America

[Sandydragon]

A test of the sanity of the USA awaits in November. Assuming the Republican party fails that test in July and selects him.

No doubt Trump's base will be even more fired up for Trump the martyr, but they can't vote more. The question is whether the swing voters will be willing to vote for a criminal . . . or whether they see the conviction as irrelevant or politically motivated.

My instinct is that this is good for Biden. But my instinct was that the USA wouldn't have have elected Trump the first time. Who knows what they'll do? It makes a coup or civil war more likely (if still unlikely . . . I hope?).

If only the Dems has a more appealing candidate.

In any sensible universe trump would be dead in the water but somehow he’s still in the race, or at least was let’s see how the opinion polls change after this verdict.

I think anything is possible. This may actually improve his polling of the victimhood thing catches on and more Dem support is pulled away from Biden over Gaza.

[Sandydragon]

Look like a constant affected Churchill-like scowl and tough man eyes for the cameras is no substitute for a grown up actual legal defence. Fucking hilarious. I hope he goes inside, even for 6 months. Sometime around November would be ideal.

Presumably, if he were incarcerated that would mean he couldn’t campaign, even virtually from the prison?

[Which Tyler]

Look like a constant affected Churchill-like scowl and tough man eyes for the cameras is no substitute for a grown up actual legal defence. Fucking hilarious. I hope he goes inside, even for 6 months. Sometime around November would be ideal.

Presumably, if he were incarcerated that would mean he couldn’t campaign, even virtually from the prison?

He won't ever see the inside of a prison cell.

As an ex-president, he has a Secret Service escort, which would be entirely incompatible with Prison, so house arrest at Mar A Largo is the best anyone can hope for.
As a rich white man in America, convicted of a white-collar crime, short-sentence house arrest is the best anyone can hope for.

On top of that, this surely isn't the end of the road, final decision will be delayed by appeal after appeal after appeal, until either he's elected president and pardons himself, or it reaches the Supreme Court where his cronies will ignore the constitution and A] not recuse themselves and B] let him off, probably without even bothering with a fig-leaf of respectability (same reason he's now allowed to stand for president despite being expressly forbidden by the constitution, which does NOT say "a convicted felon cannot stand for public office... except for president, that one's fine")

[Sandydragon]

You’re probably right WT and the impartiality of the Supreme Court is now badly broken. Many Republicans using the letter of the law to avoid making him their enemy, Mitch McConnell springs to mind in the impeachment debates. The Republican leadership has signed up for a cult.

[Which Tyler]

In terms of the upcoming election Stateside, a huge amount will (presumably) depend on the judge of the first appeal case.

If Trump is under house arrest during campaign season, and unable to hold his cult rallies, it will make a huge difference to his chances there.

If the appeal judge thinks "innocent until proven-to-me that you're guilty" and "low risk of flight, low risk of (physically) harming others" and he's free to rally whilst the appeals are ongoing, then this conviction is probably going to add energy to his base (and implicit threat to his opponents).

I know this really ought to be a side-issue from his conviction for criminal activity, but it's impossible to parse them.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I don't think he can pardon himself for this as it's a state-level case. If an appeal was able to reach the conservative-controlled supreme court, of course, he'd be free as a bird.

I think appeals processes would keep him out of jail till the election.

It's all about how those swing voters in those swing states see the conviction.

I find it difficult to judge since, to me, Trump has always been totally unfit for office.

[Sandydragon]

But even the appeals process would keep him away from the campaign trail, at least to a degree, since he would need to be in court.

[Sandydragon]

A point made on a podcast earlier was that this was the weakest case on paper, and it’s just returned 34 guilty verdicts. The secret documents case might be more open and shut but perhaps less damning since every president hoards papers, so the nuance might be lost. The Heorgia case is really interesting as that’s another state case that Trump can’t pardon himself from. Hopefully the prosecutors can keep themselves out of the spotlight long enough to get it to trial.

[J Dory]

I don't believe this will go to the US supreme court, there isn't a constitutional question to be answered here and he wasn't president when the crimes were committed. No expert but why would they even hear this case?

I think this is a good thing for Biden in that a hung jury or not guilty verdict would have been more fuel for Trump. Now he's a convicted felon.

Who'd want to be a Trump defense lawyer? Rather than focusing on winning the case they were forced to spend their time attacking Stormy Daniels and Cowen cause Trump couldn't as he was gagged. Had to insist sex didn't happen (no doubt ordered by Trump) opening them up to Stormy Daniels re-telling the details of the encounter in the court room. Beautiful, Trump fucks Trump by being Trump in court, again. Next case please.

[paddy no 11]

Would be great if melania sent in the divorce papers now

She was pregnant when this was going on apparently

[paddy no 11]

Also I see the casual trump supporters are claiming this is good for him but realistically it's not. If anyone hasn't bought into the poor me bullshit up to this point then they definitely aren't now and he'll lose marginals. (Biden should be doing is utmost for a ceasefire and he'd have this in the bag)

[Sandydragon]

Would be great if melania sent in the divorce papers now

She was pregnant when this was going on apparently

I’d love to know the details of their prenup or what ever contract they have now. She’s hardly been seen with Trump for a very long time; something tells me that he is paying her, or her son, a lot of money for her not to walk away.

[morepork]

A test of the sanity of the USA awaits in November. Assuming the Republican party fails that test in July and selects him.

No doubt Trump's base will be even more fired up for Trump the martyr, but they can't vote more. The question is whether the swing voters will be willing to vote for a criminal . . . or whether they see the conviction as irrelevant or politically motivated.

My instinct is that this is good for Biden. But my instinct was that the USA wouldn't have have elected Trump the first time. Who knows what they'll do? It makes a coup or civil war more likely (if still unlikely . . . I hope?).

He didn’t win the vote. The Civil War hangover of the electoral college gave the fat cunt water wings

[Son of Mathonwy]

A test of the sanity of the USA awaits in November. Assuming the Republican party fails that test in July and selects him.

No doubt Trump's base will be even more fired up for Trump the martyr, but they can't vote more. The question is whether the swing voters will be willing to vote for a criminal . . . or whether they see the conviction as irrelevant or politically motivated.

My instinct is that this is good for Biden. But my instinct was that the USA wouldn't have have elected Trump the first time. Who knows what they'll do? It makes a coup or civil war more likely (if still unlikely . . . I hope?).

He didn’t win the vote. The Civil War hangover of the electoral college gave the fat cunt water wings

He won it, US-style. A shining example of democracy.

[Sandydragon]

So he will appeal. No surprise I guess since accepting the verdict would have meant accepting it wasn’t a sham trial as he argued throughout. I wonder how the appeal and his need to be in court will impact other trials? I’ve lost track a bit of which ones are likely to be heard prior to the election.

[Puja]

So he will appeal. No surprise I guess since accepting the verdict would have meant accepting it wasn’t a sham trial as he argued throughout. I wonder how the appeal and his need to be in court will impact other trials? I’ve lost track a bit of which ones are likely to be heard prior to the election.

All the other ones are gonna be delayed until after the election - the documents one has a Trump-friendly judge who is delaying, the federal one has gone to the Supreme Court to see if he's completely immune. The Georgia one was the only one that could've made the deadline, and that's been stymied by the prosecutors' inability to keep it in their pants.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

So he will appeal. No surprise I guess since accepting the verdict would have meant accepting it wasn’t a sham trial as he argued throughout. I wonder how the appeal and his need to be in court will impact other trials? I’ve lost track a bit of which ones are likely to be heard prior to the election.

All the other ones are gonna be delayed until after the election - the documents one has a Trump-friendly judge who is delaying, the federal one has gone to the Supreme Court to see if he's completely immune. The Georgia one was the only one that could've made the deadline, and that's been stymied by the prosecutors' inability to keep it in their pants.

Puja

Thanks. I understand that the Georgia case may also find itself impacted by the Supreme Court verdict which could be interesting. So much will hang on that outcome.

Arguably if the president is found to have unlimited immunity whilst in power, there’s nothing stopping Biden other than his own conscience from properly hammering Trump.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

GOT HIM!!!!!!!!

Well sort of...

From listening to a slightly obsessive number of podcasts on the subject - I would recommend "Lawfare: Trump Trials and Tribulations" as the best mix of federal and state lawyerly and journalistic knowledge:
He'll probably get sentenced before the election. There's a decent chance he'll get a short period of some form of custody. He'll appeal through through the NY court system and have bail pending appeal which is pretty normal. Appeals are unlikely to complete before the There is at least one constitutional appeal which could go to SCOTUS on unanimity, which is a genuine issue (and here in England the jury direction would probably be considered defective on that basis) and possibly on the bootstrap issue. If it gets to SCOTUS it hits the Alito and Thomas of it all and a bunch of Republican hacks who don't give a fuck about precedent, or evidential or record, or law and work backwards from the result. Sure they might worry for 5 minutes about setting a precedent which means they cannot lock everyone up - thon feckers actually decided that even if you were found guilty of something which wasn't actually a crime, if you didn't appeal quickly enough then tough shit - but they'll just tee up another case to explain how the Trump case isn't actually a precedent.

Georgia RICO: never likely to be heard before the election due to a cast of thousands but currently on a bit of a go slow.

Jack Smith's Florida documents: being fucked by Trump appointed Judge Cannon who is avoiding making any final decisions so that it goes slow and to prevent the prosecution from appealing and getting her taken off the case.

Jack Smith's Jan 6 case: the republicans on SCOTUS currently trying to find a way of saying that Republican presidents have complete immunity but Democrats can't decide even to revoke student debt.

[Sandydragon]

Eugene, what’s your money on the expected SCotUS verdict due soon? Are you expecting a fudge that just kicks the can down the road until the election is over or something that actually defines the limits of presidential immunity?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Eugene, what’s your money on the expected SCotUS verdict due soon? Are you expecting a fudge that just kicks the can down the road until the election is over or something that actually defines the limits of presidential immunity?

The smart money at the moment on the immunity argument is delay. I think they'll make a rule that some official adverts of the president attract immunity but which is yet to be determined. They'll send it back to the trial court to make those determinations so that they can then say they're completely wrong and that strangely everything Trump did was immune but nothing else.

[Sandydragon]

Eugene, what’s your money on the expected SCotUS verdict due soon? Are you expecting a fudge that just kicks the can down the road until the election is over or something that actually defines the limits of presidential immunity?

The smart money at the moment on the immunity argument is delay. I think they'll make a rule that some official adverts of the president attract immunity but which is yet to be determined. They'll send it back to the trial court to make those determinations so that they can then say they're completely wrong and that strangely everything Trump did was immune but nothing else.

And by the time the lower court works that out it will be election time anyway so a moot point in many ways. And the Republicans dare to blame the Dems for lawfare! The abuse of the Supreme Court is a disgrace

[Sandydragon]

Hunter Biden is guilty.

Not a great look for his dad. In any sane world, the comparison between the ethics of Joe Biden and Trump would be clear cut and not a debate. Sadly I do think Hunters conviction will hurt the Democrats later this year.

[Puja]

Hunter Biden is guilty.

Not a great look for his dad. In any sane world, the comparison between the ethics of Joe Biden and Trump would be clear cut and not a debate. Sadly I do think Hunters conviction will hurt the Democrats later this year.

It is bizarre cognitive dissonance on the part of the Republicans. Trump found guilty means that Biden is controlling and weaponising the courts, except in this case apparently, where Hunter committed terrible crimes against {checks notes} gun control laws, which of course are obscene and unconstitutional restrictions on liberty, except in this case.

Puja

[Mikey Brown]

Hunter Biden is guilty.

Not a great look for his dad. In any sane world, the comparison between the ethics of Joe Biden and Trump would be clear cut and not a debate. Sadly I do think Hunters conviction will hurt the Democrats later this year.

It is bizarre cognitive dissonance on the part of the Republicans. Trump found guilty means that Biden is controlling and weaponising the courts, except in this case apparently, where Hunter committed terrible crimes against {checks notes} gun control laws, which of course are obscene and unconstitutional restrictions on liberty, except in this case.

Puja

I just saw the incredible take that he is the sacrificial lamb from the Dems in order to balance out their fraudulent case against Trump and make it look more legitimate. Awesome stuff. Thank the lord for Twitter.

[Sandydragon]

Hunter Biden is guilty.

Not a great look for his dad. In any sane world, the comparison between the ethics of Joe Biden and Trump would be clear cut and not a debate. Sadly I do think Hunters conviction will hurt the Democrats later this year.

It is bizarre cognitive dissonance on the part of the Republicans. Trump found guilty means that Biden is controlling and weaponising the courts, except in this case apparently, where Hunter committed terrible crimes against {checks notes} gun control laws, which of course are obscene and unconstitutional restrictions on liberty, except in this case.

Puja

I just saw the incredible take that he is the sacrificial lamb from the Dems in order to balance out their fraudulent case against Trump and make it look more legitimate. Awesome stuff. Thank the lord for Twitter.

It does make it more difficult for Trump to argue that the judicial system is rigged against him when the President's only son (noting the tragic loss of 2 other children plus his first wife) has been convicted for a crime which (as Puja suggests) many Republicans feel shouldnt be a crime at all.

Almost biblical in nature. And very hard for Trump to make hay with without making himself looking the chimp. Not that his team seem to have that level of sophisticated thought or his core supporters will care regardless, but it might help sway undecided voters.