Trump

[Puja]

As I am with UK politics and Hungarian politics, I am again flabbergasted at the inability of the left to create a message that appeals to all.

It's simple. Tell everyone you don't believe in socialism. To the socialists, you tell them you don't believe in the concept of socialism as the world has moved on and our politics encompass something new.

To the rest, tell them you don't believe in socialism, you believe in the American dream bought forward into the 21st century. The idea that anyone can lift themselves up from the bottom all the way to the top, etc.

Jesus, it fits your policies, the only difference is you rid yourself of baggage. Hammer home the message of "American dream" "build yourself up", talk about the pastor, the church goer, the gun owners, the everyone.

Just couch everything in "AMERICA"!

That's a very good tack - I'll recommend you for the Buttigieg 2024 campaign.

In answer to your question, Biden's entire campaign was based on being inoffensive and non-threatening to soft Republican voters rather than presenting any kind of vision of his own. I suppose we can't really chide, as it does appear to have worked.

The problem with your plan is the utter disrespect for the truth that this Trump campaign has. Biden's not anywhere near anything socialist (a very left wing friend of mine quipped that the election has been Trump's campaign insisting that Biden's planning to do a load of cool shit and Biden's campaign rushing to reassure the electorate that he's never dream of such a thing), but constant brazen and blatant lying has convinced a chunk of America that Biden means outlawing police, handing half your money to AOC to spend on pansy stuff like the environment and the other half to Bernie to spend on unAmerican things like having healthcare.

Doesn't matter how much you disavow socialism if the other guy screams that you'll turn the country into Venezuela and gets enough people to believe him.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Georgia statement now on TV

Just under 9000 military ballots outstanding apparently, plus a handful of other votes.

There will definitely be a re-count.

Theres still potential for Trump to win this state. Wont be a problem when Pennsylvania declared.

It's worth noting that that figure of 8,900 military ballots is an absolute maximum - that's the number that they have sent out, not the number that are going to be returned. Turnout amongst serving military isn't always that high.

Puja

Completely understand that and the elections manager for Georgia made the point that the number received will be between zero and 9000. My point is that it’s unlikely that the proportion of democrat to Republican voters seen in absentee ballots will be repeated in the military vote. Trump may pick up more votes from that group, which may draw him back given that Biden is only 1500 ahead. Maybe. Possibly. I’ll take the EVs from Georgia as definitely for Trump once the full number of votes is known and tallied.

Pennsylvania I’m less concerned about.

[J Dory]

He makes that "I'm taking a shit while I talk to you" whiney face and and drains your life force through the TV with his soulless eyes.

You and the demon sperm doctor are now of one mind, because that's just how stuff works.

And I'd still like to know how Jared got the money to save 666, because it still makes absolutely no business sense anyone would rescue the Kushners in that situation. My assumption in advance is he sold out his country and belongs in jail, but I've been wrong in my beliefs before

Netflix Dirty Money - Slum Lord Millionaire episode had something on it. They are in debt up to their eyeballs if I recall correctly.

I just watched it again, flirted with Russia, then China (before congress stopped it), eventually Brookfield bailed them,biggest shareholder is the Qatari Sovereign Wealth fund. Of course the fact that by that time they Trump was already president is irrelevant.

[Which Tyler]

Completely understand that and the elections manager for Georgia made the point that the number received will be between zero and 9000. My point is that it’s unlikely that the proportion of democrat to Republican voters seen in absentee ballots will be repeated in the military vote. Trump may pick up more votes from that group, which may draw him back given that Biden is only 1500 ahead. Maybe. Possibly. I’ll take the EVs from Georgia as definitely for Trump once the full number of votes is known and tallied.

According to CNN (beware pro-Dem bias) earlier, most of the overseas military vote has already been returned, and counted along with everything else. The 9k is the as-yet unreturned ballots from those sent out to overseas military bases.
They also said that the overseas military vote is generally close to a 50:50 split, but is impossible to delve into deeper than that as it depends who's overseas at the time, which also makes it too unpredictable to be worth breaking down by state etc.

They had no idea how much of the 9k could be expected back.

[Mikey Brown]

[Son of Mathonwy]

Puja

I saw the whole of Trump's speech. Jesus. I know why the networks switched him off. Poisonous, slightly insane, narcissistic, self-serving, society-destabilising shit. I don't think it'll cause an uprising but it'll power some people's delusions for years.

[Buggaluggs]

Bring my best and most trusted adviser...
.
.
.
.

[Digby]

Is that fashion?

[Sandydragon]

Puja

I saw the whole of Trump's speech. Jesus. I know why the networks switched him off. Poisonous, slightly insane, narcissistic, self-serving, society-destabilising shit. I don't think it'll cause an uprising but it'll power some people's delusions for years.

Nothing like setting yourself up to be a martyr to the deep state.

[Digby]

You and the demon sperm doctor are now of one mind, because that's just how stuff works.

And I'd still like to know how Jared got the money to save 666, because it still makes absolutely no business sense anyone would rescue the Kushners in that situation. My assumption in advance is he sold out his country and belongs in jail, but I've been wrong in my beliefs before

Netflix Dirty Money - Slum Lord Millionaire episode had something on it. They are in debt up to their eyeballs if I recall correctly.

I just watched it again, flirted with Russia, then China (before congress stopped it), eventually Brookfield bailed them,biggest shareholder is the Qatari Sovereign Wealth fund. Of course the fact that by that time they Trump was already president is irrelevant.

Qatar or Saudi would be the most likely sources of the money, but whilst they've got a lot of money they don't give it to you for shitty property deals they could get for less after they watch you fail

[Sandydragon]

Completely understand that and the elections manager for Georgia made the point that the number received will be between zero and 9000. My point is that it’s unlikely that the proportion of democrat to Republican voters seen in absentee ballots will be repeated in the military vote. Trump may pick up more votes from that group, which may draw him back given that Biden is only 1500 ahead. Maybe. Possibly. I’ll take the EVs from Georgia as definitely for Trump once the full number of votes is known and tallied.

According to CNN (beware pro-Dem bias) earlier, most of the overseas military vote has already been returned, and counted along with everything else. The 9k is the as-yet unreturned ballots from those sent out to overseas military bases.
They also said that the overseas military vote is generally close to a 50:50 split, but is impossible to delve into deeper than that as it depends who's overseas at the time, which also makes it too unpredictable to be worth breaking down by state etc.

They had no idea how much of the 9k could be expected back.

Yes, it’s a big unknown. It may be that any additional military votes will increase Bidens majority, or it may not. With such a small margin it’s a unknown at the moment and thankfully with Pennsylvania looking strong, it won’t upset the apple cart too much if Georgia did swing back red.

[Which Tyler]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

USA: Biden +4,184,734 (2.8%)


GA: Biden +7,248 (0.1%)
So he should be safe from the overseas voting, and beyond a recount switch.
Recount has already been triggered (form once they've finished the actual count)


NV: Biden +22,657 (1.8%)
This should really be called by now, the only reason it isn't is because it would make AP and Fox call the race, even though Arizona is still in play.


PA: Biden +28,833 (0.5%)
Only a matter of time before this is called. Looks like they've only got "provisional" votes left to count. It's also anhuge state, so 29k still outs itnin recount territory (but safe from any meaningful difference there)


AZ: Biden +29,861 (1.0%)
This is still narrowing, but it doesn't look like it's fast enough to turn back to the red, butnthat can change depending on where the vote dump comes from.


NC: Trump +77,515 (1.4%)
Not a single vote has been counted since Wednesday morning FFS. ~250k early / mail-in votes to count + however many late arrivals (I think tomorrow mid the deadline). No idea whatsoever what's going on there.


ETA: Apparently NC state law says that they can't count ANY absentee (mail-in / early) ballots until they've all been collected, so they can't start that count until the deadline for arrival has passed.

Let's hope they go a bit quicker than PA / NV when it comes to counting the damned things.

[Sandydragon]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

USA: Biden +4,184,734 (2.8%)


GA: Biden +7,248 (0.1%)
So he should be safe from the overseas voting, and beyond a recount switch.
Recount has already been triggered (form once they've finished the actual count)


NV: Biden +22,657 (1.8%)
This should really be called by now, the only reason it isn't is because it would make AP and Fox call the race, even though Arizona is still in play.


PA: Biden +28,833 (0.5%)
Only a matter of time before this is called. Looks like they've only got "provisional" votes left to count. It's also anhuge state, so 29k still outs itnin recount territory (but safe from any meaningful difference there)


AZ: Biden +29,861 (1.0%)
This is still narrowing, but it doesn't look like it's fast enough to turn back to the red, butnthat can change depending on where the vote dump comes from.


NC: Trump +77,515 (1.4%)
Not a single vote has been counted since Wednesday morning FFS. ~250k early / mail-in votes to count + however many late arrivals (I think tomorrow mid the deadline). No idea whatsoever what's going on there.


ETA: Apparently NC state law says that they can't count ANY absentee (mail-in / early) ballots until they've all been collected, so they can't start that count until the deadline for arrival has passed.

Let's hope they go a bit quicker than PA / NV when it comes to counting the damned things.

I did wonder why NC had frozen, that does explain it. Thankfully it won't be a crucial state.

[Stom]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

USA: Biden +4,184,734 (2.8%)


GA: Biden +7,248 (0.1%)
So he should be safe from the overseas voting, and beyond a recount switch.
Recount has already been triggered (form once they've finished the actual count)


NV: Biden +22,657 (1.8%)
This should really be called by now, the only reason it isn't is because it would make AP and Fox call the race, even though Arizona is still in play.


PA: Biden +28,833 (0.5%)
Only a matter of time before this is called. Looks like they've only got "provisional" votes left to count. It's also anhuge state, so 29k still outs itnin recount territory (but safe from any meaningful difference there)


AZ: Biden +29,861 (1.0%)
This is still narrowing, but it doesn't look like it's fast enough to turn back to the red, butnthat can change depending on where the vote dump comes from.


NC: Trump +77,515 (1.4%)
Not a single vote has been counted since Wednesday morning FFS. ~250k early / mail-in votes to count + however many late arrivals (I think tomorrow mid the deadline). No idea whatsoever what's going on there.


ETA: Apparently NC state law says that they can't count ANY absentee (mail-in / early) ballots until they've all been collected, so they can't start that count until the deadline for arrival has passed.

Let's hope they go a bit quicker than PA / NV when it comes to counting the damned things.

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

[Which Tyler]

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

[WaspInWales]

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

In Soviet Russia, counting completes before voting starts

[Puja]

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

USA: Biden +4,184,734 (2.8%)


GA: Biden +7,248 (0.1%)
So he should be safe from the overseas voting, and beyond a recount switch.
Recount has already been triggered (form once they've finished the actual count)


NV: Biden +22,657 (1.8%)
This should really be called by now, the only reason it isn't is because it would make AP and Fox call the race, even though Arizona is still in play.


PA: Biden +28,833 (0.5%)
Only a matter of time before this is called. Looks like they've only got "provisional" votes left to count. It's also anhuge state, so 29k still outs itnin recount territory (but safe from any meaningful difference there)


AZ: Biden +29,861 (1.0%)
This is still narrowing, but it doesn't look like it's fast enough to turn back to the red, butnthat can change depending on where the vote dump comes from.


NC: Trump +77,515 (1.4%)
Not a single vote has been counted since Wednesday morning FFS. ~250k early / mail-in votes to count + however many late arrivals (I think tomorrow mid the deadline). No idea whatsoever what's going on there.


ETA: Apparently NC state law says that they can't count ANY absentee (mail-in / early) ballots until they've all been collected, so they can't start that count until the deadline for arrival has passed.

Let's hope they go a bit quicker than PA / NV when it comes to counting the damned things.

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

I keep thinking of those images on GEncount nights where boxes are driven in and the runners are sprinting to carry them to the tables. I think postal voting has completely thrown them with its scale.

[Sandydragon]

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

I suppose as well that the pressure isn’t there. In our elections we need to know the final count pretty quickly so a government can continue or the opposition take a trip to the palace. Most of our government change over happen very rapidly.

In the US the change over isn’t until January so actually nothing hugely changes. There is still a government albeit with a president who is now a lame duck.

[Sandydragon]

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

Trump can’t concede . I don’t think it’s in his personality to be humble and equally having set himself up as a cheated martyr, he can’t walk away from that now. Set sup Trump jnr for 2024 as a revenge mission.

[Puja]

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

Trump can’t concede . I don’t think it’s in his personality to be humble and equally having set himself up as a cheated martyr, he can’t walk away from that now. Set sup Trump jnr for 2024 as a revenge mission.

All of the mechanisms that're used for the transition are going to be broken. Trump already refused to unveil a portrait of Obama at the White House, which is a tradition of 40 years, I don't see him offering any help with handing over the reins of power and making sure everything is smooth, and I cannot imagine him even attending Biden's inauguration, let alone cutting a dignified figure. A presidential museum might be something he'll do - something with his name on that can shout how great he is sounds right up his street - but he'll never be a sensible President that goes to official functions and is thanked for his service, he'll be the angry old man still fulminating about how people weren't fair

Puja

[Sandydragon]

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

Trump can’t concede . I don’t think it’s in his personality to be humble and equally having set himself up as a cheated martyr, he can’t walk away from that now. Set sup Trump jnr for 2024 as a revenge mission.

All of the mechanisms that're used for the transition are going to be broken. Trump already refused to unveil a portrait of Obama at the White House, which is a tradition of 40 years, I don't see him offering any help with handing over the reins of power and making sure everything is smooth, and I cannot imagine him even attending Biden's inauguration, let alone cutting a dignified figure. A presidential museum might be something he'll do - something with his name on that can shout how great he is sounds right up his street - but he'll never be a sensible President that goes to official functions and is thanked for his service, he'll be the angry old man still fulminating about how people weren't fair

Puja

Maybe a Trump Museum for racial harmony. They could set something up in his name which would be hugely ironic. Or we just do our best to forget about him, although I feel that his toxic legacy is going to take years to get over.

[Digby]

On the other hand, they're far, far better at saying that what the president just said was simply not true, and at cutting away when they realise that no truth is going to be spoken.

With the counts being so slow and another 10(?) days before they're actually confirmed and recounts etc can start - I can see why they "call the race" before the votes are actually counted...

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

Trump can’t concede . I don’t think it’s in his personality to be humble and equally having set himself up as a cheated martyr, he can’t walk away from that now. Set sup Trump jnr for 2024 as a revenge mission.

Mary Trump was on Channel 4 news last night and observed this outcome is appalling for Trump in a number of ways, he's failed which of itself is unacceptable, there's nobody to bail him out by swallowing his losses or cheating/lying for him which he'd normally anticipate to cover his failings, and given the GOP have done well in the Senate and Congress it's not the GOP dragging him down, he's failing in the Presidential race as Trump, he's the one dragging the GOP down so there's no easy target to blame. Essentially he'll be miserable and left flailing because he just will not be able to cope with what's transpired

[Sandydragon]

And in any other election, the Republican would've called to gracefully concede when Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania and made the rest of the counting a formality. Not this one though - Trump will drag it out to the death rather than have to admit losing at something.

Puja

Trump can’t concede . I don’t think it’s in his personality to be humble and equally having set himself up as a cheated martyr, he can’t walk away from that now. Set sup Trump jnr for 2024 as a revenge mission.

Mary Trump was on Channel 4 news last night and observed this outcome is appalling for Trump in a number of ways, he's failed which of itself is unacceptable, there's nobody to bail him out by swallowing his losses or cheating/lying for him which he'd normally anticipate to cover his failings, and given the GOP have done well in the Senate and Congress it's not the GOP dragging him down, he's failing in the Presidential race as Trump, he's the one dragging the GOP down so there's no easy target to blame. Essentially he'll be miserable and left flailing because he just will not be able to cope with what's transpired

Indeed, he is now a loser. The only way to shift blame is to accuse the democrats or someone of somehow cheating.

[morepork]

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

USA: Biden +4,184,734 (2.8%)


GA: Biden +7,248 (0.1%)
So he should be safe from the overseas voting, and beyond a recount switch.
Recount has already been triggered (form once they've finished the actual count)


NV: Biden +22,657 (1.8%)
This should really be called by now, the only reason it isn't is because it would make AP and Fox call the race, even though Arizona is still in play.


PA: Biden +28,833 (0.5%)
Only a matter of time before this is called. Looks like they've only got "provisional" votes left to count. It's also anhuge state, so 29k still outs itnin recount territory (but safe from any meaningful difference there)


AZ: Biden +29,861 (1.0%)
This is still narrowing, but it doesn't look like it's fast enough to turn back to the red, butnthat can change depending on where the vote dump comes from.


NC: Trump +77,515 (1.4%)
Not a single vote has been counted since Wednesday morning FFS. ~250k early / mail-in votes to count + however many late arrivals (I think tomorrow mid the deadline). No idea whatsoever what's going on there.


ETA: Apparently NC state law says that they can't count ANY absentee (mail-in / early) ballots until they've all been collected, so they can't start that count until the deadline for arrival has passed.

Let's hope they go a bit quicker than PA / NV when it comes to counting the damned things.

You have to say, these Yanks are pretty damn slow at counting compared to the UK...

I do understand that there's more security measures, but jeez.

Both states were prohibited from even looking at mail ballots until Nov.3, and both have had periodic interruptions as the GOP try and head them off.