If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Sandydragon]

I was just coming to post that - makes the retreat along the Dnipro all the way to Mylove most realistic then - no particular need to waste lives in Dudchany if it's a supply route to... nowhere.

You'd think it's still be a good choke point to kill Ukrainians, but whatever

I think supply and manpower are scarce

And morale.

And leadership.

[Sandydragon]

Seems like the north Kherson front collapsed. I wonder where they'll end up.

The map isnt showing any natural defensive points until you get to Kherson itself. If the Russians are retreating at pace then they won't have a lot of time to establish anything to prevent a river crossing. This is going to take some imaginative and good leadership from the Russian high command (little evidence of that so far).

[Which Tyler]

The map isnt showing any natural defensive points until you get to Kherson itself. If the Russians are retreating at pace then they won't have a lot of time to establish anything to prevent a river crossing. This is going to take some imaginative and good leadership from the Russian high command (little evidence of that so far).

Yup, now they've given up Davydiv Brid, there aren't any more natural defensive positions that can't be easily encircled.
Russia had set rally points, and defensive lines at Dudchany and Mylove - but they only matter much if they held Davidiv Brid.

Next is an "essential" point at Beryslav - where the 2 main roads meet up, and there's a crossing over the Dnipro at Nova Khakova - and control of the entire water supply to Crimea...
It's essential, but not easily defensible.

Next actually defensible point would be the Inhulets estuary, I guess.
Break the line at Stanislav &/ Kyselivka, and that's got to be game over for the Russians in Kherson.

[Sandydragon]

The map isnt showing any natural defensive points until you get to Kherson itself. If the Russians are retreating at pace then they won't have a lot of time to establish anything to prevent a river crossing. This is going to take some imaginative and good leadership from the Russian high command (little evidence of that so far).

Yup, now they've given up Davydiv Brid, there aren't any more natural defensive positions that can't be easily encircled.
Russia had set rally points, and defensive lines at Dudchany and Mylove - but they only matter much if they held Davidiv Brid.

Next is an "essential" point at Beryslav - where the 2 main roads meet up, and there's a crossing over the Dnipro at Nova Khakova - and control of the entire water supply to Crimea...
It's essential, but not easily defensible.

Next actually defensible point would be the Inhulets estuary, I guess.

Yup. Unless the Russians have prepared something (would be surprised if they have given the speed of this) then the estuary is the next natural defensive point. Russia would just play the flexible defence card, but nothing Ive seen in their conduct to date suggests they are able to fight that way and would probably look for something more static.

[Which Tyler]

Rumours abounding that Snihurivka has been liberated (or at least, deserted by Russia) - but so far no actual confirmation / geolocated pictures.

If true, that's huge - it's massively defended by Russia, and opens up a highway straight to Kherson, to the West of the Inhulets.
It's currently a big "IF" though -this one has been rumoured several times, and proven false, with the source generally traced back to pro-Russia channels, presumably in an attempt to suck Ukrainians into a trap.
Here's a report / retelling of rumour - the more cautious places I look have either refused to retell it, of have done so, and subsequently deleted.




NB: Of course, what I had managed to forget in my previous post on Ukraine, Novo Khakhovka is currently the only operable bridge over the Dnipro - If Ukraine gets past Beryslav, then Kherson is entirely cut off (again) for supplies. For Russia, retreating beck behind the Inhulets simply isn't an option, however hard it's going to be to defend Beryslav / Kozatske



ETA: Looks like the original source this time was Russians on Telegram, so... maybe Russians panicking and running away, unlikely Ukrainian liberation (yet), most likely lies. (Have removed the report)

[Zhivago]

Big if true


Also read that there's a ukrainian attack west of kherson too

[Sandydragon]

Rumours abounding that Snihurivka has been liberated (or at least, deserted by Russia) - but so far no actual confirmation / geolocated pictures.

If true, that's huge - it's massively defended by Russia, and opens up a highway straight to Kherson, to the West of the Inhulets.
It's currently a big "IF" though -this one has been rumoured several times, and proven false, with the source generally traced back to pro-Russia channels, presumably in an attempt to suck Ukrainians into a trap.
Here's a report / retelling of rumour - the more cautious places I look have either refused to retell it, of have done so, and subsequently deleted.




NB: Of course, what I had managed to forget in my previous post on Ukraine, Novo Khakhovka is currently the only operable bridge over the Dnipro - If Ukraine gets past Beryslav, then Kherson is entirely cut off (again) for supplies. For Russia, retreating beck behind the Inhulets simply isn't an option, however hard it's going to be to defend Beryslav / Kozatske



ETA: Looks like the original source this time was Russians on Telegram, so... maybe Russians panicking and running away, unlikely Ukrainian liberation (yet), most likely lies. (Have removed the report)

Modern day intelligence officers have the entirely opposite problem to their historical predecessors. Theres almost too much information and working out the gems from the dirt is often not easy.

[Sandydragon]

Big if true


Also read that there's a ukrainian attack west of kherson too

The attack on Kheron makes sense as it will at least pin down Russian defenders who may have been looking to orient to the north.

[Which Tyler]

Modern day intelligence officers have the entirely opposite problem to their historical predecessors. Theres almost too much information and working out the gems from the dirt is often not easy.

And it has to be said, Ukraine are generally doing an absolutely brilliant job of this.

[Sandydragon]

Modern day intelligence officers have the entirely opposite problem to their historical predecessors. Theres almost too much information and working out the gems from the dirt is often not easy.

And it has to be said, Ukraine are generally doing an absolutely brilliant job of this.

Totally agree. Their command system flexibility is allowing them to react better to unfolding events and new information. The Russians are too regimented.

[Sandydragon]

Yesterday's update from Critical Threats team.

https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysi ... -october-4

Some interesting narrative on the various factions in the Russian information space.

[Puja]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-n ... 1664965264

The routs in Kharkiv and Kherson have led to Russis abandoning so much equipment that they are now officially "by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts." Admittedly, a fair chunk of the materiel is junk, vintage, or both, but it sounds like they have got some good shit out of it (5 T90 tanks if nothing else!) and Russia's fuckupa making them the largest provider of military assistance does tickle me somewhat.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

The routs in Kharkiv and Kherson have led to Russis abandoning so much equipment that they are now officially "by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts." Admittedly, a fair chunk of the materiel is junk, vintage, or both, but it sounds like they have got some good shit out of it (5 T90 tanks if nothing else!) and Russia's fuckupa making them the largest provider of military assistance does tickle me somewhat.

I think that's been the case since they retreated from the Kyiv offensive

[Which Tyler]

The daily update:

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... ctober-4-5

In the past 48 hours, Ukraine has prepared for a new offensive in Luhansk oblast and mounted a highly successful offensive in Kherson. Meanwhile, Russia had several costly failed attacks in Donbas and launched terrorist attacks on several Ukrainian cities.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
...
article continues

Or the tweet equivalence


Alternative takes:
https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-224-summary/

Invasion Day 224 – Summary
The summary of the 224th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 5th October 2022 (Kyiv time).
Day summary:
Ukrainian forces maintain steady progress and liberated another bunch of settlements in Kherson, Kharkiv and also Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainians also continue to successfully defend the remaining parts of frontline and don’t allow Russians to advance and capture new positions.
...
article continues

[Which Tyler]

Good analysis of Russian defensive positions at Beryslav etc - the last route across the Dnipro

[Sandydragon]

Good analysis of Russian defensive positions at Beryslav etc - the last route across the Dnipro

I wonder what the Ukrainian army's river crossing capabilities are like? Squeezing Russian troops across the Dnipro is good. Cutting them off would be even better. But that would provide a static target to the Russians to hit which would make it high risk endeavour (plus river crossings aren't fun and in places thats a very wide river/estuary).

[Sandydragon]

Just read this from Prevail Partners on the threat from Belarus to Ukraine. Bottom line is that its a low risk unless Russia provides a lot of extra troops.

https://prevail-group.prezly.com/wester ... ent-wrpurc

[Which Tyler]

I wonder what the Ukrainian army's river crossing capabilities are like? Squeezing Russian troops across the Dnipro is good. Cutting them off would be even better. But that would provide a static target to the Russians to hit which would make it high risk endeavour (plus river crossings aren't fun and in places thats a very wide river/estuary).

"Better that Russia's" - but otherwise, not really known. They've succeeded with several river crossings, but we don't know out of how many attempts - and none as lengthy as here.;

Either way, more likely to head down the left (|East / South) bank of the Dnipro from Kamyansk, the far side of the... lake, essentially, at this point.
But if attempting thay, then due South to Meltiopol looks like it would make more sense; and then head West as part of mopping up.

If you're heading South from Kamyansk - which arrow would you rather follow?

UK.jpg

Now Melitopol would be one hell of a fight - but even controlling the transport routes in the vicinity, and you've cut the Russian's into 2 sections.
Of course, it would also be a big - huge ask, to break through the first line of defence and Kamyansk - because it's such an obvious strategic point to launch from, so they'd probably try to breach further East, and then curve back down that way.
First things first though, and that's kick the Russians out of Kherson and across the Dnipro.

Worry about forcing a crossing there if you've got an attack going elsewhere, and the Russians take their eye off the area - or you control both banks.

The other option that seems obvious to my eye (and still incredibly difficult) would be an amphibious assault to create a beachhead somewhere in between (maybe opposite Mykhailivka?) - but I don't see how you go about getting enough troops and equipment across there to create an actual offensive, without just writing off thousands of lives.

[Sandydragon]

I wonder what the Ukrainian army's river crossing capabilities are like? Squeezing Russian troops across the Dnipro is good. Cutting them off would be even better. But that would provide a static target to the Russians to hit which would make it high risk endeavour (plus river crossings aren't fun and in places thats a very wide river/estuary).

"Better that Russia's" - but otherwise, not really known. They've succeeded with several river crossings, but we don't know out of how many attempts - and none as lengthy as here.;

Either way, more likely to head down the left (|East / South) bank of the Dnipro from Kamyansk, the far side of the... lake, essentially, at this point.
But if attempting thay, then due South to Meltiopol looks like it would make more sense; and then head West as part of mopping up.

If you're heading South from Kamyansk - which arrow would you rather follow?
UK.jpg

Now Melitopol would be one hell of a fight - but even controlling the transport routes in the vicinity, and you've cut the Russian's into 2 sections.
Of course, it would also be a big - huge ask, to break through the first line of defence and Kamyansk - because it's such an obvious strategic point to launch from, so they'd probably try to breach further East, and then curve back down that way.
First things first though, and that's kick the Russians out of Kherson and across the Dnipro.

Worry about forcing a crossing there if you've got an attack going elsewhere, and the Russians take their eye off the area - or you control both banks.

Melitopol becomes very valuable territory (already is to be fair). Moving supplies through the Crimea wouldn't be their first choice Id suggest. But like you say thats fraught with difficulty as it would entail multiple flanks.

[Puja]

Now Melitopol would be one hell of a fight - but even controlling the transport routes in the vicinity, and you've cut the Russian's into 2 sections.
Of course, it would also be a big - huge ask, to break through the first line of defence and Kamyansk - because it's such an obvious strategic point to launch from, so they'd probably try to breach further East, and then curve back down that way.
First things first though, and that's kick the Russians out of Kherson and across the Dnipro.

Worry about forcing a crossing there if you've got an attack going elsewhere, and the Russians take their eye off the area - or you control both banks.

Could always see whether the Russians are stupid enough to fall for the same trick twice - talk up your planned bridge crossing in Kherson, warn everyone you're prepared for a big fight, very obviously build up your forces for the big push and try and suck as many Russians in as you can before unleashing the fast armoured assaults you kept hidden for your actual attack in Zaporizhzhia. See how many times they can make Russia send reinforcements to Kherson before they stop falling for it.

Puja

[Zhivago]

This is what the Russians are anticipating.

[Sandydragon]

This is what the Russians are anticipating.

I can see why. Its been the quietest front from a Ukrainian perspective and it would cut Russian forces in 2. Alternatively the Eastern offensive could keep going and look to get bak Luhansk and Donetsk but that's a long way to go.

They could just push through Kherson as well but thats bridges to rely on for logistics which are fairly easily targeted (as Ukraine has done) and without materiel the Ukrainian forces are going nowhere.

[Which Tyler]

This is what the Russians are anticipating.

Are you sure they didn't just read my post?

[Sandydragon]

This is what the Russians are anticipating.

Are you sure they didn't just read my post?

Maybe they are on this board.

If so then I think the Ukrainians will advance towards Moscow at full strength. Russia should urgently reinforce the area between Smolensk and Ryazan will all available forces.

[Which Tyler]

This is what the Russians are anticipating.

Are you sure they didn't just read my post?

Maybe they are on this board.

If so then I think the Ukrainians will advance towards Moscow at full strength. Russia should urgently reinforce the area between Smolensk and Ryazan will all available forces.

I hear that Georgia are getting punchy again as well; and eyeing up Krasnodar, and even up to Kerch.


Azerbaijan on the other hand, just want the Northern slopes and foothill of the Caucasus.