If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Which Tyler]

If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.

Also worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.

There's no military- strategic advantage to Putin for using a tactical nuke. And even if there were, Russia wouldn't be able to actually capitalise on it (as you said). A strategic nuke will probably see the Black Sea Fleet destroyed, and ICBMs hitting any large concentration of Russian ammunition or manpower, possibly including in Russia itself; with Ukraine getting more HIMARS, and more equipment of every sort; and a very strong chance of NATO militaries allowing their soldiers to go off to Ukraine if they so wish.
The only advantage I can see for Putin using a tactical Nuke is that it gives him an optics off-ramp of being defeated by NATO rather than being defeated by Ukraine.

Do anything other that a tactical nuke, and he's inviting a nuclear response and the loss of any remaining allies (probably including N Korea).


ETA: Sorry, I CAN think of a situation where it might benefit Putin to use tactical Nukes - and that's for when his defensive line is breached, either by assault, or beachhead - then irradiating the area may prevent Ukraine from flooding in through it and getting behind his defences.
That... doesn't seem like a sane option in a world where wind exist, and his own troops would be, by definition, remarkably close to the detonation site - and would also require pretty rapid deployment, and accuracy, in a way that Russia has shown itself to be incapable of for conventional warheads.

[Sandydragon]

If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.

Also worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.

There's no military- strategic advantage to Putin for using a tactical nuke. And even if there were, Russia wouldn't be able to actually capitalise on it (as you said). A strategic nuke will probably see the Black Sea Fleet destroyed, and ICBMs hitting any large concentration of Russian ammunition or manpower, possibly including in Russia itself; with Ukraine getting more HIMARS, and more equipment of every sort; and a very strong chance of NATO militaries allowing their soldiers to go off to Ukraine if they so wish.
The only advantage I can see for Putin using a tactical Nuke is that it gives him an optics off-ramp of being defeated by NATO rather than being defeated by Ukraine.

Do anything other that a tactical nuke, and he's inviting a nuclear response and the loss of any remaining allies (probably including N Korea).

Completely agree about Ukrainian forces which adds a problem for Russia as their command and control is so inflexible that they probably can't respond in time to any intelligence indicating where Ukrainian formations are. So either they target a point and then attack (and as I mentioned below thats got some issues with their own kit and training) or they hit something immobile like a train station or supply hub.

That would bring international condemnation as civilians would absolutely be caught up in the blast, not that Putin would necessarily care.

If he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.

[Zhivago]

If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.

Also worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.

There's no military- strategic advantage to Putin for using a tactical nuke. And even if there were, Russia wouldn't be able to actually capitalise on it (as you said). A strategic nuke will probably see the Black Sea Fleet destroyed, and ICBMs hitting any large concentration of Russian ammunition or manpower, possibly including in Russia itself; with Ukraine getting more HIMARS, and more equipment of every sort; and a very strong chance of NATO militaries allowing their soldiers to go off to Ukraine if they so wish.
The only advantage I can see for Putin using a tactical Nuke is that it gives him an optics off-ramp of being defeated by NATO rather than being defeated by Ukraine.

Do anything other that a tactical nuke, and he's inviting a nuclear response and the loss of any remaining allies (probably including N Korea).

This is what I was saying earlier. It seems that this is likely to be the least humiliating way out for Putin. I still have trouble with any normal rationale for predicting Putin's actions though, as his cost-benefit calculation is so warped by his paranoia.

Putin is a gambler, and he's been on record saying that if you don't gamble you never drink champagne. And his strategy of constantly upping the ante until the opponent folds as worked well for him in the last 20 years. He's never really had to learn to cut his losses. And he's in too deep now. Very hard to get into his mind. Let alone other stuff like possible oncological illness etc.

[Zhivago]

If he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.

I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.

[Sandydragon]

If he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.

I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.

No doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.

[Zhivago]

If he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.

I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.

No doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.

They're already spinning this yarn and more - rewriting history in fact.

[Sandydragon]

I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.

No doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.

They're already spinning this yarn and more - rewriting history in fact.

Repeat a lie often enough......

That is utterly incredible, but then dictators need to have something to mobilise the masses.

One can only hope that other countries are a bit more sensible in their response to this, especially if it goes nuclear.

[Mellsblue]

Another map:

[Which Tyler]

[Zhivago]

Just to post a different angle from the usual... an insight to how Russia is being perceived in China
https://www.whatsonweibo.com/why-russia ... ial-media/

[Which Tyler]

Just now - and things like this have a 24 hour delay on them, which Ukrainians are generally very keen on supporting

[Sandydragon]

Just now - and things like this have a 24 hour delay on them, which Ukrainians are generally very keen on supporting

Shit or bust time for the Russians. Thats a rapid advance and they either stop it in the next day or so or they will have to leg it. Not much sign of this advance slowing down and I'm guessing theres a lot of nervous Russian soldiers looking over their shoulders at the moment.

[Which Tyler]

Looks like the 2nd line of defence for the Russians is Dudchany - which is the next town/village, and is split over an estuary, with the 3rd line at Mylove (another estuary town.

Crucially, Dudchany is also the site of the next road heading NW heading towards Davydiv Brid; sadly, South of the estuary. There's another, bigger road NW at Mylove - between the town and the estuary.

Around Davydiv Brid, the crucial village looks like being Bruskynske, on the main road between DB and Kherson. Most sources have it in Russian hands, several have it "contested" and a few even have it in Ukrainian hands.

Kherson N].jpg

[Sandydragon]

The Times is running a story that a train containing nuclear warheads is headed to the Ukrainian border. This may or may not be accurate but it’s very concerning. There’s some speculation that Putin will test a nuke near the border, just to make a point. There have been weapons deployed to the border previously so this could just be more bullshit.

Hopefully some of the countries that have vaguely friendly relations with Russia can intervene and suggest this has gone far enough. I live in eternal hope.

[Zhivago]

From a Russian source.


Also seems like they retreated from Dudchany.

And reports about evacuation of Svatove... but maybe only civilians(?!)

[Zhivago]

Also seems like they retreated from Dudchany.

Seems legit

[Zhivago]

Back to Svatove direction, this video was pretty good I thought


and...


Cutting the P-66 will complicate things for the Russians

[Zhivago]

[Mellsblue]

For when you start your Christmas shopping:

https://shop.brave.ua/

[Zhivago]

[Which Tyler]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-october-2-3


Same thing as a tweet thread, for those who prefer that



ETA:
Looks like this (and a few others) video confirm that the Kupyansk and Borova advances have met since AP posted that round-up (or confirmation came after his round-up):

Would pretty much confirm that Russia have withdrawn to the East side of the Zherebets - probably the rally point at Svatove


In Kherson, the Anrkhangelsk troops have expanded their area of control bother Eastwards and Southwards - again indicating that the Russian withdrawal to Mylove (or possibly yet Dudchany - I can't see why Russia would abandon that one - at least, not yet) is real, not misinformation.

[Zhivago]

They apparently liberated Davydiv Brid

[Which Tyler]

I was just coming to post that - makes the retreat along the Dnipro all the way to Mylove (or even Beryslav) most realistic then - no particular need to waste lives in Dudchany if it's a supply route to... nowhere.

You'd think it's still be a good choke point to kill Ukrainians, but whatever

[Zhivago]

Seems like the north Kherson front collapsed. I wonder where they'll end up.

[Zhivago]

I was just coming to post that - makes the retreat along the Dnipro all the way to Mylove most realistic then - no particular need to waste lives in Dudchany if it's a supply route to... nowhere.

You'd think it's still be a good choke point to kill Ukrainians, but whatever

I think supply and manpower are scarce