COVID19

[Sandydragon]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

[Mellsblue]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

[Sandydragon]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

[Mellsblue]

FFS, how to undermine support for any future lockdown!

The rate was dropping because people were locking themselves down. London was like a ghost town before the official lockdown took force.

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

He might have. I just read a report, not a transcript. The report noted he said that lockdown was still the correct call.

[Stom]

Prof Whitty confirming that the R0 rate was dropping even before lockdown and that they had no comprehension of how quickly it would rip through old people’s homes. Scottish epidemiologist saying that other than one possible case in Oz there is no evidence of child to teacher transmission in the world and, therefore, coupled with how unaffected kids are, schools shouldn’t have been shut (for those under 16).
Just shows how blind we were going in to this and how the elderly, particularly those with dementia, and the young have been shafted.

We were lucky to have a few weeks of school, but it’s over now until September. And as a lot of Hungarians immediately went in holiday abroad as soon as travel restrictions were loosened, a spike is inevitable in a few weeks time. Just hope it doesn’t last until September!!!

[Sandydragon]

Tbf, that info was already out in the public domain, hence ‘confirming’. I think Prof Shagger was the first to go public on R4 a few weeks ago. He also has to answer a question truthfully if asked, surely.

Of course he has to provide a truthful answer, but he could add additional information such as there being an unofficial lockdown prior to the official one.

He might have. I just read a report, not a transcript. The report noted he said that lockdown was still the correct call.

I'm assuming he said more than that one line in the interview. Sadly the media pick up on one liners.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Can't find the source, but the Mail says R was 2.3 just before lockdown. Which is well above 1, which was why the lockdown was necessary.

I think the Mail is presenting a falling* rate of infection and assuming many of its readers won't be able to distinguish this from a falling number of infections. All in an attempt to undermine support for lockdowns.


* falling, but still at a level to cause exponential growth.

[Galfon]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

[Banquo]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

[Digby]

What are the rights of companies about workers heading off on holiday of they might need to be absent from work for an additional 14 days on returning?

[morepork]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

[Stom]

o-o-h-h the okey cokey !!..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53540691

More pain for travellers and travel companies; presumably quaranteen means another 2 weeks off on return. (interesting discussion with your boss there.)
If uk wide, not sure of the need for duplicate announcements from devolved regions.

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

I don't get the 2 week quarantine thing. Why can't they test everyone on return? They'd just have to wait a couple of days (or whatever it is these days) for a result before leaving quarantine.

Also, even on a "spike" in Spain, their daily new cases aren't much higher than ours. I expect there are parts of the UK which have a higher density of infection - should people be quarantined when moving around the UK?

[Stom]

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

I don't get the 2 week quarantine thing. Why can't they test everyone on return? They'd just have to wait a couple of days (or whatever it is these days) for a result before leaving quarantine.

Also, even on a "spike" in Spain, their daily new cases aren't much higher than ours. I expect there are parts of the UK which have a higher density of infection - should people be quarantined when moving around the UK?

The tests aren’t completely accurate, though, are they?

We shouldn’t be encouraging international travel yet.

[Son of Mathonwy]

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

I don't get the 2 week quarantine thing. Why can't they test everyone on return? They'd just have to wait a couple of days (or whatever it is these days) for a result before leaving quarantine.

Also, even on a "spike" in Spain, their daily new cases aren't much higher than ours. I expect there are parts of the UK which have a higher density of infection - should people be quarantined when moving around the UK?

The tests aren’t completely accurate, though, are they?

We shouldn’t be encouraging international travel yet.

No test is 100% accurate.

If the UK was free from infection, I could see an argument for it. But there's a similar chance of picking up covid-19 in the UK as there is in Spain, so what's the point in demanding perfection?

I agree we shouldn't be encouraging international travel, but that's not the point of this move (it would be an astoundingly stupid way to do it). Anyway, the time for 14 day quarantines was March when the Covid-19 density was significantly higher in Spain and Italy (etc).

[morepork]

The 14 day thing is based on the incubation period of the virus, not on the density of infected people. It takes an average of 5 days from exposure to onset of symptoms, meaning the virus is unlikely to be shedding material into the respiratory tract until a week or so. The diagnostic requires generating a DNA template of the RNA virus genome before PCR can be run, and this step (reverse transcription) is not particularly efficient/sensitive. If you swab someone before 5 days post-initial exposure there is a risk that there will not be enough material to run the diagnostic reliably. Comprehensive testing requires an initial early test then an additional test somewhere near the end of the 2 week quarantine. That way you can be sure the virus has had enough time to complete multiple lytic cycles and provide enough testable material.

[Galfon]

What are the rights of companies about workers heading off on holiday of they might need to be absent from work for an additional 14 days on returning?

acas site..
"If the person can work from home, their work may not be affected by having to self-isolate...
If an employee cannot do their job from home, they may need to take extra annual leave to cover the 14 days of self-isolation. In some cases, this might mean their annual leave request is refused.
The employer can consider other options. For example, if the employer and employee agree, the person could be put on furlough ('temporary leave') for the time they're self-isolating.
Employees and workers are not entitled to Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) if they're self-isolating after returning to the UK and cannot work from home. But an employer can choose to pay them SSP - or a higher rate of sick pay - if they want to. "

Looks uncertain for many, therefore additional worry.

[Banquo]

Japan having a clear second wave too, somewhat concerning. I did think those jetting off to Spain etc were a little optimistic.

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

We were tempted, but then thought about it.....

[Stom]

That's putting it politely. What were they thinking?

With young kids...it could be incredibly tempting. We were tempted by Croatia, but we stayed in Hungary instead. If we'd been at home the last 2 weeks, with the kids in the mood they're in, we'd have gone crazy. We've now got the summer holidays to get through and we're not quite sure how.

We're definitely going to go away again, to the same place, but I'm not going abroad until next year, I feel.

We were tempted, but then thought about it.....

lol, well indeed.

[Which Tyler]

Just been looking at the 2nd round of self-employed support scheme...

It covers 3 months from July 14th (so too soon to tell for sure just yet, but then, not open for applications until August 18th anyway)
So the first round covered March, April, May; and the second covers Mid-July to mid-October
Nothing at all covers 6 weeks from beginning of June through to mid July - presumably explicity so that those businesses like hair dressers, massage therapists, restaurants etc don't get to claim for the missing 6 weeks (assuming their business returned to normal on opening - a fair assumption for hairdressers for example). Of course, they'd still have had the 6 weeks of overheads, but hey, nevermind.

Now, I do think that the 70% is probably more generous than it needs to be (assuming no second wave - everyone should be open, but most with reduced takings) - but it looks like I'll be applying. My takings for the last 2 weeks (since Ali was allowed back) are down around 50% of normal (outgoings are higher in order to buy PPE, and the sheer quantity of cleaning products). Partly having to allow extra time between patients for cleaning and aeration, and partly as a decent proportion of the patient base simply aren't leaving the house yet.

[Banquo]

Just been looking at the 2nd round of self-employed support scheme...

It covers 3 months from July 14th (so too soon to tell for sure just yet, but then, not open for applications until August 18th anyway)
So the first round covered March, April, May; and the second covers Mid-July to mid-October
Nothing at all covers 6 weeks from beginning of June through to mid July - presumably explicity so that those businesses like hair dressers, massage therapists, restaurants etc don't get to claim for the missing 6 weeks (assuming their business returned to normal on opening - a fair assumption for hairdressers for example). Of course, they'd still have had the 6 weeks of overheads, but hey, nevermind.

Now, I do think that the 70% is probably more generous than it needs to be (assuming no second wave - everyone should be open, but most with reduced takings) - but it looks like I'll be applying. My takings for the last 2 weeks (since Ali was allowed back) are down around 50% of normal (outgoings are higher in order to buy PPE, and the sheer quantity of cleaning products). Partly having to allow extra time between patients for cleaning and aeration, and partly as a decent proportion of the patient base simply aren't leaving the house yet.

Did you get the 10k grant?
PPE is going to be a big problem once patient numbers ramp up- we reckon we'll need 1/2 million face masks pa (plus gloves, aprons), and then there is eye covering...

Overall, landfill will be swamped.

[Which Tyler]

Did you get the 10k grant?
PPE is going to be a big problem once patient numbers ramp up- we reckon we'll need 1/2 million face masks pa (plus gloves, aprons), and then there is eye covering...

Overall, landfill will be swamped.

Yes - thank gods.

PPE is and already has been a problem - my general requirements are 1 box of gloves for doing oral work or treating those with nasty conditions - 100 glvoes typicaly lasts me about 2 years. I was getting towards the end of mine when all this hit, so had a spare box, which I gave to the local hospital.
I'm into my 3rd box since re-opening now.
Obviously, my PPE numbers are tiny - it's just bloody difficult to get hold of, being price gouged for it, and being unable to trust the standards as it's all coming fro China or new ventures - already had to bin* 50 PPF2 masks because the manufacturer appeared to have forged their certificates. Mind track and trace say that PPF2 masks don't cover me (so I had to throw away* my second box) - despite being a significant upgrade on IIR masks, because they don't tick the box that says "IIR mask". PHE approve, track and trace don't.

I've been given the green light on a reusable gown though (way, way less landfill) - so go figure. There's also a distinct lack of nuance or common sense - I have to wear disposable gloves to treat a patient, despite seeing 1 person an hour, and being perfectly capable of washing my hands (which is superior to glove protection); I don't have to wear forearm or elbow protection though, despite those being my most at-risk areas for transmission. I am required to wear gloves, apron and mask, whilst eye protection is risk assessed by the patient (I wear it regardless) - in order to spend 20 minutes with a patient, about half of which is at 2m distance. Ali has to wear a face shield, and that's it, in order to spend 40 mintes with a patient, none of which is spent at 2m distance. Obviously, we both wear the same for the sake of continuity (except gloves as that's bloody stupid).

Not just landfill btw - all these toxic cleaning chemicals as well - mostly unecessary as simple soap works on this particular virus.
On which - there's another are of discontent. As a chiropractor, I've been told I need professional waste removal for clinical waste for my PPE (apparently, on a minimum of 3 year contract, with monthly collections - even if I only produce 1 5l bag in a month) - Osteopaths, physiotherapists, massage therapists, hairdressers, and just about anyone else has to double bag it, leave it somewhere for 3 days whilst the virus dies, and it can go in domestic refuse.



* by "throw away" I mean "kept half a dozen for DIY, but binned the rest" from the Chinese ones; and "donated to the hospital" for the second batch.

[Donny osmond]

Yes, the environment is just one of many victims of our response to this virus.

Anyway, here's someone saying the UK response to the virus is the best in the world... he makes a good argument too, not in a jingoistic sense but more, what you see really just depends where you shine your light.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... orld-class





Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[paddy no 11]

Clutching at straws there Donny - and yes it would be amazing if the oxford vaccine gets approval after phase 3

[Banquo]

Did you get the 10k grant?
PPE is going to be a big problem once patient numbers ramp up- we reckon we'll need 1/2 million face masks pa (plus gloves, aprons), and then there is eye covering...

Overall, landfill will be swamped.

Yes - thank gods.

PPE is and already has been a problem - my general requirements are 1 box of gloves for doing oral work or treating those with nasty conditions - 100 glvoes typicaly lasts me about 2 years. I was getting towards the end of mine when all this hit, so had a spare box, which I gave to the local hospital.
I'm into my 3rd box since re-opening now.
Obviously, my PPE numbers are tiny - it's just bloody difficult to get hold of, being price gouged for it, and being unable to trust the standards as it's all coming fro China or new ventures - already had to bin* 50 PPF2 masks because the manufacturer appeared to have forged their certificates. Mind track and trace say that PPF2 masks don't cover me (so I had to throw away* my second box) - despite being a significant upgrade on IIR masks, because they don't tick the box that says "IIR mask". PHE approve, track and trace don't.

I've been given the green light on a reusable gown though (way, way less landfill) - so go figure. There's also a distinct lack of nuance or common sense - I have to wear disposable gloves to treat a patient, despite seeing 1 person an hour, and being perfectly capable of washing my hands (which is superior to glove protection); I don't have to wear forearm or elbow protection though, despite those being my most at-risk areas for transmission. I am required to wear gloves, apron and mask, whilst eye protection is risk assessed by the patient (I wear it regardless) - in order to spend 20 minutes with a patient, about half of which is at 2m distance. Ali has to wear a face shield, and that's it, in order to spend 40 mintes with a patient, none of which is spent at 2m distance. Obviously, we both wear the same for the sake of continuity (except gloves as that's bloody stupid).

Not just landfill btw - all these toxic cleaning chemicals as well - mostly unecessary as simple soap works on this particular virus.
On which - there's another are of discontent. As a chiropractor, I've been told I need professional waste removal for clinical waste for my PPE (apparently, on a minimum of 3 year contract, with monthly collections - even if I only produce 1 5l bag in a month) - Osteopaths, physiotherapists, massage therapists, hairdressers, and just about anyone else has to double bag it, leave it somewhere for 3 days whilst the virus dies, and it can go in domestic refuse.



* by "throw away" I mean "kept half a dozen for DIY, but binned the rest" from the Chinese ones; and "donated to the hospital" for the second batch.

Aye, its all a bit mad. F\ce shields are my biggest source of annoyance tbh- NHS is throwing them all away after one session, even though they could easily be cleaned. We do have to clinically dispose of all our waste too. I totally agree on the nonsense of not having to cover arm or elbows.

God knows why PHE can't get their act together here- its pretty simple.....worst (and best tbh) case, they should say risk assess for your own domain, rather than dogmatic recommendations.