COVID19

[Sandydragon]

Absolutely. And I forgot to mention the unnecessary, repeated spreading of the virus between constituency and London.

I'm wondering how long it will be before one of our older MPs collapses from being made to stand for so long to do something which could take a split second with appropriate technology. JRM is a complete tool.

That said, I think Labour should force divisions for every vote, to push this ridiculous system to breaking point.

Even The Times editorial is critical of this system, which speaks volumes.

[Digby]

Luckily track and trace might be running soon, though Rome wasn't built in a day, so you can't just rush these things. Some of the ideas they have in their contact model I wouldn't expect from students at GCSE level, certainly not from anyone familiar with the concept of fraud which the government should be.

Listening to Dr Jenny Harries make the comment that when contacted by track and trace despite there being no security measures, and despite there being no number you can call back on, people contacted would know they'd been contacted by official persons because the number they'd be dialling out on was a published number (all the better too clone you with my dear) and you'd also know from talking to them. Which reminded by of the Book or Mormon which at the end concludes by saying if you know in your heart what you've just read is true then that's proof god exists. Now it's not altogether Jenny Harries' fault she got stuck with a security question, but feck me a bad fraudster should be able to make money out of this system, and that's pretty much the only accomplishment I can see so far for track and trace.

[morepork]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

[Puja]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

You were previously under the impression that our response to this crisis wasn't a colossal turd fire?

.
.
.

...why?!

Puja

[morepork]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

You were previously under the impression that our response to this crisis wasn't a colossal turd fire?

.
.
.

...why?!

Puja

You know where I live......logistical Turd Fire Central...

[Puja]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

You were previously under the impression that our response to this crisis wasn't a colossal turd fire?

.
.
.

...why?!

Puja

You know where I live......logistical Turd Fire Central...

I mean, we're nowhere near as bad as America, but we've still got massive problems.

Deja vu; I feel like I've said that recently on a different topic...

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

You were previously under the impression that our response to this crisis wasn't a colossal turd fire?

.
.
.

...why?!

Puja

You know where I live......logistical Turd Fire Central...

Yeah, well over here contact tracing was just something that foreigners do till a week ago, and we're still waiting for border checks (of any sort).

[Banquo]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

Gubment here has presided over the creation and sustainment of (at least) two centralised monoliths whose desire to micromanage stems from ar5e covering on serial incompetence over decades- the frontline in the NHS is generally great in spite of the organisation that employs them, and generally the public has historically received decent treatment free of charge (well apart from tax). PHE are pretty comedic tbh. Fundamental reform alongside sustained and sustainable funding is needed, and whilst it seems almost impossible, the future structures and funding needs taking our of political cycles, if not out of politicians hands completely. You wouldn't start from here, both in timing and in what already exists (eg PFI's, GP contracts, huge numbers of middle management (and the army of MBA's though a lot are internally qualified ones), broken supply chain, a ridiculous property portfolio, ageing infrastructure where not replaced by madly expensive PFI funded resources/white elephants etc) . The current Gubment failed to realise that it presided over something unfit for purpose, certainly for what's happened since Feb. To be clear, this is not excusing the current govt at all- they've compounded everything, pretty much. The only reasonable claim is that the NHS hasn't been swamped- but still with tens of thousands of lives directly lost and multi-thousands more indirectly. Along with the populace, this crisis has brought out the best, and highlighted the worst.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

Gubment here has presided over the creation and sustainment of (at least) two centralised monoliths whose desire to micromanage stems from ar5e covering on serial incompetence over decades- the frontline in the NHS is generally great in spite of the organisation that employs them, and generally the public has historically received decent treatment free of charge (well apart from tax). PHE are pretty comedic tbh. Fundamental reform alongside sustained and sustainable funding is needed, and whilst it seems almost impossible, the future structures and funding needs taking our of political cycles, if not out of politicians hands completely. You wouldn't start from here, both in timing and in what already exists (eg PFI's, GP contracts, huge numbers of middle management (and the army of MBA's though a lot are internally qualified ones), broken supply chain, a ridiculous property portfolio, ageing infrastructure where not replaced by madly expensive PFI funded resources/white elephants etc) . The current Gubment failed to realise that it presided over something unfit for purpose, certainly for what's happened since Feb. To be clear, this is not excusing the current govt at all- they've compounded everything, pretty much. The only reasonable claim is that the NHS hasn't been swamped- but still with tens of thousands of lives directly lost and multi-thousands more indirectly. Along with the populace, this crisis has brought out the best, and highlighted the worst.

The Conservatives have been in charge for the last decade. They are responsible for the state the NHS, even more so for PHE, which thay created in 2013.

The current government didn't fail "to realise that it presided over something not fit for purpose", it eroded and cut and sold off the health system until it was in that state (whether by intent or by design). There's no one else to blame.

[Banquo]

Jared Kushner and his army of millennial MBA grads would be so proud of the bumbling efforts across the pond. I had no idea it was also so fucked up on the public health front over there.

Gubment here has presided over the creation and sustainment of (at least) two centralised monoliths whose desire to micromanage stems from ar5e covering on serial incompetence over decades- the frontline in the NHS is generally great in spite of the organisation that employs them, and generally the public has historically received decent treatment free of charge (well apart from tax). PHE are pretty comedic tbh. Fundamental reform alongside sustained and sustainable funding is needed, and whilst it seems almost impossible, the future structures and funding needs taking our of political cycles, if not out of politicians hands completely. You wouldn't start from here, both in timing and in what already exists (eg PFI's, GP contracts, huge numbers of middle management (and the army of MBA's though a lot are internally qualified ones), broken supply chain, a ridiculous property portfolio, ageing infrastructure where not replaced by madly expensive PFI funded resources/white elephants etc) . The current Gubment failed to realise that it presided over something unfit for purpose, certainly for what's happened since Feb. To be clear, this is not excusing the current govt at all- they've compounded everything, pretty much. The only reasonable claim is that the NHS hasn't been swamped- but still with tens of thousands of lives directly lost and multi-thousands more indirectly. Along with the populace, this crisis has brought out the best, and highlighted the worst.

The Conservatives have been in charge for the last decade. They are responsible for the state the NHS, even more so for PHE, which thay created in 2013.

The current government didn't fail "to realise that it presided over something not fit for purpose", it eroded and cut and sold off the health system until it was in that state (whether by intent or by design). There's no one else to blame.

Not sure where you read I was blaming anyone else. You are a tad trigger happy.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Gubment here has presided over the creation and sustainment of (at least) two centralised monoliths whose desire to micromanage stems from ar5e covering on serial incompetence over decades- the frontline in the NHS is generally great in spite of the organisation that employs them, and generally the public has historically received decent treatment free of charge (well apart from tax). PHE are pretty comedic tbh. Fundamental reform alongside sustained and sustainable funding is needed, and whilst it seems almost impossible, the future structures and funding needs taking our of political cycles, if not out of politicians hands completely. You wouldn't start from here, both in timing and in what already exists (eg PFI's, GP contracts, huge numbers of middle management (and the army of MBA's though a lot are internally qualified ones), broken supply chain, a ridiculous property portfolio, ageing infrastructure where not replaced by madly expensive PFI funded resources/white elephants etc) . The current Gubment failed to realise that it presided over something unfit for purpose, certainly for what's happened since Feb. To be clear, this is not excusing the current govt at all- they've compounded everything, pretty much. The only reasonable claim is that the NHS hasn't been swamped- but still with tens of thousands of lives directly lost and multi-thousands more indirectly. Along with the populace, this crisis has brought out the best, and highlighted the worst.

The Conservatives have been in charge for the last decade. They are responsible for the state the NHS, even more so for PHE, which thay created in 2013.

The current government didn't fail "to realise that it presided over something not fit for purpose", it eroded and cut and sold off the health system until it was in that state (whether by intent or by design). There's no one else to blame.

Not sure where you read I was blaming anyone else. You are a tad trigger happy.

Good to see such agreement on this issue

[Banquo]

The Conservatives have been in charge for the last decade. They are responsible for the state the NHS, even more so for PHE, which thay created in 2013.

The current government didn't fail "to realise that it presided over something not fit for purpose", it eroded and cut and sold off the health system until it was in that state (whether by intent or by design). There's no one else to blame.

Not sure where you read I was blaming anyone else. You are a tad trigger happy.

Good to see such agreement on this issue

I don't necessarily agree with your diagnosis, but I certainly agree on accountability; all of SAGE, NHSE and PHE are agents of government, and as such their 'creations'.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Not sure where you read I was blaming anyone else. You are a tad trigger happy.

Good to see such agreement on this issue

I don't necessarily agree with your diagnosis, but I certainly agree on accountability; all of SAGE, NHSE and PHE are agents of government, and as such their 'creations'.

The government is fully responsible. I agree.

[Banquo]

Good to see such agreement on this issue

I don't necessarily agree with your diagnosis, but I certainly agree on accountability; all of SAGE, NHSE and PHE are agents of government, and as such their 'creations'.

The government is fully responsible. I agree.

I prefer accountable, but that's a tad semantic.

[Digby]

We will not get through this without semantics

[Eugene Wrayburn]

SAGE is wholly appointed by the government isn't it? In which case the absence of any relevant expertise is a bit of a schoolboy error on their part.

I think largely the problem has been that the government has ignored scientific advice or changed aspects of it without asking how that might affect things. For example there were reports that HMG sent 3 possible models for opening schools to SAGE and asked them to model the results. They got that but went for the unmodeled camel that we currently have

[Banquo]

SAGE is wholly appointed by the government isn't it? In which case the absence of any relevant expertise is a bit of a schoolboy error on their part.

I think largely the problem has been that the government has ignored scientific advice or changed aspects of it without asking how that might affect things. For example there were reports that HMG sent 3 possible models for opening schools to SAGE and asked them to model the results. They got that but went for the unmodeled camel that we currently have

Yep, as per my previous point. That said, looking at the SAGE membership for Covid 19, which is published now, I don't think a lack of (apparent) expertise is the issue though- plenty of all the right sounding officials, scientists, acedemics. To your point, slightly, I don't think anyone knew what the right questions to ask were (ie if we do x, what would happen)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... sub-groups

I've just read the minutes of the 13th March meeting- its an eye opener for me, in that there is zero sense of anything being about to go horribly wrong.

I did read a quote saying an expert is only as good as the question they are asked- I guess you'd definitely have a view on that?

[Sandydragon]

SAGE is wholly appointed by the government isn't it? In which case the absence of any relevant expertise is a bit of a schoolboy error on their part.

I think largely the problem has been that the government has ignored scientific advice or changed aspects of it without asking how that might affect things. For example there were reports that HMG sent 3 possible models for opening schools to SAGE and asked them to model the results. They got that but went for the unmodeled camel that we currently have

Yep, as per my previous point. That said, looking at the SAGE membership for Covid 19, which is published now, I don't think a lack of (apparent) expertise is the issue though- plenty of all the right sounding officials, scientists, acedemics. To your point, slightly, I don't think anyone knew what the right questions to ask were (ie if we do x, what would happen)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... sub-groups

I've just read the minutes of the 13th March meeting- its an eye opener for me, in that there is zero sense of anything being about to go horribly wrong.

I did read a quote saying an expert is only as good as the question they are asked- I guess you'd definitely have a view on that?

Do you have a link for those minutes?

This still feels a lot like the politicians and scientists were expecting a version of the flu and modelled against that. Despite a long list of scientists on board, Its odd that we were so out of step with other countries (except Sweden) initially in our response. It would be enlightening to know what international discussion was occurring at this time.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

SAGE is wholly appointed by the government isn't it? In which case the absence of any relevant expertise is a bit of a schoolboy error on their part.

I think largely the problem has been that the government has ignored scientific advice or changed aspects of it without asking how that might affect things. For example there were reports that HMG sent 3 possible models for opening schools to SAGE and asked them to model the results. They got that but went for the unmodeled camel that we currently have

Yep, as per my previous point. That said, looking at the SAGE membership for Covid 19, which is published now, I don't think a lack of (apparent) expertise is the issue though- plenty of all the right sounding officials, scientists, acedemics. To your point, slightly, I don't think anyone knew what the right questions to ask were (ie if we do x, what would happen)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... sub-groups

I've just read the minutes of the 13th March meeting- its an eye opener for me, in that there is zero sense of anything being about to go horribly wrong.

I did read a quote saying an expert is only as good as the question they are asked- I guess you'd definitely have a view on that?

I've spent a career dealing with experts, particularly scientific ones and it's absolutely true. A while ago I was lamenting the absence of scientists amongst the government because they just wouldn't have a clue.

The problem with scientists is that all too often they don't understand what normal people don't know - which tends to be almost everything. The key is getting them to explain in words of one syllable and not being in awe of either jargon or brilliance. The great joy of science is that it can almost always be broken down into simple things and if you ask the right questions the scientists are very helpful. In this case it just needed "what did South Korea get right that Italy got wrong" or "why didn't the south koreans do what we're planning to do".

[Son of Mathonwy]

I don't necessarily agree with your diagnosis, but I certainly agree on accountability; all of SAGE, NHSE and PHE are agents of government, and as such their 'creations'.

The government is fully responsible. I agree.

I prefer accountable, but that's a tad semantic.

Ah, let's not get hung up on semantics when I'm trying so hard to agree with you.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The UK went ahead of Spain in the per capita deaths today, based on the (underestimated) official deaths. So, ignoring tiny San Marino and Andorra, there's only Belgium ahead of us.

In the rolling 7-day average deaths, Sweden leads, then Brazil, then UK, then Peru ... all jostling for position.

[Sandydragon]

Interesting.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.c ... 5a9ef8061f

[Sandydragon]

The UK went ahead of Spain in the per capita deaths today, based on the (underestimated) official deaths. So, ignoring tiny San Marino and Andorra, there's only Belgium ahead of us.

In the rolling 7-day average deaths, Sweden leads, then Brazil, then UK, then Peru ... all jostling for position.

I Notice that the usual suspects on the Times comments section have finally shut up about how we should be following Sweden.

[Galfon]

UK also slipping down the sdra table (totals, to 2 jun) - US, UK, Swe on downward trends.
Ind set to overtake us soon.

1. US 1014
2. Bra 955
3. Mex 358
4. UK 285
5. Ind 204
6. Rus 165

(Swe 49)

Meanwhile Cabinet minister Sharma (52) taken unwell and off to get tested - it does beg the question..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52910303

[Banquo]

SAGE is wholly appointed by the government isn't it? In which case the absence of any relevant expertise is a bit of a schoolboy error on their part.

I think largely the problem has been that the government has ignored scientific advice or changed aspects of it without asking how that might affect things. For example there were reports that HMG sent 3 possible models for opening schools to SAGE and asked them to model the results. They got that but went for the unmodeled camel that we currently have

Yep, as per my previous point. That said, looking at the SAGE membership for Covid 19, which is published now, I don't think a lack of (apparent) expertise is the issue though- plenty of all the right sounding officials, scientists, acedemics. To your point, slightly, I don't think anyone knew what the right questions to ask were (ie if we do x, what would happen)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... sub-groups

I've just read the minutes of the 13th March meeting- its an eye opener for me, in that there is zero sense of anything being about to go horribly wrong.

I did read a quote saying an expert is only as good as the question they are asked- I guess you'd definitely have a view on that?

Do you have a link for those minutes?

This still feels a lot like the politicians and scientists were expecting a version of the flu and modelled against that. Despite a long list of scientists on board, Its odd that we were so out of step with other countries (except Sweden) initially in our response. It would be enlightening to know what international discussion was occurring at this time.

Its linked from that site


but here you go
https://www.gov.uk/search/transparency- ... mergencies