Brexit delayed

[Digby]

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

I'd suggest yes you should care how your fellows are doing, if for no other reason than the society you live in and its ability to deliver services will impact you and your family. Ideally one would care by dint of being a reasonable person too, but even just self interest would suffice supposing people are able to think that far ahead.

I suggest you listen to your own advice then. All you've done so far on this thread is moan how you've lost contracts, that we'll all be worse of - without stopping to think that might not be the case for 'all' - and that anyone who voted for leave is a retard. Doesn't sound like the acts of a reasonable person to me.

Well losing contracts does hurt me, to the extent I now essentially don't get paid and thus all ongoing payments are met by my family and/or using up savings and that does vex me somewhat. However the bigger concern around Brexit, as I can always extricate myself from this mess, is that losing contracts has meant jobs being lost, either being moved overseas or simply outright culled. And that with the less certain future the firm in addition to reducing employment has backed away from investing, and that's a pattern I can all too easily repeating. I'd also be concerned about what future standards will be in any number of areas, what linkage we'll see on a security, scientific, cultural basis and so on and so on.

Also when saying all I don't mean every last individual solely at an individual level, more all within our one society, some individuals will always do better/worse but even if we do better as individuals in a given situation we're still inexorably to that society.

[Mellsblue]

I'd suggest yes you should care how your fellows are doing, if for no other reason than the society you live in and its ability to deliver services will impact you and your family. Ideally one would care by dint of being a reasonable person too, but even just self interest would suffice supposing people are able to think that far ahead.

I suggest you listen to your own advice then. All you've done so far on this thread is moan how you've lost contracts, that we'll all be worse of - without stopping to think that might not be the case for 'all' - and that anyone who voted for leave is a retard. Doesn't sound like the acts of a reasonable person to me.

Well losing contracts does hurt me, to the extent I now essentially don't get paid and thus all ongoing payments are met by my family and/or using up savings and that does vex me somewhat. However the bigger concern around Brexit, as I can always extricate myself from this mess, is that losing contracts has meant jobs being lost, either being moved overseas or simply outright culled. And that with the less certain future the firm in addition to reducing employment has backed away from investing, and that's a pattern I can all too easily repeating. I'd also be concerned about what future standards will be in any number of areas, what linkage we'll see on a security, scientific, cultural basis and so on and so on.

Also when saying all I don't mean every last individual solely at an individual level, more all within our one society, some individuals will always do better/worse but even if we do better as individuals in a given situation we're still inexorably to that society.

That is bad news for you, horrible. I've went through a similar situation in 2010 - when all the bankers free money ran out - and there is little worse than seeing savings dwindle, worrying when you'll start earning again and not being able to do anything about it.
However, this is how people born in to cut off, deprived areas have felt for years. Even during the boom years. That the economy doesn't work for them and that there aren't many signs it is going to move in their direction.
They will now be quite happy with the Brexit process so far and won't agree that it's going to make us all worse off. You might see job losses in your sector but employment across the board is up and people in places such as Scarborough might not agree that, as things stand, we are all worse off. That, of course, may change.
Anyway, I'm out. We did end up repeating old arguments as I feared. Though, that is the Brexit debate in microcosm. Unless you're Corbyn, that is. He's changed his stance so many times he seems to have decided to avoid any arguments at all. I hope things at work improve soon.

[Digby]

I suggest you listen to your own advice then. All you've done so far on this thread is moan how you've lost contracts, that we'll all be worse of - without stopping to think that might not be the case for 'all' - and that anyone who voted for leave is a retard. Doesn't sound like the acts of a reasonable person to me.

Well losing contracts does hurt me, to the extent I now essentially don't get paid and thus all ongoing payments are met by my family and/or using up savings and that does vex me somewhat. However the bigger concern around Brexit, as I can always extricate myself from this mess, is that losing contracts has meant jobs being lost, either being moved overseas or simply outright culled. And that with the less certain future the firm in addition to reducing employment has backed away from investing, and that's a pattern I can all too easily repeating. I'd also be concerned about what future standards will be in any number of areas, what linkage we'll see on a security, scientific, cultural basis and so on and so on.

Also when saying all I don't mean every last individual solely at an individual level, more all within our one society, some individuals will always do better/worse but even if we do better as individuals in a given situation we're still inexorably to that society.

That is bad news for you, horrible. I've went through a similar situation in 2010 - when all the bankers free money ran out - and there is little worse than seeing savings dwindle, worrying when you'll start earning again and not being able to do anything about it.
However, this is how people born in to cut off, deprived areas have felt for years. Even during the boom years. That the economy doesn't work for them and that there aren't many signs it is going to move in their direction.
They will now be quite happy with the Brexit process so far and won't agree that it's going to make us all worse off. You might see job losses in your sector but employment across the board is up and people in places such as Scarborough might not agree that, as things stand, we are all worse off. That, of course, may change.
Anyway, I'm out. We did end up repeating old arguments as I feared. Though, that is the Brexit debate in microcosm. Unless you're Corbyn, that is. He's changed his stance so many times he seems to have decided to avoid any arguments at all. I hope things at work improve soon.

I have some sympathy, a lot actually, with those who felt the economy wasn't working for them. However they've at best lit upon the idea of doing something different on the basis of what do we have to lose, when there doesn't seem any realistic chance this do anything but more harm to their concerns. I'd further agree we've a lot of thinking/work to do on how do we replace roles/jobs lost to automation as that process is perhaps only just getting warmed up, but again I don't see leaving the EU as being any sort of solution, and as with Trump and his plans we can't go back to when the jobs these people seem to want did exist, the process only goes one way.

By the way, I don't know if you read the work Minford did, but other than he's about the only person predicting we'll do well out of this (whilst being backed by anything other than assumptions, and I'll acknowledge all economic modelling is something of a punt in the dark too) one of his other assumptions was that wage inequality will increase rapidly, so even the one person/group predicting we'll as a nation grow by leaving thinks it'll hurt the blue collar group hard.

And Labour might have changed what they say on the EU, a lot, but I don't get the sense the Glorious Leader™ has changed his tune one bit, he wants nationalisation and socialism, but sometimes we hear instead from Keir Starmer which may muddle the Labour message but isn't of any influence over Corbyn. As with those who feel the economy isn't working for them I do have some sympathy with Corbyn and his dreams of Socialism, but like he idea Brexit will improve things then Socialism seems to me a nutter's dream that works only in fantasy and will fall foul of reality. I wouldn't entirely mind if someone wanted to try and make socialism work and roll it out if it did, I'd still have reservations but I'll skirt over those here, I'd just really much rather we not be the poor bastard lab rats dropped into that experiment, and that such experiment be done far, far away, Mars sounds good to me.

[Digby]

Some of our bigger investors/owners are near pissing themselves laughing this afternoon. They've been asked to sign a letter endorsing the Brexit strategy as set out by May. Their first issue is there isn't a plan to scrutinise before one could even more onto whether it's good or bad

[Mellsblue]

If the strategy is anything like her plans for immigration the laughing will stop the moment they read it.

[Digby]

If the strategy is anything like her plans for immigration the laughing will stop the moment they read it.

It's like she's fixated on the target she failed on as home secretary and can't move past it. The two in question who were laughing today had actually met with some persons in government recently, and some of the latest on immigration isn't close to what they were told would be happening, we haven't had this going on since John Major vacillated and seemingly said yes to different and opposing things depending on who was in the room.

[Mellsblue]

If the strategy is anything like her plans for immigration the laughing will stop the moment they read it.

It's like she's fixated on the target she failed on as home secretary and can't move past it.

This. She's obsessed. It's the same with counting students as immigrants.

[canta_brian]

May:

Wanted to reduce immigration whilst Home Secretary

Campaigned to remain in the EU

Called a snap election to give her government an overall majority in parliament

We are now stuck with her as prime minister whilst the brexit "negotiations" take place, mainly because it would seem no other tory politician would touch the job with a barge pole.

[Sandydragon]

May:

Wanted to reduce immigration whilst Home Secretary

Campaigned to remain in the EU

Called a snap election to give her government an overall majority in parliament

We are now stuck with her as prime minister whilst the brexit "negotiations" take place, mainly because it would seem no other tory politician would touch the job with a barge pole.

Th tories are really in the shyte. Hoping they will last the full parliamentary term and corbyns bubble will burst. Brexit will make them even less popular and the electorate will hurt them next time out. Which is worrying considering the alternative.

Much of politics is confidence, or the portrayal or confidence and competence. May is screwed. Sadly the opportunity to remov her is rapidly disappearing. I was hoping that there could bthey some cross party collaboration, but that seems remote, especially as labour seem to not have settled on what policy they want to pursue.

I don't think the EU is in a better state when you look at the differing views of the member states, but they don't have to try hard to us to look incompetent.

[Digby]

Th tories are really in the shyte.

Tories, Labour and Lib Dems look in a right mess. Which leaves open the door for gains to be made with simplistic nationalistic bollocks by someone, maybe someone new, maybe the Tories or Labour, somehow I don't see the Lb Dems going that route.

[Mellsblue]

May:

Wanted to reduce immigration whilst Home Secretary

Campaigned to remain in the EU

Called a snap election to give her government an overall majority in parliament

We are now stuck with her as prime minister whilst the brexit "negotiations" take place, mainly because it would seem no other tory politician would touch the job with a barge pole.

Th tories are really in the shyte. Hoping they will last the full parliamentary term and corbyns bubble will burst. Brexit will make them even less popular and the electorate will hurt them next time out. Which is worrying considering the alternative.

Much of politics is confidence, or the portrayal or confidence and competence. May is screwed. Sadly the opportunity to remov her is rapidly disappearing. I was hoping that there could bthey some cross party collaboration, but that seems remote, especially as labour seem to not have settled on what policy they want to pursue.

I don't think the EU is in a better state when you look at the differing views of the member states, but they don't have to try hard to us to look incompetent.

She'll last until we leave the EU and then all hell will break loose.

[Mellsblue]

Th tories are really in the shyte.

Tories, Labour and Lib Dems look in a right mess. Which leaves open the door for gains to be made with simplistic nationalistic bollocks by someone, maybe someone new, maybe the Tories or Labour, somehow I don't see the Lb Dems going that route.

Once Brexit is done the Cons will have a big battle between the liberal side of the party and the idiots to the right to take control of the party. This will be brewing over the next 18 months and will explode when May starts to lose control post Brexit. I hope to goodness the moderates win. I can't think of anything more dispiriting than a GE between Corbyn (or his anointed successor) and say Leadsom/Fox. Eeerrrrrgggghhhhh

[Digby]

Th tories are really in the shyte.

Tories, Labour and Lib Dems look in a right mess. Which leaves open the door for gains to be made with simplistic nationalistic bollocks by someone, maybe someone new, maybe the Tories or Labour, somehow I don't see the Lb Dems going that route.

Once Brexit is done the Cons will have a big battle between the liberal side of the party and the idiots to the right to take control of the party. This will be brewing over the next 18 months and will explode when May starts to lose control post Brexit. I hope to goodness the moderates win. I can't think of anything more dispiriting than a GE between Corbyn (or his anointed successor) and say Leadsom/Fox. Eeerrrrrgggghhhhh

Labour have a very similar fight between their moderates and momentum/militant, which until this point the moderates have chickened out on

[Mellsblue]

Tories, Labour and Lib Dems look in a right mess. Which leaves open the door for gains to be made with simplistic nationalistic bollocks by someone, maybe someone new, maybe the Tories or Labour, somehow I don't see the Lb Dems going that route.

Once Brexit is done the Cons will have a big battle between the liberal side of the party and the idiots to the right to take control of the party. This will be brewing over the next 18 months and will explode when May starts to lose control post Brexit. I hope to goodness the moderates win. I can't think of anything more dispiriting than a GE between Corbyn (or his anointed successor) and say Leadsom/Fox. Eeerrrrrgggghhhhh

Labour have a very similar fight between their moderates and momentum/militant, which until this point the moderates have chickened out on

They did. The moderates lost. By how much we'll know after conference season.

[Digby]

Once Brexit is done the Cons will have a big battle between the liberal side of the party and the idiots to the right to take control of the party. This will be brewing over the next 18 months and will explode when May starts to lose control post Brexit. I hope to goodness the moderates win. I can't think of anything more dispiriting than a GE between Corbyn (or his anointed successor) and say Leadsom/Fox. Eeerrrrrgggghhhhh

Labour have a very similar fight between their moderates and momentum/militant, which until this point the moderates have chickened out on

They did. The moderates lost. By how much we'll know after conference season.

That wasn't a fight, that wasn't even the moderates doing that posturing of asking if someone wants a fight. That was ignoring a problem in the hope it goes away of its own accord. If someone wants to call it a fight they've seen some truly pathetic fights.

[Mellsblue]

Labour have a very similar fight between their moderates and momentum/militant, which until this point the moderates have chickened out on

They did. The moderates lost. By how much we'll know after conference season.

That wasn't a fight, that wasn't even the moderates doing that posturing of asking if someone wants a fight. That was ignoring a problem in the hope it goes away of its own accord. If someone wants to call it a fight they've seen some truly pathetic fights.

True.

[Sandydragon]

Th tories are really in the shyte.

Tories, Labour and Lib Dems look in a right mess. Which leaves open the door for gains to be made with simplistic nationalistic bollocks by someone, maybe someone new, maybe the Tories or Labour, somehow I don't see the Lb Dems going that route.

The Lib Dems are at least united - which isn't too difficult with a handful of MPs I suppose. Nonetheless, they still have the grass roots organisation and if they can get a decent message out there, i.e. staying in single market and some nice centralist messaging, they should easily be filling the gap in the middle. Students might not forgive them for the student loans u-turn, but since Corbyn has done the same they should be able to appeal to people who voted Labour or Conservative with their eyes closed last time.

For the Conservatives, I don't see anyone providing the voters with any inspiration. Ruth Davison is my only hope, albeit she would have to find a seat somewhere and the next election might be too soon for her.

[kk67]

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/north ... gal-2017-9

It's staggering that some of these people think they can do whatever the hell they like. The only reason the bank bailout became public knowledge..?.....EU directives and Robert Peston.
Mervyn King has made a surprise re-entry into my list of most hated and untrustworthy people.

[Digby]

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/north ... gal-2017-9

It's staggering that some of these people think they can do whatever the hell they like. The only reason the bank bailout became public knowledge..?.....EU directives and Robert Peston.
Mervyn King has made a surprise re-entry into my list of most hated and untrustworthy people.

Wrong thread? Or do we infer you consider the bank bailouts increased the vote for Brexit?

And it's a tricky one for King. I can understand not wanting to see deposits removed and queues around the block, against which I don't know what the bank was like at that point as regards being able to secure loans from other institutions. I would consider if this was repeated in the next few years everyone would have a much idea of what to do next.

[kk67]

There was a Northern Rock thread but I couldn't be arsed looking for it......and the EU directive that stopped them from hushing it up is linked to Brexit and the current 'power-grab'.

[canta_brian]

We could also compare the suggested brexit bill with the total bill for quantitative easing.

[Sandydragon]

I can completely understand why those in key positions kept information quiet. The damage that could have been caused by a panic. It s a bit naive to expect governments to release every piece of information they hold. In some areas it could do more harm than good.

[Digby]

I can completely understand why those in key positions kept information quiet. The damage that could have been caused by a panic. It s a bit naive to expect governments to release every piece of information they hold. In some areas it could do more harm than good.

I get that, but I do tend toward thinking being honest and open on a standard basis actually helps build trust so people are more inclined to believe you. Also without seeing the figures it'd be hard to know, but one would have to assume Norther Rock was going to the wall whatever was or wasn't said, so why not be honest about the Rock so when you make the claim for the next bank people don't assume you were being secretive as might have King's plan?

I do in the main have a fair amount of respect for King, this one I think he's on the wrong side of, though the pressure was massive, especially with a PM and Chancellor desperate not to use the word 'nationalise' - at least we wouldn't have that problem should dear Jeremy come to power

[Mellsblue]

I can completely understand why those in key positions kept information quiet. The damage that could have been caused by a panic. It s a bit naive to expect governments to release every piece of information they hold. In some areas it could do more harm than good.

I lean more towards this train of thought. I'm all for more openess and transparency but that assumes the general public and some sections of the media look at it dispassionately and with a level head, and I don't believe that will happen.

[Sandydragon]

I can completely understand why those in key positions kept information quiet. The damage that could have been caused by a panic. It s a bit naive to expect governments to release every piece of information they hold. In some areas it could do more harm than good.

I get that, but I do tend toward thinking being honest and open on a standard basis actually helps build trust so people are more inclined to believe you. Also without seeing the figures it'd be hard to know, but one would have to assume Norther Rock was going to the wall whatever was or wasn't said, so why not be honest about the Rock so when you make the claim for the next bank people don't assume you were being secretive as might have King's plan?

I do in the main have a fair amount of respect for King, this one I think he's on the wrong side of, though the pressure was massive, especially with a PM and Chancellor desperate not to use the word 'nationalise' - at least we wouldn't have that problem should dear Jeremy come to power

If NR could have been saved then there was no need to start a panic. Financial services rely on confidence and without it, NR was screwed. We know now that NR was stuffed regardless, but if there as a chance to save it then the Govt and BoE were right to try. I'd suggest that King acted with the best of intentions.