Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

it took the Swiss decades to complete those bilateral agreements.

Yes it did. A lot of that is because they started with nothing and moved towards what they have now rather than the opposite that is Brexit.

[Mellsblue]

I'd take either at th moment, and both are worse than being in the EU, but give enough sovereignty back that some of those who voted leave would be satisfied that something had changed. The only way to control immigration is hard brexit. Some clowns want that, but I think enough people are worried by that to make it worth avoiding.

I think will end up with something very similar to the Swiss. Which is pretty much a series of bilateral agreements......or cherry picking, as the go to phrase has become.

That's a least two red lines to cross as regards freedom of movement and having the EU courts dictate to us. Swiss migration levels are way above ours, though there is their per capita EU contributions are something like 1/6th of ours. The thing about the bilateral agreements is the Swiss have fairly limited access to the EU and even then over 100 bilateral agreements, we'd have or want a lot more agreements, and anytime we failed to update changes the EU might want we'd unwind a lot of agreements which is stupidly complex.

There's also the Swiss tend to take the piss a bit when it comes to respecting a lot of EU rulings, to a degree they get away with it ''cause it's just not that important only being the Swiss, the UK isn't going to fly under the radar in the same way

I believe the Swiss have a system in which any job must first be offered to the domestic market before being offered pan-EU of it cannot be filled. This seems a sensible compromise and one which satisfies a Swiss public who voted for an end to freedom of movement and the EU.
As for EU courts, from what I've read both sides seem to be moving towards that which presides over ESTA. Hopefully, another sensible compromise.

[Sandydragon]

The sovereignty issue is important to many Brexiteers. But under EFTA, the court rules on issues relating to trade only , not wider EU social affairs. We would also side step many of the other initiatives such as EU defence force and do on. Sold the right way, I think that would be enough to convince a fair few that U.K. Parliament was sovereign again. Enough to get support for the measure , Farage will never be happy with the outcome and he will always stir up trouble.

[kk67]

We aren't the Swiss. We aren't even the UK.
At a time of an entirely self-inflicted, global, refugee crisis we have behaved abysmally. There are a lot of very hacked off and important bureaucrats in Europe. Davis and his cheery smile and meedja friendly presence is worthless. They will attempt to feck us at every opportunity and it's fair enough.

[Digby]

At a time of an entirely self-inflicted, global, refugee crisis we have behaved abysmally.

Certainly we're complicit in allowing far too many into Europe.

[kk67]

At a time of an entirely self-inflicted, global, refugee crisis we have behaved abysmally.

Certainly we're complicit in allowing far too many into Europe.

We are killing thousands of humans for mineral and monetary gain. Western societies deliberately ruin other societies to make it happen.

[canta_brian]

Davis is no longer even trying to negotiate a brexit deal. It looks to me as if all he is doing now is trying to build a narrative that the Europeans are unreasonable so that they can be blamed when we hard brexit with no deal. This will play well with the little Englanders (and Welsh) who voted for leave. Although lots of them were old and will be dead by 2019 anyway. Nice legacy, thanks.

[Sandydragon]

Th chances of a negotiation by 2019 are slim, very slim. The current grandstanding is painful and frankly both sides need to realise that some compromise is needed. The uk government has at last published some papers on how brexit will look, at least the EU can provide a considered response rather than just rubbishing them. Meanwhile the demands for money seem to be determined to wind up elements of British politics, rather than be a constructive means to manage a divorce.

Both sides will be weakened by this split, but it's still possible for both sides to emerge with a reasonable deal if key negotiators grow up.

[Digby]

Th chances of a negotiation by 2019 are slim, very slim. The current grandstanding is painful and frankly both sides need to realise that some compromise is needed. The uk government has at last published some papers on how brexit will look, at least the EU can provide a considered response rather than just rubbishing them. Meanwhile the demands for money seem to be determined to wind up elements of British politics, rather than be a constructive means to manage a divorce.

Both sides will be weakened by this split, but it's still possible for both sides to emerge with a reasonable deal if key negotiators grow up.

I don't see the EU needs to change that much, unless they actually decide they do want to reverse much of their EU project. That said if Britain does put £50bn on the table, then even if that's not what they're after and allowing or offsets to that figure it's a hard sum to say no to.

And really if the £50bn does prove as popular as cholera then the Tories can simply choose that moment to put May out of her misery.

[Digby]

Over to Parliament now to see how we can conduct the next part of this in orderly fashion ourselves, away that is from the supposed evils of the EU. Will Labour be constructive or simply seek political point scoring? Will the government have any interest in being scrutinised or simply seek to crack the whip over their own ranks? Will anyone listen to the Lib Dems (even as a Lib Dem voter I only found out recently and by accident Cable was the new party leader)? Will the Brexiters realise they only had a narrow result in the referendum and walk back from their view that any view but their view is heresy before they take on the moniker of the British Taliban?

[Sandydragon]

At some point, maybe, just maybe, the Brexiteers will realise that their win wasn't an overwhelming one and that a large number of British people are concerned at some of the current antics.

[Digby]

At some point, maybe, just maybe, the Brexiteers will realise that their win wasn't an overwhelming one and that a large number of British people are concerned at some of the current antics.

Maybe, though there does seem a connect between flat earthists, anti-vaccers, Trump supporters and Brexit voters, there's an ideological zeal that eschews compromise and frankly even facts

[Tre]

I can't believe this tedious shit is dragging on still.

[Mellsblue]

It'll drag on until the UK is either the largest economy in the world or is receiving foreign aid. Anything in between and the rabid-Brexiteers and the rabid-Europhiles will claim we are/would be worse/better off were we still in the EU.

[Digby]

It'll drag on until the UK is either the largest economy in the world or is receiving foreign aid. Anything in between and the rabid-Brexiteers and the rabid-Europhiles will claim we are/would be worse/better off were we still in the EU.

I don't think it's up for debate we'll be economically worse off, maybe in the dim and distant future it'll prove the right decision even on an economic basis, but I suspect that judgement will come after I'm dead so I'm sticking with worse off on that basis. I know we hear we'll be able to fashion these wonderful new deals, but tbh you need only look what Germany have done in building exports to China to realise our problem isn't the EU, it's us.

Whether it's right simply of itself to bring back sovereignty to the UK, well that's a separate thing, and I can understand (if not on balance accept) those who want powers returned even at some expense. I am though mightily annoyed that on the back of the returning powers the executive will this week seek to extend their powers in order we can still skip parliament in the name our parliamentary democracy.

Then there's the standards we have post Brexit across employment, the environment, matching EU investment, well again we'll have to wait and see. My assumption in advance is the Tories will seek to drop standards, and Labour are such a lunatic rabble they'll scream on some isolated issues but have no overall coherent plan. And it's more than a little annoying we'll be spending billions on the actual process and tying up the government from looking at so much elsewhere

There might be some silver linings as things stand, that RyanAir may leave us, and that with much reduced travel and grounded planes we no longer need the 3rd runway at Heathrow (not that I'd let them build it whatever)

[Mellsblue]

I rest my case

[Digby]

I rest my case

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

[Mellsblue]

I rest my case

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I rest my case

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

A shit load. Cheap labour and a british public who can afford to go there and european public able to go without pointless admin that they'd rather not bother with.

[Digby]

I rest my case

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

I'd suggest yes you should care how your fellows are doing, if for no other reason than the society you live in and its ability to deliver services will impact you and your family. Ideally one would care by dint of being a reasonable person too, but even just self interest would suffice supposing people are able to think that far ahead.

[Mellsblue]

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

I'd suggest yes you should care how your fellows are doing, if for no other reason than the society you live in and its ability to deliver services will impact you and your family. Ideally one would care by dint of being a reasonable person too, but even just self interest would suffice supposing people are able to think that far ahead.

I suggest you listen to your own advice then. All you've done so far on this thread is moan how you've lost contracts, that we'll all be worse of - without stopping to think that might not be the case for 'all' - and that anyone who voted for leave is a retard. Doesn't sound like the acts of a reasonable person to me.

[Mellsblue]

There is rather the Government are declining to release their Brexit impact analysis. And that the only serious piece of work I've seen predicting we'll do well on the back of Brexit belongs to Minford, and Minford made some very odd choices in how he assembled data and drew conclusions - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit06.pdf (should anyone really want to read a little around how Minford put his figures together)

If Minford isn't a familiar name then he gave rise to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

It's a democracy, people are free to vote as they wish, and I accept we're leaving and the Lib Dems policy of holding another referendum seems daft to me (as daft as UKIP's pledge to keep holding referendum until they got the vote they wanted, and when you're on a par with Farage it should indicate you've made a bad decision). But there just isn't any serious piece of work performed in competent fashion I've seen which doesn't concur with basic common sense that it's going to cost us money, though perhaps the price will be lower overall growth than an actual scaling back.

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

A shit load. Cheap labour and a british public who can afford to go there and european public able to go without pointless admin that they'd rather not bother with.

So, the middle classes then, not really us but rather people like you and me. How very egalitarian. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap cleaner and cheap European holidays but I suspect those who can't afford either are not that worried these might now cost me more if their lot gets a little better.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

At the risk of going over it all over again......who is this 'us' and should people who might do well personally out of Brexit care if the country as a whole isn't as well off.
Looking at my holidays so far this year, New York and France cost me a hell of a lot more than they would have done prior to the referendum but, on the other side of the coin, the hotel, restaurant and shop owners I spoke to whilst on the longstanding family tradition of a Scarborough august bank holiday break haven't had it so good in years. I'm not sure many in Scarborough would have much time for my complaints that my two other holidays had cost me a small fortune when their local economy has been on its arse for decades.
Now, the economy may go to sh** over the next ten years - not sure anybody is predicting that anymore - and as a nation won't even be able to afford to go to the likes of Scarborough for our summer hols but when places like that were already on their arse what did they have to lose.

A shit load. Cheap labour and a british public who can afford to go there and european public able to go without pointless admin that they'd rather not bother with.

So, the middle classes then, not really us but rather people like you and me. How very egalitarian. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap cleaner and cheap European holidays but I suspect those who can't afford either are not that worried these might now cost me more if their lot gets a little better.

What on earth are you on about? You were talking about the people of Scarborough who say that things have improved for them so I pointed out what they have to lose. If you are now actually talking about different people then I'm happy to talk about what they have to lose if you want to. If you are talking about the lowest paid and unemployed, they lose the opportunities to work for the hoteliers and restaurants who thrived on the tourist trade as people take fewer holidays and people from abroad come less. they lose regional aid, which is extremely unlikely o be replaced by a UK government. A shitty economy is shitty for pretty much everyone. actually it's least shitty for the middle class because they are likely to have relatively stable jobs and fat that can be trimmed from their lifestyle.

[Mellsblue]

A shit load. Cheap labour and a british public who can afford to go there and european public able to go without pointless admin that they'd rather not bother with.

So, the middle classes then, not really us but rather people like you and me. How very egalitarian. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap cleaner and cheap European holidays but I suspect those who can't afford either are not that worried these might now cost me more if their lot gets a little better.

What on earth are you on about? You were talking about the people of Scarborough who say that things have improved for them so I pointed out what they have to lose. If you are now actually talking about different people then I'm happy to talk about what they have to lose if you want to. If you are talking about the lowest paid and unemployed, they lose the opportunities to work for the hoteliers and restaurants who thrived on the tourist trade as people take fewer holidays and people from abroad come less. they lose regional aid, which is extremely unlikely o be replaced by a UK government. A shitty economy is shitty for pretty much everyone. actually it's least shitty for the middle class because they are likely to have relatively stable jobs and fat that can be trimmed from their lifestyle.

My apologies. When you said cheap labour I didn't possibly think you could mean Scarborough. The indigenous labour there is already cheap as there are hardly any jobs. Europeans didn't go to Scarborough looking for jobs as there weren't any.
The tourist trade in the UK is currently booming in relative terms. The weak pound has made it so.
No regional aid without the EU:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/40-m ... -the-coast
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/40-m ... tish-coast

As for the shitty economy, it may end up that way but, as I've already said, the economy in Scarborough was already shitty so what do they have to lose.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

So, the middle classes then, not really us but rather people like you and me. How very egalitarian. Don't get me wrong, I like a cheap cleaner and cheap European holidays but I suspect those who can't afford either are not that worried these might now cost me more if their lot gets a little better.

What on earth are you on about? You were talking about the people of Scarborough who say that things have improved for them so I pointed out what they have to lose. If you are now actually talking about different people then I'm happy to talk about what they have to lose if you want to. If you are talking about the lowest paid and unemployed, they lose the opportunities to work for the hoteliers and restaurants who thrived on the tourist trade as people take fewer holidays and people from abroad come less. they lose regional aid, which is extremely unlikely o be replaced by a UK government. A shitty economy is shitty for pretty much everyone. actually it's least shitty for the middle class because they are likely to have relatively stable jobs and fat that can be trimmed from their lifestyle.

My apologies. When you said cheap labour I didn't possibly think you could mean Scarborough. The indigenous labour there is already cheap as there are hardly any jobs. Europeans didn't go to Scarborough looking for jobs as there weren't any.
The tourist trade in the UK is currently booming in relative terms. The weak pound has made it so.
No regional aid without the EU:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/40-m ... -the-coast
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/40-m ... tish-coast

As for the shitty economy, it may end up that way but, as I've already said, the economy in Scarborough was already shitty so what do they have to lose.

Just because something is shitty, doesn't mean that it can't get shittier.

You'd think that the cheap labour wouldn't be a factor, but despite the levels of unemployment people still seem to have problems filling vacancies, certainly from the local population.