COVID19

[Digby]

50% might well not be that low for a vaccine

Of particular interest will be that the MRNA vaccine should prove easily the quickest to produce updated versions of in response to variants in the virus, but that is pricey and presents the problem of distribution in a cold chain. Though there's very little communication on just how long this will all be with us for and how impactful it'll be, whether it's simply not known, or whether they don't think we'll struggle to accept the vaccines might not allow a reversion to societal norms and we need short term targets I don't know

Yup

Which is why I was groaning again at Boris announcement that summer holidays would be back on the cards again. SO many imponderables, better to manage expectations rather than over promise. Again.

I don't know if he's trying to give us false hope, or suggest to the travel industry they don't need to compensate them because things will be back soon. Maybe this is the best messaging strategy they have to control public panic, constantly shifting/managing expectations, even if for myself I'd prefer to know how they see this actually playing out

[morepork]

As Hungary is likely to be pushing the Chinese and maybe Russian vaccines, I did a small amount of research.

So they're simple vaccines, not RNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna... And they have unreliable efficiency - reported 79% in some places and as low as 50% elsewhere...

It doesn't convince me, especially as we don't have access to any data, unlike the main ones.

And on the main ones, an image of the Astra Zeneca "ingredients" list has been doing the rounds on social and how terrible it includes monkey and human...

Do these people not have any common sense or concept of reality? Why the hell would a company put that in a vaccine when it's so incredibly expensive!!! And then sell it for £3 a pop, the cheapest one!

FFS, these idiots.

It’s a chimpanzee adenovirus. This is an inactivated vehicle for delivery of the same instructions encoded by the mRNA vaccines. The target antigen,encoded by the DNA delivered by the chimp adenovirus is identical to that encoded by the mRNA vaccines. Adenovirus is abundant in the human population as it is one of the causes of the common cold. We can deal with it. You are barking up the wrong tree.

[Digby]

So are you saying we want the protein vaccine or the gene one? Tbh both protein and genes seem to be of some help to our existence so both look good healthy options, probably like kale

[Stom]

As Hungary is likely to be pushing the Chinese and maybe Russian vaccines, I did a small amount of research.

So they're simple vaccines, not RNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna... And they have unreliable efficiency - reported 79% in some places and as low as 50% elsewhere...

It doesn't convince me, especially as we don't have access to any data, unlike the main ones.

And on the main ones, an image of the Astra Zeneca "ingredients" list has been doing the rounds on social and how terrible it includes monkey and human...

Do these people not have any common sense or concept of reality? Why the hell would a company put that in a vaccine when it's so incredibly expensive!!! And then sell it for £3 a pop, the cheapest one!

FFS, these idiots.

It’s a chimpanzee adenovirus. This is an inactivated vehicle for delivery of the same instructions encoded by the mRNA vaccines. The target antigen,encoded by the DNA delivered by the chimp adenovirus is identical to that encoded by the mRNA vaccines. Adenovirus is abundant in the human population as it is one of the causes of the common cold. We can deal with it. You are barking up the wrong tree.

AFAIK, the Chinese virus hasn't been authorised anywhere because it hasn't undergone stage 3 testing, yet? Is that right?

If it does get results that are more reliable and authorisation, then there's surely no problem with it.

And I know it comes from chimp adenovirus. My comment was on the fact people thought these were actual ingredients in a vaccine... like they would put the actual chimp cells and actual human foetus cells into a virus... I know something of how they're used: I did pay enough attention in science.

For Diggers, I really don't mind which, so long as it's actually approved! The 3 I mentioned were all approved. Just the Chinese one hasn't been afaik. And the Russian one, right?

[Digby]

I'm told we shouldn't listen to science, it'd be better to go with someone from a MESH background (like pretty much our entire cabinet if you want to pick some of the truly talented ones)

[morepork]

As Hungary is likely to be pushing the Chinese and maybe Russian vaccines, I did a small amount of research.

So they're simple vaccines, not RNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna... And they have unreliable efficiency - reported 79% in some places and as low as 50% elsewhere...

It doesn't convince me, especially as we don't have access to any data, unlike the main ones.

And on the main ones, an image of the Astra Zeneca "ingredients" list has been doing the rounds on social and how terrible it includes monkey and human...

Do these people not have any common sense or concept of reality? Why the hell would a company put that in a vaccine when it's so incredibly expensive!!! And then sell it for £3 a pop, the cheapest one!

FFS, these idiots.

It’s a chimpanzee adenovirus. This is an inactivated vehicle for delivery of the same instructions encoded by the mRNA vaccines. The target antigen,encoded by the DNA delivered by the chimp adenovirus is identical to that encoded by the mRNA vaccines. Adenovirus is abundant in the human population as it is one of the causes of the common cold. We can deal with it. You are barking up the wrong tree.

AFAIK, the Chinese virus hasn't been authorised anywhere because it hasn't undergone stage 3 testing, yet? Is that right?

If it does get results that are more reliable and authorisation, then there's surely no problem with it.

And I know it comes from chimp adenovirus. My comment was on the fact people thought these were actual ingredients in a vaccine... like they would put the actual chimp cells and actual human foetus cells into a virus... I know something of how they're used: I did pay enough attention in science.

For Diggers, I really don't mind which, so long as it's actually approved! The 3 I mentioned were all approved. Just the Chinese one hasn't been afaik. And the Russian one, right?

Sorry. I thought you were ranting about body parts in the vaccine. My bad

[Stom]

It’s a chimpanzee adenovirus. This is an inactivated vehicle for delivery of the same instructions encoded by the mRNA vaccines. The target antigen,encoded by the DNA delivered by the chimp adenovirus is identical to that encoded by the mRNA vaccines. Adenovirus is abundant in the human population as it is one of the causes of the common cold. We can deal with it. You are barking up the wrong tree.

AFAIK, the Chinese virus hasn't been authorised anywhere because it hasn't undergone stage 3 testing, yet? Is that right?

If it does get results that are more reliable and authorisation, then there's surely no problem with it.

And I know it comes from chimp adenovirus. My comment was on the fact people thought these were actual ingredients in a vaccine... like they would put the actual chimp cells and actual human foetus cells into a virus... I know something of how they're used: I did pay enough attention in science.

For Diggers, I really don't mind which, so long as it's actually approved! The 3 I mentioned were all approved. Just the Chinese one hasn't been afaik. And the Russian one, right?

Sorry. I thought you were ranting about body parts in the vaccine. My bad

It’s fine. I’m definitely not a vaccine skeptic, though I am wary of China and my own government (s?)

[Sandydragon]

I'm told we shouldn't listen to science, it'd be better to go with someone from a MESH background (like pretty much our entire cabinet if you want to pick some of the truly talented ones)

You mean like this one:

I think the people in this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong.

Michael Gove

Nice setting of the ground there to foster a trust in the science.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... b8db3d3a74

The UK cannot “close” its border like Australia has because the UK is an island and Australia is a continent, Grant Shapps has said.
Boris Johnson has been under pressure to explain why the government has not introduced stricter measures at the border to prevent new variants of coronavirus being imported from abroad.
...
Quizzed on Wednesday over why the government was not introducing tougher border controls, Shapps told the Commons transport committee: “The idea that the UK could completely button down its hatches and remain buttoned down for a year is mistaken.
“But also the evidence that that is the only thing that you need to do, or even the primary thing you need to do, is also pretty shaky.”
He said: “People say: ‘Why don’t we just close down and then we’ll be safe?’.
“But, of course, we wouldn’t be safe, because we are an island nation, unlike Australia or something which is an entire continent.
“That means that we need to get medicines in, we need to get food in, we need to get our raw materials in, sometimes we have to move people around, scientists and others.
...

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... b8db3d3a74

The UK cannot “close” its border like Australia has because the UK is an island and Australia is a continent, Grant Shapps has said.
Boris Johnson has been under pressure to explain why the government has not introduced stricter measures at the border to prevent new variants of coronavirus being imported from abroad.
...
Quizzed on Wednesday over why the government was not introducing tougher border controls, Shapps told the Commons transport committee: “The idea that the UK could completely button down its hatches and remain buttoned down for a year is mistaken.
“But also the evidence that that is the only thing that you need to do, or even the primary thing you need to do, is also pretty shaky.”
He said: “People say: ‘Why don’t we just close down and then we’ll be safe?’.
“But, of course, we wouldn’t be safe, because we are an island nation, unlike Australia or something which is an entire continent.
“That means that we need to get medicines in, we need to get food in, we need to get our raw materials in, sometimes we have to move people around, scientists and others.
...

Obviously Australia has no need to import or export anything.

[Sandydragon]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... b8db3d3a74

The UK cannot “close” its border like Australia has because the UK is an island and Australia is a continent, Grant Shapps has said.
Boris Johnson has been under pressure to explain why the government has not introduced stricter measures at the border to prevent new variants of coronavirus being imported from abroad.
...
Quizzed on Wednesday over why the government was not introducing tougher border controls, Shapps told the Commons transport committee: “The idea that the UK could completely button down its hatches and remain buttoned down for a year is mistaken.
“But also the evidence that that is the only thing that you need to do, or even the primary thing you need to do, is also pretty shaky.”
He said: “People say: ‘Why don’t we just close down and then we’ll be safe?’.
“But, of course, we wouldn’t be safe, because we are an island nation, unlike Australia or something which is an entire continent.
“That means that we need to get medicines in, we need to get food in, we need to get our raw materials in, sometimes we have to move people around, scientists and others.
...

Obviously Australia has no need to import or export anything.

He was trying to paint this as an absolute the other day; either the border is open to everything or nothing. In his world, closed border means no medicines or foodstuffs crossing, whereas to anyone with a braincell, you classify stuff like that as essentials and ban the non-essential travel.

[morepork]

That's right, keep spreading ever evolving coronavirus variants around the planet. Sound plan. These cunts in charge are far too removed from reality to provide effective leadership. You could model travel restriction effects on mutation, spread, and vaccine efficacy in culture cells. The virus is the KEY variable here, but they can't deal with it. Failed undergraduate biology 101.

[Digby]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ ... b8db3d3a74

Obviously Australia has no need to import or export anything.

He was trying to paint this as an absolute the other day; either the border is open to everything or nothing. In his world, closed border means no medicines or foodstuffs crossing, whereas to anyone with a braincell, you classify stuff like that as essentials and ban the non-essential travel.

It's just very weird because for all they come across as being stupid they surely can't be this stupid.

I suspect they're really saying we're not just a destination we're a hub, we don't want to give ground to another nation that might be a hub, and we don't want to pay more compensation than we have to upfront. Whereas I'd broadly think there are some gains to giving up some of our hub traffic (we might not even need another runway) and it'd be better to pay upfront than get hit with further costs down the line anyway. And I probably would restrict all but essential travel, and would have people pay to stay in quarantine without exceptions for important hedge fund managers, and if people are only using us as a hub then okay to some degree but they have to stay in the airport and not set foot onto UK soil, not land one day pop into London and then fly out the following day.

One further query, if we're not actually going to do any track and tracing leading to proper isolating why are we spending so much money on track and trace? Lord knows what the compliance rates are, other than no chance they're what HMG claims. We're basically spending on track and trace just so HMG can say they've made that spend no matter it's such an incredible waste because it's not followed through in conjunction with other policies

[Which Tyler]

These cunts in charge are far too removed from reality to provide effective leadership. You could model travel restriction effects on mutation, spread, and vaccine efficacy in culture cells. The virus is the KEY variable here, but they can't deal with it. Failed undergraduate biology 101.

[Sandydragon]

These cunts in charge are far too removed from reality to provide effective leadership. You could model travel restriction effects on mutation, spread, and vaccine efficacy in culture cells. The virus is the KEY variable here, but they can't deal with it. Failed undergraduate biology 101.

Or anyone who has read the wikipedia entry for the 'Spanish' flu.

[fivepointer]

Think it fairly clear that the quarantine idea isnt going to go anywhere. If Govt really wanted to do this properly, they would have done it by now. I suspect they'll wait a bit longer, point to falling case numbers and claim that there is no requirement for tougher measures. The freight angle is just ridiculous.
T&T has been a gigantic con. Going against PH professionals advice and farming this out an enormous cost to Harding/Serco was never going to work properly. That, and Govt still havent grasped the fact that many low paid people cannot afford to take a test, or to isolate due to financial pressure.
I saw what Harding said about variants and wondered whether we could possibly have anyone in her position this dim. Seems we can.

[Which Tyler]

Or anyone who has read the wikipedia entry for the 'Spanish' flu.

Or seasonal flu
Or... even just "virus" (it has a whole section there, linked in the "contents"

Personally, I'm just grateful that we filled SAGE with computer modellers, rather than any pesky virologists, epidemiologists or public health experts etc

It just seemed particularly appropriate after MP brings up detachment from reality, or failing undergrad biology 101

[morepork]

"We've seen the virus mutate...which was something none of us were able to predict"

This from the chair of the NHS. I think Baroness Dildo Harding should be removed from her post with immediate effect. Inexcusable.


I look forward to her insight into antibiotic resistant bacteria and the aseptic hospital environment. Every episode of willful negligence and comical inaction just increases the risk of rendering the global vaccine effort redundant before it has had a chance to take effect. This really fucking pisses me off.

[Sandydragon]

Or anyone who has read the wikipedia entry for the 'Spanish' flu.

Or seasonal flu
Or... even just "virus" (it has a whole section there, linked in the "contents"

Personally, I'm just grateful that we filled SAGE with computer modellers, rather than any pesky virologists, epidemiologists or public health experts etc

It just seemed particularly appropriate after MP brings up detachment from reality, or failing undergrad biology 101

Or even watched Outbreak.

[Which Tyler]

Or even watched Outbreak.

Is that the one Hancock has been referencing for inspiring his vaccination programme?

This from the chair of the NHS. I think Baroness Dildo Harding should be removed from her post with immediate effect.

Just for the record, sh'es not the chair of the NHS (yet), she's chair of the "National Institute for Health Protection" - which replaced Public Health England in the summer, because PHE was being run by competent people who placed science ahead of politics. She's also in charge of siphoning off money through test and trace.
Beyond that, she's a tory peer, wife of a conservative MP, and board member at the jockey club, who was largely responsible for the decision not to lock down last year until the Cheltenham Festival had taken place.

Yes, that's right, the person responsible for this country's biggest superspreader event, is also responsible for failing at test and trace, failing at healthcare management, and failing to know anything about viruses, 12 months into a viral pandemic.

[morepork]

Or even watched Outbreak.

Is that the one Hancock has been referencing for inspiring his vaccination programme?

This from the chair of the NHS. I think Baroness Dildo Harding should be removed from her post with immediate effect.

Just for the record, sh'es not the chair of the NHS (yet), she's chair of the "National Institute for Health Protection" - which replaced Public Health England in the summer, because PHE was being run by competent people who placed science ahead of politics. She's also in charge of siphoning off money through test and trace.
Beyond that, she's a tory peer, wife of a conservative MP, and board member at the jockey club, who was largely responsible for the decision not to lock down last year until the Cheltenham Festival had taken place.

Yes, that's right, the person responsible for this country's biggest superspreader event, is also responsible for failing at test and trace, failing at healthcare management, and failing to know anything about viruses, 12 months into a viral pandemic.

What the shitting fuck?! That may actually be even worse than having Jared "the Kush" Kushner in charge of logistics. I would go after that bitch and make my mission in life to make sure she never holds a position of medical/public health authority higher than under secretary for biscuits in a village dachshund breeders appreciation society.

How terminally fucking inbred is the leadership in public service over there??

[Which Tyler]

What the shitting fuck?! That may actually be even worse than having Jared "the Kush" Kushner in charge of logistics. I would go after that bitch and make my mission in life to make sure she never holds a position of medical/public health authority higher than under secretary for biscuits in a village dachshund breeders appreciation society.

would it help you to know that her prime qualification (other than sleeping with an MP) for the role was being CEO of a mobile phone company when they lost the personal data of 4 million people?

[morepork]

UK coronavirus variant on target to become the dominant variant in the US:


As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21251159v1


*NOTE: this data has yet complete peer review, but is in the process of doing so....data are real.

This is what happens when you keep borders unregulated during a viral pandemic. No fucking surprises there. We are actively promoting advantageous genetic drift and it will for sure render vaccines less effective. How all very depressingly predictable.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... iant-study

The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine offers as little as 10% protection against the Covid variant first seen in South Africa, researchers have suggested.

Scientists who conducted a small-scale trial of the vaccine’s efficacy said it showed very little protection against mild to moderate infection, though they expressed hope that – in theory – it would still offer significant protection against more serious infection.

...

[Puja]

UK coronavirus variant on target to become the dominant variant in the US:


As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21251159v1


*NOTE: this data has yet complete peer review, but is in the process of doing so....data are real.

This is what happens when you keep borders unregulated during a viral pandemic. No fucking surprises there. We are actively promoting advantageous genetic drift and it will for sure render vaccines less effective. How all very depressingly predictable.

"We want to control our own borders! No, not like that!"

I notice that Limey Disease isn't getting the same traction as Kung Flu amongst a certain red-hatted demographic. How odd - I wonder what the difference between British people and Chinese people is in those people's minds?

Puja