If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

Belarus now making noises about Ukranians blowing up border bridges, shooting guards, and making plans for an invasion of their country, even going as far with the sham as to summon the UKR ambassador to denounce said invasion plans. Looks like Lukachenko's decided he's willing to risk his dictatorship to try and bolster Putin's.

Seems a weird time for it. Yes, Putin needs the pressure of continual UKR victories removed asap, but with the mud and winter coming in, won't any Belarussian column towards Kyiv suffer the same fate as the Russian one in Feb?

Puja

These attacks on Ukrainian citizens are coming from Belarus territory. Even so, I doubt Ukraine is planning an invasion, and I don't think they'd be blowing up their border bridges if they were going to invade. I wouldn't blame Ukraine for taking decisive pre-emptive action against Lukashenko's belligerence.

If Belarus invades Ukraine, it'll end up much worse for them than it did for the Russian Kyiv grouping. Ukraine is battle hardened now.

[Sandydragon]

Unless Russia has troops ready to go in Belarus then nothing is happening. It might be a way to tie up UKR troops in defending Kiev.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Unless Russia has troops ready to go in Belarus then nothing is happening. It might be a way to tie up UKR troops in defending Kiev.

Putin's happy to see more troops thrown into the meat grinder at this stage, no matter the source.

[Puja]

Unless Russia has troops ready to go in Belarus then nothing is happening. It might be a way to tie up UKR troops in defending Kiev.

Putin's happy to see more troops thrown into the meat grinder at this stage, no matter the source.

Sandy raises a good point though. While Lukashenko's an idiot, he's a devious and cunning idiot who's managed to stay atop a murder pile for a good long while. He's not going to chuck his own troops away for nothing.

Puja

[Zhivago]

Unless Russia has troops ready to go in Belarus then nothing is happening. It might be a way to tie up UKR troops in defending Kiev.

Putin's happy to see more troops thrown into the meat grinder at this stage, no matter the source.

Sandy raises a good point though. While Lukashenko's an idiot, he's a devious and cunning idiot who's managed to stay atop a murder pile for a good long while. He's not going to chuck his own troops away for nothing.

Puja

A salient point

I read this recently, which is relevant. Far from a certainty, but an interesting possibility:

In addition, one should not discount the cunning of Lukashenka, whose dictatorship is older than Putin's. As long as Putin presses, Lukashenko will try to "loop". In particular, he is now trying to enlist the support of China.

"The level of China's diplomatic relations with Belarus is a step higher than with Russia. Lukashenko has already been invited by Xi Jinping to the People's Republic of China after the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (held on October 16). Additional agreements may appear during the congress. And if Lukashenko receives certain guarantees from China regarding the protection of Belarusian sovereignty, then the official Minsk will talk to Moscow from different positions. Lukashenko will be able to behave with Putin in the same way as the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev behaves", - notes Ihar Tyshkevich.

So while Putin is trying to make Lukashenka even more toxic (like himself), Lukashenka is trying to bide his time at least until the situation with China becomes clearer.

[Zhivago]

[Son of Mathonwy]

That's the power of a nuclear defence (in the hands of a dictator) - the ability to bomb your enemy's cities and not get yours bombed in return. Pretty sickening.

[Zhivago]

That's the power of a nuclear defence (in the hands of a dictator) - the ability to bomb your enemy's cities and not get yours bombed in return. Pretty sickening.

Ukraine should never have given up nukes.

[Sandydragon]

Unless Russia has troops ready to go in Belarus then nothing is happening. It might be a way to tie up UKR troops in defending Kiev.

Putin's happy to see more troops thrown into the meat grinder at this stage, no matter the source.

Sandy raises a good point though. While Lukashenko's an idiot, he's a devious and cunning idiot who's managed to stay atop a murder pile for a good long while. He's not going to chuck his own troops away for nothing.

Puja

The cunning idiot has been saying plenty today as more Russian troops arrive in Belarus along with heavy equipment. Hopefully western intelligence can get and idea of the numbers involved and whether it constitutes a real invasion force or just one designed to tie down defenders.

[Son of Mathonwy]

That's the power of a nuclear defence (in the hands of a dictator) - the ability to bomb your enemy's cities and not get yours bombed in return. Pretty sickening.

Ukraine should never have given up nukes.

Yep, so it turns out. Tragic for the world that a country's paying such a price for giving up its nukes. Doesn't exactly encourage disarmament.

Having said that, being in NATO or the EU offers similar (if ultimately inferior) protection.

[Zhivago]

[Sandydragon]

Can we expect more pearls of wisdom from Musk now he has (almost) control of Twitter? As if the world isn't suffering enough.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Can we expect more pearls of wisdom from Musk now he has (almost) control of Twitter? As if the world isn't suffering enough.

He has a colossally overvalued car company therefore, by some logic I can't understand, the answer is yes.

[Which Tyler]

[Mellsblue]

Don’t believe the Germans promises until the equipment is in Ukraine. They’ve been promising missile defence systems for over four months but sadly they hadn’t arrived in time for the attacks in retaliation for the strike on Kerch Bridge. The govt even managed to fail to authorise an export permit when Ukraine placed an order direct with the supplier.

[Which Tyler]

I absolutely stand to be wrong here, but wasn't Germany's issues to do with arms and armaments, but clothes, rations, medical kit etc were all going through fine?

[Mellsblue]

No idea. I’m just angry that German (in)actions, past and present, are making a terrible situation even worse.

[Which Tyler]

Absolutely fair.


I think it's also worth saying that, as ever with these supply things, it's not new stuff being given to Ukraine; it's old stuff, sometimes severely outdated stuff, bring given to Ukraine, whilst the donator gets brand new stuff (IIRC France and a few others are exceptions here).

So, for example, Canada, Spain and Germany have just given 200,000 winter clothing kits to Ukraine - they're not new kits, they're probably 10+ years old, and taken out of storage. Canada, Spain and Germany will then buy new stuff for themselves.
Poland, Lithuainia etc are giving (updated) Soviet era tanks, and planes and APCs; and getting new NATO kit.

USA aren't spending $5B (or whatever the current figure is) of "stuff" to Ukraine; they're buying $5B worth of "stuff" for themselves, and giving basically the oldest equivalents they have in storage, to Ukraine.
Same with UK, same with virtually everywhere (with some headline exceptions, like HIMARS).


I'd bet real money that 99% of the food and medical supplies being donated are basically at their use-by date (which is fine, they're being given to be used, not to be put into storage).

[Which Tyler]

WWII era dogfights - for modern warfare

[Zhivago]

https://apnews.com/article/ukrainian-ch ... 7986d85ef6

... Russia’s open effort to adopt Ukrainian children and bring them up as Russian is already well underway, in one of the most explosive issues of the war, an Associated Press investigation shows. ...

[Which Tyler]

We've known about it for 6 months+, they've "just" ramped things up in Kherson specifically.


Elsewhere, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... et-ukraine

[Son of Mathonwy]

We've known about it for 6 months+, they've "just" ramped things up in Kherson specifically.


Elsewhere, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... et-ukraine

Useful idiot.

[Which Tyler]

Looks like Ukraine have started new offensives - renewed in Kherson and new Zhaporizhzhia, including softening up the southern bank on the East-West section of the Dnipro lake bit (apologies for the technical and accurate regional names).


Presumably the first phase would be to encourage Russia to use what resources they currently have in the area, now that the Kerch Bridge upgrading to slipway, means that they can't resupply in bulk

[Sandydragon]

Absolutely fair.


I think it's also worth saying that, as ever with these supply things, it's not new stuff being given to Ukraine; it's old stuff, sometimes severely outdated stuff, bring given to Ukraine, whilst the donator gets brand new stuff (IIRC France and a few others are exceptions here).

So, for example, Canada, Spain and Germany have just given 200,000 winter clothing kits to Ukraine - they're not new kits, they're probably 10+ years old, and taken out of storage. Canada, Spain and Germany will then buy new stuff for themselves.
Poland, Lithuainia etc are giving (updated) Soviet era tanks, and planes and APCs; and getting new NATO kit.

USA aren't spending $5B (or whatever the current figure is) of "stuff" to Ukraine; they're buying $5B worth of "stuff" for themselves, and giving basically the oldest equivalents they have in storage, to Ukraine.
Same with UK, same with virtually everywhere (with some headline exceptions, like HIMARS).


I'd bet real money that 99% of the food and medical supplies being donated are basically at their use-by date (which is fine, they're being given to be used, not to be put into storage).

Bit harsh n Poland and other nearby states who have donated old Soviet armour. The reason for doing that is the Ukrainians know that kit and can just crack on. Using a modern US or British tank takes a fair bit of training.

[Which Tyler]

Not meant to be harsh, or remotely critical - entirely sensible and with entirely sensible other reasons