COVID19

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Which Tyler
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Re: COVID19

Post by Which Tyler »





Startling stuff in this FT piece regarding the lack of data distilled down to a local level (text copied from elsewhere as it's behind a paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a31 ... 66933d423a
The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

The government publishes a UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day that includes tests from hospitals and those processed by commercial laboratories, including samples taken at home. But at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only hospital tests. The result is that hundreds of local authorities across the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.

This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one reason for a delay in locking down the east Midlands city, where virus cases have spiked. “For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday. According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2. While PHE releases full data for England’s nine main regions with a two-week delay, the areas are too big to give local authorities a useful picture of the situation in their communities.

Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act. “I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
This is a thoroughly ridiculous way to manage a public health crisis and it boggles my mind at the lack of shared data and shared decision making going on here.
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Which Tyler
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Re: COVID19

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So the 2-3 week delay between infections happening, and being caught on test is now showing up the results of the last round of easing
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... -in-a-week
Suspected Covid-19 outbreaks in English workplaces double in a week

Spread of virus in workplaces is trending up while transmission in most other settings declines.

Suspected outbreaks of Covid-19 in workplaces in England almost doubled in the past week, prompting concern as more people return to their jobs.

Public Health England (PHE) said 43 acute respiratory outbreaks were reported in workplaces in the week ending 28 June, up from 22 in the previous week.

The data shows the spread of the virus in workplaces is trending up while transmission in most other settings is in decline. Workplaces are now the only location where the spread of the virus is clearly on the increase.

Low-paid, manual workers, face a much greater risk of dying from coronavirus than higher-paid, white-collar workers. Security guards, care workers, construction workers, plant operatives, cleaners, taxi drivers, bus drivers, chefs and retail workers are all at a greater risk of dying, according to analysis of Covid-19 fatalities from the Office for National Statistics.

What better timing to open pubs? - where you can drink whilst wearing a mask, drunks are famous for respecting your personal space, and anybody who've ever been in a pub Gents' can agree that hand hygiene is of utmost importance. Of course, no-one working in pubs could be considered "low paid" and therefore liable to see a greater risk of death either.

Oh, and let's combine that with a message that tells us that social distancing isn't even important anymore - or at least, that the lives it saves are less important than the finances of Vote Leave donors.
fivepointer
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Re: COVID19

Post by fivepointer »

Which Tyler wrote:



Startling stuff in this FT piece regarding the lack of data distilled down to a local level (text copied from elsewhere as it's behind a paywall)
https://www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a31 ... 66933d423a
The ability of local leaders to manage new coronavirus outbreaks in the UK is being hampered by gaps in the reporting of infection data for cities and regions, according to analysis by the Financial Times.

The government publishes a UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day that includes tests from hospitals and those processed by commercial laboratories, including samples taken at home. But at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only hospital tests. The result is that hundreds of local authorities across the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.

This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one reason for a delay in locking down the east Midlands city, where virus cases have spiked. “For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday. According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944 as he announced the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday.

Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2. While PHE releases full data for England’s nine main regions with a two-week delay, the areas are too big to give local authorities a useful picture of the situation in their communities.

Leicester city council’s public health department only received the elevated infection numbers cited by Mr Hancock last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because the so-called pillar 2 figures are only made available to officials in their own local authority area if they have signed the Data Protection Act. “I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter, Leicester’s mayor. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
This is a thoroughly ridiculous way to manage a public health crisis and it boggles my mind at the lack of shared data and shared decision making going on here.
The whole thing is shamefully amateurish.

Worse, it borders on the criminally negligent.

We deserve better than this.
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

fivepointer wrote:
We deserve better than this.
We voted them in, and they didn't exactly look a competent bunch when we did so. So pretty much we've done it to ourselves
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Galfon
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Re: COVID19

Post by Galfon »

'Super Saturday' (*) ?..Police leave has been cancelled, so we can stay safe. :|
(* maybe for billy brewer, larry landlord, tommy taxman...
vinny virus et al.. )
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canta_brian
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Re: COVID19

Post by canta_brian »

Galfon wrote:'Super Saturday' (*) ?..Police leave has been cancelled, so we can stay safe. :|
(* maybe for billy brewer, larry landlord, tommy taxman...
vinny virus et al.. )
Well, if we all exercise judgement and common sense none of those mentioned about will be making much money over the weekend. And that’s likely to be the case ..... isn’t it?
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Get ready for shit like this:




" The state of Arizona has seen an incredible rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations recently, forcing the state to pause its reopening. And now one bar is under investigation after it allegedly allowed multiple employees known to have tested positive for the coronavirus to continue working.

Varsity Tavern, located in downtown Tempe, allegedly permitted both employees and managers to continue working after being diagnosed, according to the State of Arizona Department of Liquor Licenses and Control.

After the state agency began its investigation, the business decided to close on July 1.

Officials are still seeking to revoke Varsity Tavern's license. The establishment has had its license suspended twice before, once in December 2018 and again in July 2019.

The Department of Liquor also alleges that the bar management knowingly didn't notify health officials that workers tested positive, didn't enforce social distancing requirements and didn't enforce mask-wearing requirements
."
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

We're expecting a 2nd wave any minute now here.

Just in time for the summer holiday season, Hungary's favourite beach spot opened up for business, with Croatia opening their borders to Hungarians. Half the country have left already and then....

boom, Croatia has a massive spike in cases.

Let's fast forward a month, and all those Hungarians exposed on Croatian beaches will be coming home with the virus.


BTW: my wife and I are certain we've had it. It turned out my son's nursery teacher visited Northern Italy just before everything broke. She bought it back, we all got ill with fever prior to the lockdown, and then after lockdown I tried to get back into exercise...just to find myself out of puff a lot earlier than I'd have expected. I thought I was just unfit, but now I'm pretty sure it was the left overs from the virus.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Do you have antibodies?
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

morepork wrote:Do you have antibodies?
Haven’t been tested. Is there any point if we had it back in feb?
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Stom wrote:
morepork wrote:Do you have antibodies?
Haven’t been tested. Is there any point if we had it back in feb?

Think you had it. Be nice to know if you had a possibly protective immune response to it.
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

morepork wrote:
Stom wrote:
morepork wrote:Do you have antibodies?
Haven’t been tested. Is there any point if we had it back in feb?

Think you had it. Be nice to know if you had a possibly protective immune response to it.
Sorry, I thought the if covered that :p

Yeah, but would it show up?
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

Stom wrote:
morepork wrote:
Stom wrote:
Haven’t been tested. Is there any point if we had it back in feb?

Think you had it. Be nice to know if you had a possibly protective immune response to it.
Sorry, I thought the if covered that :p

Yeah, but would it show up?
That's what I was going to ask- our staff wanted antibody tests, so I sorted it, but very unsure of their use other than explaining some previous symptoms....is the immunity a given now?

Stom- you might want to have your sats checked and get some rehab advice.
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

The global biomedical community would like an answer to just that. They need data.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

morepork wrote:The global biomedical community would like an answer to just that. They need data.
What's the proposal for getting it?
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

You would assume following up individuals diagnosed with the virus via PCR for seropositive serum. Taking serum or plasma at regular intervals over time and using it to conduct inactivating antibody assays in vitro. Culture cells that are permissive for coronavirus infection and run dilutions of serum to see if it blocks uptake of the virus by cells. All pretty standard stuff. You can freeze and bank serum so it doesn't have to be done fresh. There are surely such banks around the world at the moment.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

morepork wrote:You would assume following up individuals diagnosed with the virus via PCR for seropositive serum. Taking serum or plasma at regular intervals over time and using it to conduct inactivating antibody assays in vitro. Culture cells that are permissive for coronavirus infection and run dilutions of serum to see if it blocks uptake of the virus by cells. All pretty standard stuff. You can freeze and bank serum so it doesn't have to be done fresh. There are surely such banks around the world at the moment.
well here's to someone knowing what they are doing, somewhere.....
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morepork
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Re: COVID19

Post by morepork »

Knowing the muppets over here, Mike Pence has probably directed HR at the CDC to open a position for an exorcist, with preference given to individuals with TV experience.
Banquo
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Re: COVID19

Post by Banquo »

morepork wrote:Knowing the muppets over here, Mike Pence has probably directed HR at the CDC to open a position for an exorcist, with preference given to individuals with TV experience.
:lol: :lol: I shouldn't laugh, I know.
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Stom
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Re: COVID19

Post by Stom »

Banquo wrote:
Stom wrote:
morepork wrote:

Think you had it. Be nice to know if you had a possibly protective immune response to it.
Sorry, I thought the if covered that :p

Yeah, but would it show up?
That's what I was going to ask- our staff wanted antibody tests, so I sorted it, but very unsure of their use other than explaining some previous symptoms....is the immunity a given now?

Stom- you might want to have your sats checked and get some rehab advice.
Maybe, but I'm pretty OK now. Was about a month to 2 that I just didn't feel 100%
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

Banquo wrote:
morepork wrote:Knowing the muppets over here, Mike Pence has probably directed HR at the CDC to open a position for an exorcist, with preference given to individuals with TV experience.
:lol: :lol: I shouldn't laugh, I know.
"There is one outside chance for a cure. I think of it as shock treatment, as I said, it's a very outside chance...Have you ever heard of hydroxychloroquine?"
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Galfon
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Re: COVID19

Post by Galfon »

Looking ahead to the winter and no certainty of early vaccine..
Prof. Bell (Oxon):
'This whole epidemic has relied too heavily on assumptions that have turned out not to be true.
So my strong advice is to be prepared for the worst.'

sounds reasonable.
The blighter is running riot where restrictions have been relaxed. ( Israel/ ME another example ).
Jul 2 -  7-day avge of new cases (ft) :
fra 729 ^, uk 560 v,  ger 445,
..isr 735 ^^.
Cze R, Oz are also on a bump.

..US meanwhile appears to be on another lunar mission:
Jul 3 - 47127 and rising, so it is a good job the flame was put out when it was. :shock:
Last edited by Galfon on Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: COVID19

Post by Eugene Wrayburn »

Digby wrote:
fivepointer wrote:
We deserve better than this.
We voted them in, and they didn't exactly look a competent bunch when we did so. So pretty much we've done it to ourselves
And that's what really hurts...
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.

NS. Gone but not forgotten.
Digby
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Re: COVID19

Post by Digby »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Digby wrote:
fivepointer wrote:
We deserve better than this.
We voted them in, and they didn't exactly look a competent bunch when we did so. So pretty much we've done it to ourselves
And that's what really hurts...
it wears me out
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canta_brian
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Re: COVID19

Post by canta_brian »

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:
Digby wrote:
fivepointer wrote:
We deserve better than this.
We voted them in, and they didn't exactly look a competent bunch when we did so. So pretty much we've done it to ourselves
And that's what really hurts...
I think we now know the way to purest hell.
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