aye. Suspect quiet Trump voter effect or summat like that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:15 amMost of the pollsters were systematically wrong, ie they consistently showed a lead for Harris that wasn't actually there, presumably by over or underestimating the vote from certain demographics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwid ... l_election
Atlasintel seemed to be more accurate whereas most pollsters consistently gave Harris a slight lead.
America
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Re: America
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
...and it would crash the economy.paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:38 amI think it's endearingly naive that you think one of the big 3 couldn't become an authoritarian state....leave this off pleaseEugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:17 amI think this is endearingly naive. Firstly, actually deporting them isn't the point. The point is giving authority for police or ICE to pick up and detain any brown person. Secondly you're assuming a level of decency in there execution that just won't exist. You're assuming they won't just pick people up and drive them across the border.paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:46 pm Zero % chance of deporting 11M immigrants, might get to 2% of that number
Trump didn't even build the wall he promised 1st time around, not everything he says is followed through on, this is one reason why it won't happen, logistics being no 2.
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
There was a pollster on C4, JL Partners I think, who were also more accurate - they claimed this was because they used a wider range of methods for reaching people eg having pop-up polls in computer games (which seems like a criminal act IMO) . . . and actually getting out and talking to people. Of course, maybe they were just pro-Trump and skewed their results that way, accidentally making them more accurateBanquo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:16 amaye. Suspect quiet Trump voter effect or summat like that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:15 amMost of the pollsters were systematically wrong, ie they consistently showed a lead for Harris that wasn't actually there, presumably by over or underestimating the vote from certain demographics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwid ... l_election
Atlasintel seemed to be more accurate whereas most pollsters consistently gave Harris a slight lead.

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Re: America
aye, that was where I was headed; there's also the supposition that polls themselves will impact pollsSon of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:38 amThere was a pollster on C4, JL Partners I think, who were also more accurate - they claimed this was because they used a wider range of methods for reaching people eg having pop-up polls in computer games (which seems like a criminal act IMO) . . . and actually getting out and talking to people. Of course, maybe they were just pro-Trump and skewed their results that way, accidentally making them more accurateBanquo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:16 amaye. Suspect quiet Trump voter effect or summat like that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:15 am
Most of the pollsters were systematically wrong, ie they consistently showed a lead for Harris that wasn't actually there, presumably by over or underestimating the vote from certain demographics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwid ... l_election
Atlasintel seemed to be more accurate whereas most pollsters consistently gave Harris a slight lead.. Anyway, the pollsters in general got it wrong and need to review their methods.

Last edited by Banquo on Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
No, they were offered more of what they were already getting from Biden/Harris.Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:15 amThey were literally just offered that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:09 pmDiscussing the pros and cons of the Dems going left is obviously totally moot - it isn't going to happen.Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 4:27 pm
Is it really that simple? There's still a ton of people that simply didn't vote this time, and it seems like many who will simply vote for whoever promises the lowest cost of gas, groceries, healthcare etc. Harris didn't really seem to address the economy, not in a way that reached most people anyway.
But that doesn't mean it's necessarily stupid. Trump speaks to a lot of the working class who feel left out (because they are). He tells them lies because he only means to make life better for the rich but that doesn't mean there aren't votes to be had offering the working class a left wing deal eg better employment rights, better healthcare, pensions, benefits etc.
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
This is funny, ironic, tragic, take your pick:
https://www.politico.eu/article/kamala- ... strategist.
https://www.politico.eu/article/kamala- ... strategist.
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Re: America
Well, the polls on voting intention have been skewing further and further from the reality in recent years, often very much over-egging the non-right wing votes. I guess this is because, for those people who do not go on their understanding of politics, they are fed up with the systems and want to break it. Whoever sells them the devil of the system better, wins.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:38 amThere was a pollster on C4, JL Partners I think, who were also more accurate - they claimed this was because they used a wider range of methods for reaching people eg having pop-up polls in computer games (which seems like a criminal act IMO) . . . and actually getting out and talking to people. Of course, maybe they were just pro-Trump and skewed their results that way, accidentally making them more accurateBanquo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:16 amaye. Suspect quiet Trump voter effect or summat like that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:15 am
Most of the pollsters were systematically wrong, ie they consistently showed a lead for Harris that wasn't actually there, presumably by over or underestimating the vote from certain demographics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwid ... l_election
Atlasintel seemed to be more accurate whereas most pollsters consistently gave Harris a slight lead.. Anyway, the pollsters in general got it wrong and need to review their methods.
Which is how Labour won in the UK, actually...and how the opposition are probably going to win in Hungary. And likely how Erdogan will finally lose in Turkey. But it doesn't help against the Trump, Bibi, Modi, et al...
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Re: America
Really interesting article in the Guardian about how lazy and reductive it is to blame "populism".
Puja
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mp-victorySince we’ll hear a lot, again, about “populism”, let’s remember, again, that 19th-century US populism had a healthy strain of leftwing politics. Defending workers, riling up bankers, decrying the “cross of gold” and economic conservatism: look past his Bible-bashing, and William Jennings Bryan was a precursor to Franklin Roosevelt. Yet for much of this election year, the populists’ modern-day successors in the Democrats have served up an anti-populism: telling voters they were wrong.
...
For reasons I’ll explain in a moment, I’m no fan of explanations that begin and end with the bogeyman of “populism”. They almost always wind up with well-lunched commentators ventriloquising the opinions of people they’ve never talked to and in whose worlds they’ve never set foot. Look at the exit polls and you see a materialist explanation for what’s just happened: two out of three US voters report their economy is bad. And they have an excellent point.
...For the vast majority of US employees – whether middle class or working class, teacher or shop assistant – wages have flatlined. Not for four or even 20 years – but for most of the past half century. Strip out inflation, and average hourly earnings for seven out of 10 employees have barely risen since Richard Nixon was in the White House.
I can’t think of a more flammable political economy than a country with a few very rich people where most workers only get by because of low gas and food prices. Then what happens? A second blow. Covid peters out, the world comes out of lockdown and low-wage America is doused in that most combustible of economic substances: inflation. The entire system goes up – and Donald Trump spots his chance.
Faced with the flames, what would be a left-populist response? It wouldn’t be to resort to pedantry, to correct angry voters by showing them the aggregate figures – but that’s what many Democrat supporters did. Nor would it be to roll back all the benefits extended over the pandemic: the improved child tax credit, Medicaid and unemployment insurance. But that’s what Joe Biden did, even as he shovelled billions into infrastructure. The electoral result was that working- and middle-class voters peeled away from the Democrats. Kamala Harris won the most affluent voters, while Trump took those earning between $50,000 (£39,000) and $100,000 (£77,000). The two tied for those on $50,000 and below. So much for Harris being part of the most pro-worker government since the 1960s.
Just as the electorate professed fury with the entire political and economic system, she and the Democrats made themselves the system’s defenders. They weren’t change but more of the same. They worried about the future of “democracy”; they warned about disrupting free trade. Harris’s slogan of “we’re not going back” said it all: a campaign defined by being anti-Trump rather than for anything. A strategy intended to woo “moderates” left nearly everyone cold.
Puja
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Re: America
As I may have mentioned in another threadPuja wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 2:00 pm Really interesting article in the Guardian about how lazy and reductive it is to blame "populism".
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mp-victorySince we’ll hear a lot, again, about “populism”, let’s remember, again, that 19th-century US populism had a healthy strain of leftwing politics. Defending workers, riling up bankers, decrying the “cross of gold” and economic conservatism: look past his Bible-bashing, and William Jennings Bryan was a precursor to Franklin Roosevelt. Yet for much of this election year, the populists’ modern-day successors in the Democrats have served up an anti-populism: telling voters they were wrong.
...
For reasons I’ll explain in a moment, I’m no fan of explanations that begin and end with the bogeyman of “populism”. They almost always wind up with well-lunched commentators ventriloquising the opinions of people they’ve never talked to and in whose worlds they’ve never set foot. Look at the exit polls and you see a materialist explanation for what’s just happened: two out of three US voters report their economy is bad. And they have an excellent point.
...For the vast majority of US employees – whether middle class or working class, teacher or shop assistant – wages have flatlined. Not for four or even 20 years – but for most of the past half century. Strip out inflation, and average hourly earnings for seven out of 10 employees have barely risen since Richard Nixon was in the White House.
I can’t think of a more flammable political economy than a country with a few very rich people where most workers only get by because of low gas and food prices. Then what happens? A second blow. Covid peters out, the world comes out of lockdown and low-wage America is doused in that most combustible of economic substances: inflation. The entire system goes up – and Donald Trump spots his chance.
Faced with the flames, what would be a left-populist response? It wouldn’t be to resort to pedantry, to correct angry voters by showing them the aggregate figures – but that’s what many Democrat supporters did. Nor would it be to roll back all the benefits extended over the pandemic: the improved child tax credit, Medicaid and unemployment insurance. But that’s what Joe Biden did, even as he shovelled billions into infrastructure. The electoral result was that working- and middle-class voters peeled away from the Democrats. Kamala Harris won the most affluent voters, while Trump took those earning between $50,000 (£39,000) and $100,000 (£77,000). The two tied for those on $50,000 and below. So much for Harris being part of the most pro-worker government since the 1960s.
Just as the electorate professed fury with the entire political and economic system, she and the Democrats made themselves the system’s defenders. They weren’t change but more of the same. They worried about the future of “democracy”; they warned about disrupting free trade. Harris’s slogan of “we’re not going back” said it all: a campaign defined by being anti-Trump rather than for anything. A strategy intended to woo “moderates” left nearly everyone cold.
Puja

- Eugene Wrayburn
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Re: America
Which was better employment rights, better healthcare, but also housingSon of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:39 amNo, they were offered more of what they were already getting from Biden/Harris.Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:15 amThey were literally just offered that.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:09 pm
Discussing the pros and cons of the Dems going left is obviously totally moot - it isn't going to happen.
But that doesn't mean it's necessarily stupid. Trump speaks to a lot of the working class who feel left out (because they are). He tells them lies because he only means to make life better for the rich but that doesn't mean there aren't votes to be had offering the working class a left wing deal eg better employment rights, better healthcare, pensions, benefits etc.
I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person.
NS. Gone but not forgotten.
NS. Gone but not forgotten.
- Donny osmond
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Re: America
I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
Let me clarify. When I say 'better' I don't mean the same as what they're getting. I mean better than what they're getting.Eugene Wrayburn wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:23 amWhich was better employment rights, better healthcare, but also housingSon of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:39 amNo, they were offered more of what they were already getting from Biden/Harris.
- Puja
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Re: America
I always find it amazing that the left is attacked for incivility. Yes, there are absolutely obnoxious people on every fringe who drive people away, but it's not the left who use the epithet of "pedos" to describe marginalised groups and those who advocate for them - that's a mainstream right thing, endorsed and promoted by mainstream right leaders. Nor was it the "left" leader or "left" spokespeople who made constant streams of personal attacks about "DEI hire", "Slept her way to the top", "low IQ", etc.Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:44 am I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
The key bit of that diatribe is "They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children." What decisions do they want to make that they feel the intolerant left would stop them from?
Puja
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Re: America
Yeah, OK, most likely it doesn't hold true across the board. I know most about UK elections, US elections, and Hungarian elections, all of which have had pretty poor polling results in recent times. Also, as Puja said: France. Oh, and the last election in Turkey was meant to be a narrow loss for Erdogan, no?cashead wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 6:08 amThis only seems to be significantly an issue in American elections. Most other elections have more or less gone as expected based on opinion polls - case in point the Japanese general elections late last month, where, if anything, the LDP's popularity - which was hitting historic lows under the previous prime minister Kishida - was overestimated and the government's ruling majority just got wiped out in a 76-seat swing.
Or shit, the UK elections, where the polls predicted a bloodbath for the Tories, and welp. Maybe there was a surprise in Truss losing her safe Tory seat and effectively having her parliamentary career ended, but considering how much of a dedicated failure turtle she is, that couldn't have been that big a surprise.
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Re: America
It's definitely a thing. You don't counter uncivility by being uncivil...you need to hold a mirror up to it, which is why the sudden turn away from that weird line of attack was...weird.Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:44 am I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
But I think this hides a more important point about the election, and about election in general. Which is that there will always be a large minority who votes for the right wing candidate. BUT there will also be another large minority who are absolutely fxxxd off with the state of their country/the world, and cannot trust "establishment" votes to do what is right, because they haven't done so for coming up to 50 years.
- Son of Mathonwy
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Re: America
I disagree. (And I find the language used in that quote unusual for a supposed Democrat. 'pedos' really?)Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:44 am I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
Sure, being preachy isn't good. But then Trump comes across as a swaggering, bullshitting bully. You take the presentation you like, I guess.
The Democrats didn't lose because of the 'intolerance of the tolerant left'. They mostly because (in no particular order):
1) Any government that presided over massive inflation will find reelection difficult.
2) Biden shouldn't have stood again, and should have allowed a new candidate to be selected in the normal way. A cleaner, new candidate would have been better able to offer 'change' from Biden and would have had time to build a profile.
3) The Democrats need to offer something tangible to those who feel left behind and are falling for populist lies.
- Coco
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Re: America
Donny's quoted text is accurate. The majority are fed up.Puja wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:41 amI always find it amazing that the left is attacked for incivility. Yes, there are absolutely obnoxious people on every fringe who drive people away, but it's not the left who use the epithet of "pedos" to describe marginalised groups and those who advocate for them - that's a mainstream right thing, endorsed and promoted by mainstream right leaders. Nor was it the "left" leader or "left" spokespeople who made constant streams of personal attacks about "DEI hire", "Slept her way to the top", "low IQ", etc.Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:44 am I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
Our side lost because of the intolerance of the tolerant left. If you don’t see that, then we will keep losing.
People didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against you.
They voted against your “if you don’t agree with me then you’re my enemy” mentality.
They voted against your need to have an echo chamber or risk being canceled.
They voted against being attacked for a difference in opinion.
They voted against being called pedos, racists, homophobes, Nazis simply for disagreeing with you.
They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children.
They voted against having to walk on eggshells for fear of offending someone.
I don’t care who I piss off by saying this, step out of the tunnel vision and have a civil conversation with folks and take responsibility for your part in pushing people, who are on the fence, to vote against you.
The key bit of that diatribe is "They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children." What decisions do they want to make that they feel the intolerant left would stop them from?
Puja
Frankly, most parents want their children to go to school to learn HOW to think (for themselves), instead of WHAT to think. They want their childten to be able to express their own thoughts and opinions... and to actually be allowed to have those thoughts/opinions/questions without being punished, shunned, or told they are wrong. They would like the opportunity to choose the public school their child goes to, whether it is in their district or not. They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.
Thomas Sowell
Thomas Sowell
- Puja
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Re: America
Practically none of that stuff actually exists though - it's all scare stories. No child has ever been told they need to take an American flag sticker off their backpack because it's triggering. No school is eschewing English or Maths for "pronoun confusion". Yes, teachers may not hide away the fact that they have a husband/wife like they used to have to, but they're not going up to unsuspecting 7 year olds and saying, "I'm gay and you could be too if you work hard in school!" And, in case it's not abundantly obvious, no children are identifying as cats and being allowed to use a litter tray in schools, no matter what rumours Fox repeats.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:34 am They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
They're not "the future that liberals want" - they're just scare stories, repeated and amplified by companies and figures who profit from people being scared.
The only thing in there which might be is "the future that liberals want" is "affirmation of a child's dysphoria without parental notification", but that's mostly because putting in place rules where teachers *have* to inform parents means that sometimes it's forcing the teacher to do something that they know may put the child in physical danger, so I'm leaning towards discretion about child protection over "parents have a right to know" there.
Puja
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- Stom
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Re: America
This is a very important thing to think about.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:34 amDonny's quoted text is accurate. The majority are fed up.Puja wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:41 amI always find it amazing that the left is attacked for incivility. Yes, there are absolutely obnoxious people on every fringe who drive people away, but it's not the left who use the epithet of "pedos" to describe marginalised groups and those who advocate for them - that's a mainstream right thing, endorsed and promoted by mainstream right leaders. Nor was it the "left" leader or "left" spokespeople who made constant streams of personal attacks about "DEI hire", "Slept her way to the top", "low IQ", etc.Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 7:44 am I wouldn't claim to know shit about American society or politics, but I saw this and wondered if it's possibly as accurate as anything else....
The key bit of that diatribe is "They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children." What decisions do they want to make that they feel the intolerant left would stop them from?
Puja
Frankly, most parents want their children to go to school to learn HOW to think (for themselves), instead of WHAT to think. They want their childten to be able to express their own thoughts and opinions... and to actually be allowed to have those thoughts/opinions/questions without being punished, shunned, or told they are wrong. They would like the opportunity to choose the public school their child goes to, whether it is in their district or not. They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
Control over the narrative has been lost. And the response has been to double down (and name call), and that’s not the way to take back control.
Couple with the fact that you (the dems in this case) are seen as the establishment, and the establishment has led to a where we are now…
And there’s no wonder the decision has been made to give power to someone who has consistently claimed he’s anti establishment, even if he’s not.
- Stom
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Re: America
Fidesz were leading by a small amount, not enough for 2/3rds...now the former opposition parties have fallen apart and are polling under 10% combined.cashead wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 6:48 pmI’ll give you Turkey, but going into the 2022 elections in Hungary, Orban’s mob was leading in most polls, and going into the French elections, the National Rally were, by some distance, the highest polling bunch.Stom wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:56 amYeah, OK, most likely it doesn't hold true across the board. I know most about UK elections, US elections, and Hungarian elections, all of which have had pretty poor polling results in recent times. Also, as Puja said: France. Oh, and the last election in Turkey was meant to be a narrow loss for Erdogan, no?cashead wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 6:08 am
This only seems to be significantly an issue in American elections. Most other elections have more or less gone as expected based on opinion polls - case in point the Japanese general elections late last month, where, if anything, the LDP's popularity - which was hitting historic lows under the previous prime minister Kishida - was overestimated and the government's ruling majority just got wiped out in a 76-seat swing.
Or shit, the UK elections, where the polls predicted a bloodbath for the Tories, and welp. Maybe there was a surprise in Truss losing her safe Tory seat and effectively having her parliamentary career ended, but considering how much of a dedicated failure turtle she is, that couldn't have been that big a surprise.
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- Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:21 am
Re: America
It has and does happen...its made news. American flags on things even like trucks in the school parking lot... one child had "Dont tread on me" on his backpack and it caused a stink... I dont think its happened hundreds of times but enough to make news and adds to the feeling that academia/education systems have become agenda driven instead of a safe place for diverse thought and ideas.Puja wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:59 amPractically none of that stuff actually exists though - it's all scare stories. No child has ever been told they need to take an American flag sticker off their backpack because it's triggering. No school is eschewing English or Maths for "pronoun confusion". Yes, teachers may not hide away the fact that they have a husband/wife like they used to have to, but they're not going up to unsuspecting 7 year olds and saying, "I'm gay and you could be too if you work hard in school!" And, in case it's not abundantly obvious, no children are identifying as cats and being allowed to use a litter tray in schools, no matter what rumours Fox repeats.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:34 am They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
They're not "the future that liberals want" - they're just scare stories, repeated and amplified by companies and figures who profit from people being scared.
The only thing in there which might be is "the future that liberals want" is "affirmation of a child's dysphoria without parental notification", but that's mostly because putting in place rules where teachers *have* to inform parents means that sometimes it's forcing the teacher to do something that they know may put the child in physical danger, so I'm leaning towards discretion about child protection over "parents have a right to know" there.
Puja
It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.
Thomas Sowell
Thomas Sowell
- Coco
- Posts: 648
- Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:21 am
Re: America
lol...Awwwe, Bless your heart. If I thought for a moment that you knew what an actual fascist was, your opinion of me might have hurt my wittle feelers. The hypocricy is stunning.cashead wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 6:27 pmRationalise it all you want, you’re a fascist.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:34 amDonny's quoted text is accurate. The majority are fed up.Puja wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:41 am
I always find it amazing that the left is attacked for incivility. Yes, there are absolutely obnoxious people on every fringe who drive people away, but it's not the left who use the epithet of "pedos" to describe marginalised groups and those who advocate for them - that's a mainstream right thing, endorsed and promoted by mainstream right leaders. Nor was it the "left" leader or "left" spokespeople who made constant streams of personal attacks about "DEI hire", "Slept her way to the top", "low IQ", etc.
The key bit of that diatribe is "They voted for the right to keep YOU out of decisions for their children." What decisions do they want to make that they feel the intolerant left would stop them from?
Puja
Frankly, most parents want their children to go to school to learn HOW to think (for themselves), instead of WHAT to think. They want their childten to be able to express their own thoughts and opinions... and to actually be allowed to have those thoughts/opinions/questions without being punished, shunned, or told they are wrong. They would like the opportunity to choose the public school their child goes to, whether it is in their district or not. They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
BTW.. words like nazi, fascist, bigot, and even terf have lost their power and influence.
It is usually futile to try to talk facts and analysis to people who are enjoying a sense of moral superiority in their ignorance.
Thomas Sowell
Thomas Sowell
- Stom
- Posts: 5843
- Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:57 am
Re: America
Which was entirely the narrative.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:42 pmIt has and does happen...its made news. American flags on things even like trucks in the school parking lot... one child had "Dont tread on me" on his backpack and it caused a stink... I dont think its happened hundreds of times but enough to make news and adds to the feeling that academia/education systems have become agenda driven instead of a safe place for diverse thought and ideas.Puja wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:59 amPractically none of that stuff actually exists though - it's all scare stories. No child has ever been told they need to take an American flag sticker off their backpack because it's triggering. No school is eschewing English or Maths for "pronoun confusion". Yes, teachers may not hide away the fact that they have a husband/wife like they used to have to, but they're not going up to unsuspecting 7 year olds and saying, "I'm gay and you could be too if you work hard in school!" And, in case it's not abundantly obvious, no children are identifying as cats and being allowed to use a litter tray in schools, no matter what rumours Fox repeats.Coco wrote: ↑Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:34 am They would like their children to spend their time in school learning English, Math, and the basics rather than have pronoun confusion, affirmation of their childs dysphoria without parental notification or against the parents wishes, or teachers discussing their sexual orientation with 7 year olds. Parents want to have those conversations with their children when THEY see fit to do it, not any sooner, and to be able to deal with certain issues in a way they feel is best for their child. They would like for teachers and administrators to mind their own business when their son has an American flag sticker on his backpack instead of telling him its triggering for some students so he needs to take it off. They are fed up with activist teachers and their agendas.
Thats just some of the info Ive gathered from what Ive read/heard. This is a big reason why homeschooling and charter schools are so popular now.
They're not "the future that liberals want" - they're just scare stories, repeated and amplified by companies and figures who profit from people being scared.
The only thing in there which might be is "the future that liberals want" is "affirmation of a child's dysphoria without parental notification", but that's mostly because putting in place rules where teachers *have* to inform parents means that sometimes it's forcing the teacher to do something that they know may put the child in physical danger, so I'm leaning towards discretion about child protection over "parents have a right to know" there.
Puja
And I get the angst, I do. Things are shit, and government hasn't helped with some pretty insane decisions across the board. But this is just apportioning blame somewhere, creating a strawman that draws attention away from what's been going on.
We've seen it throughout politics in different countries.
And I do understand. Yet I still disagree, because I feel like things that are not very common should not form the basis of an entire strategy. I feel like it would be better to focus on what happens regularly, or more regularly. Because kids can be "assholes" all the time, and just because it happened with a label attached to it doesn't make it any different from the countless trillion other times kids were assholes.
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- Posts: 988
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:54 pm
Re: America
C'mon Coco, are you seriously claiming the republicans are the party of diverse thought and ideas? I don't remember what they used to stand for, but now, it's all about controlling the narrative, the courts and the vote. The dems have lost the plot, clearly, they lost. They have themselves to blame. My take, no one is listening to the people who are suffering, the "working class". Trump is pretending to, but he doesn't care about anyone or anything except himself and he's dumb as a post. It's about to become abundantly clear once he's forced to govern again, which I don't think is something he actually wants, but here we fucking are. 4 more years down the toilet, what a waste. Forget my political leanings, anyone but Trump on either side would have been better for the USA and the world.