COVID19

[Eugene Wrayburn]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

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Bad news in my view. My great hope was that there was a shit ton of hidden transmission and therefore a large body of people who were unknowingly immune.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

It's fine, it'll all be fine don't worry.

I've no idea what a Pollyanna fuckwit is, so have at it.

At the risk of me being several kinds of fuckwit at once... you shouldn't be so worried about CV-19 because the forthcoming environmental apocalypse is going to make this little chapter look like a fucking picnic.

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That's no help at all because you provide no reason to believe it will be fine

[canta_brian]

I need someone brighter than me to explain how the R number can be calculated and compared (just uk figures) when we change who we test all the time. We started out only testing people we were certain had covid. Now we test lots more. I get that positive tests v all tests will be dropping, but what does that actually mean for how the virus is spreading in the population?

[Donny osmond]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

It's fine, it'll all be fine don't worry.

I've no idea what a Pollyanna fuckwit is, so have at it.

At the risk of me being several kinds of fuckwit at once... you shouldn't be so worried about CV-19 because the forthcoming environmental apocalypse is going to make this little chapter look like a fucking picnic.

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That's no help at all because you provide no reason to believe it will be fine

In the immortal words of Tom Cruise in his tour de force, and profoundly philosophical film, Cocktail; everything ends badly, or else it wouldn't end.



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[Eugene Wrayburn]

I need someone brighter than me to explain how the R number can be calculated and compared (just uk figures) when we change who we test all the time. We started out only testing people we were certain had covid. Now we test lots more. I get that positive tests v all tests will be dropping, but what does that actually mean for how the virus is spreading in the population?

It's an estimated figure rather than a calculation as such. I imagine they input the number of positive tests and symptomatic people and hospital admissions.

[morepork]

I need someone brighter than me to explain how the R number can be calculated and compared (just uk figures) when we change who we test all the time. We started out only testing people we were certain had covid. Now we test lots more. I get that positive tests v all tests will be dropping, but what does that actually mean for how the virus is spreading in the population?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6302597/

It is a measure of the probability of transmission (or reproduction) of the pathogen in a population. R1 means one infected individual can be predicted to transmit the pathogen to one other individual. It is not a biological constant and relies on complex mathematical modeling of social and viral life cycle variables. Changes in any one variable will impact the R0 value. Calculation requires accurate raw data for all variables, so good luck and god speed with the R0 estimate in whatever dysfunctional society you happen to be stranded in at present

[Eugene Wrayburn]

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/ ... d-kingdom/

By coincidence today the Stats Regulators have a report on the presentation.

[Banquo]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Bad news in my view. My great hope was that there was a shit ton of hidden transmission and therefore a large body of people who were unknowingly immune.

There is some talk of natural immunity, which is/was my great hope. I'm not sure that anyone is sure that being infected does make you immune as yet, unless I've missed that.

This is the issue with a novel virus I suppose; anyone else a little bemused when Edmunds from SAGE said, I paraphrase, we didn't have a clue what was going on in early March (the same interview when he talked about earlier lockdown would have saved live, but there was no evidence for doing so at the time?). I think there was plenty of useful information from around the world at that point- (as opposed to 'evidence'). As we discussed the other day, I'm not sure the right questions were being asked at that point.

[Digby]

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

Not everything, but if you have a ill-conceived idea made worse through development of the product you can claim will help you can probably make a lot of money right now, so swings and roundabouts

[Digby]

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

Not everything, but if you have a ill-conceived idea made worse through development of the product you can claim will help you can probably make a lot of money right now, so swings and roundabouts

About 5 minutes after noting that I was listening to More or Less, and credit where credit is due, Roche are certainly in there making some money

[Galfon]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

hope so - 'possible' the keyword here. (It's from WHO / unpublished data, conflcting with early research from China):

'...Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.'

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/

[Sandydragon]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

hope so - 'possible' the keyword here. (It's from WHO / unpublished data, conflcting with early research from China):

'...Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.'

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/

Some reports in the media today that the virus was hitting Chinese hospitals back in August.

I suspect that there will be many unresolved questions in the aftermath of this.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

[Son of Mathonwy]

Great site.

The I can't get the numbers to exactly agree to the ONS England and Wales numbers (which is slightly annoying), but they're basically the same - within ~1k.

What this also gives is the option of using the "adjusted five year average", ie "National five-year average data for each week and place, scaled down by a factor (XXX) to fit the observed total number of deaths nationally over the first 10 weeks of the year. This can be thought of as an 'expected' trend, given what was observed in the first 10 weeks of the year, and assuming the trend over time follows the five-year average. This baseline will produce larger excess deaths than the first method using unadjusted five-year average deaths."

This is useful because, the first 10 weeks of the year (ie those before any official Covid-19 deaths) had lower all-cause deaths than the 5-year average, suggesting that had there been no Covid-19, the deaths for the year would have been lower than that average. Adjusting for this adds about 12,000 deaths to the total, so around 71k deaths to 29 May (and that's only Eng & Wal). Obviously this method can be debated but it does suggest that the ~60k excess deaths is an underestimate of the Covid-19 impact.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

[Mellsblue]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

hope so - 'possible' the keyword here. (It's from WHO / unpublished data, conflcting with early research from China):

'...Such undocumented cases are still contagious and the study found them to be the source of most of the virus’s spread in China before the restrictions came in. Even though these people were only 55 per cent as contagious as people with symptoms, the study found that they were the source of 79 per cent of further infections, due to there being more of them, and the higher likelihood that they were out and about.'

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/

Some reports in the media today that the virus was hitting Chinese hospitals back in August.

I suspect that there will be many unresolved questions in the aftermath of this.

And that it’s been in the U.K. since Jan.....

[Mellsblue]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Bad news in my view. My great hope was that there was a shit ton of hidden transmission and therefore a large body of people who were unknowingly immune.

She/WHO has now backtracked.

[Which Tyler]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

Was retracted within a few hours wasn't it?

[morepork]

I think the horse has bolted chaps. It is what it is now. Individual common sense is that is left.


What a fucking mess.

[canta_brian]

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

[Puja]

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

Well, considering it's not just Oklahoma, but Tulsa, and also on the anniversary of the end of slavery in the USA, I can't imagine there'll be any racial implications that could mean it should be in the America thread. I'm sure Trump will be dignified, presidential, and able to stick on script.

Puja

[Digby]

Given Mr Miller writes/approves those scripts the hope they'd be dignified seems fanciful at best

[Donny osmond]

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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[Digby]

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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No intransigeance there noting it should be the intra coronavirus campaign rally for the intractable

[morepork]

I struggled to decide where to post this. On this thread it sounds like bad news. On the America thread it’s good maybe?

"post" coronavirus is a bit hopeful, no?

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It's fucking delusional. Florida and other "opened up" states are seeing a spike in cases, even accounting for the purging of non-partisan oversight

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/20 ... ails-show/