Wales training. Hope this doesn’t stop him from playing at Twickenham although he might be a good bench option.

Not sure I would start him, but I would like him on the bench

I think Thompkins / Watkin looks fairly tidy, harsh call to drop either. Haloholo the obvious impact sub. But that means leaving out Foxy, which wouldn't have bothered me a week ago but he played VERY well off the bench against Scotland.

I keep thinking of Tuilagi running at Tompkins and I’d be lying if it was a happy thought.

Sandydragon wrote:I keep thinking of Tuilagi running at Tompkins and I’d be lying if it was a happy thought.

One good thing about Tompkins - for this match - is that he's very familiar with the English players.

That’s true. And if our back row can’t slow down English possession the it really won’t matter who is in the centres.

Anyone see Mike Brown's combined England/Wales 15 ?

Buggaluggs wrote:Anyone see Mike Brown's combined England/Wales 15 ?

Yup. About as subtle the proverbial bull.

Our back three, Tomos Williams, Faletau (if he plays) are easily
In that combined team. You could make an argument for Tompkins and Moriarty as well. Whilst this is the weakest Welsh team for a while, the English team is also one in development.

Buggaluggs wrote:Anyone see Mike Brown's combined England/Wales 15 ?

I think he should discuss it with Sam Warburton.

Wallpaperman wrote:

Buggaluggs wrote:Anyone see Mike Brown's combined England/Wales 15 ?

I think he should discuss it with Sam Warburton.

Best bit of motivation possible for the Wales players.

Faletau, Adams and Halaholo are fit and training giving Pivac more selection problems.

normanski wrote:

Wallpaperman wrote:

Buggaluggs wrote:Anyone see Mike Brown's combined England/Wales 15 ?

I think he should discuss it with Sam Warburton.

Best bit of motivation possible for the Wales players.

I haven’t actually seen this team, but really? Why would anyone care? It’s hard to imagine your boys could need much more to get them amped this game. England are in a strange transitional period and you’ve got your underdogs tag back after round 1.

I’m trying to remember what the Warburton reference is about? I remember that unbelievably cringey thing where he was talking about how hard Gethin Jenkins is and that he would “spark him out cold” or something.

Mike Brown's combined 15 had zero welsh in it. He and Warburton had a lapel grabbing handbags dance a few years ago. I don't think either are still in therapy over it!

I know it's a bit of fun but I do wonder why they set themselves up like this.

Was it Danny Care who, a few years ago now, said that no Welsh player would get in the England team, just before we beat them?

I've no doubt one of ours has done similarly at some point. It's all just such obvious WUMmery, but this particular kind seems to have a poor risk/rewward balance!

Sourdust wrote:I know it's a bit of fun but I do wonder why they set themselves up like this.

Was it Danny Care who, a few years ago now, said that no Welsh player would get in the England team, just before we beat them?

I've no doubt one of ours has done similarly at some point. It's all just such obvious WUMmery, but this particular kind seems to have a poor risk/rewward balance!

Brown was writing for the Daily Mail wasn’t he? He obviously knows his audience, and need to be controversial enough to ensure continued commissions.

Is the team announced today or tomorrow?

Nothing in the fail about an announcement today so I assume tomorrow.

Speculation over LRZ being dropped and Faletau on the bench in place of Wainwright. That’s about it.

Sandydragon wrote:Nothing in the fail about an announcement today so I assume tomorrow.

Speculation over LRZ being dropped and Faletau on the bench in place of Wainwright. That’s about it.

If Morgan is selected who will play eight? Basham or Moriarty? Wainwright is developing as an eight and is becoming a useful jumper as well.

My preference would be Moriarty at six, Basham at seven and either Wainwright or Faletau swapping eight and bench.

Tough on Morgan but when you’re up against flat track bullies in the England pack you need your biggest guys to muscle up and meet fire with fire.

If LRZ is dropped it might just be what’s needed to give him a gee up and to get over the ‘second season’ syndrome.

I’d prefer Faletau at 8, with Moriarty and Basham to start with Wainwright on the bench. Nothing against Morgan and his performance but if they are all fit then I want Faletau, Moriartynand Wainwright involved so it’s between him and Basham, the later having greater credit in the bank at the moment.

It’s looking likely that LRZ has been released back to Gloucester. Defensively he has looked a bit suspect in the last two games and he hasn’t looked as sharp with ball in hand. Hopefully we bring him back for the Italy game after a couple of weeks of club rugby or just recovering from his ankle injury.

Wouldn't want to see a mismatch of Basham against Lawes or Itoje at 6, so hopefully he'll be back at 7, preferably with Moriarty and Faletau to start and Wainwright on bench.

Pivac's just trying to destroy my nerves by engineering situations where he needs to start Cuthbert. LRZ hasn't had a great couple of games but unless his club form has been poor, or he's injured, I'd stick with him. As may have been said one or two times we should be falling back on Holmes or Lane at times like these (assuming McNicholl is out of favour).

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Wouldn't want to see a mismatch of Basham against Lawes or Itoje at 6, so hopefully he'll be back at 7, preferably with Moriarty and Faletau to start and Wainwright on bench.

Pivac's just trying to destroy my nerves by engineering situations where he needs to start Cuthbert. LRZ hasn't had a great couple of games but unless his club form has been poor, or he's injured, I'd stick with him. As may have been said one or two times we should be falling back on Holmes or Lane at times like these (assuming McNicholl is out of favour).

It's odd that our best back in the Autumn has been dropped after one game, Cuthbert has played with zeal but still lacks certain core skills, for instance when he tried to go over in the corner in the dottish game when he was pushed into touch, why is an international standard winger carrying the ball in the wrong hand, I suspect LRZ or McNicholl would have been able to finish that one.

Sometimes Provac does confuse the hell out of me. I still don’t get why Cuthbert is there when there are younger players who are in form and available. It just seems a wasted opportunity.

McNicholl has always been a conundrum. That said, he has messed about with the scrum halves and up until this season didn’t give any of them a run. And lots of centre partnerships too. Some of that is injury enforced and he has suffered badly on that respect. But there’s a feeling that he just can’t make his mind up.

Squad out in a few minutes. Interesting times!

I wouldn't have dropped McNicholl after one game, especially when the problem was with the forwards. He's quite a different kind of winger to Cuthbert - much more skilful but much less of a lump. Also, he's excellent full back cover - I worry what will happen if we lose Sanjay early on.

None of the wingers have been particularly good in the first two matches.
Here are the main stats: (metres run, tackles, tackles missed)
v Ireland
McN: 22m, 3t, 1mt
LRZ: 23m, 6t, 3mt
v Scotland
Cuth: 32m, 2t, 1mt
LRZ: 32m, 3t, 2mt

Based on these alone, there's a case for dropping LRZ but none for dropping McNicholl for Cuthbert.

For this match I'd select wingers in this order (assuming Liam is full back):
Adams, LRZ, McNicholl, Holmes, Lane, Cuthbert.
If this were a less key match, I'd also prefer to try Conbeer or Protheroe.

Also, Adams + Liam as wingers with McNicholl at full back would be vastly better than a back line including Cuthbert.

Faletau is in with Basham and Moriarty in the back row. Morgan on bench instead of Wainwright which could lose us a bit of heft in the last quarter. Front five as before.

Cuthbert keeps his place with Adams back on the other wing. Watkin and Tompkins keep their places with Foxy on the bench.

Anscombe rather than Sheedy on the bench, Hardy rather than Davies and Leon Brown instead of Lewis.

I just hope we have a pack that can muscle up. Eddie is forecasting a fast start for England so we need to be defensively pure in the first quarter to take the sting out of their attack.

Wales: L Williams; Cuthbert, Watkin, Tompkins, Adams; Biggar (capt), T Williams; W Jones, Elias, Francis, Rowlands, Beard, Moriarty, Basham, Faletau.

Replacements: Lake, G Thomas, Brown, S Davies, Morgan, Hardy, Anscombe, J Davies.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Sourdust wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: I mean, I have Moriarty at 6, so sure he might go to 8 but Basham would have to go to 6. Or Basham goes to 8. Either way we have Basham out of position.

Of course, if Basham gets injured then you'd be correct!

I'm confused now!

6-Moriarty 7-Basham 8-Faletau B-Morgan
Morgan covers 6 & 7, Moriarty covers 8. Where's the issue?
Mori off: Morg, Bash, Fal
Bash off: Mori, Morg, Fal
Fal off: Morg, Bash, Mori

The only difference I can see is that Wainwright (arguably) covers all 3 positions, but that's a bit of a stretch.

My point is that in 2 out of 3 scenarios we end up with Morgan playing at 6, which is not ideal (or alternatively, Basham moves to 6, Morgan to 7, which is also - as we have seen - not the best). Wainwright is the better bench cover in those scenarios. Only if Basham goes off would Morgan be the ideal bench cover.

Also, Faletau and Moriarty are coming back from injury, so less likely to last the full 80 minutes than Basham, which makes those two scenarios even more likely.

Seb would cover 6