Trump

[Stom]

Here's one for you. The demographic where Trump has failed to extend his support and even seen some regression is that much maligned group of white men, Trump might well have added more white women into his tally this time around even with his locking of children in cages and his 1st debate appalling behaviour they've stuck with him in places Trump has won more than expected (not perhaps it seems so much in places Trump is losing)

Still, all our thanks no doubt go to those brave white men. Nobody seems to know why that's the group where support is cleaving away, presently some guesses around calling the military losers, former well known generals speaking out to create relevant role models of white men speaking against Donny.

Is it not quite clearly city dwellers?

So we're not talking farmers and laborers but office workers and so on...

The map of voting based upon population density completely apes the voting over here in Hungary, in the UK, in Poland, India, Philippines, Brazil, Belarus, Turkey...

In other words, the world's fascists.

We need done of them and done of enablers.

In even better news, it's looking like the senate races in Georgia and N.Carol are going to a runoff, which would be most likely without Trump's support (can you imagine him campaigning when it doesn't benefit him?), so the Dems could take control of the Senate...

It's going to be close.

[Sandydragon]

I actually think their "Decision Room" team may have saved a lot of furore. At the point at which Trump was clearly winning Florida, everything was turning red, I think they were building up the narrative of him as the presumptive winner in a red wave and getting ready to take action from there. Arizona being called for Biden at that early point completely threw that off the tracks and meant the race felt more competitive.

Given the fact that Arizona has turned out to clearly still be competitive, I wonder whether it wasn't an actual ploy by the Decision Room to interrupt Trump's momentum and prevent him from trying to steal the election. I think Biden will end up winning Arizona when all's told, but I don't see how they can possibly have been certain about it back then, considering how close it's gotten in the end.

Puja

I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

[Puja]

Puja

[Puja]

I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Most places are happy to call Wisconsin and that's likely to have a recount. Biden is 1,000 votes up in Georgia and there's still 10k mail votes to go - assuming he wins them 65:35 (which is actually under his current rate), he ends up winning by 4,000 votes - Trump can recount as he likes, but no recount in recent Yank history has changed the result by more than a thousand and most don't even shift it by more than a couple of hundred.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Most places are happy to call Wisconsin and that's likely to have a recount. Biden is 1,000 votes up in Georgia and there's still 10k mail votes to go - assuming he wins them 65:35 (which is actually under his current rate), he ends up winning by 4,000 votes - Trump can recount as he likes, but no recount in recent Yank history has changed the result by more than a thousand and most don't even shift it by more than a couple of hundred.

Puja

I suppose it will depend largely on how big the margin is at the end. If under a thousand there may be a few jitters but if Biden does get a 4K majority then it’s fairly clear.

[Which Tyler]

Recounts won't change things (unless the gap is down below ~200)
Deciding which ballots count, may. The late counts are safe, and the late arrivals should be and probably some other arguements (ticked instead of crossed, maybe circled...)

[paddy no 11]

Bannon thrown off twatter for saying Fauci should be beheaded

Some hilarious stuff online.....the conversation between the judge and the trump lawyer "a non zero number"

[Digby]

Here's one for you. The demographic where Trump has failed to extend his support and even seen some regression is that much maligned group of white men, Trump might well have added more white women into his tally this time around even with his locking of children in cages and his 1st debate appalling behaviour they've stuck with him in places Trump has won more than expected (not perhaps it seems so much in places Trump is losing)

Still, all our thanks no doubt go to those brave white men. Nobody seems to know why that's the group where support is cleaving away, presently some guesses around calling the military losers, former well known generals speaking out to create relevant role models of white men speaking against Donny.

Is it not quite clearly city dwellers?

So we're not talking farmers and laborers but office workers and so on...

The map of voting based upon population density completely apes the voting over here in Hungary, in the UK, in Poland, India, Philippines, Brazil, Belarus, Turkey...

In other words, the world's fascists.

We need done of them and done of enablers.

In even better news, it's looking like the senate races in Georgia and N.Carol are going to a runoff, which would be most likely without Trump's support (can you imagine him campaigning when it doesn't benefit him?), so the Dems could take control of the Senate...

It's going to be close.

I've not seen any breakdown of how and where white men moved away from Trump. The people I was speaking to didn't understand themselves what had happened, it simply stood out as not as expected, they were expecting much more to see white women moving away from Trump, though that again is going with polling thinking heading into the election.

It's worth noting this commentary on white men moving away from Trump will be driven by exit polling, and the polls aren't exactly hitting it out of the park right now and exit polls have a large margin of error. But it would seem yet again nobody is reading the political intentions of US voters correctly with the changes that have happened not being the changes expected

[Digby]

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Most places are happy to call Wisconsin and that's likely to have a recount. Biden is 1,000 votes up in Georgia and there's still 10k mail votes to go - assuming he wins them 65:35 (which is actually under his current rate), he ends up winning by 4,000 votes - Trump can recount as he likes, but no recount in recent Yank history has changed the result by more than a thousand and most don't even shift it by more than a couple of hundred.

Puja

I suppose it will depend largely on how big the margin is at the end. If under a thousand there may be a few jitters but if Biden does get a 4K majority then it’s fairly clear.

Does Georgia have an automatic recount, or does the loser have to pay for one?

[paddy no 11]

0.5% goes to recount on request

[morepork]

Bannon thrown off twatter for saying Fauci should be beheaded

Some hilarious stuff online.....the conversation between the judge and the trump lawyer "a non zero number"

Jesus, what an utter piece of shit. The whole show needs shutting down. Miss. Lindsay Graham, Ted "Androgenous Android" Cruz and Tom Let Them Pick Cotton were all on Faux news parroting Trump's reeedikolous claims of fraud and cheating. His two fuckhead products of grafting experiments, Jr, and Eric, are furiously dialing up the bullshit, and tension surrounding due process. Violence is all but being openly encouraged. Why cannot all political actors be taken off social media, and probably off air, right now?

[gransoporro]

It’s coming home, it’s coming home, it’s coming
Pennsylvania is coming home

+6k for Biden after Philly votes were counted.

[Banquo]

It’s all over, PA done and dusted.

Bigly win for Biden.

[gransoporro]

Bannon thrown off twatter for saying Fauci should be beheaded

Some hilarious stuff online.....the conversation between the judge and the trump lawyer "a non zero number"

And Wray too.

After hearing it, the twat was threading the line. He was metaphorical, but also literal enough to throw red meat to his base.

[paddy no 11]

well done philly - Penn is the only one where there is a point of law that could be dragged out, so need Arizona & nevada to wrap up to get this done and over with irrespective of Penn

[morepork]

Get in.

[Stom]

Get in.

Hey, let's not celebrate until the Senate race is run, we all know that if the Senate is red, nothing will happen for 2 years...

Hopeful there could be run-off elections in 4 races, with the Senate tied at 48 each and a lame duck president who might throw his toys out of the pram.

[morepork]

....Till the fat man sings...

[Puja]

It's worth noting this commentary on white men moving away from Trump will be driven by exit polling, and the polls aren't exactly hitting it out of the park right now and exit polls have a large margin of error. But it would seem yet again nobody is reading the political intentions of US voters correctly with the changes that have happened not being the changes expected

I think's a few pollsters who will be feeling slightly irked that the general opinion is still, "God, why do we even do polls?!" when the last few days of mail ballots are largely vindicating them. They had a national polling error of 4% (with more Biden votes still coming in) which is within normal range for polls and they called all the states correctly except for Florida and North Carolina. They said Biden would win big in the EC - he's due to walk it with 306. Seems pretty solid to me.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

It's worth noting this commentary on white men moving away from Trump will be driven by exit polling, and the polls aren't exactly hitting it out of the park right now and exit polls have a large margin of error. But it would seem yet again nobody is reading the political intentions of US voters correctly with the changes that have happened not being the changes expected

I think's a few pollsters who will be feeling slightly irked that the general opinion is still, "God, why do we even do polls?!" when the last few days of mail ballots are largely vindicating them. They had a national polling error of 4% (with more Biden votes still coming in) which is within normal range for polls and they called all the states correctly except for Florida and North Carolina. They said Biden would win big in the EC - he's due to walk it with 306. Seems pretty solid to me.

Puja

It is actually moving that way. The margin of victory in the EC and popular vote could be quite sizeable if those states that are blue remain so (fully expect Alaska and N Carolina to go red).

[Puja]

It's worth noting this commentary on white men moving away from Trump will be driven by exit polling, and the polls aren't exactly hitting it out of the park right now and exit polls have a large margin of error. But it would seem yet again nobody is reading the political intentions of US voters correctly with the changes that have happened not being the changes expected

I think's a few pollsters who will be feeling slightly irked that the general opinion is still, "God, why do we even do polls?!" when the last few days of mail ballots are largely vindicating them. They had a national polling error of 4% (with more Biden votes still coming in) which is within normal range for polls and they called all the states correctly except for Florida and North Carolina. They said Biden would win big in the EC - he's due to walk it with 306. Seems pretty solid to me.

Puja

It is actually moving that way. The margin of victory in the EC and popular vote could be quite sizeable if those states that are blue remain so (fully expect Alaska and N Carolina to go red).

Mind, the Senate candidate for Alaska is making a good deal of noise about mail-in ballots making his race competitive. It sounds bananas given he's 62%-32% down, but with only 56% of the vote counted and a large part that's not being mail in, he's got a (very) outside shot.

Would certainly make the two Georgia runoffs interesting if he can pull off an upset.

Puja

[Buggaluggs]

Dems not doing as well as they hoped in Congress. Overall it does appear less of a complete repudiation of Trumpism than had been expected. Perhaps that is partly explained by Biden being a pretty weak candidate. Either way almost 70M people voted for Trump which is staggering.

[Sandydragon]

7000 up now in Pennsylvania and just over 1000 in Georgia. Looking pretty safe unless there is something really odd in the wings.

[morepork]

Dems not doing as well as they hoped in Congress. Overall it does appear less of a complete repudiation of Trumpism than had been expected. Perhaps that is partly explained by Biden being a pretty weak candidate. Either way almost 70M people voted for Trump which is staggering.

Round them up?

Lock them up?

Fuck them up?

Hug and nice cuppa?

[Digby]

7000 up now in Pennsylvania and just over 1000 in Georgia. Looking pretty safe unless there is something really odd in the wings.

Eric Trump, or Kimberly Guilfoyle, or Rudy Giuliani, or Steve Bannon, or...