America

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Thank god for that Taylor Swift endorsement. Way to read the room.

I really don't understand your hangup about her.

Celebrity endorsement over policy dialogue. I have no beef with the Swiftess. People here, in the USandA, were very tired of celebrity endorsement at an early point in the campaign. My hangup is the lack of policy dialogue at the considerable expense of presenting celebrities. George Clooney given space in the New York Times can funck off also. How about spending that money on hammering the fact that wages have kept up with inflation and federal support for small business grants for US companies have been fought for over the last four years? The "rally" is sacrosanct, apparently.

The problem is that you are in no way the median American court and the median American voter has little to no interest in policy dialogue. It's pretty much just vibes all the way down now. Which is also the answer to Puja's assertion that most of the Boden policies didn't help vast swathes of people. I'd say that's so disputable as to be plain wrong. It's just that it's complex. In 2 years Hidden got a lot done. He stabilised the economy and avoided the recession that pretty much every economists said was on its way. I get that avoiding disaster didn't exactly play, but it should. That's on top of the policies I set out earlier. Could they have done more? The truthful answer is no. Biden passed the most progressive agenda that it was possible to get through a narrow Congress majority before the midterms and nothing useful was getting passed after that. Most of which ignores that Harris's programme added to this and they trump offered nothing beyond grievance.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Gaza was a factor. Not for the average voter, probably not enough to swing the popular vote, but enough to make the difference in Michigan and Wisconsin. Look at the margin of Trump's victory versus the Muslim population (also Jewish population):

Michigan, margin: 81k, Muslim pop: 242k, Jewish pop: 88k
Wisconsin, margin: 29k, Muslim pop: 69k, Jewish pop: 33k

In the rest, it probably wouldn't have make the difference, or not helped at all. A detailed poll of voters' reasons would of course be better than my speculation!).
Georgia, margin: 117k, Muslim pop: 124k, Jewish pop: 141k
Pennsylvania, margin: 140k, Muslim pop: 150k, Jewish pop: 494k
North Carolina, margin: 189k, Muslim pop: 131k, Jewish pop: 49k
Arizona, margin: 182k, Muslim pop: 110k, Jewish pop: 124k

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... -president

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Gaza was a factor. Not for the average voter, probably not enough to swing the popular vote, but enough to make the difference in Michigan and Wisconsin. Look at the margin of Trump's victory versus the Muslim population (also Jewish population):

Michigan, margin: 81k, Muslim pop: 242k, Jewish pop: 88k
Wisconsin, margin: 29k, Muslim pop: 69k, Jewish pop: 33k

In the rest, it probably wouldn't have make the difference, or not helped at all. A detailed poll of voters' reasons would of course be better than my speculation!).
Georgia, margin: 117k, Muslim pop: 124k, Jewish pop: 141k
Pennsylvania, margin: 140k, Muslim pop: 150k, Jewish pop: 494k
North Carolina, margin: 189k, Muslim pop: 131k, Jewish pop: 49k
Arizona, margin: 182k, Muslim pop: 110k, Jewish pop: 124k

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... -president

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

Is that Muslim population or registered Muslim voters?

And of course Gaza was a factor. Everything was a factor. The weight of Gaza? Who knows, though it doesn't seem to have changed the result of the election. What Muslims voting for Trump/Stein have guaranteed is that no one will pay any attention to what they want. The lesson for the Dems is that they're an unreliable constituency that is not worth chasing if Dems will lose more median voters.

[paddy no 11]

Gaza was a factor. Not for the average voter, probably not enough to swing the popular vote, but enough to make the difference in Michigan and Wisconsin. Look at the margin of Trump's victory versus the Muslim population (also Jewish population):

Michigan, margin: 81k, Muslim pop: 242k, Jewish pop: 88k
Wisconsin, margin: 29k, Muslim pop: 69k, Jewish pop: 33k

In the rest, it probably wouldn't have make the difference, or not helped at all. A detailed poll of voters' reasons would of course be better than my speculation!).
Georgia, margin: 117k, Muslim pop: 124k, Jewish pop: 141k
Pennsylvania, margin: 140k, Muslim pop: 150k, Jewish pop: 494k
North Carolina, margin: 189k, Muslim pop: 131k, Jewish pop: 49k
Arizona, margin: 182k, Muslim pop: 110k, Jewish pop: 124k

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... -president

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

Is that Muslim population or registered Muslim voters?

And of course Gaza was a factor. Everything was a factor. The weight of Gaza? Who knows, though it doesn't seem to have changed the result of the election. What Muslims voting for Trump/Stein have guaranteed is that no one will pay any attention to what they want. The lesson for the Dems is that they're an unreliable constituency that is not worth chasing if Dems will lose more median voters.

The lesson for the dems is if you don't give people a reason to vote for you they won't

(Trump may be waaaaay worse than biden for palestine but sleepy Joe has been abysmal on this, and Harris signalled no change)

[Mellsblue]

This podcast covers the major points from the last couple of days on this thread. It was a good listen:

[Son of Mathonwy]

Gaza was a factor. Not for the average voter, probably not enough to swing the popular vote, but enough to make the difference in Michigan and Wisconsin. Look at the margin of Trump's victory versus the Muslim population (also Jewish population):

Michigan, margin: 81k, Muslim pop: 242k, Jewish pop: 88k
Wisconsin, margin: 29k, Muslim pop: 69k, Jewish pop: 33k

In the rest, it probably wouldn't have make the difference, or not helped at all. A detailed poll of voters' reasons would of course be better than my speculation!).
Georgia, margin: 117k, Muslim pop: 124k, Jewish pop: 141k
Pennsylvania, margin: 140k, Muslim pop: 150k, Jewish pop: 494k
North Carolina, margin: 189k, Muslim pop: 131k, Jewish pop: 49k
Arizona, margin: 182k, Muslim pop: 110k, Jewish pop: 124k

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... -president

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state ... n-by-state

Is that Muslim population or registered Muslim voters?

And of course Gaza was a factor. Everything was a factor. The weight of Gaza? Who knows, though it doesn't seem to have changed the result of the election. What Muslims voting for Trump/Stein have guaranteed is that no one will pay any attention to what they want. The lesson for the Dems is that they're an unreliable constituency that is not worth chasing if Dems will lose more median voters.

Good question - I think it's Muslim 'adherents', so is probably an overestimate in relation to voters. On the other hand, it's from a 2020 survey, so the figures are likely to be higher now.

Obviously 'everything is a factor' if it could have influenced a single vote. My argument is that given the margins in Wisconsin and Michigan and the Muslim populations there, a depressed Muslim vote, or worse, a switch to Trump, could plausibly have lost those states for Harris.

Your last point that Muslim voters have guaranteed that 'no one will pay any attention to what they want' is a very strange one. The opposite is true. The best way to be ignored is to always vote the same way no matter what politicians say. In fact, they've made it more likely that Muslim wishes will be taken into account in future.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Fwiw I think a lesson for the Dems should be that there are no voting blocks worth chasing. The appearance of found so turns off too many other voters. That's not too easy they shouldn't address the concerns of those blocks but those concerns tend (in America) to be the same as most others. Black courts in particular seem to be interested only in a fair crack. Latino voters at this point are indistinguishable from "white" voters.

Dealing specifically with my point above, if Dems had shifted towards the Muslim vote then they'd have lost a bunch of other votes. In America your only real option is to vote for whoever you can pressure once they're in office. That's demonstrably not the Muslim ban guy.

[paddy no 11]

Some goat murderer is Secretary of homeland security

Mike hackabee ambassador to Israel, loves settlements does mike

[paddy no 11]

No such thing as an occupation says Mike

[Son of Mathonwy]

Fwiw I think a lesson for the Dems should be that there are no voting blocks worth chasing. The appearance of found so turns off too many other voters. That's not too easy they shouldn't address the concerns of those blocks but those concerns tend (in America) to be the same as most others. Black courts in particular seem to be interested only in a fair crack. Latino voters at this point are indistinguishable from "white" voters.

Dealing specifically with my point above, if Dems had shifted towards the Muslim vote then they'd have lost a bunch of other votes. In America your only real option is to vote for whoever you can pressure once they're in office. That's demonstrably not the Muslim ban guy.

I don't think I follow your first paragraph. The Dems didn't chase a voter block that could have plausibly won them two of the swing states, so the lesson is not to chase voter blocks?

Any sensible party needs to be aware of what the voters want and (unless they have a magical policy which all voters want) have to in some way split them into blocks which broadly share the same interests. And then try to find some compromise between what the party wants to achieve and what enough of the people can be convinced to vote for.

You can't just say a shift to the Muslim vote would have lost them a bunch of other votes without making a specific argument (because you could make that point for any policy, like it's a zero-sum game, which it clearly isn't). A shift towards the Muslim vote would have been popular with some non-Muslims (like the young) and unpopular with others. But we know overall, it wasn't an important issue for most people. My point is that in these 2 states its was a vital, vote-affecting issue for significant minorities.

Obviously I'm not saying Harris should have abruptly moved to the kind of position I would like the US to hold*, but she should have given the Muslims something, some reason to believe she was going to stop the killing in Gaza, like saying it's gone too far, killing 43k is not a proportionate response to the killing of 1.2k, American bombs should not be used to blow up babies, we wouldn't expect our police to kill 20 innocent people trying to catch 1 murderer, starving women and children is not acceptable etc. Instead she said she agreed with everything that Biden had done, and offered no hope for a change in policy.


*eg pressure Israel to obey international law, leave the occupied territories and make reparations, suspend all support for Israel and bring sanctions against it until it complies.

[Puja]

US Politics since 2016 has been dominated by rich billionaires gaining power out of petty spite because someone laughed at them. Trump has been on the record saying that a major factor in him deciding to get into politics was Obama roasting him for his birtherism during the White House Correspondents comedy dinner. And now we have Elon Musk, who took over Twitter because he didn't like people saying mean stuff about him, then endured several months of cock-ups, poor decisions, and getting roasted by most of the planet, and responded by diving into the arms of the right wing who didn't laugh at him, and seeking power apparently to demonstrate how absolutely smart he actually is and how he was right all along about everything.

Oh, and he thinks he's funny. "Department of Governmental Efficiency " (DoGE). How witty, the name you've given to letting an imbecile flail around and dismantle the bits of the government and civil service that he doesn't understand! It's a funny meme! I think I'd prefer the Shiba Inu to be in charge! I suspect it would do less damage!

I just thank the gods below and everburning that he's not a natural US citizen and can't aim for President himself. Although if he ingratiates himself to Trump enough, maybe there'll be a constitutional amendment and we still can face the prospect of Musk 2028.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

US Politics since 2016 has been dominated by rich billionaires gaining power out of petty spite because someone laughed at them. Trump has been on the record saying that a major factor in him deciding to get into politics was Obama roasting him for his birtherism during the White House Correspondents comedy dinner. And now we have Elon Musk, who took over Twitter because he didn't like people saying mean stuff about him, then endured several months of cock-ups, poor decisions, and getting roasted by most of the planet, and responded by diving into the arms of the right wing who didn't laugh at him, and seeking power apparently to demonstrate how absolutely smart he actually is and how he was right all along about everything.

Oh, and he thinks he's funny. "Department of Governmental Efficiency " (DoGE). How witty, the name you've given to letting an imbecile flail around and dismantle the bits of the government and civil service that he doesn't understand! It's a funny meme! I think I'd prefer the Shiba Inu to be in charge! I suspect it would do less damage!

I just thank the gods below and everburning that he's not a natural US citizen and can't aim for President himself. Although if he ingratiates himself to Trump enough, maybe there'll be a constitutional amendment and we still can face the prospect of Musk 2028.

Puja

Yes, I had the same thank god moment when that crossed my mind a few days ago.

It'll be amazing if the US has a functioning state in 4 years time. No matter, Trump and Musk will be a lot richer.

[paddy no 11]

This going to be some swindle similar to Russia in the 1990's

[Son of Mathonwy]

This going to be some swindle similar to Russia in the 1990's

Yeah, I am wondering how far they're going to take it. Will they try to steal the businesses of the other tech oligarchs? Or just push government business their way? Will Trump go for bribes or actual expropriation or merely set the system to be even more billionaire-friendly? If Trump gets gets justice in his pocket, Putin-style, anything is possible.

[paddy no 11]

The big conspiracy on the left is that musk will replace the dollar with crypto as the American currency

Looks less and less like a conspiracy everyday, he has already tweeted support for dissolving the fed and transferring to the potus

[Son of Mathonwy]

The big conspiracy on the left is that musk will replace the dollar with crypto as the American currency

Looks less and less like a conspiracy everyday, he has already tweeted support for dissolving the fed and transferring to the potus

They won't replace the dollar but they might do the rest. I suppose introducing a crypto-dollar is not impossible

On the positive side, Musk isn't involved on the finance side of government. They're not that mental, yet.

[morepork]

Fox News anchor made secretary of defense.

[paddy no 11]

Possible rapist attorney General

[Son of Mathonwy]

Fox News anchor made secretary of defense.

Is the world still going to be here in 4 years?

[morepork]

Possible rapist attorney General

A catalogue of, Just Fuck.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Given how awful Harris is on Gaza I can totally understand how Americans, especially Muslims, could choose to abstain*. But abstaining would be a mistake, no matter how gutting it would be to give genocide supporter Harris some kind of approval.

The argument I'd make is that abstaining is like giving both Harris and Trump a vote (the effect is the same). And what kind of a fool would give Trump a vote? So a vote for Harris is the least bad option. Just hold your nose.

* but not vote for Trump, that's insane, he'd be at least as bad on Gaza and worse on everything else.

I absolutely understand not wanting to reward Harris for her continual outreach to Republicans and abandonment of her base (on the basis that, "You have to vote for me or he wins!") - it's the same complaint I had about Starmer in our election. However, the difference is that Starmer was guaranteed a win and so it was safe to protest vote Green - allow Trump in and you're going from Harris's "We might occasionally look sternly at Israel and it is theoretically possible that there might be a line that we draw, somewhere" level of genocide approval to Trump's "Bibi is my mate and can do no wrong, plus I reckon there's money to be made in beachfront property in Gaza if we can make the people who own it disappear" level of genocide approval.

Surely that's worse?

Puja

Agreed. It is literally the lesser of two evils.

I wonder how Muslims who didn't vote, or voted for Trump are feeling now, with Mike "no such thing as a Palestinian" Huckabee's nomination for ambassador to Israel?

The crazy thing is I can still, emotionally, get what they did if they abstained, or voted Green. They fucked up, but I still sort of get it (if I don't use my brain). If they voted for Trump though . . .

[Stom]

You see, I totally get it. I don't agree with it, but I get it completely.

People have been screwed over. Their lives are worse than they were 10 years ago, and it's really hard for them to vote for what is, essentially, more of the same.

That "same" has led them to a place they don't want to be.

So, you have a choice: more of the same from people who have shown you that your interests do not come first.

Or someone from outside the system who tells you that he's going to put you first...

And it's not an easy fix in Murica. The economic and political system does not lend itself to anything but extreme right monetary systems.

[Mikey Brown]

How seriously does/should anyone take all this talk of Russian assets/meddling/misinformation? Trump, Gabbard, Musk etc. all have some pretty dodgy links, there's been a recent uncovering of Russian funding behind many divisive right-wing pundits and influencers, but I find it hard to weed through the hysteria and understand which threats are really concerning.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It is looking more like Trump is going to Truss-up things - appointing idiots and zealots, no grown-ups to tell him he's going to break things. Like Truss and Kwarteng on acid, speed and steroids, with rocket boosters, riding an atom bomb into the heart of a star about to go supernova.

[morepork]

Brilliant

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... the-onion/

Jones was a fringe figure broadcasting in Austin, Texas in the 1990s and later built an audience of millions with a mix of opinion, speculation and outright fabrication. The company makes most of its money through an online shop selling vitamins and other products.