Snap General Election called

[Sandydragon]

Speculation that Sunak called it rather than face a leadership challenge. Plausible I guess given the somewhat rushed announcement (outside, in the rain without an umbrella. Really sensible that)

Whatever the motivation, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that we have a chance in a few weeks to remove this disgracefully bad Government.

It's not entirely clear if the letters of no confidence preceded the speculation that a general election was to be called or were a result of that speculation. Either is possible. It felt a bit rushed, but then again it might have been a preplanned option if the financial news was sufficiently promising.

My feeling is that Sunak wouldn't cut his premiership short by 6 months if he didn't have to. But we may never know. Still, if it was a bunch of disgruntled Tory MPs I say, well done, you'll get your leadership election soon.

I'm coming round to that way of thinking. Cameron pulling out of a foreign trip isnt something you do for fun. Albania isnt a major power but its still a huge slap in the face. Also, I was listening to 'The News Agents' podcast this morning and they mentioned that there isnt a complete list of Conservative candidates for every constituency yet. That's a major embarassment for how well prepared the party machinery is for this. Admittedly, those seasts are probably low chance of winning, but it would be a huge problem not to field a candidate everywhere. Equally if they try to rush candidates in and there's any dirt on them that isnt picked up by due diligence, that too will be embarrassing.

There was also the comment made that some of the council and mayoral losses might have been avoided if the General Election was held in May. Many voters cant be bothered with those elections but might have got the core vote out if the GE had been the same day. Im not sure I agree with this, but it is a fair point that the turnout would have been higher and that could have affected some outcomes. If nothign else, Sunak is making his local party activists get stuck into campaigning again straight after a major kicking.

[Mikey Brown]

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

[Son of Mathonwy]

Hopefully??? this will be the last we see of Farage in this campaign, but what is it with this guy? Okay I get that he's too lazy to want to be an actual MP and/or doesn't want to be seen to fail miserably to win a seat, but why is he not even helping launch his own party's campaign? Has he been paid off? (And probably not for the first time.)

[Son of Mathonwy]

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

[Sandydragon]

Hopefully??? this will be the last we see of Farage in this campaign, but what is it with this guy? Okay I get that he's too lazy to want to be an actual MP and/or doesn't want to be seen to fail miserably to win a seat, but why is he not even helping launch his own party's campaign? Has he been paid off? (And probably not for the first time.)

Its a bit odd isnt it. I get that perhaps he doesnt want to be rejected for paarliament for the 9th (?) time. Maybe he has finally taken the hint. But as life presdient and owner of Reform UK, I would have expected him to have out in a shift promoting their cause. But he prefers to help Trump.

How much is Trump paying him - bearing in mind the quite real possibility Trump will be president next year? What promise has been made there? Or has Rishi offered him a peerage in his departure nominations just to keep his head down. Somethign doesnt read right about this.

AS it stands, this is probably better news for the Conservatives from whom Farage would have peeled a lot of votes. It doesnt make their life any better right now, they are still 20 odd points behind but saves the mthe embarassment of falling into third place.

[Sandydragon]

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

They all do it. Total bullshit.

[Puja]

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

The Prime Minister thanked the hi-vis jacket-wearing man for his “important question” without declaring that he was local Conservative Councillor Ross Hills

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

Given what happened today, when Rishi mingled with ordinary people, they're probably better going back to the planted questioners. He decided to ask a bunch of people in Wales whether they were "excited for the football this summer". He was then visibly confused at the lack of enthusiasm until someone pointed out that Wales have not qualified for the Euros and they were hardly going to be supporting England.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Is this shit even surprising to anybody?

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/05/23/rish ... ary-voter/

I imagine the Tories have some difficulty persuading working class people to appear with Sunak. (Unless ordered to by their superior officer.)

Given what happened today, when Rishi mingled with ordinary people, they're probably better going back to the planted questioners. He decided to ask a bunch of people in Wales whether they were "excited for the football this summer". He was then visibly confused at the lack of enthusiasm until someone pointed out that Wales have not qualified for the Euros and they were hardly going to be supporting England.

Puja

He's not the first Englishman to be confused by that.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Hopefully??? this will be the last we see of Farage in this campaign, but what is it with this guy? Okay I get that he's too lazy to want to be an actual MP and/or doesn't want to be seen to fail miserably to win a seat, but why is he not even helping launch his own party's campaign? Has he been paid off? (And probably not for the first time.)

Its a bit odd isnt it. I get that perhaps he doesnt want to be rejected for paarliament for the 9th (?) time. Maybe he has finally taken the hint. But as life presdient and owner of Reform UK, I would have expected him to have out in a shift promoting their cause. But he prefers to help Trump.

How much is Trump paying him - bearing in mind the quite real possibility Trump will be president next year? What promise has been made there? Or has Rishi offered him a peerage in his departure nominations just to keep his head down. Somethign doesnt read right about this.

AS it stands, this is probably better news for the Conservatives from whom Farage would have peeled a lot of votes. It doesnt make their life any better right now, they are still 20 odd points behind but saves the mthe embarassment of falling into third place.

It's not for Trump. What good can Farage do for Trump in the next 6 weeks? He's keeping his head down, not actually sabotaging his own party but certainly not helping it. And it's not like Brexit is in the balance as in 2019. Either he's been offered or paid something or he's keeping the Tories sweet so he can join and dominate them in their post-apocalyptic post-election condition.

[Zhivago]

My two pennies:
- Loved the pathetic announcement in the pouring rain. What a shambles this government is, can't even organise a marquee or an umbrella. I guess indeed it was rushed to beat a no confidence attempt.
- I think students are registered to vote where they live at uni, so maybe that's why he called it during the summer holiday period?
- I'm flying back to vote (booked my flights today), because I will enjoy the physical act of submitting my choice in the ballot box.

[Stom]

My two pennies:
- Loved the pathetic announcement in the pouring rain. What a shambles this government is, can't even organise a marquee or an umbrella. I guess indeed it was rushed to beat a no confidence attempt.
- I think students are registered to vote where they live at uni, so maybe that's why he called it during the summer holiday period?
- I'm flying back to vote (booked my flights today), because I will enjoy the physical act of submitting my choice in the ballot box.

I don't want to be burnt, so I'll be voting by proxy. Last time I voted in person, but the time before, my postal ballot arrived too late to get back in time for the election...hmmm...

[Which Tyler]

- I think students are registered to vote where they live at uni, so maybe that's why he called it during the summer holiday period?

Students can be registered in both (though they have to actually register).
I definitely recommend postal ballots for students - anything at all to make voting easier. Even if you miss the deadline, you can still vote in person, using the postal ballot.

[Zhivago]

My two pennies:
- Loved the pathetic announcement in the pouring rain. What a shambles this government is, can't even organise a marquee or an umbrella. I guess indeed it was rushed to beat a no confidence attempt.
- I think students are registered to vote where they live at uni, so maybe that's why he called it during the summer holiday period?
- I'm flying back to vote (booked my flights today), because I will enjoy the physical act of submitting my choice in the ballot box.

I don't want to be burnt, so I'll be voting by proxy. Last time I voted in person, but the time before, my postal ballot arrived too late to get back in time for the election...hmmm...

I will openly tell you Stom, as you are in a similar situation to me, that I will vote Lib Dems, because of their votes for life policy. Labour have always been against it, and I'm coming up to the 15 year threshold. I was happy the Tories repealed that, but they probably only did so because of their desire to get dodgy foreign donations.

[Puja]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

[Zhivago]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

As all the other parties are saying - just fund the armed forces properly. ffs.

[Son of Mathonwy]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

As all the other parties are saying - just fund the armed forces properly. ffs.

Joke of a policy, although it may well have appeal for Reform UK voters. Will it make it into the manifesto though?

[Which Tyler]

[morepork]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Punching down. Pathetic.

[Puja]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Punching down. Pathetic.

It's a valid calculation about Kier Starmer's appeal with the youth though. It's a deeply unpopular policy with everyone south of 30, but Sunak's facing an opponent who is deeply unpopular with everyone south of 30, so I'd imagine he's looked at it and concluded it's hardly going to matter if the youth are already unenthused and better to throw red meat at the older Reform voters.

Puja

[morepork]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Punching down. Pathetic.

It's a valid calculation about Kier Starmer's appeal with the youth though. It's a deeply unpopular policy with everyone south of 30, but Sunak's facing an opponent who is deeply unpopular with everyone south of 30, so I'd imagine he's looked at it and concluded it's hardly going to matter if the youth are already unenthused and better to throw red meat at the older Reform voters.

Puja

Yeah. Punching down. It's tired cynical bullshit nonsense. If 18 year olds have to do national service, then everyone 50 or older must do one year of diversity training or suffer an additional 30% income tax rate.

[Sandydragon]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Ho hum.

Clearly the world is a more dangerous place and our armed forces are very under resourced. A major war with Russia will chew up a lot of men and materiel, neither of which we have an abundance of. Basically we’re back in 1914, with a well trained and fairly well equipped army but just not enough people.


If we get into a major conflict we will need to introduce conscription. Sadly that’s a given. However this policy is just designed to appeal to baby boomer Daily Mail readers.

Firstly the amount of money is too small.
We have no accommodation to house or rain the 30 thousand or so young people eagerly signing up for this.
Who will instruct them? Front line units will end up being reduced to manage training establishments.
Military discipline now isn’t based on corporal punishment and hanging people. It is based on the needs of a volunteer force. How will the military manage with a bunch of kids who just might not want to be there?
What use will these kids be? Basic training will take (assuming they are all non commissioned) at least 8-12 weeks. Then what? If they are to be cyber warriors (just fuck off with that name for starters) then where will they be trained and what about training backlogs for regulars now? Ditto for logistical and disaster response people.
What happens at the end of one year? Do they have a reserve commitment of x years or so we just hope they will join the regulars?
If this is a serious policy then why do senior military leadership seem so confused by it, plus many ministers!

Better would be to replace the munitions we have given to Ukraine and behind to stockpile so the existing military can actually operate for more than 5 minutes. Then stockpile for a buildup of personnel so they have correct equipment and weapons at hand once they are called up. Also speak to the thousands of veterans who have a reserve commitment but have been ignored since they left. Perhaps look at getting them in for an assessment of their fitness, after all they are already trained. Promise them medical and dental care for a minimal commitment and everyone will be fairly content. They could be the core of reserve bolstering for front line units or potentially rear echelon staff/ home defence of the shit hit the fan.

Furthermore, given the current performance of Capita in recruiting military personnel, it would be a small miracle of 30 joined up on time, not 30 thousand.

We also need to urgently develop better military ties with the EU, especially given the risk of a Trump victory later this year. It might need a EU army under single chain of command, or at the least very close cooperation to put a credible force into the field.

[Sandydragon]

- I think students are registered to vote where they live at uni, so maybe that's why he called it during the summer holiday period?

Students can be registered in both (though they have to actually register).
I definitely recommend postal ballots for students - anything at all to make voting easier. Even if you miss the deadline, you can still vote in person, using the postal ballot.

Students can also decide where their vote will be more
Impactful.

[morepork]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Ho hum.

Clearly the world is a more dangerous place and our armed forces are very under resourced. A major war with Russia will chew up a lot of men and materiel, neither of which we have an abundance of. Basically we’re back in 1914, with a well trained and fairly well equipped army but just not enough people.


If we get into a major conflict we will need to introduce conscription. Sadly that’s a given. However this policy is just designed to appeal to baby boomer Daily Mail readers.

Firstly the amount of money is too small.
We have no accommodation to house or rain the 30 thousand or so young people eagerly signing up for this.
Who will instruct them? Front line units will end up being reduced to manage training establishments.
Military discipline now isn’t based on corporal punishment and hanging people. It is based on the needs of a volunteer force. How will the military manage with a bunch of kids who just might not want to be there?
What use will these kids be? Basic training will take (assuming they are all non commissioned) at least 8-12 weeks. Then what? If they are to be cyber warriors (just fuck off with that name for starters) then where will they be trained and what about training backlogs for regulars now? Ditto for logistical and disaster response people.
What happens at the end of one year? Do they have a reserve commitment of x years or so we just hope they will join the regulars?
If this is a serious policy then why do senior military leadership seem so confused by it, plus many ministers!

Better would be to replace the munitions we have given to Ukraine and behind to stockpile so the existing military can actually operate for more than 5 minutes. Then stockpile for a buildup of personnel so they have correct equipment and weapons at hand once they are called up. Also speak to the thousands of veterans who have a reserve commitment but have been ignored since they left. Perhaps look at getting them in for an assessment of their fitness, after all they are already trained. Promise them medical and dental care for a minimal commitment and everyone will be fairly content. They could be the core of reserve bolstering for front line units or potentially rear echelon staff/ home defence of the shit hit the fan.

Furthermore, given the current performance of Capita in recruiting military personnel, it would be a small miracle of 30 joined up on time, not 30 thousand.

We also need to urgently develop better military ties with the EU, especially given the risk of a Trump victory later this year. It might need a EU army under single chain of command, or at the least very close cooperation to put a credible force into the field.

What major conflict? Isn't NATO meant to present a united buffer against a truly rouge state? Is the UK under imminent threat such that it would have to act unilaterally against a foe? How much life and resource has been spunked away destroying Iraq? There is no rational, cogent argument to support a compulsory service directive made in response to a snap election. The two issues don't belong in the same room together.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Punching down. Pathetic.

It's a valid calculation about Kier Starmer's appeal with the youth though. It's a deeply unpopular policy with everyone south of 30, but Sunak's facing an opponent who is deeply unpopular with everyone south of 30, so I'd imagine he's looked at it and concluded it's hardly going to matter if the youth are already unenthused and better to throw red meat at the older Reform voters.

Puja

Yeah. Punching down. It's tired cynical bullshit nonsense. If 18 year olds have to do national service, then everyone 50 or older must do one year of diversity training or suffer an additional 30% income tax rate.

Rishi's just doing his best to get the youth vote out.

I am enjoying the concept of mandatory volunteer work. The Tories put the moron into oxymoron.

[Sandydragon]

National Service. The answer to the question that nobody's been asking.

Puja

Ho hum.

Clearly the world is a more dangerous place and our armed forces are very under resourced. A major war with Russia will chew up a lot of men and materiel, neither of which we have an abundance of. Basically we’re back in 1914, with a well trained and fairly well equipped army but just not enough people.


If we get into a major conflict we will need to introduce conscription. Sadly that’s a given. However this policy is just designed to appeal to baby boomer Daily Mail readers.

Firstly the amount of money is too small.
We have no accommodation to house or rain the 30 thousand or so young people eagerly signing up for this.
Who will instruct them? Front line units will end up being reduced to manage training establishments.
Military discipline now isn’t based on corporal punishment and hanging people. It is based on the needs of a volunteer force. How will the military manage with a bunch of kids who just might not want to be there?
What use will these kids be? Basic training will take (assuming they are all non commissioned) at least 8-12 weeks. Then what? If they are to be cyber warriors (just fuck off with that name for starters) then where will they be trained and what about training backlogs for regulars now? Ditto for logistical and disaster response people.
What happens at the end of one year? Do they have a reserve commitment of x years or so we just hope they will join the regulars?
If this is a serious policy then why do senior military leadership seem so confused by it, plus many ministers!

Better would be to replace the munitions we have given to Ukraine and behind to stockpile so the existing military can actually operate for more than 5 minutes. Then stockpile for a buildup of personnel so they have correct equipment and weapons at hand once they are called up. Also speak to the thousands of veterans who have a reserve commitment but have been ignored since they left. Perhaps look at getting them in for an assessment of their fitness, after all they are already trained. Promise them medical and dental care for a minimal commitment and everyone will be fairly content. They could be the core of reserve bolstering for front line units or potentially rear echelon staff/ home defence of the shit hit the fan.

Furthermore, given the current performance of Capita in recruiting military personnel, it would be a small miracle of 30 joined up on time, not 30 thousand.

We also need to urgently develop better military ties with the EU, especially given the risk of a Trump victory later this year. It might need a EU army under single chain of command, or at the least very close cooperation to put a credible force into the field.

What major conflict? Isn't NATO meant to present a united buffer against a truly rouge state? Is the UK under imminent threat such that it would have to act unilaterally against a foe? How much life and resource has been spunked away destroying Iraq? There is no rational, cogent argument to support a compulsory service directive made in response to a snap election. The two issues don't belong in the same room together.

Are you ignoring Eastern Europe at the moment? There is a reasonable possibility that nato could end up fighting Russia at some point and many nato members are badly prepared for that, particularly if the IS decides it’s not interested under a Trump regime. Comparing that possibility to Iraq is somewhat absurd.

And if you read my post carefully you will see that I’m not calling for conscription now. Just planning for when it might be required and the bolstering of what we already have.