Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

Of course, South Africa's 0-44 win over Scotland in 1951 would have been 0-62 by today's scoring values, with 9 tries, 7 conversions and a drop-goal. Not a single penalty, because in those days there were far fewer than today, in spite of all kinds of efforts to reverse the trend, including changing the scoring values. So that 0-44 win stood out among lopsided results among the leading playing nations of the amateur era, and was only surpassed during the shamateur and early pro eras when basically still amateur Home Unions headed Down Under to be torn asunder.

Good point

[Lizard]

Also, I'm not sure how low you are prepared to go with this, but Guatemala beat El Salvador 114-0 a month or so ago, while Namibia blanked Senegal 95-0 in the African Gold Cup in July and Portugal beat Moldova 59-0 in the ENC 2nd division March - and I'm sure I could dig up plenty more examples from bygone years if I had a few months available to do the research . . .

Yes, there's shitloads of 50+ to 0 results; 179 overall, I think. Brazil alone has been involved in 14 - 6 on the winning side and 8 on the losing side.

[Lizard]

This: https://keo.co.za/springboks-statistical-shocker/

[Lizard]

The All Blacks have scored 1920 points against the Springboks, conceding 1458. The overall balance was generally in favour of the Springboks until the post-apartheid/professional era and most of this 462 point discrepancy has accumulated in the last few years. Below is the break down by decade. Remember that in the amateur days, NZ played only 3 to 8 tests per decade against the Springboks, as opposed to 20+

This list gives the cumulative points difference by decade, the average points difference per test for that decade and then the cumulative per test figure in brackets.

Whichever way you slice it, this century has not been kind to South African rugby.

1920s: -9, -1.3 (-1.3)
1930s: -21, -4.0 (-2.1)
1940s: -40, -4.8 (-2.9)
1950s: -28, +3.0 (-1.6)
1960s: -8, +2.5 (-0.3)
1970s: -41, -4.1 (-1.2)
1980s: -45, -1.3* (-1.2)
1990s: +35, +4.7 (+0.6)
2000s: +212, +7.4 (+2.7)
2010s: +462, +15.6 (+4.9)

*excluding Cavaliers tour

[scuzzaman]

The Springboks have conceded 50+ points on 5 occasions. 4 of those have come at the hands of the All Blacks. The other was courtesy of the English in 2002.

This is the first time they have failed to score while conceding 50+.

I had a look at the RC table before the game, and it was obvious that the All Blacks (while dominant) had been shipping a lot more tries than usual, as well. The Against figures were markedly higher than normal, even as you could make the same case for the For column.

I expected us to win in similar manner to the game against Australia ... something like 50 to 30 would have been more in keeping with the rest of this season.

57 - 0 against South Africa is just gob-smacking.

[rowan]

Indeed!

[Lizard]

TRC Points conceded per game by season:

2012: Arg 27.7, Aus 22.8, NZ 11.0, SA 18.2
2013: Arg 37.3, Aus 28.3, NZ 19.2, SA 19.5
2014: Arg 26.2, Aus 26.7, NZ 15.2, SA 18.3
2015*: Arg 32.7, Aus 16.0, NZ 21.7, SA 29.3
2016: Arg 36.0, Aus 24.5, NZ 14.0, SA 30.0
2017**: Arg 40.5, Aus 33.0, NZ 21.25, SA 29.5

*3 round tournament
**After 4 rounds

I’m not sure there’s much in the way of a pattern. So far there’s a bit of an uptick this year for everyone except the Springboks.

[scuzzaman]

TRC Points conceded per game by season:

2012: Arg 27.7, Aus 22.8, NZ 11.0, SA 18.2
2013: Arg 37.3, Aus 28.3, NZ 19.2, SA 19.5
2014: Arg 26.2, Aus 26.7, NZ 15.2, SA 18.3
2015*: Arg 32.7, Aus 16.0, NZ 21.7, SA 29.3
2016: Arg 36.0, Aus 24.5, NZ 14.0, SA 30.0
2017**: Arg 40.5, Aus 33.0, NZ 21.25, SA 29.5

*3 round tournament
**After 4 rounds

I’m not sure there’s much in the way of a pattern. So far there’s a bit of an uptick this year for everyone except the Springboks.

Yes, but with only 4 games counted, a 0 in the Against column can change the average significantly.

21.25 x 4 = 85.

Since Game 4 was a 0 Against, for 3 games 85/3 = 28.33 ... more than an extra converted try per game.

That's a high average for the All Blacks, but unremarkable for Argentina, recent South African sides, and occasional Australian sides.

[rowan]

Interesting stats.

[Lizard]

The last year in which the All Blacks failed to post at least one score of 50+ was 2009, when they peaked at 39-12 v France in the last test of the year.

[rowan]

Amazing!

[Lizard]

Most recent year* not scoring 50+ in a test:
NZ 2009
Eng 2010
Arg 2010
Wales 2013
Ire 2014
Fra 2015
Aust 2016
Italy 2016
Sco 2016
SA 2016

*Excluding 2017

Most recent concession of 50+:
SA v NZ 2017
Aust v NZ 2017
Sco v Eng 2017
Ita v Ire 2017
Arg v NZ 2016
Fra v NZ 2015
Ire v NZ 2012
Wales v Eng 2007
Eng v SA 2007
NZ N/A

[scuzzaman]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

[Lizard]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

Oops. It was meant to be in there. Edited now.

[rowan]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

[scuzzaman]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

So, doing the math (cheating using XL of course) there's a negative 0.45 correlation between tests played and ranking, across the whole sample.

There's a negative 0.55 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T1 sample (although I redefined it only to include the top 12 current IRB World Rugby rankings, because these qualify for the next RWC, which is a presumed goal*).

There's a positive 0.36 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T2 sample (similarly redefined as those listed outside the top 12 current World Rugby rankings).

What this tells us is, I think, not much. You *could* argue that the T1 teams are playing too many games per year; this is the strongest supported inference of the three calculations. You could argue less strongly that the T2 teams are not playing enough tests per year.

The average number of tests in (my) T1 sample is 11.42
The average number of tests in (my) T2 sample is 9.36

(*The correlation for the originally listed T1 is negative 0.44, with an average number of tests of 11.9.
The correlation for the originally listed T2 is positive 0.31, with an average number of tests of 9.31)

Logically, this leaves 10 tests per year as the sweet spot.

Sure would make the statistics easier!

[scuzzaman]

Argentina's most recent concession of 50+?

Just to balance the two lists ...

Oops. It was meant to be in there. Edited now.

You're a national treasure.

Thanks.

[rowan]

Number of tests this year for T2/3

11 - Georgia, Brazil, Uruguay
10 - USA, Canada, Chile, Japan, Romania, Russia
9 - Namibia, Spain, Germany, Kenya
8 - Fiji
7 - Samoa
5 - Tonga

Number of tests this year for T1

14 - Australia, New Zealand
13 - South Africa
12 - Argentina
11 - England, Wales, Scotland, France, Italy, Ireland

So, doing the math (cheating using XL of course) there's a negative 0.45 correlation between tests played and ranking, across the whole sample.

There's a negative 0.55 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T1 sample (although I redefined it only to include the top 12 current IRB World Rugby rankings, because these qualify for the next RWC, which is a presumed goal*).

There's a positive 0.36 correlation between tests played and ranking in the T2 sample (similarly redefined as those listed outside the top 12 current World Rugby rankings).

What this tells us is, I think, not much. You *could* argue that the T1 teams are playing too many games per year; this is the strongest supported inference of the three calculations. You could argue less strongly that the T2 teams are not playing enough tests per year.

The average number of tests in (my) T1 sample is 11.42
The average number of tests in (my) T2 sample is 9.36

(*The correlation for the originally listed T1 is negative 0.44, with an average number of tests of 11.9.
The correlation for the originally listed T2 is positive 0.31, with an average number of tests of 9.31)

Logically, this leaves 10 tests per year as the sweet spot.

Sure would make the statistics easier!

Precisely

[rowan]

Which countries have scored centuries in official test matches, and which have conceded them? That would be interesting.

[rowan]

Here's a few from Rugbydata, but some are obviously missing, including Kenya 100 Tunisia 10, & Guatemala 114 El Salvador 0 this year alone . . .


09 Sep 2003 Rwanda 9 - 107 Zambia
18 May 1994 Portugal 11 - 102 Wales Universitario Lisboa
Lisbon, Portugal
01 May 2004 Argentina 147 - 7 Venezuela Prince of Wales Country Club
Santiago, Chile
11 Jun 2005 South Africa 134 - 3 Uruguay Basil Kenyon Stadium
East London, South Africa
02 Nov 2003 England 111 - 13 Uruguay Lang Park
Brisbane, Australia
14 May 2011 Paraguay 6 - 102 Uruguay
21 Aug 1999 England 106 - 8 United States Twickenham
London, England
05 May 2012 Japan 106 - 3 United Arab Emirates
11 Sep 2003 Burundi 0 - 100 Uganda Lusaka
Lusaka, Zambia
16 Jun 2000 New Zealand 102 - 0 Tonga North Harbour
15 Oct 1999 England 101 - 10 Tonga Twickenham
London, England
05 May 2001 Luxembourg 3 - 116 Sweden Cessange
Cessange, Luxembourg
21 Jun 2014 Mauritius 134 - 0 Swaziland
10 May 2014 Japan 132 - 10 Sri Lanka
09 Oct 2002 Japan 129 - 6 Sri Lanka
21 Aug 1969 Fiji 113 - 13 Solomon Islands Army Barracks
Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
27 Oct 1994 Hong Kong 164 - 13 Singapore Petaling Jaya Stadium
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
12 Nov 2005 Germany 108 - 0 Serbia & Montenegro Heidelburg
Heidelburg, Germany
03 Sep 2008 New Zealand 101 - 14 Samoa Yarrow Stadium
New Plymouth, New Zealand
13 May 2000 Denmark 7 - 104 Russia
17 Nov 2001 England 134 - 0 Romania Twickenham
London, England
21 Sep 1976 Bulgaria 0 - 100 Romania Burgas
Burgas, Bulgaria
02 Jul 1976 Bulgaria 0 - 100 Romania
15 Sep 2007 New Zealand 108 - 13 Portugal Stade Gerland
Lyon, France
20 Apr 2013 Japan 121 - 0 Philippines
26 Apr 2014 Hong Kong 108 - 0 Philippines
02 Jul 2008 Brunei 0 - 101 Philippines
01 May 2002 Argentina 152 - 0 Paraguay Mendoza
Mendoza, Argentina
27 Apr 2003 Argentina 144 - 0 Paraguay Defensor SC
Montevideo, Uruguay
03 May 2003 Chile 102 - 0 Paraguay Defensor SC
Montevideo, Uruguay
11 Jul 2009 Samoa 115 - 7 Papua New Guinea
11 Sep 1983 Fiji 124 - 4 Niue Apia Park
Apia, Samoa
01 Aug 1987 Zimbabwe 111 - 12 Nigeria Nairobi
Nairobi, Kenya
04 Jun 1995 Japan 17 - 145 New Zealand Vodacom Park
Bloemfontein, South Africa
14 Nov 1998 England 110 - 0 Netherlands McAlpine Stadium
Huddersfield, England
25 Oct 2003 Australia 142 - 0 Namibia Adelaide Oval
Adelaide, Australia
15 Aug 2007 South Africa 105 - 13 Namibia Newlands
Cape Town, South Africa
05 Nov 1996 Korea 112 - 5 Malaysia
03 Nov 1996 Hong Kong 103 - 5 Malaysia
12 Nov 1988 Korea 102 - 0 Malaysia
5 Jun 2002 Namibia 116 - 0 Madagascar Windhoek
Windhoek, Namibia
22 Mar 2003 Tonga 119 - 0 Korea Teufaiva
Nuku Alofa, Tonga
15 May 2010 Japan 101 - 7 Kazakhstan
13 Nov 2004 Scotland 100 - 8 Japan McDiarmid Park
Perth, Scotland
21 Jul 2002 Chinese Taipei 3 - 120 Japan Tainan
Tainan, Chinese Taipei
13 May 2011 United Arab Emirates 0 - 111 Japan
14 Oct 1999 New Zealand 101 - 3 Italy McAlpine Stadium
Huddersfield, England
19 Jun 1999 South Africa 101 - 0 Italy ABSA Stadium
Durban, South Africa
09 Nov 1996 Chinese Taipei 12 - 114 Hong Kong
10 Oct 1987 Denmark 100 - 0 Finland Eskilstuna
Eskilstuna, Sweden
18 May 1994 Italy 104 - 8 Czech Republic Viadana
Viadana, Italy
28 Jun 2014 Fiji 108 - 6 Cook Islands
07 Jul 2002 Japan 155 - 3 Chinese Taipei Chichibu Stadium
Tokyo, Japan
27 Oct 1998 Japan 134 - 6 Chinese Taipei Singapore
Singapore, Singapore
30 Jun 2002 Korea 119 - 7 Chinese Taipei Seoul
Seoul, Korea
09 Sep 2006 Korea 100 - 3 China Oryu Stadium
Seoul, Korea
10 Dec 2005 Mauritius 108 - 3 Burkina Faso
23 May 2012 Argentina 111 - 0 Brazil Mahuida Parque Reina
Santiago, Chile
09 Oct 1979 Argentina 109 - 3 Brazil Prince of Wales Country Club
Santiago, Chile
08 Oct 1989 Argentina 103 - 9 Brazil Montevideo
Montevideo, Uruguay
07 Sep 1996 Zimbabwe 130 - 10 Botswana Bulawayo
Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
24 Sep 1995 Paraguay 9 - 103 Argentina Asuncion
Asuncion, Paraguay
02 Oct 1993 Brazil 3 - 114 Argentina San Pablo
San Pablo, Brazil
21 Sep 1985 Paraguay 3 - 102 Argentina Asuncion
Asuncion, Paraguay
03 May 2008 Japan 114 - 6 Arabian Gulf

http://www.rugbydata.com/centuries/

[Lizard]

Which countries have scored centuries in official test matches, and which have conceded them? That would be interesting.

I'm sure I've done that before (possibly on a previous board).

Scoring 100+:
Argentina
Australia
Chile
Colombia
Denmark
England
Estonia
Fiji
Germany
Hong Kong
Italy
Japan
Kenya
Korea
Mauritius
Namibia
New Zealand
Philippines
Romania
Russia
Samoa
Scotland
South Africa
Sweden
Tonga
Uganda
Uruguay
Wales
Zambia
Zimbabwe


Conceding 100+:
Arabian Gulf
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei
Bulgaria
Burundi
Chinese Taipei
Cook Islands
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Ecuador
Finland
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malaysia
Namibia
Netherlands
New Caledonia
Nigeria
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Rwanda
Samoa
Serbia and Montenegro
Singapore
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Swaziland
Tahiti
Thailand
Tonga
Tunisia
United Arab Emirates
United States of America
Uruguay
Venezuela

Teams that have managed both:
Denmark
Italy
Japan
Korea
Namibia
Philippines
Romania
Samoa
Tonga
Uruguay

This includes matches where only one team awarded caps. There has only been one such match where the uncapped side conceded a ton - Estonia v Montengrin President's XV, 2014-16 ENC Div 3. Greece withdrew from the contest and were replaced by the Montenegrin President's side.

[Lizard]

Looks like Sudamérica Rugby Cup 2017 div C hasn't made it onto Statsguru either.

[rowan]

So Italy are the only tier 1 nation to have conceded one, of course, while France & Ireland are the only two tier 1 nations not to have scored one. However, French XVs have scored a few, and I think their opponents, at least, considered them to be test matches. These include 104-3 v Tunisia in 1979, 106-12 v Paraguay in 1988, 126-6 v Croatia in 1993 and 100-3 v Portugal in 1997. Brazil had a lucky escape back in the mid-70s, holding the French to precisely 99 points. Meanwhile, Fiji, Georgia & Canada are the only tier 2 nations not to have been on the receiving end of a test century, though the latter did concede one Against Australia A in 2002.

[rowan]

At a glance Japan appears to have the most with 10 official test tons, followed by Argentina on 8 & NZ on 5. Of course, Japan was among NZ's 5 victims.

[rowan]

Paraguay appear to have conceded the most tons - 6, which is twice as many as any other nation, 4 were against Argentina, 1 against Uruguay and 1 against Chile. They were also on the receiving end of the biggest loss on record 0 - 152 to Argentina. Hong Kong have the highest score in an official test, beating Singapore 164 - 13. Meanwhile, at a quick count 42 nations have conceded tons, so it's really not that unusual, and 30 nations have scored them. & at a very quick count there have been 66 tons registered in total.