Brexit delayed

[Banquo]

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

[Banquo]

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

[Which Tyler]

as a counter, 82% of vote was for parties with Brexit in manifesto; logistics is the best hope for stopping it, alongside MP's rebelling against the whip, and in some cases facing deselection/loss of seat. You hope that logic will win; that would be a volte face from 2016, and subsequent events. Hope you are right........

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

[Banquo]

I don't think logic will win. I just think no one is actually going to want to be responsible for the horrorshow that will be any "deal" that we get and politics can then take over. Corbyn and all the others in the end will find it politically expedient to vote down any deal which is even vaguely sub-optimal which means any deal whatsoever that takes us out. They can say that they aren't opposing Brexit - just the government's negoiation results. i cannot see any way how this minority government gets a good enough deal to clear the commons. That's not to say that Brexit isn't still the most likely result, but there are plenty of reasons to think it won't happen.

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

[Which Tyler]

2nd referendum becomes viable - leave with nothing, or return to the fold

.....but if no deal, what happens after 2 years?

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

[Banquo]

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

[Which Tyler]

is that so? I genuinely don't know...is that a legal thang? and can you reverse a50?

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

[Banquo]

The impression I get is that nobody knows, but that the likes of Inker, Tusk, Macron and the guy who wrote the requirements for Art 50 all seem to think so. Theresa May disagrees

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

ok. So wishful thinking (fingers crossed you are right, because there is no chance of a deal that would look anything like sensible for us by March 2019)

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

[Banquo]

Certainly a degree of wishful thinking, but I do think it's a viable option if we fail to negotiate anything that passes parliament. Given no agreement, a minority government, the narrowness of the referendum result, and the potential willingness of the EU to abort Brexit; I'd say that the option of a do over becomes a viable option. Not that it will necessarily happen, but I'd place money on it being raised in parliament if we fail to reach an agreement.

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

[Eugene Wrayburn]

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.

[Banquo]

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.

Thats the daft thing, we likely already had the best deal in Europe as it stood, even DC got a teeny bit more. Had he got something better to spin, we wouldn't be here now.

[Sandydragon]

i'm going to call bullshit on this. We'll end up in a rubbish place because we have no hand to play. The fate of our ex pats is politically sensitive but not very important in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand the fate of the EU citizens in the country is massively important to us economically but only politically interesting to the EU. They can use it as a proxy to see just how shite we are at negotiation and the answer is very.

I refuse to accept that this is happening and see no reason why I or anyone else shouldn't throw as many fucking rocks as they can to bring the whole aedifice of Brexit down.

I'm going g to call wakey wakey on this. Unless there is another referendum, it's happening. Dry your eyes and look for the best possible solution.

As a remainder, I'd rather try to work towards as soft an exit as possible rather that chuck my toys out of the prom.

The Conservatives don't have a majority in parliament, and barely a majority amongst MPs for Brexit. No other party has anywhere near a majority in favour of Brexit and most are officially set against every single part of the Brexit that the Conservatives are negotiating for. Further the Brexit vote was won by less and the reality of our weak negotiating position is set to reveal itself. Yet despite all that's happened politically in the past couple of years, you think it's definitely happening? Catch a grip.

So you think that one of our current political leadership has the balls to tell the country that it's all too difficult? What would be the result if, after securing a genuine democratic mandate, Brexit in some format didn't happen?

I predict confusion and difficulty ahead, I also think that most MPs will respect the referendum result. I'd remind you that the money party to put remaining in the eu front and centre was the lib dems, who came now where (yes the SNP as well but different circumstances in Scotland anyway). Neither can influence the direction of the two main parties unless both fragment.

Corbyn wants to leave the EU. Will all of his MPs back him? I think most will. He now has a huge mandate in the party and none of the oderate labour MPs seem to be that brave at the moment.

I think you are deploying wishful thinking.

[Sandydragon]

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.

Doesn't being humiliated by Europe strengthen or weaken the leave campaigns hand? Your focusing on whether European leaders would be prepared to keep us in the club, but not on whether the uk population would accept that or whether MPs would vote to accept that. How many MPs of any colour would vote to abandon the referendum result if their constituency had voted to leave?

[Mellsblue]

yep lots of mileage, I was just establishing what the article 50 options were, and its not black and white from what I've heard so far.

No not just wishful thinking. Everyone who matters including Macron has said that we can abandon brexit. We'll be in a weaker position in the EU but at least we'd still be in the game.

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

If there is one thing you can trust them on its to not respect the result of a referendum

[Which Tyler]

have Juncker and Trusk? But ok. There is a difference between saying/implying and happening too; I don't trust those fckrs

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.

Doesn't being humiliated by Europe strengthen or weaken the leave campaigns hand? Your focusing on whether European leaders would be prepared to keep us in the club, but not on whether the uk population would accept that or whether MPs would vote to accept that. How many MPs of any colour would vote to abandon the referendum result if their constituency had voted to leave?

That's not really what's beig proposed though.
The oproposal is that IF after 2 (most likely 3) years of negotiating, there is no deal on the table, so we're due to leave the EU on WTO terms with no treaties at all. All with a minority government remember.

The proposal would then be that a second referrendum takes place - Leave with no deal, or Stay on previous deal (if this were to happen I'd expect the EU to offer us to stay as we had been, they wouldn't want want to give the leave campaign any more ammunition than they had to).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that parliament simply decides that we're not leaving after all; regardless of the results of negotiation.

[canta_brian]

I'm pretty sure both have. And no I don't trust thm but forcing us into a humiliating climb down whilst keeping us in the fold is the best for all concerned. They'll probably try to strip away at least of our opt outs as well.

Doesn't being humiliated by Europe strengthen or weaken the leave campaigns hand? Your focusing on whether European leaders would be prepared to keep us in the club, but not on whether the uk population would accept that or whether MPs would vote to accept that. How many MPs of any colour would vote to abandon the referendum result if their constituency had voted to leave?

That's not really what's beig proposed though.
The oproposal is that IF after 2 (most likely 3) years of negotiating, there is no deal on the table, so we're due to leave the EU on WTO terms with no treaties at all. All with a minority government remember.

The proposal would then be that a second referrendum takes place - Leave with no deal, or Stay on previous deal (if this were to happen I'd expect the EU to offer us to stay as we had been, they wouldn't want want to give the leave campaign any more ammunition than they had to).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that parliament simply decides that we're not leaving after all; regardless of the results of negotiation.

How do people think having a 2nd referendum on the table would effect the negotiations? I think it might encourage the Europeans to be tougher, but we could offset that by stating any 2nd referendum required a 2/3rds majority to overturn leave.

[Sandydragon]

Doesn't being humiliated by Europe strengthen or weaken the leave campaigns hand? Your focusing on whether European leaders would be prepared to keep us in the club, but not on whether the uk population would accept that or whether MPs would vote to accept that. How many MPs of any colour would vote to abandon the referendum result if their constituency had voted to leave?

That's not really what's beig proposed though.
The oproposal is that IF after 2 (most likely 3) years of negotiating, there is no deal on the table, so we're due to leave the EU on WTO terms with no treaties at all. All with a minority government remember.

The proposal would then be that a second referrendum takes place - Leave with no deal, or Stay on previous deal (if this were to happen I'd expect the EU to offer us to stay as we had been, they wouldn't want want to give the leave campaign any more ammunition than they had to).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that parliament simply decides that we're not leaving after all; regardless of the results of negotiation.

How do people think having a 2nd referendum on the table would effect the negotiations? I think it might encourage the Europeans to be tougher, but we could offset that by stating any 2nd referendum required a 2/3rds majority to overturn leave.

If we had employed that requirement in the first place, we would be in this mess. We would also be better off if the leave campaign were made to spell out exactly what they meant by leave.

If we assume that there is no deal on the table then basically it's a refere enum between withdrawing article 50 or hard Brexit. If there is a deal, then could it be a three way vote (which seems messy) with the deal, or hard Brexit or remain in? On reflection that doesn't work too well, so arguably the referendum is take the deal or walk away.

I'm not sure that havin such a referendum would affect the negotiations, other than further reduce the time available. On the one hand, if the eu plays hardball that could encourage mor people the vote out. On the other hand, there is a hope I suspect that people sober up and think that hard Brexit is too difficult and dangerous. The uk parliament is more eu friendly than the uk population so he eu might be concerned at such a referendum, but there are lots of moving parts so quite difficult to call.

It's easy to suggest that a referendum in a few years would result in a stay victory, with older voter passing away and the youth vote now active. But I'd be a bit wary of that. Just how fickle is the youth vote? Further more, how many remainers voted that way because they didn't want the upset but aren't that fond eu? A two year diplomatic dickdance and perceived eu bullying might tip,a few of those over to the other side. Not a foregone conclusion.

The danger is that our negotiators could end up with something half decent which is then lost in the noise of the referendum and we end up in a worse place. Our hand is now weaker, but equally, us tanking economically doesn't help the eu either. We won't have what we have now, but we may still get so,etching better that WTO terms, but if a risk to put a compromise deal in the table which can be slaughtered by Farage et al and screw us all over.

[Which Tyler]

How do people think having a 2nd referendum on the table would effect the negotiations? I think it might encourage the Europeans to be tougher, but we could offset that by stating any 2nd referendum required a 2/3rds majority to overturn leave.

a potential second referendum wouldn't be on the table until negotiations have already broken down.

Sandy; the potential referendum only comes into play if there is no deal on the table, so no option of a 3-way question. It would be out with nothing, or in with everything.

[Sandydragon]

Aye. I was thinking through the implications of an offer that seemed to fall short of what the public were perceived to want. However a three way referendum would be a nightmare situation.

Playing devils advocate, it could be argued that fen if negotiations do breakdown, there is no requirement to have another referendum given that the leave vote wasn't cast against a specific type of Brexit, just for Brexit in general. Do I see legal challenges ahead under the premise that such a second referendum was only trying to undermine the result of the first?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Aye. I was thinking through the implications of an offer that seemed to fall short of what the public were perceived to want. However a three way referendum would be a nightmare situation.

Playing devils advocate, it could be argued that fen if negotiations do breakdown, there is no requirement to have another referendum given that the leave vote wasn't cast against a specific type of Brexit, just for Brexit in general. Do I see legal challenges ahead under the premise that such a second referendum was only trying to undermine the result of the first?

No.

[Stones of granite]

How many tonnes of wood chips do you get for a £billion?

[canta_brian]

How many tonnes of wood chips do you get for a £billion?

On the DUP scheme I think it was 2

[Digby]

Liam Fox in the USA laying the groundwork for lower standards/consumer rights post Brexit. And it might be one thing to bend over for the land of the obese and the chance to import the food that keeps them all so healthy, but god knows what China and India will ask for.