Trump

[Which Tyler]

Pennsylvania: T+619k ~1330k TBC

Wisconsin: B+21k ~97k TBC

Arizona: B+131k ~468k TBC

Georgia: T+104k ~373k TBC

Michigan: T+27k ~671k TBC

Nevada: B+8k ~164k TBC

WI, MI, Penn & Nev are mostly counting early/mail ballots which heavily skew Dem, Georgia are mostly counting Atlanta which comfortably skews Dem

[Sandydragon]

Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Agreed, this has potential to kick off royally.

I can't for the life of my understand why postal ballots cannot be counted alongside other ballots and declared simultaneously. This feels like death by a thousand cuts.

[Sandydragon]

Pennsylvania: T+619k ~1330k TBC

Wisconsin: B+21k ~97k TBC

Arizona: B+131k ~468k TBC

Georgia: T+104k ~373k TBC

Michigan: T+27k ~671k TBC

Nevada: T+8k ~164k TBC

WI,MI and Penn are mostly counting early/mail ballots which heavily skew Dem, Georgia are mostly counting Atlanta which comfortably skews Dem

Whats the source for that - has Nevada flipped red?

[Digby]

I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja


ETA. Although would sane Americans want to come here given our shift Trumpwards? It's like a refugee in the 1930s leaving Germany to settle down in Spain.

You're not the only one.

I didn't see there being this many people happy to be so morally bankrupt and/or thick as mince either. Still, democracy for the win, maybe.

[Which Tyler]

Pennsylvania: T+619k ~1330k TBC

Wisconsin: B+21k ~97k TBC

Arizona: B+131k ~468k TBC

Georgia: T+104k ~373k TBC

Michigan: T+27k ~671k TBC

Nevada: B+8k ~164k TBC

WI,MI and Penn are mostly counting early/mail ballots which heavily skew Dem, Georgia are mostly counting Atlanta which comfortably skews Dem

Whats the source for that - has Nevada flipped red?

CNN but Nevada was my cock-up, sorry

[Digby]

The good news in some sense is the Democratic Party improved when losing many of the Southern racists, now the Democrats are losing the Northern racists which is hurting them in this election as in 2016, but in the long game this surely only plays out one way absent of a civil war between then and now

[Puja]

Edited: Never mind, he's already fixed it.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

If we're all fixated by this, can you imagine what its like in the Democrat and Republican 'war rooms'. Coffee via IV drip potentially by this point.

[Puja]

Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Agreed, this has potential to kick off royally.

I can't for the life of my understand why postal ballots cannot be counted alongside other ballots and declared simultaneously. This feels like death by a thousand cuts.

A lot of Yank states use electronic voting machines, so they auto-count and then just have to be checked to make sure that they've got it right. Postal ballots have to be opened (then removed from their "secrecy envelopes" depending on how ridiculous the state is), then checked to make sure that "teh frauds" are not happening, then counted. Sensible states like Florida (first time that phrase has been used) count postal votes when they come in and keep the totals secret. Semi-sensible states at least process them early (remove from envelope, check, etc) and then have hte count on the day. Fucking stupid states with Republican legislatures specifically ban anyone even so much as touching an envelope before the polls close.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Agreed, this has potential to kick off royally.

I can't for the life of my understand why postal ballots cannot be counted alongside other ballots and declared simultaneously. This feels like death by a thousand cuts.

A lot of Yank states use electronic voting machines, so they auto-count and then just have to be checked to make sure that they've got it right. Postal ballots have to be opened (then removed from their "secrecy envelopes" depending on how ridiculous the state is), then checked to make sure that "teh frauds" are not happening, then counted. Sensible states like Florida (first time that phrase has been used) count postal votes when they come in and keep the totals secret. Semi-sensible states at least process them early (remove from envelope, check, etc) and then have hte count on the day. Fucking stupid states with Republican legislatures specifically ban anyone even so much as touching an envelope before the polls close.

Puja

Notwithstanding the security concerns around postal voting (however overblown) it would make sense for a cut off point ot be announced and then for the votes to be counted concurrently with the other votes, or at least if the electronic voting is in place then the results are kept secret until all votes by whatever means are counted for that district/country/whatever.

As a federal election, surely the federal government can suggest to states that their returns need to be ready for a specific time after polling closes (not withstanding if there are any recounts). This current process seems positively idiotic.

[Zhivago]

Michigan has flipped, not sure if someone mentioned that

[Sandydragon]

Michigan now trending blue!!

[Sandydragon]

Michigan has flipped, not sure if someone mentioned that

Bugger, beat me to it. Just heard it on BBC news, 0.1% ahead with 11% of the vote left to be counted.

[Sandydragon]

Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

[Sandydragon]

Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

[Puja]

Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

And that's with Georgia and North Carolina still being in play - by my reckoning, Biden needs 2:1 on the remaining votes in those states to win them, which is not impossible considering a lot of the remaining votes are mail-in votes. Be amusing if Biden ends up winning handsomely while losing Pennsylvania which was supposed to be key.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

[Banquo]

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

[Which Tyler]

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

[Sandydragon]

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

BBC news reported that the vote for Trump had increased in Pennsylvania, but theres still 24% of the vote to count so its still a possibility.

Big concern right now is Nevada which is really close.

[Sandydragon]

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

I am referring to Pennsylvania.

Thats my understanding, if those states which are blue remain so its Biden's win. Just.

[Banquo]

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

soz, I'd thought he was referring to MI being important given what was happening in PA.

AZ bagged by the look of it- good turnover.

[Which Tyler]

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

BBC news reported that the vote for Trump had increased in Pennsylvania, but theres still 24% of the vote to count so its still a possibility.

Big concern right now is Nevada which is really close.

OK, BBC disagree with CNN, and AP.
CNN have Trump ahead by 567k
AP have Trump's lead at 562k

Was 617k at lunchtime

Nevada is concerning, but mostly from 1 update, and were still waiting on Las Vegas mail-ins, which should be about 2:1 for Biden. No point worrying there though, as the counters have been sent home to get some sleep. They haven't finished counting the votes they have, and their mail-on deadline is this evening

[Banquo]

Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

[Which Tyler]

Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

Officially, Alaska as well - all 3 because of mail-on deadlines.
Of course, Alaska won't be close anyway