Snap General Election called

[Sandydragon]

Hislop nailed it.

[Which Tyler]

Hislop nailed it.

3 weeks ago

A touch longer than 3 weeks ago, this happened

[Son of Mathonwy]

33% lead for Labour. Will Truss even survive till the Tory conference?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

[Which Tyler]

Further highlights of Liz's tour of local radio stations:



As for Truss - I see the polls are bad enough that she's had to don the high-vis jacket and hard hat, to bring some supporters back onside, but not bad enough to wear a lab coat and get in the way of hospital treatments; and certainly not bad enough yet to get a photo-op with Zelenskyi

[Puja]

33% lead for Labour. Will Truss even survive till the Tory conference?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Probably an outlier (compared to one just a day before by Kantar Public that somehow came to the conclusion that it's only a 4% lead! ), but other polls are turning up 17-21% leads, which are devastating enough. Even the worst of those is giving Labour a 40 seat majority (and Lib Dem 25, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3 and SNP 49, all of whom have MPs who could be negotiated with in case of difficult voting). Conservatives would be an utterly isolated 207.

And that is the best of the rational polls for the Tories right now.

As for Truss - I see the polls are bad enough that she's had to don the high-vis jacket and hard hat, to bring some supporters back onside, but not bad enough to wear a lab coat and get in the way of hospital treatments; and certainly not bad enough yet to get a photo-op with Zelenskyi

I love the idea of a scale of damage limitation public appearance. Where does hiding in a fridge come?

Puja

[Which Tyler]

I love the idea of a scale of damage limitation public appearance. Where does hiding in a fridge come?

Spur of the moment panic

[Son of Mathonwy]

33% lead for Labour. Will Truss even survive till the Tory conference?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Probably an outlier (compared to one just a day before by Kantar Public that somehow came to the conclusion that it's only a 4% lead! ), but other polls are turning up 17-21% leads, which are devastating enough. Even the worst of those is giving Labour a 40 seat majority (and Lib Dem 25, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3 and SNP 49, all of whom have MPs who could be negotiated with in case of difficult voting). Conservatives would be an utterly isolated 207.

And that is the best of the rational polls for the Tories right now.

As for Truss - I see the polls are bad enough that she's had to don the high-vis jacket and hard hat, to bring some supporters back onside, but not bad enough to wear a lab coat and get in the way of hospital treatments; and certainly not bad enough yet to get a photo-op with Zelenskyi

I love the idea of a scale of damage limitation public appearance. Where does hiding in a fridge come?

Puja

Another poll (hilariously for GB News) gives a 30% lead for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

[Son of Mathonwy]

She's going to destroy the Tories but it's going to be a tough 2 years with long-lasting damage.

She's a quick worker.

[Puja]

I noticed on Twitter that Eddie Izzard was trending. Clicked out of interest and it turns out she was photographed using a women's toilet and there are (entirely unsourced) rumours that Labour are planning to put her onto an all-female shortlist to be a candidate for MP. So Sharon from Clacton and Trisha from Barking are up in arms with the usual bullshit at the slightest provocation (and ignoring the fact that someone's taking surreptitious pictures of a person in a bathroom and claiming *they're* the one being creepy and invasive).

We're not going to discuss anything to do with that situation because of board rules. But isn't it a crazy random happenstance that culture war bullshit has organically sprung up, just at the exact time when the Conservatives are fucking the economy and would really like a wedge issue for the opposition to take attention rather than their fuck-ups? What lucky timing! A fortunate coincidence. Serendipity in action. The sheer randomness of the universe. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

33% lead for Labour. Will Truss even survive till the Tory conference?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Probably an outlier (compared to one just a day before by Kantar Public that somehow came to the conclusion that it's only a 4% lead! ), but other polls are turning up 17-21% leads, which are devastating enough. Even the worst of those is giving Labour a 40 seat majority (and Lib Dem 25, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3 and SNP 49, all of whom have MPs who could be negotiated with in case of difficult voting). Conservatives would be an utterly isolated 207.

And that is the best of the rational polls for the Tories right now.

As for Truss - I see the polls are bad enough that she's had to don the high-vis jacket and hard hat, to bring some supporters back onside, but not bad enough to wear a lab coat and get in the way of hospital treatments; and certainly not bad enough yet to get a photo-op with Zelenskyi

I love the idea of a scale of damage limitation public appearance. Where does hiding in a fridge come?

Puja

Another poll (hilariously for GB News) gives a 30% lead for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Another poll with a 32% lead for Labour. It's no freak poll result - it's what people think.

No knowing how long the ~30% lead will last but it's real.

Truss is toxic to the one thing the Tories really care about - the polls.

[Puja]

Probably an outlier (compared to one just a day before by Kantar Public that somehow came to the conclusion that it's only a 4% lead! ), but other polls are turning up 17-21% leads, which are devastating enough. Even the worst of those is giving Labour a 40 seat majority (and Lib Dem 25, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3 and SNP 49, all of whom have MPs who could be negotiated with in case of difficult voting). Conservatives would be an utterly isolated 207.

And that is the best of the rational polls for the Tories right now.



I love the idea of a scale of damage limitation public appearance. Where does hiding in a fridge come?

Puja

Another poll (hilariously for GB News) gives a 30% lead for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Another poll with a 32% lead for Labour. It's no freak poll result - it's what people think.

No knowing how long the ~30% lead will last but it's real.

Truss is toxic to the one thing the Tories really care about - the polls.

I stand absolutely corrected. Those figures would take the Tories to under 100 seats, which would be hilarious.

I don't really know what the upshot of it is though. Truss appears determined that history will prove her right and so will neither change course nor step down. The Conservatives can't call a vote on her for another 10 months and, while they could oust her with mass resignations, they surely can't possibly be thinking they can stage another coup in the space of a year, especially given the margin she won the leadership contest by. She's packed the cabinet with her loyalists anyway, so it wouldn't happen, plus there's always the risk of a Boris comeback tour to take into account. They also won't follow a vote of no confidence, as it'd be guaranteed electoral wipeout to have an election now.

On the other hand... do they leave her there? If interest rates go up to 6%, services are cut to ribbons, and Truss's oft-repeated line of "Energy bills won't go over £2,500" is discovered to be complete bollocks, it could be a very hard winter and these polls could look like halcyon days for the Conservatives.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Another poll (hilariously for GB News) gives a 30% lead for Labour.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

Another poll with a 32% lead for Labour. It's no freak poll result - it's what people think.

No knowing how long the ~30% lead will last but it's real.

Truss is toxic to the one thing the Tories really care about - the polls.

I stand absolutely corrected. Those figures would take the Tories to under 100 seats, which would be hilarious.

I don't really know what the upshot of it is though. Truss appears determined that history will prove her right and so will neither change course nor step down. The Conservatives can't call a vote on her for another 10 months and, while they could oust her with mass resignations, they surely can't possibly be thinking they can stage another coup in the space of a year, especially given the margin she won the leadership contest by. She's packed the cabinet with her loyalists anyway, so it wouldn't happen, plus there's always the risk of a Boris comeback tour to take into account. They also won't follow a vote of no confidence, as it'd be guaranteed electoral wipeout to have an election now.

On the other hand... do they leave her there? If interest rates go up to 6%, services are cut to ribbons, and Truss's oft-repeated line of "Energy bills won't go over £2,500" is discovered to be complete bollocks, it could be a very hard winter and these polls could look like halcyon days for the Conservatives.

Puja

Agreed her cabinet and ministers are probably too loyal or new in their jobs to be willing to resign. But if enough backbenchers want her gone they just vote down anything she wants to put through Parliament. She could threaten a general election (which even Boris wasn't willing to do) or be a total lame duck or resign.

However, if she steps down, there will be another leadership contest. Sunak, Johnson and Mordaunt would all fancy it*, and probably several others. So who knows what would emerge from that process? Wouldn't bet against Boris again . . . but they could get lucky and get Sunak (lucky is relative here - he would still be very bad news for the country IMO). I guess the sensible Tories would hope to get Sunak and Mordaunt into the last 2, so there wouldn't be a totally catastrophic end result.

The alternative for the Tories is to allow this crazy person to utterly destroy any shred of good reputation they have left and build a long-term enmity in the country against them. Do they have a long term view for their party (and indeed any responsibility for the state of their country) or would they sacrifice all that for a couple more years in the job?


* having said that, none of those three would want to lead a rebellion - even if it would be a more effective rebellion with them running it. They'd all want to sit back and watch Truss destroy herself so they could pick up the pieces with their hands clean. (Notwithstanding Mordaunt is being slightly tainted by being in Truss's cabinet).

[Sandydragon]

There is a chance that the 1922 Committee will change the rules and allow an early vote of no confidence with no membership ballot. But I think it would need a huge number of MPs threatening to vote against the government or even cross the floor for that to happen.

[Son of Mathonwy]

When you drill down to the dregs of this Tory party, if you scrape the barrel deeply enough, after a rich steam of crazy you get to pure evil:

Simon Clarke tells us to prepare for even greater levels of austerity.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trus ... -cbjkw5b8n

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... party.html

[Sandydragon]

When you drill down to the dregs of this Tory party, if you scrape the barrel deeply enough, after a rich steam of crazy you get to pure evil:

Simon Clarke tells us to prepare for even greater levels of austerity.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trus ... -cbjkw5b8n

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... party.html

There is precious little left to cut unless they stop delivering key services. Most government departments have been stripped back. The ongoing war on the civil service by this government shows no sign of relenting.

[Son of Mathonwy]

When you drill down to the dregs of this Tory party, if you scrape the barrel deeply enough, after a rich steam of crazy you get to pure evil:

Simon Clarke tells us to prepare for even greater levels of austerity.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trus ... -cbjkw5b8n

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... party.html

There is precious little left to cut unless they stop delivering key services. Most government departments have been stripped back. The ongoing war on the civil service by this government shows no sign of relenting.

Exactly. After twelve years of austerity there are no efficiency savings, only cuts to services (which must be pretty essential if they've survived the aforementioned twelve years of cuts). Need benefits to make ends meet after your gig economy job? Tough shit peasant, should have got a high skill, high wage job.

[Sandydragon]

If they cut eduction then how is growth going to come about without skills?

If they cut defence in the current climate then they are truely mad. More investment needed there not less.

I can’t see them cutting policing or border force.

NHS is a massive hot potato but who knows.

Slowing down benefit increases would seem an obvious target.

Smashing anything environmental would also be a possibility.

But I don’t see how he is going to balance the books without stopping something major.

[Son of Mathonwy]

If they cut eduction then how is growth going to come about without skills?

If they cut defence in the current climate then they are truely mad. More investment needed there not less.

I can’t see them cutting policing or border force.

NHS is a massive hot potato but who knows.

Slowing down benefit increases would seem an obvious target.

Smashing anything environmental would also be a possibility.

But I don’t see how he is going to balance the books without stopping something major.

Benefits increases well below inflation. They already said they're looking at it, so this will presumably happen. Deeply unethical but that's Britannia Unchained for ya.

Similar for pensions seems unlikely but this lot are crazy so who knows??

Are there some chunks of the NHS they can sell off? That would be a good fit for their ideology, but Osbourne probably beat them to the juicy stuff.

Cuts to justice and prisons? Cuts to the courts would make the whole thing seize up. Prisons - can they be packed in even tighter? Further cuts here would be sick, but Truss's lot will have no empathy for the harm caused.

[Which Tyler]

"Let them eat cake"


"Peasants don't have rights"

[Sandydragon]

Bonfire of business regulations. Well they won’t die wondering.

[morepork]

"not subject to business regulation". What the fuck does that mean? Termination without notice? Zero hour contracts? No health and safety? You are allowed to shoot employees if they ask for holiday pay? Just astounding.

[Which Tyler]

<500 as well, so that's about 85% of the labor force.


(NB, number plucked from my arse - I know it's the overwhelming majority, but actually how many - suspect I've lowballed it though)

[Which Tyler]

[Sandydragon]

Loving how this is all Gove’s fault. I think we can assume that enough Tory MPs made it clear that they would vote with Labour to defeat this disgraceful budget and Truss has finally seen sense, or more likely smelt defeat.

But it’s worth remembering that the 45p tax rate was but one issue and how much the axe will swing on budgets across government is another matter.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Loving how this is all Gove’s fault. I think we can assume that enough Tory MPs made it clear that they would vote with Labour to defeat this disgraceful budget and Truss has finally seen sense, or more likely smelt defeat.

But it’s worth remembering that the 45p tax rate was but one issue and how much the axe will swing on budgets across government is another matter.

This is the thing. Well done Truss U-turning on this one by that still leaves £43BN out of £45BN of tax cuts to fund.

And we know this is only being dropped because it won't get through Parliament. They'll revive it the instant they think it will pass.