Brexit delayed

[Digby]

I think we all know Rory is just Ronnie Wood in disguise

[fivepointer]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

[Stones of granite]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

My money is crashing out without a deal. My reasoning is quite simple. All that the hardline Brexiteers have to do is fight a guerilla action to paralyse the Government until March 29th, then the clock runs out we leave with no deal by default. All that they have do is to well-time a no-confidence vote.
They don't care about the damage that will be done, their motivations are driven by dogma and they will quote the old line about eggs and omelettes.

[Stom]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

Hang on a minute...are we giving May the credit she deserves here...

She was a remainer. Maybe this was all a masterplan. Negotiate a deal that was impossible to accept, delay until parliament had no option, then have a 2nd ref with the 3 options...And, hey presto, we remain in the EU?

If the UK ends up in the EU, May may have played a blinder.

[Digby]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

My money is crashing out without a deal. My reasoning is quite simple. All that the hardline Brexiteers have to do is fight a guerilla action to paralyse the Government until March 29th, then the clock runs out we leave with no deal by default. All that they have do is to well-time a no-confidence vote.
They don't care about the damage that will be done, their motivations are driven by dogma and they will quote the old line about eggs and omelettes.

I'm pretty certain parliament would instruct government to simply extend the negotiations in the event of no deal
Nobody with an ounce of credibility is going to support no deal

Letters forcing a confidence vote in May are now reported as having reached sufficient number

[Which Tyler]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

And, to be fair, I think she genuinely has done the best of an impossible situation with the deal she has got. Despite the way she got there.
However, the deal is still a shambles, and quite honestly, all 3 options will split the country for a generation to come.

Hypothetically, the o of alternative I can see is a general election, and an off-the-shelf deal (AKA the Norway option) which will still piss most people off.

[canta_brian]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

Hang on a minute...are we giving May the credit she deserves here...

She was a remainer. Maybe this was all a masterplan. Negotiate a deal that was impossible to accept, delay until parliament had no option, then have a 2nd ref with the 3 options...And, hey presto, we remain in the EU?

If the UK ends up in the EU, May may have played a blinder.

I’m starting to think along those lines as well.

[fivepointer]

https://www.cer.eu/insights/what-happen ... rexit-deal

Good summary of where we are. ( basically up shit creek but this lays it out in more genteel language)

[canta_brian]

Cometh the hour, runneth the Gove apparently

[Stones of granite]

May is right on the available options.
Its take her deal, leave without a deal or remain. Thats it. The EU wont renegotiate (as was expected) so we are down to deciding on one of the 3 alternatives.
So a deal that most people reckon is seriously flawed and seems to satisfy very few, a no deal that would likely cripple large parts of the economy, or keeping the current arrangement as members of the EU.

My money is crashing out without a deal. My reasoning is quite simple. All that the hardline Brexiteers have to do is fight a guerilla action to paralyse the Government until March 29th, then the clock runs out we leave with no deal by default. All that they have do is to well-time a no-confidence vote.
They don't care about the damage that will be done, their motivations are driven by dogma and they will quote the old line about eggs and omelettes.

I'm pretty certain parliament would instruct government to simply extend the negotiations in the event of no deal
Nobody with an ounce of credibility is going to support no deal

Letters forcing a confidence vote in May are now reported as having reached sufficient number

Parliament can't instruct the Government to do anything without passing a bill. That would have to be put before the house, debated and passed. It would also require that the EU agree to deferring Article 50.
As I said, if the saboteurs time it right, they can force a crash out.

[Which Tyler]

Have I got this process right (specifically for the Tories)?

JRM needs 48 letters expressing no confidence to force a vote in May.

IF he gets that, then he needs 150 votes to remove her - and that's just a vote for May or No May.

IF she loses, then she can't stand, and they need a volunteer to actually put their head above the parapet.


If I've got that right, I would expect him to get the 48 required; but not the 150 - which makes May safe from challenge for 12 months.

However, if she loses (or calls it quits) in the first round; I would love it if essentially nobody puts their hands up to take the top job (unlikely whilst BoJo and Gove still exist, but hey). What would happen then? presumably Parliament has fallen apart and either Corbyn is asked to form a minority government, or a general election is forced - without a Tory leader...

TBH, if nobody puts their hand up, I can see either Ken Clarke "taking one for the team" and stepping into the leadership role as the only candidate - revoking Art 50 and retiring. I can also see Johnson stepping up as the only candidate; crashing out with no deal; affirming his place in the history books, and brazening it out.

[Digby]

My money is crashing out without a deal. My reasoning is quite simple. All that the hardline Brexiteers have to do is fight a guerilla action to paralyse the Government until March 29th, then the clock runs out we leave with no deal by default. All that they have do is to well-time a no-confidence vote.
They don't care about the damage that will be done, their motivations are driven by dogma and they will quote the old line about eggs and omelettes.

I'm pretty certain parliament would instruct government to simply extend the negotiations in the event of no deal
Nobody with an ounce of credibility is going to support no deal

Letters forcing a confidence vote in May are now reported as having reached sufficient number

Parliament can't instruct the Government to do anything without passing a bill. That would have to be put before the house, debated and passed. It would also require that the EU agree to deferring Article 50.
As I said, if the saboteurs time it right, they can force a crash out.

So parliament can instruct government essentially, and given the alternative I tend to think the EU will play ball. Otherwise people would be being like me and wanting to see this process not only not work but watch it spectacularly burn, and nobody should want to be like me.

[Digby]

Have I got this process right (specifically for the Tories)?

JRM needs 48 letters expressing no confidence to force a vote in May.

IF he gets that, then he needs 150 votes to remove her - and that's just a vote for May or No May.

IF she loses, then she can't stand, and they need a volunteer to actually put their head above the parapet.


If I've got that right, I would expect him to get the 48 required; but not the 150 - which makes May safe from challenge for 12 months.

However, if she loses (or calls it quits) in the first round; I would love it if essentially nobody puts their hands up to take the top job (unlikely whilst BoJo and Gove still exist, but hey). What would happen then? presumably Parliament has fallen apart and either Corbyn is asked to form a minority government, or a general election is forced - without a Tory leader...

TBH, if nobody puts their hand up, I can see either Ken Clarke "taking one for the team" and stepping into the leadership role as the only candidate - revoking Art 50 and retiring. I can also see Johnson stepping up as the only candidate; crashing out with no deal; affirming his place in the history books, and brazening it out.

There's probably a number between 48 and 150 which sees May winning in theory but in practice making her position untenable, maybe it's 100 maybe not, but it's a realistic shot for ERG

[fivepointer]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

[Digby]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

It's an odd thing that they are so observant of the problems getting May's deal through parliament, and so wilfully ignorant of getting their own proposed deal through parliament and past the EU

[Puja]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

I'm sure the EU will be thrilled to accept whatever they come up with. In fact, they'd probably be honoured to even be addressed by so august a body.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

Are they aware that they're supposed to be negotiating nwith the EU, not just each other

[Puja]

[Sandydragon]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

I'm sure the EU will be thrilled to accept whatever they come up with. In fact, they'd probably be honoured to even be addressed by so august a body.

Puja

The EU will probably put u the closed sign and I don’t blame them. We need to take it or leave it now.

[Digby]

BREXIT LATEST: Cabinet trouble gets worse for May... Andrea Leadsom is convening a working group of five Cabinet Brexiteers to re-write the Brexit deal, sources say. Gove, Fox, Mordaunt, Grayling, and Leadsom... They're meeting through next week.

Phew, thats a relief. I'm sure they'll come up with something that we can all rally around.

I'm sure the EU will be thrilled to accept whatever they come up with. In fact, they'd probably be honoured to even be addressed by so august a body.

Puja

The EU will probably put u the closed sign and I don’t blame them. We need to take it or leave it now.

Or vote again

[fivepointer]

We've had the negotiations. What is on the table is the deal that the EU is offering.
The ERG clowns and the Labour front benchers are either being delusional dimwits, or are playing party politics at this crucial time in our history. They need to grow up and start acting like true parliamentarians and representatives we can feel some pride in.
We now have the options to a) accept it as it is, b) walk away with no deal, or c) remain after A50 is extended to accommodate another vote.

[Sandydragon]

There’s a great cartoon in the Sunday Times. Imagine a bunch of MPs with Rees Mogg at the front chanting ‘What do we want?’, long silence, ‘When do we want it?’, ‘Now!’

[Sandydragon]

We've had the negotiations. What is on the table is the deal that the EU is offering.
The ERG clowns and the Labour front benchers are either being delusional dimwits, or are playing party politics at this crucial time in our history. They need to grow up and start acting like true parliamentarians and representatives we can feel some pride in.
We now have the options to a) accept it as it is, b) walk away with no deal, or c) remain after A50 is extended to accommodate another vote.

Amen.

[Digby]

The glorious leader says he doesn't know how he'd vote in the case of a second referendum, and presumably he thus has no plan as to how the official opposition would campaign in the event a vote he's worked hard to prevent ever takes place

Keith Starmer says a second vote allows brexit can be stopped

The glorious leader says brexit can't be stopped

[Mellsblue]

The glorious leader says he doesn't know how he'd vote in the case of a second referendum, and presumably he thus has no plan as to how the official opposition would campaign in the event a vote he's worked hard to prevent ever takes place

Keith Starmer says a second vote allows brexit can be stopped

The glorious leader says brexit can't be stopped

That’s one of his more coherent arguments.