COVID19

[Puja]

Well, we jut kicked the shit out of COVID for a second time.

Shit, how did you manage that? Did you have a special licence that included Microsoft Publisher or something?!

Puja

[Puja]

Well, we jut kicked the shit out of COVID for a second time.

Shit, how did you manage that? Did you have a special licence that included Microsoft Publisher or something?!

Puja

Regional lockdown, in this case Auckland, while reinstating the mandatory basic public health measures across the country (facemasks on public transport, constant reminders to wash hands for 20 seconds, mandatory social distancing, etc). There was also a significant upswing in the use of the COVID tracer app, which made contact tracing fairly successful - the rest was to basically interview, test and quarantine people who were exposed as they were detected. The key thing is that the 2-week lockdown cut off the virus' ability to spread, so the number of confirmed cases in the community was fairly low this time around. This meant that the virus wasn't able to spread much further beyond the one cluster (creatively named "The Auckland August Cluster"), which capped off at 179 cases - it didn't help that it ended up spreading significantly via a church, but despite numbers, was also fairly well-contained.

The only other "outbreak" was a staff member at a hotel where people arriving into the country are doing their mandatory isolation managed to get infected, probably through surface transmission (the public health staff were able to trace it back to a person in mandatory isolation that was in quarantine, but the infected staff member and the person in question never came into contact at any point).

Auckland has just now gone into Level 1 alert down from the Level 2 alert we've been at for about a month, and we've just gone through an entire infection cycle without a single community case detected.

Ah - actual functional government and clear, consistent public messaging. We don't do that here.

Puja

[paddy no 11]

The isle of man is doing it well enough - including prison for others not inclined to comply with 2 week isolation

[Digby]

Having been critical of government for utterly shanking communication around Covid19 it's so pleasing to learn we're going with a regional multi-tiered approach that starts at medium, one presumes because like moronic coffees shops you can't start with a low/small offering. Just how the feck is advising them to veer all over the place from eat out to help out, to go to the cinema, to stay at home all within hours at times?

Clearly one can look at Sweden having a consistent message and find some minor things to quibble about in that approach too, but that doesn't excuse Agent Cummings and Goings and Boris pratting around day after day during a pandemic refusing to take it seriously.

[Sandydragon]

Apparently there is serious consideration for a 2-3 week circuit break over half term. FFS if this is correct then make the frigging call and let people sort out holiday plans early. I don’t object on principle to a circuit break, the situation is looking like it will be needed, but please spare us another last minute faff.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The UK government is ignoring the science:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... econd-wave

The 2nd wave is gathering momentum:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... gures-show

Starmer takes a strong opposing position:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... on-england
It'll be interesting to see how this plays in the (currently tied) opinion polls.

[Puja]

Apparently there is serious consideration for a 2-3 week circuit break over half term. FFS if this is correct then make the frigging call and let people sort out holiday plans early. I don’t object on principle to a circuit break, the situation is looking like it will be needed, but please spare us another last minute faff.

That is the best idea I've heard. As you said, would have to be communicated early and clearly (beyond the capacity of this government), but it's the perfect opportunity with schoolchildren already at home and it could cut the second wave off at the knees.

Would need to be accompanied by a robust 2 week furlough scheme, but it's a golden opportunity that the government will absolutely fail to take.

Puja

[morepork]

Shat the bed is a phrase that comes to mind.

Is the testing and tracing in any way functioning there?

[Son of Mathonwy]

Shat the bed is a phrase that comes to mind.

Is the testing and tracing in any way functioning there?

The delayed, and outsourced (to companies and a CEO with zero experience of contact tracing) process is having marginal effect only:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 10151.html

The government have at 7 months to put something together. They could have learnt from South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand etc, but no, this is what we have. This is why the economy will continue to be locked-down to some extent and why people will die in large numbers (143 today) for the foreseeable. Inexcusable.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-54535481

Almost as idiotic as it was preictable

[Sandydragon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-54535481

Almost as idiotic as it was preictable

The government is losing public compliance. Inevitable really with so many dissenting viewpoints and a government that isn’t trusted.

[Digby]

Not sure what to make of Keir breaking with government policy. He needs to add rather more than lets end up at the same place two weeks later to try and justify saying he's going with the scientists rather than the government

[Puja]

Not sure what to make of Keir breaking with government policy. He needs to add rather more than lets end up at the same place two weeks later to try and justify saying he's going with the scientists rather than the government

It wouldn't be the same place though - if you look at what Israel's circuit-breaker lockdown accomplished, it made a massive difference in the spread and could allow us to get back in control of the thing again.

Puja

[Digby]

Not sure what to make of Keir breaking with government policy. He needs to add rather more than lets end up at the same place two weeks later to try and justify saying he's going with the scientists rather than the government

It wouldn't be the same place though - if you look at what Israel's circuit-breaker lockdown accomplished, it made a massive difference in the spread and could allow us to get back in control of the thing again.

Puja

If I thought 2 weeks would be enough to get the numbers down sufficiently and get track and trace actually working fine, but I'm not buying that for a moment so the plan needs some additions. I'm not saying he's wrong or I'm without sympathy for what is a difficult decision to separate from government policy, but he does need to go further, as is it's just a political trap for Boris which is elegantly framed and useful to Keir, it's just not especially useful to the country.

[Puja]

Not sure what to make of Keir breaking with government policy. He needs to add rather more than lets end up at the same place two weeks later to try and justify saying he's going with the scientists rather than the government

It wouldn't be the same place though - if you look at what Israel's circuit-breaker lockdown accomplished, it made a massive difference in the spread and could allow us to get back in control of the thing again.

Puja

If I thought 2 weeks would be enough to get the numbers down sufficiently and get track and trace actually working fine, but I'm not buying that for a moment so the plan needs some additions. I'm not saying he's wrong or I'm without sympathy for what is a difficult decision to separate from government policy, but he does need to go further, as is it's just a political trap for Boris which is elegantly framed and useful to Keir, it's just not especially useful to the country.

2 weeks is pretty much the perfect length of time though. If you say it's complete lockdown, combined with the schools being shut over half-term, then you stand a chance of getting full public buy-in over a short 2 weeks. And if you can do that, then you've denied the virus 95% of its transmission vectors for the same period of time that it normally takes between infection and recovery/getting to a stage where you can't transmit it. You'd have a large number of cases currently present having a R rate of zero as they'd be having it at home, away from anyone else.

Will it solve all the problems? Course not. Would 4 weeks or 6 weeks be better? Definitely. Do I think there's a chance in hell of people obeying a lockdown for that long, given the behaviour of people in power and the terrible communication? Not even slightly. Two weeks would make a massive difference and would stand a chance of actually being stuck to.

Puja

[Digby]

It wouldn't be the same place though - if you look at what Israel's circuit-breaker lockdown accomplished, it made a massive difference in the spread and could allow us to get back in control of the thing again.

Puja

If I thought 2 weeks would be enough to get the numbers down sufficiently and get track and trace actually working fine, but I'm not buying that for a moment so the plan needs some additions. I'm not saying he's wrong or I'm without sympathy for what is a difficult decision to separate from government policy, but he does need to go further, as is it's just a political trap for Boris which is elegantly framed and useful to Keir, it's just not especially useful to the country.

2 weeks is pretty much the perfect length of time though. If you say it's complete lockdown, combined with the schools being shut over half-term, then you stand a chance of getting full public buy-in over a short 2 weeks. And if you can do that, then you've denied the virus 95% of its transmission vectors for the same period of time that it normally takes between infection and recovery/getting to a stage where you can't transmit it. You'd have a large number of cases currently present having a R rate of zero as they'd be having it at home, away from anyone else.

Will it solve all the problems? Course not. Would 4 weeks or 6 weeks be better? Definitely. Do I think there's a chance in hell of people obeying a lockdown for that long, given the behaviour of people in power and the terrible communication? Not even slightly. Two weeks would make a massive difference and would stand a chance of actually being stuck to.

Puja

I think we're too late to get away with just a two week correction. And even then they'd still need a track and trace programme that could and would work. The delay would be helpful, but it's not enough, and it's not enough to warrant the major political parties splitting their messaging during a pandemic

[Puja]

If I thought 2 weeks would be enough to get the numbers down sufficiently and get track and trace actually working fine, but I'm not buying that for a moment so the plan needs some additions. I'm not saying he's wrong or I'm without sympathy for what is a difficult decision to separate from government policy, but he does need to go further, as is it's just a political trap for Boris which is elegantly framed and useful to Keir, it's just not especially useful to the country.

2 weeks is pretty much the perfect length of time though. If you say it's complete lockdown, combined with the schools being shut over half-term, then you stand a chance of getting full public buy-in over a short 2 weeks. And if you can do that, then you've denied the virus 95% of its transmission vectors for the same period of time that it normally takes between infection and recovery/getting to a stage where you can't transmit it. You'd have a large number of cases currently present having a R rate of zero as they'd be having it at home, away from anyone else.

Will it solve all the problems? Course not. Would 4 weeks or 6 weeks be better? Definitely. Do I think there's a chance in hell of people obeying a lockdown for that long, given the behaviour of people in power and the terrible communication? Not even slightly. Two weeks would make a massive difference and would stand a chance of actually being stuck to.

Puja

I think we're too late to get away with just a two week correction. And even then they'd still need a track and trace programme that could and would work. The delay would be helpful, but it's not enough, and it's not enough to warrant the major political parties splitting their messaging during a pandemic

Is it the job of the Opposition to cleave to government messaging in a pandemic, even when said government appears to have made no effort at cross-party involvement? If there was a coalition or if there were cross-bench working parties or some kind of attempt to work as a whole parliament on a national emergency, then I'd agree that a united front was called for, but Boris appears to be treating this as government business for the governing party. That's his right with the majority he has, of course, but I don't think you can then chide the Leader of the Opposition for critiquing government plans and holding them to account.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Is it the job of the Opposition to cleave to government messaging in a pandemic, even when said government appears to have made no effort at cross-party involvement? If there was a coalition or if there were cross-bench working parties or some kind of attempt to work as a whole parliament on a national emergency, then I'd agree that a united front was called for, but Boris appears to be treating this as government business for the governing party. That's his right with the majority he has, of course, but I don't think you can then chide the Leader of the Opposition for critiquing government plans and holding them to account.

Then you haven't been paying attention.
Apparently, it's the opposition's job to at exactly as if it were governing; with detailed and fleshed out plans; to stick to government messaging more closely than the government does; and to do more than say "what SAGE said" to be seen as backing SAGE.


In other news...
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/14/students ... -13419886/
Students handed coronavirus test kits that had already been used

[Digby]

It's not the job of the opposition to support the government ever, but there are good reasons why one wouldn't want to confuse the messaging during a pandemic. Again I have some sympathy with the position Starmer has found himself in with a government being some mix of delusional and pissed in their response, but given he's split I think he needs to add more detail.

[canta_brian]

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's not the job of the opposition to support the government ever, but there are good reasons why one wouldn't want to confuse the messaging during a pandemic. Again I have some sympathy with the position Starmer has found himself in with a government being some mix of delusional and pissed in their response, but given he's split I think he needs to add more detail.

How much detail are you looking for here? Since Labour aren't in power, more detail is pointless (and in fact a distraction and potentially a political liability).

[Digby]

It's not the job of the opposition to support the government ever, but there are good reasons why one wouldn't want to confuse the messaging during a pandemic. Again I have some sympathy with the position Starmer has found himself in with a government being some mix of delusional and pissed in their response, but given he's split I think he needs to add more detail.

How much detail are you looking for here? Since Labour aren't in power, more detail is pointless (and in fact a distraction and potentially a political liability).

He's already creating the distraction and liability by separating the official opposition from the government, not unreasonably so for many but either way it's a big step. And given the cases were only starting to rise in the North when we came out of the national lockdown (or when the South looked good to come out of lockdown) it doesn't look much like a 2 week circuit break is doing enough for a large area of the country beyond being a delaying tactic, so what will the delay allow for, especially when saying track and trace will be in place looks pie in the sky.

There's a school of thought it's appropriate or at least sufficient for Starmer to merely set out a major difference in policy during a pandemic and leave it at that, it's not a line of thinking I'd share.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's not the job of the opposition to support the government ever, but there are good reasons why one wouldn't want to confuse the messaging during a pandemic. Again I have some sympathy with the position Starmer has found himself in with a government being some mix of delusional and pissed in their response, but given he's split I think he needs to add more detail.

How much detail are you looking for here? Since Labour aren't in power, more detail is pointless (and in fact a distraction and potentially a political liability).

He's already creating the distraction and liability by separating the official opposition from the government, not unreasonably so for many but either way it's a big step. And given the cases were only starting to rise in the North when we came out of the national lockdown (or when the South looked good to come out of lockdown) it doesn't look much like a 2 week circuit break is doing enough for a large area of the country beyond being a delaying tactic, so what will the delay allow for, especially when saying track and trace will be in place looks pie in the sky.

There's a school of thought it's appropriate or at least sufficient for Starmer to merely set out a major difference in policy during a pandemic and leave it at that, it's not a line of thinking I'd share.

I mean any detail could be used as a distraction from his main point, which is to follow Sage's advice and have a short lockdown. Political liability as in any detailed point he made could be attacked in isolation.

But I'm still not understanding what details you want him to come up with. He doesn't have Sage, he's not at Cobra, he doesn't have the department of Health, how can he give a detailed plan?

[Digby]

How much detail are you looking for here? Since Labour aren't in power, more detail is pointless (and in fact a distraction and potentially a political liability).

He's already creating the distraction and liability by separating the official opposition from the government, not unreasonably so for many but either way it's a big step. And given the cases were only starting to rise in the North when we came out of the national lockdown (or when the South looked good to come out of lockdown) it doesn't look much like a 2 week circuit break is doing enough for a large area of the country beyond being a delaying tactic, so what will the delay allow for, especially when saying track and trace will be in place looks pie in the sky.

There's a school of thought it's appropriate or at least sufficient for Starmer to merely set out a major difference in policy during a pandemic and leave it at that, it's not a line of thinking I'd share.

I mean any detail could be used as a distraction from his main point, which is to follow Sage's advice and have a short lockdown. Political liability as in any detailed point he made could be attacked in isolation.

But I'm still not understanding what details you want him to come up with. He doesn't have Sage, he's not at Cobra, he doesn't have the department of Health, how can he give a detailed plan?

I didn't ask for a detailed plan, simply more detail.

So what happens if the R number doesn't drop inside 2 weeks because it's already too prevalent in certain communities and given lockdowns take seemingly much longer to take effect than virus spread in 'normal' conditions? How much more lockdown above tier 2/3? What will happen to track and trace and other services to reap any benefits of the circuit break?...

If he's got no answers to any of that fine, but at that point don't set out the commencement of an entirely different policy during a pandemic. He's not a bloke down the pub venting, he's the leader of the official opposition and what he says matters

[Son of Mathonwy]

He's already creating the distraction and liability by separating the official opposition from the government, not unreasonably so for many but either way it's a big step. And given the cases were only starting to rise in the North when we came out of the national lockdown (or when the South looked good to come out of lockdown) it doesn't look much like a 2 week circuit break is doing enough for a large area of the country beyond being a delaying tactic, so what will the delay allow for, especially when saying track and trace will be in place looks pie in the sky.

There's a school of thought it's appropriate or at least sufficient for Starmer to merely set out a major difference in policy during a pandemic and leave it at that, it's not a line of thinking I'd share.

I mean any detail could be used as a distraction from his main point, which is to follow Sage's advice and have a short lockdown. Political liability as in any detailed point he made could be attacked in isolation.

But I'm still not understanding what details you want him to come up with. He doesn't have Sage, he's not at Cobra, he doesn't have the department of Health, how can he give a detailed plan?

I didn't ask for a detailed plan, simply more detail.

So what happens if the R number doesn't drop inside 2 weeks because it's already too prevalent in certain communities and given lockdowns take seemingly much longer to take effect than virus spread in 'normal' conditions? How much more lockdown above tier 2/3? What will happen to track and trace and other services to reap any benefits of the circuit break?...

If he's got no answers to any of that fine, but at that point don't set out the commencement of an entirely different policy during a pandemic. He's not a bloke down the pub venting, he's the leader of the official opposition and what he says matters

He's saying we should follow a different plan. You want him to give more details. How is that not asking for a detailed plan? But okay, if you prefer, simply more detail.

Are you seriously expecting him to give a long speech detailing exactly what should happen in a number of different contingencies? More detail than Sage has given, and all without direct access to Sage or other experts? To be honest, it would be irresponsible to attempt to do this without expert advice. All he is doing is saying to follow the scientific advice.

And from a politics point of view, he's just following the government's example in keeping the message simple. Why bog people down with details (which would be risky to give anyway) when a broad strokes message is more effective?

You say that what the leader of the opposition say matters. Presumably because it might affect understanding, confidence and/or compliance in the government's plan? Starmer has been pretty supportive of the government's strategy (if not the execution) to date, at least partly for these reasons (to the dismay of many Labour supporters). But at some point, if the strategy appears to be harmful to the country as it repeats the same mistake of delaying the inevitable as in March, then deviating from the government strategy seems to me to be the right thing to do.