If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Zhivago]

And about the whole gas discussion. There is a map here that shows just how divided Russia's pipelines are. Their Western Siberia gas fields/pipelines that supply gas to Europe are completely disconnected from the Eastern Siberia gas pipelines that supply China etc.

If Russia does not sell its gas to Europe it cannot sell it (most of it anyway) anywhere else. It has severe capacity restraints. They plan to connect up these pipelines with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from 2024 onwards, but even then it will not give enough capacity to replace the European supply. In the meantime, what will they do? If they don't sell to Europe, they can only burn the gas at the field, or close the field down. It will be very costly for them.

[Zhivago]

Also to understand how Russia functions politically from a historical perspective, this summary of its expansion was enlightening.
https://kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how ... so-big?s=w

[Zhivago]

Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.

JFC Zhiv. It's not a sporting event where we're just cheering on our team - those are real actual people, general soldiers who probably don't have the first clue about the greater situation and who aren't the decision-makers, and you're excitedly sharing a video of them dying. What the fuck.

Puja

I admit I shouldn't have posted the video, it was crass.

I would like to discuss this point that you're trying to make though. It sounds like you have the opinion that only the Russian leadership bear responsibility for this war, and Russian soldiers and citizenry are completely in the dark about the whole situation and do not understand what is going on. This is in my opinion very far from reality.

There is plenty of evidence that they know full well the situation they are in (excepting only perhaps that some of the citizenry don't understand that Russia is losing). It stands to reason that if they didn't understand the situation (and in particular that Russia is losing), they wouldn't be fleeing from Kherson over these pontoons.

When Kherson is liberated it will be revealed that the atrocities exceeded those in Bucha. My sympathy does not extend to such brutes.

[Sandydragon]

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.

JFC Zhiv. It's not a sporting event where we're just cheering on our team - those are real actual people, general soldiers who probably don't have the first clue about the greater situation and who aren't the decision-makers, and you're excitedly sharing a video of them dying. What the fuck.

Puja

I admit I shouldn't have posted the video, it was crass.

I would like to discuss this point that you're trying to make though. It sounds like you have the opinion that only the Russian leadership bear responsibility for this war, and Russian soldiers and citizenry are completely in the dark about the whole situation and do not understand what is going on. This is in my opinion very far from reality.

There is plenty of evidence that they know full well the situation they are in (excepting only perhaps that some of the citizenry don't understand that Russia is losing). It stands to reason that if they didn't understand the situation (and in particular that Russia is losing), they wouldn't be fleeing from Kherson over these pontoons.

When Kherson is liberated it will be revealed that the atrocities exceeded those in Bucha. My sympathy does not extend to such brutes.

That's a fair point. As you say the atrocities suggest that plenty of Russian soldiers are quite prepared to see Ukrainians as undeserving of any respect. Equally, Putinism isnt just him. A bit like Nazism wasn't just confined to the top level of German government, or Communism in Russia for that matter, the support for Russia's nationalist aims is more widespread, which is why I don't think Putin suddenly dying (whilst in itself something to celebrate) wouldn't stop this war or future aggression.

Yes the Russian population are being lied to and many don't get to see another news source.But the grievance tale that Putin is relying on is too widespread.

[Zhivago]

Great map

[Which Tyler]

Beat me to it on that one.
Generally this map has generally been pretty impressive in speed of updates, and not buying into some of the... overexcitement:
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/ ... nBT8ffpeGH

[Zhivago]

Some claims that what Ukraine thought was a Lieutenant Colonel that they took as POW yesterday, is actually a Lieutenant General


If it turns out to be the case, that is one hell of a prize.

[Zhivago]

Interesting article by Zaluzhnyi (Ukraine's commander-in-chief)
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35 ... ctive.html

[Zhivago]

Latest - they reached the river

[Which Tyler]

Seeing Zhiv's 2 maps...

Ukrainian General Staff: Start the offensive
Ukrainian Army: OK
Ukrainian General Staff: Also, make it look like a penis
Ukrainian Army: Will do
Ukrainian General Staff: Good work, now engorge it
Ukrainian Army: Done

(sadly, not my original work)

[Zhivago]

Getting closer to the primary objective.

[Zhivago]

Looks like they're going straight for Izium. I think Russians have no way out of this couldron, assuming Ukraine can keep it encircled.

[Zhivago]

Russian telegram reports this anecdote which might or might not be true. But it is a good read.

Yesterday, Putin held this meeting via video link, which was attended by Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, Director of the FSB Alexander Bortnikov, head of one of the FSB services, Deputy Director of the FSB, two representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin. At the beginning of the meeting, Putin read out the received report and invited the meeting participants to express their thoughts on the prospects for the development of events in the light of the information presented, taking into account that it is correct.

First, Putin gave the floor to Nikolai Patrushev, but he offered to give the floor to representatives of the General Staff so that they would express their positions based on the situation at the front that has developed at a given time. Putin gave the floor to a representative of the leadership of the General Staff, who literally in a few words expressed confidence that the information contained in the report corresponds to the plans of the United States, after which he said that our troops have no more offensive capabilities, and soon there will be no more opportunities for defense, and further summarized phrase: "You lost Vladimir Vladimirovich!" After that, he fell silent, and because of the shock of the participants in the meeting, who were sincerely amazed at the audacity of the general, there was a long pause, which was interrupted by Patrushev, asking the question "How do you talk to the supreme commander?"

Putin asked if this was the position of the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense and immediately received assurances that this was by no means the position of the leadership of either the General Staff or the Ministry of Defense, but simply a failure of a person who did not want to take responsibility for the failed actions at the front. After the meeting lasted no more than half an hour, during which the president was gloomy silent, and the rest squeezed out words of restrained optimism.

When Patrushev moved on to discussing the situation in the regions bordering Ukraine, reporting problems in the Belgorod region, where, according to Patrushev, as a result of sabotage, part of the city was left without electricity and water supply, Putin interrupted the report saying "Fuck ... th you tell me about Belgorod Now you are telling? There are practically only Ukrainians living there. They wet their own people there. We have problems without it above our heads. Enough." Then he concluded the meeting.

[Which Tyler]

[Zhivago]

Western half of Kupyansk was captured, Russians retreated behind the Oskil river.


Some reports coming in that the Izium pocket has surrendered. We will see. Meanwhile Ukraine has launched another pincer by Lyman. Russian telegram channels are starting to talk about a major defeat that has been inflicted on their troops. What comes next we can only wait and see, but the writing looks on the wall at this point.

Now NATO needs to make very loud announcements of the inadmissability of nuclear weapons etc. This will leave only 2 options left for Vova. Either face reality or drag this painful defeat out even longer.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Western half of Kupyansk was captured, Russians retreated behind the Oskil river.


Some reports coming in that the Izium pocket has surrendered. We will see. Meanwhile Ukraine has launched another pincer by Lyman. Russian telegram channels are starting to talk about a major defeat that has been inflicted on their troops. What comes next we can only wait and see, but the writing looks on the wall at this point.

Now NATO needs to make very loud announcements of the inadmissability of nuclear weapons etc. This will leave only 2 options left for Vova. Either face reality or drag this painful defeat out even longer.

I don't think NATO should bring up the subject of nuclear weapons unless Russia does. Why give it any credibility as a military option? If Russia does bring it up NATO should slam it, of course.

[Which Tyler]

[Puja]

Western half of Kupyansk was captured, Russians retreated behind the Oskil river.


Some reports coming in that the Izium pocket has surrendered. We will see. Meanwhile Ukraine has launched another pincer by Lyman. Russian telegram channels are starting to talk about a major defeat that has been inflicted on their troops. What comes next we can only wait and see, but the writing looks on the wall at this point.

Now NATO needs to make very loud announcements of the inadmissability of nuclear weapons etc. This will leave only 2 options left for Vova. Either face reality or drag this painful defeat out even longer.

I don't think NATO should bring up the subject of nuclear weapons unless Russia does. Why give it any credibility as a military option? If Russia does bring it up NATO should slam it, of course.

I don't think it needs to be loud, but I think that NATO need to make it clear in private communications with Putin that any use of nuclear weapons will be seen as a declaration of war, as I can easily see Putin authorising their use without any prior warning in his current situation.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Allegedly, Russian forces as far East as Svatove (about 60km SE of Kupyansk; about half way between Kupyansk and Severodenesk) have abandoned the town and run away. Dunno if that due to troops, partisans, panic, or an attempt to convince the Ukrainians to over-extend themselves and allow Russia to pinch off the spearhead.

For now, I'm treating this one with a healthy dose of salt.



Oh yes, also being reported (but not confirmed) that Ukraine has successfully pushed the Russians back in that little patch North of Kharkiv, more or less up to the Siverkyi Donesk River, and right back to the national border.
Whilst at the far SW end of the line, Ukraine (reported bu unconfirmed) have captured Oleksandrivka & Stanislav, turning that end of the flank up from the coast up to the river Dniper

[Which Tyler]

[Son of Mathonwy]

Western half of Kupyansk was captured, Russians retreated behind the Oskil river.


Some reports coming in that the Izium pocket has surrendered. We will see. Meanwhile Ukraine has launched another pincer by Lyman. Russian telegram channels are starting to talk about a major defeat that has been inflicted on their troops. What comes next we can only wait and see, but the writing looks on the wall at this point.

Now NATO needs to make very loud announcements of the inadmissability of nuclear weapons etc. This will leave only 2 options left for Vova. Either face reality or drag this painful defeat out even longer.

I don't think NATO should bring up the subject of nuclear weapons unless Russia does. Why give it any credibility as a military option? If Russia does bring it up NATO should slam it, of course.

I don't think it needs to be loud, but I think that NATO need to make it clear in private communications with Putin that any use of nuclear weapons will be seen as a declaration of war, as I can easily see Putin authorising their use without any prior warning in his current situation.

Puja

Scary stuff. The question is, what do the West/NATO/USA/UK threaten as their immediate response to any use of nuclear weapons?

Direct use of our nukes on Russian held Ukrainian territory would be escalatory (although entirely justified), also possibly against the wishes of Ukraine (who wants to turn their own country into a radioactive wasteland?) and potentially a war crime due to its impact on civilians.

Direct use of our nukes on Russia would be end of the world escalation.

Upgrading our military support seems too weak.

Not sure what else we can do sanctions-wise.

Declaration of a total no-fly zone for Russian aircraft over Ukraine would be an option, but perhaps a little too weak.

Perhaps threaten to directly support the Ukrainians with our own troops? This would bring with it a total no-fly zone for Russian aircraft in Ukraine. This is the best option, I think, assuming 1) the Ukrainians want this, 2) this is politically feasible within each NATO country.

[Which Tyler]

The Donetsk People's Republic has removed its government to a car getting the fuck out of dodge




The difference between that video and Zelensky's 'we are here' speech at the start of the war is rather stark


Mind you, the difference in the maps between Tuesday morning and this morning (so is out of date by dozens of miles already - especially around Izium, and North of Kharkiv)

[Puja]

[Son of Mathonwy]

News, Goebbels-style.

[Puja]