COVID19

[Sandydragon]

Apparently, we are now below the daily death total from pre-lockdown.

However, its a Monday and figures are always lower on a Monday so I can't get too excited.

Equally, I'm worried what recent mass events that have occurred since the lockdown was eased will result in. The R rate is reportedly above 1 in the North West and South West, which is really not good if correct.

I have a horrible feeling that we aren't out of the woods yet. Not even close.

[Galfon]

I have a horrible feeling that we aren't out of the woods yet. Not even close.

We appear to be stuck in a thicket...
been let down by the copse a few times too.

[canta_brian]

I have a horrible feeling that we aren't out of the woods yet. Not even close.

We appear to be stuck in a thicket...
been let down by the copse a few times too.

I think the government is stumped.

[Galfon]

I have a horrible feeling that we aren't out of the woods yet. Not even close.

We appear to be stuck in a thicket...
been let down by the copse a few times too.

I think the government is stumped.

seemed to lumber around at key moments.

[canta_brian]

We appear to be stuck in a thicket...
been let down by the copse a few times too.

I think the government is stumped.

seemed to lumber around at key moments.

Might be time to log off I think.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

The only positive thing I can see is that the cases and deaths are still falling, albeit very slowly. I thought the cases would have already started to rise again, now we're 4 weeks on from Boris telling everyone to go back to work. So maybe something is happening - there's more immunity out there than we think, social distancing (such as it is) is still having an effect, the weather is warmer, most of the really susceptible people have already died... something. I still think the numbers will pick up again, but ... well that's my scrap of positivity.

Agreed, the numbers will have to rocket for Boris to tighten things up again - it's herd immunity all the way in his head. I think he and Dom reckon that once Brazil (and maybe Mexico) exceed our absolute deaths, some people won't see him as the incompetent butcher of the old and infirm that he is.

Agreed about the app. These arseholes haven't missed a chance to divert work to the private sector - you can be sure your data will be going the same way, to help pay for the process.

[Donny osmond]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

It's fine, it'll all be fine don't worry.

I've no idea what a Pollyanna fuckwit is, so have at it.

At the risk of me being several kinds of fuckwit at once... you shouldn't be so worried about CV-19 because the forthcoming environmental apocalypse is going to make this little chapter look like a fucking picnic.

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[Galfon]

the forthcoming environmental apocalypse is going to make this little chapter look like a fucking picnic.

Yes it looks increasingly like the 'new normal' will not include many songbirds and rose-scented f@rts..

Locust swarms:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... iddle-east

Giant Asian Hornets:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/1 ... rch-dorset

'Asian hornets were brought across to Europe by mistake when a container of Chinese pottery holding the insects entered France in 2004.'
..Don't let DT get sight of this !...

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/anim ... ed-states/
(This one's added so the entomologist mentioned gets an acknowledgement..)

[Lizard]

Well NZ now has 0 active cases so we are fully out of lockdown. There will be crowds at the rugby, a jam at the bar afterwards and licking strangers is being positively encouraged. The border remains basically shut though, with strict quarantine for any exceptions.

[Sandydragon]

I genuinely don't know where we go from here. R is on the increase through the whole country and is at or near 1 having been as low as 0.4 in London. Current estimates are that about a fifth of new cases are actually being reported and confirmed by testing, so that's a shit ton of infected merrily spreading the virus. Simply ordering a further restrictive lockdown won't work because the public is already in "Fuck you" mode due in no small part to the government indicating that rules don't mean shit. In any event the government have no appetite for that whatsoever so it won't happen unless deaths really rocket. We have no contact tracing worth the name and even people like me who really care about this sort of thing won't download the government's app - I don't trust a fucking word those cunts say any more so I'm not about to hand over a load of data about me to them.

At this point a second spike seems absolutely inevitable to me, even if we keep the restrictions we have and they were being obeyed. I'm reasonably mentally robust and I can't bear the thought of another 3 months of this. However more mass death isn't exactly cheering either.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and that everything is going well. Though I can't promise not to call you a pollyanna fuckwit.

The only positive thing I can see is that the cases and deaths are still falling, albeit very slowly. I thought the cases would have already started to rise again, now we're 4 weeks on from Boris telling everyone to go back to work. So maybe something is happening - there's more immunity out there than we think, social distancing (such as it is) is still having an effect, the weather is warmer, most of the really susceptible people have already died... something. I still think the numbers will pick up again, but ... well that's my scrap of positivity.

Agreed, the numbers will have to rocket for Boris to tighten things up again - it's herd immunity all the way in his head. I think he and Dom reckon that once Brazil (and maybe Mexico) exceed our absolute deaths, some people won't see him as the incompetent butcher of the old and infirm that he is.

Agreed about the app. These arseholes haven't missed a chance to divert work to the private sector - you can be sure your data will be going the same way, to help pay for the process.

There was a report that some medical practitioners are beginning to notice that the severity of the illness is less in new patients. Perhaps some hope of a mutation that makes it less harmful, but that's really speculative.

Unfortunately the government has lost its credibility due to the Cummings affair and publicity stunts like the 14 day isolation for those entering the country.Lockdowns were always going to be difficult to maintain long term, but goodwill is evaporating fast and may only return if there is a severe second wave.

Looking at the details of the tracking app and I don't feel that there is a significant privacy issue here (we give far more info voluntarily to companies like Facebook (or most people do)) but again its a credibility thing.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Btw I heard today (by a secondary source) that medics are being told to gear up for a fairly imminent second wave and a lot more deaths and full morgues. Arse.

[Son of Mathonwy]

New ONS numbers today...
Up to 29 May, we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 38,593
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 50,107
So the total UK number is 30% higher than the government number.

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 9 Jun:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 40,883
All UK Covid-19 deaths (extrapolated): 53,080

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess.
Recently, the excess deaths per week have approximately equalled the "Covid-19 death certificate" ONS number,
So to estimate the excess deaths to 9 Jun I use the 29 May excess number and add the subsequent estimated ONS number:
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 29 May: 63,530
Estimated increase in all UK Covid-19 deaths from 29 May to 9 Jun: 53,080 - 50,107 = 2,973
Therefore:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19) to 9 Jun: 66,503
which is 63% higher than the government number.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Last week's prediction:

Prediction for 29 May (based on 22 May ONS + 29 May gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 38,593
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 51,014
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 64,324

Comparing with today's actual figures (for 29 May):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 38,593
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 51,014 actual: 50,107 actual/prediction: -1.8%
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 64,324 actual: 63,530 actual/prediction: -1.3%

For next week:
Prediction for 5 Jun (based on 29 May ONS + 5 Jun gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 40,261
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 52,273
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 65,696

[Digby]

Btw I heard today (by a secondary source) that medics are being told to gear up for a fairly imminent second wave and a lot more deaths and full morgues. Arse.

Don't worry, they've cancelled the full partial openings of schools (something that never looked possible to begin with)

[morepork]

Full partial.


Textbook.

[Galfon]

Precursor to Partial Full, moving towards Full Full.

[Stom]

Precursor to Partial Full, moving towards Full Full.

You missed out partial full partial and partial partial full

[morepork]

This is how the Titanic sank isn't it?

[Sandydragon]

Btw I heard today (by a secondary source) that medics are being told to gear up for a fairly imminent second wave and a lot more deaths and full morgues. Arse.

Don't worry, they've cancelled the full partial openings of schools (something that never looked possible to begin with)

Half a day per week per child is the aim at my wife’s school. Or was yesterday, it might have changed.

[Digby]

And to reiterate, you should only drive your child to school if you can't drive and please lick Barnard Castle on the way.

[Digby]

This is how the Titanic sank isn't it?

That was probably because the ship was already on fire (the coal stores anyway) and thus couldn't slow down even if someone did spot a glacier ahead, and that's in no way analogous, simply no underlying problems being ignored here

[Donny osmond]

the forthcoming environmental apocalypse is going to make this little chapter look like a fucking picnic.

Yes it looks increasingly like the 'new normal' will not include many songbirds and rose-scented f@rts..

Locust swarms:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... iddle-east

Giant Asian Hornets:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/1 ... rch-dorset

'Asian hornets were brought across to Europe by mistake when a container of Chinese pottery holding the insects entered France in 2004.'
..Don't let DT get sight of this !...

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/anim ... ed-states/
(This one's added so the entomologist mentioned gets an acknowledgement..)

https://www.conservation.org/blog/racia ... ave-missed

[emoji2957][emoji3061][emoji3062][emoji85][emoji86][emoji87]

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[Donny osmond]

In possible good news???

https://thehill.com/homenews/coronaviru ... -very-rare

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[Galfon]

3-stories-you-may-have-missed

picked a few under the radar, obvs...the global extinction topic possibly deserving of it's own thread.

meanwhile...
things don't seem as bad looking forward here, unless recent slackenings deliver another wave..
Ft.com rolling avg figures, daily to jun 8 >>
( Asia, ME & Afr all on the up - the focus on deaths will soon be moving east..
Swe still an anomaly in Eur. re. rise in cases )

Amer:
US 21508 (steady)
Mex 3810 (incr.)

S.Amer:
Bra 25273 (peaking)
Chil 4812
Per 4237 (peaked)
Col 1407
Arg 849

Eur:
Rus 8826 (steady)
UK 1575 (5066 early may)
Swe 1046

Afr:
SA 2229
Egy 1299

M.East:
Iran 2770 (2nd wave)
SauA 2592
Qat 1675
Iraq 945

Asia:
Ind 9699 (incr.)
Pak 4560
Ban 2659
Afg 738