COVID19

[Son of Mathonwy]

Another proud day for the UK government, though with Cummings in place they will have seen this coming:

The UK's statistics watchdog has criticised the government over its handling of coronavirus testing data. The chairman of the UK Statistics Authority says presentation of figures appeared to be aimed at showing "the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding". Sir David Norgrove has written to Health Secretary Matt Hancock saying the information is "far from complete".

Story taken from the Beeb site - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52889103

Yep, pretty shameless ambiguity, spinning and exaggerating, no great surprise from the team that gave us the "50,000 extra nurses" in the GE campaign.

So blatant that Norgrove has criticised them for the second time, his first attempt having achieved nothing.

[Son of Mathonwy]

New numbers from the ONS:
Up to 22 May, we have:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 36,393
All UK Covid-19 deaths (ONS number): 48,106
So the total UK number is 32% higher than the government number.

Assuming this ratio holds to date, we have as of 1 Jun:
Positive test UK Covid-19 deaths: 39,045
All UK Covid-19 deaths (extrapolated): 51,612

Ultimately a more important number is the excess deaths for any cause, if we assume Covid-19 is the main driver of the excess.
Recently, the excess deaths per week have approximately equalled the "Covid-19 death certificate" ONS number,
So to estimate the excess deaths to 1 Jun I'll use the 22 May excess number and add the subsequent estimated ONS number:
Excess deaths compared with 5 year average to 22 May: 61,727
Estimated increase in all UK Covid-19 deaths from 22 May to 1 Jun: 51,612 - 48,106 = 3,506
Therefore:
All UK excess deaths (presumably due to Covid-19) to 1 Jun: 65,233
which is 67% higher than the government number.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Last week's prediction:

Prediction for 22 May (based on 15 May ONS + 22 May gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 36,393
All UK, deaths involving COVID-19: prediction: 48,417
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 63,311

Comparing with today's actual figures (for 22 May):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 36,393
All UK, deaths involving COVID-19: prediction: 48,417 actual: 48,106 actual/prediction: -0.6%
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 63,311 actual: 61,727 actual/prediction: -2.6%

For next week:
Prediction for 29 May (based on 22 May ONS + 29 May gov numbers):
All UK, positive tests only: actual = 38,593
All UK, deaths involving Covid-19: prediction: 51,014
All UK, excess deaths: prediction: 64,324

[Donny osmond]

If you need a jaw dropping moment today, or least one that doesn't involve police violence in America, try this for size.

The result of an FOI request that was looking for written communications between Sturgeon and her medical advisors between the end of Jan and 2nd week of March...

Ggnnnnnnfffckin tech doesn't work!! Won't let me upload a screenshot

Anyway, it turns out there is not one single briefing paper to Sturgeon from either the Chief Medical Officer nor the National Clinical Director between the dates of 24th Jan and 9th March.

[Digby]

Are Nicola or her staff being far too literal in responding to that FOI request? Was it from a deputy, was it addressed to the party/government rather than Nicola, was the briefing given via the medium of interpretative dance rather than a written document? There must be something, they surely can't just have been working off wider UK advice?

[Donny osmond]

Are Nicola or her staff being far too literal in responding to that FOI request? Was it from a deputy, was it addressed to the party/government rather than Nicola, was the briefing given via the medium of interpretative dance rather than a written document? There must be something, they surely can't just have been working off wider UK advice?

It is possible. Here the story in the Herald, it ends with an excuse from an SNP spokesperson who uses an... erm... *slightly* weird sounding reason. The sort that is as plausible as DCs eye exam.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/184 ... id-months/

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Digby]

Are Nicola or her staff being far too literal in responding to that FOI request? Was it from a deputy, was it addressed to the party/government rather than Nicola, was the briefing given via the medium of interpretative dance rather than a written document? There must be something, they surely can't just have been working off wider UK advice?

It is possible. Here the story in the Herald, it ends with an excuse from an SNP spokesperson who uses an... erm... *slightly* weird sounding reason. The sort that is as plausible as DCs eye exam.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/184 ... id-months/

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Either they've really fecked up, or they're going to the Bill Clinton version of truth which as Cummings illustrated is so dramatically inappropriate at this time they've really fecked up

[Galfon]

Most odd - it's dangerous times, life and death - 'work from home if you can', 'use technology to do business'...
unless you're an MP willing to vote, in which case you now need to be physically present in Parliament.
....queues around the block, 3 hours per vote, distancing questionnable, those shielding or isolating don't count, long distance travelling now essential.
Almost Pythonesque, so there must be a reason above the petty or londoncentric that isn't obvious.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52895430

[Digby]

It's just very weird why we even need to try and have Parliament sit, vote, speak with people actually in the Commons as things stand

[Son of Mathonwy]

Most odd - it's dangerous times, life and death - 'work from home if you can', 'use technology to do business'...
unless you're an MP willing to vote, in which case you now need to be physically present in Parliament.
....queues around the block, 3 hours per vote, distancing questionnable, those shielding or isolating don't count, long distance travelling now essential.
Almost Pythonesque, so there must be a reason above the petty or londoncentric that isn't obvious.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52895430

Sadly, the reason is completely obvious.

It's no surprise to see this government putting momentary political advantage ahead of 1) a coherent message which includes "work from home if you can" and 2) the lives of MPs, civil servants, Westminster staff and all their families.

[Sandydragon]

Most odd - it's dangerous times, life and death - 'work from home if you can', 'use technology to do business'...
unless you're an MP willing to vote, in which case you now need to be physically present in Parliament.
....queues around the block, 3 hours per vote, distancing questionnable, those shielding or isolating don't count, long distance travelling now essential.
Almost Pythonesque, so there must be a reason above the petty or londoncentric that isn't obvious.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52895430

Sadly, the reason is completely obvious.

It's no surprise to see this government putting momentary political advantage ahead of 1) a coherent message which includes "work from home if you can" and 2) the lives of MPs, civil servants, Westminster staff and all their families.

This is fucking crazy. I suspect the main reason is that without the baying mob to back him up,Boris is looking a bit lightweight.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Are Nicola or her staff being far too literal in responding to that FOI request? Was it from a deputy, was it addressed to the party/government rather than Nicola, was the briefing given via the medium of interpretative dance rather than a written document? There must be something, they surely can't just have been working off wider UK advice?

It's a surprisingly narrow FoI request and the spokesperson's response suggests they went fully literal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them running off the UK advice at this point though. A verbal briefing along the lines of "we don't have any reason to think the UK Govt have got this wrong" might not be inappropriate. Though obviously the UK government had screwed up massively.

[Digby]

Are Nicola or her staff being far too literal in responding to that FOI request? Was it from a deputy, was it addressed to the party/government rather than Nicola, was the briefing given via the medium of interpretative dance rather than a written document? There must be something, they surely can't just have been working off wider UK advice?

It's a surprisingly narrow FoI request and the spokesperson's response suggests they went fully literal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them running off the UK advice at this point though. A verbal briefing along the lines of "we don't have any reason to think the UK Govt have got this wrong" might not be inappropriate. Though obviously the UK government had screwed up massively.

I'd expect them to be using the UK briefings, I just wouldn't only expect that. They do owe an explanation though, even if it's damning

[Mellsblue]

The more scrutiny put on Scot govt’s handling of COVID the more you see they have been at least as bad as London. Sturgeon’s admission that she didn’t realise COVID could be transmitted during the early asymptotic stage is a particular lowlight.

[fivepointer]

The Scottish and Welsh Govts havent exactly covered themselves in glory. The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts. Mind you, i'd take Sturgeon and Drakeford in a heartbeat over Johnson.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

[Mellsblue]

The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

Care homes feck ups seem to be the case across most with higher fatalities. The hardest hit countries seem to have managed to completely screw both the young and the old.
Issues with SAGE have been apparent from the start and only seem to multiply the more you read. Other than front line staff - NHS, supermarkets, community care etc - I don’t see anybody coming out of the enquiry even moderately well.

[Banquo]

The Scottish and Welsh Govts havent exactly covered themselves in glory. The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts. Mind you, i'd take Sturgeon and Drakeford in a heartbeat over Johnson.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

I was wondering when the SAGE elephant in the room would arise. They are agents of and appointed by govt, so govt is accountable, but you have to wonder don’t you? Frankly all the actors in this very bad play should be looking at themselves.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Most odd - it's dangerous times, life and death - 'work from home if you can', 'use technology to do business'...
unless you're an MP willing to vote, in which case you now need to be physically present in Parliament.
....queues around the block, 3 hours per vote, distancing questionnable, those shielding or isolating don't count, long distance travelling now essential.
Almost Pythonesque, so there must be a reason above the petty or londoncentric that isn't obvious.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52895430

Sadly, the reason is completely obvious.

It's no surprise to see this government putting momentary political advantage ahead of 1) a coherent message which includes "work from home if you can" and 2) the lives of MPs, civil servants, Westminster staff and all their families.

This is fucking crazy. I suspect the main reason is that without the baying mob to back him up,Boris is looking a bit lightweight.

Absolutely. And I forgot to mention the unnecessary, repeated spreading of the virus between constituency and London.

[Sandydragon]

Sadly, the reason is completely obvious.

It's no surprise to see this government putting momentary political advantage ahead of 1) a coherent message which includes "work from home if you can" and 2) the lives of MPs, civil servants, Westminster staff and all their families.

This is fucking crazy. I suspect the main reason is that without the baying mob to back him up,Boris is looking a bit lightweight.

Absolutely. And I forgot to mention the unnecessary, repeated spreading of the virus between constituency and London.

I'm wondering how long it will be before one of our older MPs collapses from being made to stand for so long to do something which could take a split second with appropriate technology. JRM is a complete tool.

[Sandydragon]

The Scottish and Welsh Govts havent exactly covered themselves in glory. The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts. Mind you, i'd take Sturgeon and Drakeford in a heartbeat over Johnson.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

Spoke to my parents on Sunday (still live in Newport) and they had nothing but scorn for Drakeford. The issue of England being perceived to enjoy greater freedom is grating a few people.

[Sandydragon]

The Scottish and Welsh Govts havent exactly covered themselves in glory. The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts. Mind you, i'd take Sturgeon and Drakeford in a heartbeat over Johnson.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

I was wondering when the SAGE elephant in the room would arise. They are agents of and appointed by govt, so govt is accountable, but you have to wonder don’t you? Frankly all the actors in this very bad play should be looking at themselves.

There is definitely a need for a lessons learned process at the end of this one. Sadly, it will be seen as an opportunity to blame someone else so instead of honest appraisal and change, it will be an opportunity to pick another scapegoat and watching them suffer whilst keeping the shit off oneself. And of course the media will whip up everything into a sacking offence so that will only add to the potential politicking.

[Son of Mathonwy]

This is fucking crazy. I suspect the main reason is that without the baying mob to back him up,Boris is looking a bit lightweight.

Absolutely. And I forgot to mention the unnecessary, repeated spreading of the virus between constituency and London.

I'm wondering how long it will be before one of our older MPs collapses from being made to stand for so long to do something which could take a split second with appropriate technology. JRM is a complete tool.

That said, I think Labour should force divisions for every vote, to push this ridiculous system to breaking point.

[Banquo]

The Scottish and Welsh Govts havent exactly covered themselves in glory. The scandalous way in which care homes have been hung out to dry shames all the UK's Govts. Mind you, i'd take Sturgeon and Drakeford in a heartbeat over Johnson.
Serious questions being raised about the quality of the advice from SAGE in the early stages.
This is a good read - https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/01/ ... -strategy/
Quite a few other voices have been raised, querying the make up of the SAGE committee, particularly the lack of public health experts.

I was wondering when the SAGE elephant in the room would arise. They are agents of and appointed by govt, so govt is accountable, but you have to wonder don’t you? Frankly all the actors in this very bad play should be looking at themselves.

There is definitely a need for a lessons learned process at the end of this one. Sadly, it will be seen as an opportunity to blame someone else so instead of honest appraisal and change, it will be an opportunity to pick another scapegoat and watching them suffer whilst keeping the shit off oneself. And of course the media will whip up everything into a sacking offence so that will only add to the potential politicking.

absolutely. But clearly a number of bits of the jigsaw have not been fit for purpose, and my point is that one of them is almost certainly the current SAGE composition and even the experts themselves. None of that exculpates the govt.

[Digby]

I was wondering when the SAGE elephant in the room would arise. They are agents of and appointed by govt, so govt is accountable, but you have to wonder don’t you? Frankly all the actors in this very bad play should be looking at themselves.

There is definitely a need for a lessons learned process at the end of this one. Sadly, it will be seen as an opportunity to blame someone else so instead of honest appraisal and change, it will be an opportunity to pick another scapegoat and watching them suffer whilst keeping the shit off oneself. And of course the media will whip up everything into a sacking offence so that will only add to the potential politicking.

absolutely. But clearly a number of bits of the jigsaw have not been fit for purpose, and my point is that one of them is almost certainly the current SAGE composition and even the experts themselves. None of that exculpates the govt.

Sage has rather wilted in all this

[Galfon]

Sage has rather wilted in all this

..could be on borrowed Thyme.