If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post Reply
User avatar
Son of Mathonwy
Posts: 5081
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:50 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

cashead wrote:A fairly big chunk of the Russian air force is a smouldering wreck in Crimea, apparently including the entity of the Black Sea Fleet's marine aviation.

Also, cope coming out of Russia is the same shit that they trotted out when the Moskva became part of the sea. "Nuh-uh, the planes blew up of their own volition!"
Nothing to see here, just launching planes into the air.
(In more pieces than usual.)
User avatar
Galfon
Posts: 4296
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:07 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Galfon »

Looks like Sep could be lively...
Apart from less extreme weather, we have Ukr bouyed by progress with new western weapons, hoping to retake the region of Kherson by then.
Meanwhile in Russ, 11 Sep is polling day in their rolling regional elections, so presumably a military victory would be helpful for Putin, followed by his birthday 7 Oct, when his great achievements are usually celebrated. He'll be looking for a big victory somewhere. (real or otherwise).
Meantime Russia is about to form a new ground forces unit, of up to 15-20,000 troops. (MoD), not sure where from or timescale.
Sh!t or bust #23. :|
User avatar
Which Tyler
Posts: 9250
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:43 pm
Location: Tewkesbury
Contact:

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Which Tyler »

Suspicion that Russia removing all their command centres from Kherson might be telling
User avatar
Puja
Posts: 17734
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:16 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Puja »

Looks like Ukraine are going guerilla in Crimea - explosions at train station and military base following the aerodrome explosion, with a major figure in their defence department saying that "further 'accidents' may happen" and that the road bridge linking Crimea to mainland Russia is a legitimate target. In response, 38k cars left via that bridge today (a new record), with the same expected tomorrow as Russian holidaymakers and immigrants GTFO.

Excellent tactics by Ukraine to my mind - partisan and guerilla warfare is their advantage in the occupied territories (and I hope they've fucked up the holidays of rich Russian pricks enjoying the spoils of their conquests) and it's a lot easier to wear Russian soldiers down by continually denying them supplies than it is to assault them directly.

Puja
Backist Monk
User avatar
Galfon
Posts: 4296
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:07 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Galfon »

Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken over the phone and discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a statement following the call, the Kremlin said that Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military" of the power plant "creates the danger of a sizeable disaster".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62603741

Quite a few worries for the wider region from this - though not unexpected. :|
( irrespective of any untruths or lies that may or may not be in the process of being paddled, peddled, or piddled )
User avatar
Son of Mathonwy
Posts: 5081
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:50 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Son of Mathonwy »

Galfon wrote:
Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken over the phone and discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a statement following the call, the Kremlin said that Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military" of the power plant "creates the danger of a sizeable disaster".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62603741

Quite a few worries for the wider region from this - though not unexpected. :|
( irrespective of any untruths or lies that may or may not be in the process of being paddled, peddled, or piddled )
Pretty hard to believe that the Ukrainians would shell their own nuclear power station.
paddy no 11
Posts: 1972
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:34 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by paddy no 11 »

The Dugin thing.................who knows..............can we call this the end of the beginning as possible some new actors have entered? Or putin has gone increasingly deranged
User avatar
Mellsblue
Posts: 14573
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:58 am

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Mellsblue »

paddy no 11
Posts: 1972
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:34 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by paddy no 11 »

That's good news at least, need to grind out the winter next, those numbers will drop

The German numbers would be interesting between now and December say
User avatar
Which Tyler
Posts: 9250
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:43 pm
Location: Tewkesbury
Contact:

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Which Tyler »

Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.
paddy no 11
Posts: 1972
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 10:34 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by paddy no 11 »

Hon ta fuck Ukraine, drive these cu*ts out, and hopefully putin gets taken from within
User avatar
Zhivago
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:36 am
Location: Amsterdam

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Which Tyler wrote:Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.
It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

Banquo
Posts: 19200
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:52 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Banquo »

Zhivago wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.
It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.
what ales ye?
User avatar
Which Tyler
Posts: 9250
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:43 pm
Location: Tewkesbury
Contact:

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Which Tyler »

Zhivago wrote:It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.
Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.
User avatar
Zhivago
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:36 am
Location: Amsterdam

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Banquo wrote:
Zhivago wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.
It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.
what ales ye?
This anxiety, which isn't relieved by the pils I'm taking.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

User avatar
Puja
Posts: 17734
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:16 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Puja »

Which Tyler wrote:
Zhivago wrote:It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.
Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.
Ukraine are playing an absolute blinder in my eyes. They can't afford any meatgrinder battles in cities, they can't do what the Russians did and flatten half the city with artillery to clear the way, and they can't entice the Russians out. So instead, they're preying on the poor morale of the Russian army, threatening attacks so the occupiers are never comfortable and then never coming, destroying supply lines and materiel, forcing them to move from one front to another, making public pronouncements that if they run, they will not be fired upon. The pip was the reveal today that they'd been making HIMARS models out of wood and leaving them in tempting locations to get the Russians to waste cruise missiles, meaning that the recent string of "We destroyed foreign weapons" propaganda that Russia's been putting out is undercut (and also making them hesitant over launching cruise missiles in future for fear of wasting it on another replica, giving them more freedom for their actual HIMARS).

The aim has to be that, at some point, the average Russian squaddie decides he's more fucked off with the situation than he is scared of Putin and the entire army revolts.

Puja
Backist Monk
User avatar
Sandydragon
Posts: 10518
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:13 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Sandydragon »

Puja wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:
Zhivago wrote:It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.
Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.
Ukraine are playing an absolute blinder in my eyes. They can't afford any meatgrinder battles in cities, they can't do what the Russians did and flatten half the city with artillery to clear the way, and they can't entice the Russians out. So instead, they're preying on the poor morale of the Russian army, threatening attacks so the occupiers are never comfortable and then never coming, destroying supply lines and materiel, forcing them to move from one front to another, making public pronouncements that if they run, they will not be fired upon. The pip was the reveal today that they'd been making HIMARS models out of wood and leaving them in tempting locations to get the Russians to waste cruise missiles, meaning that the recent string of "We destroyed foreign weapons" propaganda that Russia's been putting out is undercut (and also making them hesitant over launching cruise missiles in future for fear of wasting it on another replica, giving them more freedom for their actual HIMARS).

The aim has to be that, at some point, the average Russian squaddie decides he's more fucked off with the situation than he is scared of Putin and the entire army revolts.

Puja
On the whole, the Ukrainians have been much better led and are making good use of tactical advantages nd strategic space to wear down and knock back the Russians. Russia is countering through huge firepower, which is now being countered by better wester weaponry.

Its clear that many Russian soldiers don't want to be there, but there are still a lot of them and digging them out of the likes of Kherson will be difficult. The attacker normally takes greater casualties and the ukrainians will have a higher reluctance to use bombardment than the Russians did. Hitting supply lines and cutting off Russian formations is the smart move and hopefully poor Russian morale will do the job. If the Ukrainians have to go into cities like Kherson to winkle out hardliners then expect it to get bloody.
User avatar
Galfon
Posts: 4296
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:07 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Galfon »

User avatar
Sandydragon
Posts: 10518
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:13 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Sandydragon »

Galfon wrote:As one window opens.. :|

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584
How clumsy of him
User avatar
Zhivago
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:36 am
Location: Amsterdam

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

This is juicy. Even if it comes to nothing, I'm sure the blood is boiling in Moscow.
Image

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

User avatar
morepork
Posts: 7530
Joined: Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:50 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by morepork »

Zhivago wrote:Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.
User avatar
Puja
Posts: 17734
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:16 pm

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Puja »

morepork wrote:
Zhivago wrote:Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.
JFC Zhiv. It's not a sporting event where we're just cheering on our team - those are real actual people, general soldiers who probably don't have the first clue about the greater situation and who aren't the decision-makers, and you're excitedly sharing a video of them dying. What the fuck.

Puja
Backist Monk
User avatar
Zhivago
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:36 am
Location: Amsterdam

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

Sorry for posting the video, in hindsight, it was of course too graphic to post here. I am very emotionally invested in this war due to personal reasons - certainly not treating it like bloodsport. That clouded my judgement.

I promise I won't post anything containing graphic scenes from now on. I'll stick to more strategic discussion.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

User avatar
Zhivago
Posts: 1947
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:36 am
Location: Amsterdam

Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

Post by Zhivago »

And on the strategic side, we have some serious developments over the last few days.

After having pulled Russia's best troops away from the east into the Kherson trap, Ukraine has begun a massive combined arms offensive in the Kherson region, aimed at destroying their Izium bridgehead. The obvious target is the logistical hub Kupiansk. Cutting off Kupiansk will completely ruin Russia's supply lines to Izium.

And Ukraine has blasted through the front lines, Russia is in total disarray. Ukraine is blitzing towards Kupiansk, bypassing (but encircling) unimport towns like Baliklaya along the way. Russians are panicking (Telegram channels are flooded with copy paste don't panic messages), and in their panicked retreat fall right into Ukrainian ambushes with lots of POWs.

General map of the offensive as of yesterday.
Image

Map of railways in the area (in Green). Kupiansk is where the circle/hub is seen.
Image
Last edited by Zhivago on Thu Sep 08, 2022 11:10 am, edited 2 times in total.

Все буде Україна!
Смерть ворогам!!

Post Reply