Statistic of the Day

[rowan]

Italy is not just the only tier 1 nation to have conceded a ton, it has actually conceded 3, which is more than any of the tier 2 teams. Hong Kong & Korea have scored the most among tier 3 nations with 4 apiece (according to the info at hand).

[Lizard]

An update on this, from Feb 2016:

All Blacks try-scoring record

This record does not change hands often but could do so this year.

First of all - the progression:
1903-1904: O. Asher, R. McGregor and G. Tyler shared the record with 1 try each in New Zealand's first test

1904-1908: D. McGregor took the record in 1904, extended it from 2 to 6 by 1906 and held it for 2 more years

1908-1973: The great F. Mitchinson reached 7 tries in 1908, aided by a hat-trick in his first test. Another hat-trick helped him to 10 (in only 9 tests) by 1910. He didn't add to that in his last two tests in 1913, but held the record for an amazing 63 years.

1973-1983: Ian Kirkpatrick, the renowned flanker, scored his 11th try in 1973. He took the record up to 16 by 1977.

1983-1988: Stu Wilson took the record in 1983 and moved it on to 19 in the same test by scoring a hat trick against the Lions in his last year in Black.

1988-1999: John Kirwan scored his 20th try in 1988 and advanced the record further than any previous holder by add another 15 to go to 35 by 1994. JK was aided by being able to play more tests than any of the previous record holders. Stu Wilson, for example, played 34 tests in 7 years, JK played 63 over 11 years.

1999-2002: Jeff Wilson passed JK's mark at RWC1999, climbing to 44 tries by the end of his glittering career in 2001.

2002-2007: Close on Wilson's heels was his All Blacks team mate, Christian Cullen, who over took Goldie in 2002, adding just 2 tries to the record before his premature axing from the team.

2007-????: Doug Howlett surpassed Jeff in 2007, also his last year in black, adding a further 3 to move the record to 49, a mark which still stands 8 years later, making his the longest reign since John Kirwan.


Who next?
Julian Savea has been tearing it up, scoring 38 tries in only 41 tests (39 starts) or 0.93 tries per test. No other All Black has scored as many tries as quickly. Savea, Wilson, Cullen and Howlett are joined by Rokocoko (46) in the 38+ club. Savea reached 38 in his 39th test, Jeff Wilson in his 52nd, Howlett in his 48th, Cullen in his 47th, and Rokocoko just behind the Bus in hitting that mark in his 42nd test

If Savea remains fit and keeps scoring at this rate, he will need to play in 13 of the All Blacks' 14 tests scheduled for this year to take the record.

The next highest current player is Kieran Read on 20. If Reado maintains his current scoring rate (and Savea disappears) he could take the record from Howlett by his 209th test match, in about 2028.

Savea in fact played in only 11 of NZ's 14 tests in 2016, plus 2 out of 8 this year. But his scoring rate has dropped markedly. He was on 0.93 tries/test at the time of the above post. Since then he's scored "only" 0.62 tries/test, leaving him at second equal on the All Blacks' tryscoring list along with Cullen and Joe Rokocoko (who reached 46 after Howlett had taken the record from Cullen). Despite slowing down a bit, he is still the fastest to 46, hitting that mark in 53 tests. Cullen took 54, Howlett 60 and Rokocoko 64. At his 2016-17 rate, Savea would need to play another 7 matches to overtake Howlett. As matters stand, this looks unlikley.

Read has been overtaken by Ben Smith as the next most prolific current player. Smith was on 19, one behind Reado at the start of 2016 after 48 tests (0.40/test). Since then, there has been some sort of change in him or the systems because he has rocketed to 29 in only 16 tests (at 0.56/test). That puts him 11th on the all-time list. If he can last another 3 seasons as a first choice player he might challenge for the record but at 31 years old this seems unlikely.

Read has seriously dropped off the pace. He had 20 off 84 games in 2016 (0.23/tests). He scored in the first test of 2016 but has not added to his tally since in a further 19 tests! (0.05/test for 2016-17)

Other possibe future contenders include:
Beauden Barrett - 23 tries in 57 tests but only 27 starts. He's 26 and a more regular starter now.
MIlner-Skudder - 11 tries in only 10 tests, but seems unlikely to have a long, injury-free career.
Ioane - 7 in 7, but just starting out.
O. Franks- After a world record run of 95 caps without a single dot-down to his name, he is due for a golden run.

[Lizard]

It must be deliberate by now. In matches he has played in, the All Blacks have scored 379 tries and 3184 points.

[Lizard]

Franks has played in four tests in which the All Blacks scored 12 or more tries, involving up to 11 different try-scorers in a match. Work shy bastard.

[scuzzaman]

Came across this somewhere on eh intertubez ... All Blacks nilling other sides since 2000:

5. vs South Africa, 57-0, 2017
4. vs Ireland, 60-0, 2012
3. vs Samoa, 78-0, 2017
2. vs Fiji, 91-0, 2005
1. vs Tonga, 102-0, 2000

Massive reversals of fortune in that table, when you consider what the Irish have done to us since, and what the Saffers used to be like not long ago.

[Lizard]

Interesting thing about that, is none of them are RWC pool games, which undoubtedly provide our weakest opposition. Makes you wonder if the All Blacks approach those games with the same intensity as matches against the Island teams which invariably serve as warm-ups for July tours.

[Lizard]

Today’s statistic:

Assuming that Liam Messam remains a 7s specialist and does not play any tests against Wales in June, and assuming that Dylan Hartley is not banned, injured or dropped for either Wales or the Aussie tour, then by the end of the June tours, old boys of Rotorua Boys High School will have won more caps for foreign test sides than for the All Blacks. That point might be reached even sooner if Teimana Harrison is elevated from the national training squad to pull on the red rose.

All Blacks RBHS Old Boys (caps):
Liam Messam (43)
Tom Donnelly (15)
Arthur Stone (9)
Trevor Berghan (3)
Alan McNaughton (3)
Craig Newby (3)
Neville Black (1)
Mike Delaney (1)

Total: 79


Poached RBHS Old Boys (nation caps) plus possibles:
Dylan Hartley (England 71)
Garrick Cowley (Samoa 4)
Teimana Harrison (England 0)
Richard Kingi (Australia 0 but played 1 tour game in 2009 and is still playing)

Total: 75

Another update:

Haretley now has 86 caps and Harrison 5. So that's 95 RBHS caps for foreign countries and 79 for the All Blacks.

Wesley or St Stephens might have similar stats?

[Lizard]

Most test losses by nation
Inspired by an online quiz where you had to name the 10 All Blacks with 15 or more losses (I got 8/10 - poor effort), here are the players with the most test losses for select nations.* Italicised names are those that are not also their nation's most-capped player.

Italy: Sergio Parisse 93**
Wales: Gethin Jenkins 65
Scotland: Chris Paterson 65
Portugal: Vasco Uva 57***
Australia: Stephen Moore 52
Ireland: Ronan O'Gara 52
Russia: Victor Gresev 49
Argentina: Juan Manual Leguizamon 49
Canada: Aaron Carpenter 48
Japan: Yukio Motoki 47
USA: Mike MacDonald 46
South Africa: Victor Matfield 46
Spain: Jaime Nava de Olano 44
Romania: Romeo Gontineac 41
Uruguay: Rodrigo Sanchez 41
France: Fabien Pelous 38
Georgia: Merab Kvirikashvili 37
Fiji: Nicky Little 34
Samoa: Census Johnstone/Brian Lima 31
England: Joe Worsley 30
Namibia: Eugene Jantjies 29
Tonga: Nili Latu 28
Germany: Kehoma Brenner 26
Czechia: Pavel Syrovy 22
Brazil: Bruxinho Piero de Moraes 21
New Zealand: Justin Marshall/Andrew Mehrtens 19

In most cases where the "biggest loser" is not the most capped, there's only one or two caps/losses in it. Stephen Moore however has played 16 fewer tests than Gregan but lost 8 more times - a stark illustration of the Wallabies recent dip in fortune. Worsley's 30 losses from 78 caps is also impressive set aside Leonard's 26 from 114 (Toby Flood has 28 from 60!).


*Losses for Lions/PI not counted
**Sergio has some stiff competition. The top 11 for all countries are all Italian
***Vasco appears to have retired last year so may soon be overtaken by his brother Gonçalo who is currently on 55

[Lizard]

Actually, Strine for "Italian" is "Phuqindaygo"

[Lizard]

I've been thinking about a fairer way to calculate "losingest" players. The straight number of losses is basically a funvtion of career length and team strength, not individual ineptitude. It is grossly unfair to Sergio Parisse to award him the title simply because he has the fortitude to stick it out for 100+ tests as the only actual test-class player in a shit team that chooses to only play out of it's depth.

It seems to me that a true losingest player is one that drags his team down simply by taking the field. So here is a list of the players (6N, RC only) with individual success percentages that are the smallest proportion of their nation's overall success precentage during the pro era. To ensure the players have had a reasonable sort of career and not make the list simply because a brief test spot coincided with a general dip in form I've imposed a minimum of 10 tests.


Ireland (57.41%): MC McCall (10.00%) = 17.42%
Argentina (51.96%): N Lobo (10.00%) = 19.25%
Scotland (41.15%): DJ Lee (8.33%) = 20.24%
Italy (27.75%): A Esposito, E Padovani, M Phillips, A Steyn (7.14%) = 25.75%
France (58.49%): R Taofifenua (20.00%) = 34.19%
South Africa (62.92%): F de Klerk (27.27%) = 43.34%
England (64.63%): SA Perry (28.57%) = 44.21%
Wales (50.57%): GM Thomas (29.16%) = 57.66%
Australia (62.00%): DS Haylett-Petty = 62.71%
New Zealand (84.77%): RK Willis (58.33%) = 68.81%

[Lizard]

And the converse - "winningest" players with the success rate that is the highet proportion of their nation's overall success rate (6N/RC teams, pro era, minimum 10 starts):

Italy (27.75%): M Cuttitta (57.69%) = 207.89%
Wales (50.57%): G Lewis (81.25%) = 160.67%
Argentina (51.96%): H Senillosa (81.81%) = 157.44%
Scotland (41.45%): JAA Ansbro (63.63%) = 153.51%
England (64.63%): OM Itoje (91.66%) = 141.82%
France (58.49%): A Penaud (81.81%) = 139.87%
Ireland (57.41%): FJ Sheahan (79.31%) = 138.15%
South Africa (62.92%): AC Garvey (85.71%) = 136.22%
Australia (62.00%): JS Little (83.78%) = 135.51%
New Zealand (84.77%): ST Piutau (100%) = 117.97%


There's a couple of flaws in this system. First, in some cases depending on selection policies it might just be identifying players only trusted agaisnt weak opposition. Secondly because, as shown by Perfect Piutau, a player in a very good team can only lift them so far above their overall success rate. In order to move even one place up in the pecking order, Piutau would have needed to win 23 of his 17 tests.

[Lizard]

This weekend the All Blacks are looking for a clean sweep of The Rugby Championship, and the Pumas will be fighting for at least a draw to avoid a whitewash.

3N/TRC Clean Sweeps

TriNations (began 1996)*
1996: All Blacks
1997: All Blacks
1998: Springboks
2003: All Blacks
2010: All Blacks

TRC (began 2012)**
2012: All Blacks
2013: All Blacks
2015: Wallabies**
2016: All Blacks

3N/TRC Whitewashes

TriNations
1998: All Blacks
2005: Wallabies

TRC
2013: Pumas
2015: Springboks**

*4 rounds 1996-2005; 6 rounds 2006, 2008-2010; 4 rounds in RWC years 2007, 2011
**6 rounds 2012-2014, 2016; 3 rounds RWC year 2015

[scuzzaman]

And the converse - "winningest" players with the success rate that is the highet proportion of their nation's overall success rate (6N/RC teams, pro era, minimum 10 starts):

Italy (27.75%): M Cuttitta (57.69%) = 207.89%
Wales (50.57%): G Lewis (81.25%) = 160.67%
Argentina (51.96%): H Senillosa (81.81%) = 157.44%
Scotland (41.45%): JAA Ansbro (63.63%) = 153.51%
England (64.63%): OM Itoje (91.66%) = 141.82%
France (58.49%): A Penaud (81.81%) = 139.87%
Ireland (57.41%): FJ Sheahan (79.31%) = 138.15%
South Africa (62.92%): AC Garvey (85.71%) = 136.22%
Australia (62.00%): JS Little (83.78%) = 135.51%
New Zealand (84.77%): ST Piutau (100%) = 117.97%


There's a couple of flaws in this system. First, in some cases depending on selection policies it might just be identifying players only trusted agaisnt weak opposition. Secondly because, as shown by Perfect Piutau, a player in a very good team can only lift them so far above their overall success rate. In order to move even one place up in the pecking order, Piutau would have needed to win 23 of his 17 tests.

The worse the nation is, the better the player looks. Hence Italian Cuttitta's place at the top of this table. Need some way to neutralise that effect.

[scuzzaman]

The All Blacks noted this little stat in their release of the team for this weekend:

The All Blacks have scored 49 tries this year, so the next one makes 50 – and that will be the 13th time this century. It is ten years since any other team has reached 50 tries.

(in a calendar year, one assumes?)

Not too arrogant to assume the All Blacks will score at least one try this weekend, given their average per game so far.

Makes me kind of weepy tho, to remember all those pundit/wankers talking for the last 25 years about how the professional era would inevitably destroy New Zealand's pre-eminence, when in fact we've become more dominant than ever before. Life is strange.

[rowan]

New Zealand has certainly exceeded my expectations in the pro era, but really it shouldn't be too surprising, as it is the only country in the world, apart from the Pacific Islands, where rugby is the number 1 sport - and thus receives full backing from the nation, as well as pride of place in the media. Prior to the professional era New Zealand was suffering badly, with Polynesian players shunning the game en masse due to continuing contacts with Apartheid South Africa. League was increasingly perceived as the working man's game, and amateur union offered no way out. Meanwhile, a generation of Pacific Islanders had grown up in New Zealand since immigration had begun to open up in the late 50s and early 60s. The All Blacks had suffered in the late 70s and early 80s against increasingly professional opponents, and not until the advent of a World Cup did they finally venture into the shamateur zone themselves. So it all came together in the late 80s and early 90s, with the game turning legally pro, NZ winning the inaugural World Cup, South Africa emerging from the Apartheid era and Polynesians returning to the game en masse. & the franchise system has worked sublimely for a nation with a small economy but a large pool of world class players. Kudos to them.

[Lizard]

So the All Blacks are dominating while rebuilding. Nice.

Players used in TRC:
All Blacks: 36
Arg: 30
Aus: 29
SA: 29

Players to have played all 5 tests:
All Blacks: 9
Arg: 14
Aus: 15
SA: 15

This was pinched from Scotty Stevenson’s Twitter.

[rowan]

New Zealand has certainly exceeded my expectations in the pro era, but really it shouldn't be too surprising, as it is the only country in the world, apart from the Pacific Islands, where rugby is the number 1 sport - and thus receives full backing from the nation, as well as pride of place in the media. Prior to the professional era New Zealand was suffering badly, with Polynesian players shunning the game en masse due to continuing contacts with Apartheid South Africa. League was increasingly perceived as the working man's game, and amateur union offered no way out. Meanwhile, a generation of Pacific Islanders had grown up in New Zealand since immigration had begun to open up in the late 50s and early 60s. The All Blacks had suffered in the late 70s and early 80s against increasingly professional opponents, and not until the advent of a World Cup did they finally venture into the shamateur zone themselves. So it all came together in the late 80s and early 90s, with the game turning legally pro, NZ winning the inaugural World Cup, South Africa emerging from the Apartheid era and Polynesians returning to the game en masse. & the franchise system has worked sublimely for a nation with a small economy but a large pool of world class players. Kudos to them.

Of course, this has been coincidental with the unexpected demise of most of their main rivals for one reason or another. South Africa continues to struggle with the political transition and integration process, while France has been weakened by an inundation of foreign players into its club leagues. Australia, meanwhile, is the most unfairly judged team in international rugby due mostly to its regular contacts with the almighty Kiwis. We forget that union is only a minor sport on the Red Continent, confined largely to the East Coast where it continues to live in the shadow of its 13-man counterpart, and that for many decades the Wallabies had hardly been taken seriously. Their heydey was undoubtedly in the 80s & 90s, when the All Blacks had yet to reach their potential in the pro era and South Africa were either politically isolated (or still recovering from it), but they've made two World Cup finals since the turn of the century - including the last one, of course. As for the Home Unions, overall there has been some improvement, as the recent Lions series indicates, though still not enough to close the gap on the All Blacks in general terms.

[Lizard]

Statistics, man. It’s a statistics thread.

[morepork]

I rection

[rowan]

So no analytical comment nor replying to other posters' comments then? Sounds a little bit weird to me.

[Lizard]

Assuming no changes to the named Springboks team, this weekend Steve Kitshoff will start his first test after a world record 18 appearances only off the bench.

Most caps without a single start:
18: S Kitshoff* (SA) (Named to start this weekend)
15: LB Gill (Aust)
14: B Duarte (Rom)
11: A Gordas* (Rom), MT Mbonambi* (SA), S Scott (Sco), KNJS Sinckler* (Eng/Lions), D Williams (USA)
10: M Bender (Ger), N Lobo (Arg), MJ Moore (Ire)
9: I Colati Koliavu (Fiji), P Ceccarelli* (Ita), C Chat* (Fra), AOHM Tu'ungafasi* (NZ), MH Shimange*(SA), BG Burdette (USA)

*Active players

[Lizard]

So no analytical comment nor replying to other posters' comments then? Sounds a little bit weird to me.

Dude - you were replaying to yourself and not analysing any stats. I mean, if that's your thing then its cool, man, just like this is the thread for stats. Like, you could have put up some numbers showing "Polynesian players shunning the game en masse due to continuing contacts with Apartheid South Africa" or something, or showing how "The All Blacks had suffered in the late 70s and early 80s against increasingly professional opponents" eg:

All Blacks Post WWII success rate by decade:
1950s: 75.0%
1960s: 86.9%
1970s: 63.3%
1980s: 81.6%
1990s: 75.0%
2000s: 82.3%
2010s: 90.8%*

*To date. Also, this is a ridiculous number.

[rowan]

That sounds a little too dictative and confining for me. I am simply providing the benefit of my insight, which is extensive enough without the need to go digging through the stats.

[morepork]

Let us bathe in the magnificence of your extensiveness.

I mean, what sort of a weirdo brings data to a discussion.

Wouldn't take it too personally mate. It's not the point.

[rowan]

You present your stats and have a problem with people offering analytical comment, sharing their insight and responding to other posters' comments? That's very, very weird - while Morepork's comments are embarrassingly infantile as usual.