COVID19

[Mellsblue]

Looking long term:
Sweden’s GDP rose by 0.1% in the first quarter of the year while Denmark’s shrank by 2.1%.

I wonder how that 2.2% difference plays out with life expectancy, poverty numbers, social care provision etc etc in the years to come. We’ve been told that such a drop in GDP over years, let alone one quarter, is an absolute disaster. I wonder how this hobbles Norway in comparison to their neighbour in the long term.
Again, I think lockdown is/was the correct decision for the U.K. but devils advocate and all that.

This is a long game.

Exactly what I’ve been saying for weeks, and exactly what I mean by saying ‘Looking long term‘.

[Mellsblue]

I’m sure the millions still alive will be even more delighted.

[Mellsblue]

I’m sure the millions still alive will be even more delighted.

Hmm, yeah, I wouldn't be so sure about that, when there's a clear generational divide in the response to the handling of the pandemic.

Not to mention significant criticism being caused by the belief that the government put the economy ahead of the citizens.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus ... oach-13727

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-strategy

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel ... 7cef07b6cc

Divisions and criticism, who’d have thought it in the era of consensus.
Again, again, I think lockdown was the correct decision but it’s not black and white and it’s not all about how many people die in the first two months.
Lockdown has caused irreparable harm to the education of millions of youngsters (as a teacher I’m sure you know the research on how much a day/week, let alone months, of missed education affects future prospects) and set back the careers and earnings of an entire generation. Yet, even a sh*tc*nt like me thinks lockdown was the correct move.

[Digby]

There do seem to be a number ignoring, for whatever reason, that even small % drops in the economy amongst other things spit out higher numbers of abuse across the board, higher rates of depression, higher rates of families losing their home, higher rates of suicide, and the influence that has is generational. Which I think is rather the point Mells was making, nor as per Mells is it to say Sweden has this right on the lockdown, nor even in the longer term on the economic front, we just don't know.

And whatever the right or more likely least worst decision that can be made is why on earth would we not want counter points to be made, addressing questions that challenge our positions is a healthy thing for anyone that's not a fundy

[Galfon]

Meanwhile, on the 7-day rolling average deaths, Sweden has surged into the lead again. Brazil and Peru have also edged ahead of us (they're much lower cumulatively, but are on an upward trajectory unlike most countries).

as much as it appears to drag in the UK, at least it's (overall) in the right diection.
Looking at the death chart:
-Still climbing steeply: Bra, Mex, Chil, Rus, Indi, Peru
-Steady upward trend: Indo, Egy, Pak, Col
-Worryingly on the up: SA, Phil, Alg, Sudan
-Notable spike: Austria, Hun
Some big populations are lurching towards the house of pain.

[Stom]

Meanwhile, on the 7-day rolling average deaths, Sweden has surged into the lead again. Brazil and Peru have also edged ahead of us (they're much lower cumulatively, but are on an upward trajectory unlike most countries).

as much as it appears to drag in the UK, at least it's (overall) in the right diection.
Looking at the death chart:
-Still climbing steeply: Bra, Mex, Chil, Rus, Indi, Peru
-Steady upward trend: Indo, Egy, Pak, Col
-Worryingly on the up: SA, Phil, Alg, Sudan
-Notable spike: Austria, Hun
Some big populations are lurching towards the house of pain.

Notable spike? What notable spike?

[morepork]

Brazil has fucked much of Latin and Central America thanks to their thundercunt of a leader. Leadership matters in times of crisis, and by fuck there will be some unassailable data to provide a metric for effective leadership when all is said and done.

[Mellsblue]

There do seem to be a number ignoring, for whatever reason, that even small % drops in the economy amongst other things spit out higher numbers of abuse across the board, higher rates of depression, higher rates of families losing their home, higher rates of suicide, and the influence that has is generational. Which I think is rather the point Mells was making, nor as per Mells is it to say Sweden has this right on the lockdown, nor even in the longer term on the economic front, we just don't know.

And whatever the right or more likely least worst decision that can be made is why on earth would we not want counter points to be made, addressing questions that challenge our positions is a healthy thing for anyone that's not a fundy

This.

[Digby]

Brazil has fucked much of Latin and Central America thanks to their thundercunt of a leader. Leadership matters in times of crisis, and by fuck there will be some unassailable data to provide a metric for effective leadership when all is said and done.

Bless your cottons

[Digby]

There do seem to be a number ignoring, for whatever reason, that even small % drops in the economy amongst other things spit out higher numbers of abuse across the board, higher rates of depression, higher rates of families losing their home, higher rates of suicide, and the influence that has is generational. Which I think is rather the point Mells was making, nor as per Mells is it to say Sweden has this right on the lockdown, nor even in the longer term on the economic front, we just don't know.

And whatever the right or more likely least worst decision that can be made is why on earth would we not want counter points to be made, addressing questions that challenge our positions is a healthy thing for anyone that's not a fundy

This.

Pretty rich coming from you, bud.

Brazil has fucked much of Latin and Central America thanks to their thundercunt of a leader. Leadership matters in times of crisis, and by fuck there will be some unassailable data to provide a metric for effective leadership when all is said and done.

Bless your cottons

There is a common language with countries that have bungled their response such as "herd immunity" or some variation chief among them, "schools!" and talk of how young people are fine - even though roughly 1 in 5 end up hospitalised (the last new case in NZ was a toddler, after all).

You were seemingly just laughing at Fox New reporters being crowded by protesters, and now you want to judge the actions of others as being unhelpful in an age of Covid. If you want to make a point at least manage to agree with yourself first.

[Galfon]

Nasal hygiene - it may save your life

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

(keeping ur hooter moist in autumn/winter was always good for keeping colds at bay, innit. )

[Galfon]

Notable spike: Austria, Hun
What notable spike?

Ok, leave 'Spike' for Aut, change it to 'Bump' for Hun..

Reading off FT Covid trajectory chart:
Austria peaked at 20 at d20, then steady decline to 1 at d60.. risen back to 5 at d66.

Hun peaked at 12 also d20, steady decline to 3 at d50 then double this d55. (7 day rolling average)

Very low numbers compared to other countries in the mincer, and the graph is logarithmic to best reflect disease pick-up in pandemic.
Could be a lag, and cases (new/admitted) are healthier; just noticable in backdrop of others going towards nil.
I think your safe.

[Stom]

Notable spike: Austria, Hun
What notable spike?

Ok, leave 'Spike' for Aut, change it to 'Bump' for Hun..

Reading off FT Covid trajectory chart:
Austria peaked at 20 at d20, then steady decline to 1 at d60.. risen back to 5 at d66.

Hun peaked at 12 also d20, steady decline to 3 at d50 then double this d55. (7 day rolling average)

Very low numbers compared to other countries in the mincer, and the graph is logarithmic to best reflect disease pick-up in pandemic.
Could be a lag, and cases (new/admitted) are healthier; just noticable in backdrop of others going towards nil.
I think your safe.

Yeah, when doubling means it stays single figures, that’s within standard deviation. Was out and about recently in a place pretty much untouched.

[Digby]

You were seemingly just laughing at Fox New reporters being crowded by protesters, and now you want to judge the actions of others as being unhelpful in an age of Covid. If you want to make a point at least manage to agree with yourself first.

Hm, yes, nothing to do with Mellsblue's craven hypocrisy when he does this shit:

There do seem to be a number ignoring, for whatever reason, that even small % drops in the economy amongst other things spit out higher numbers of abuse across the board, higher rates of depression, higher rates of families losing their home, higher rates of suicide, and the influence that has is generational. Which I think is rather the point Mells was making, nor as per Mells is it to say Sweden has this right on the lockdown, nor even in the longer term on the economic front, we just don't know.

And whatever the right or more likely least worst decision that can be made is why on earth would we not want counter points to be made, addressing questions that challenge our positions is a healthy thing for anyone that's not a fundy

This.

after doing exactly what you were criticising just a few pages ago?

I just going to assume the sun is well over the yardarm wherever your based, and there's nothing wrong with that, if nothing else it makes up for KK posting less

[Son of Mathonwy]

Notable spike: Austria, Hun
What notable spike?

Ok, leave 'Spike' for Aut, change it to 'Bump' for Hun..

Reading off FT Covid trajectory chart:
Austria peaked at 20 at d20, then steady decline to 1 at d60.. risen back to 5 at d66.

Hun peaked at 12 also d20, steady decline to 3 at d50 then double this d55. (7 day rolling average)

Very low numbers compared to other countries in the mincer, and the graph is logarithmic to best reflect disease pick-up in pandemic.
Could be a lag, and cases (new/admitted) are healthier; just noticable in backdrop of others going towards nil.
I think your safe.

Yeah, when doubling means it stays single figures, that’s within standard deviation. Was out and about recently in a place pretty much untouched.

Best to switch that FT graph to linear now.

There's no reason to use logarithmic at this point, it's just misleading.

[morepork]

Is this how a modern industrialised nation approaches science? By bowing to the illogical whims of evangelical "advisors"?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/w ... ts-wrapper

"The Trump administration with no advance notice removed warnings contained in guidance for the reopening of houses of worship that singing in choirs can spread the coronavirus."

"Earlier this month, the CDC issued a report warning about “superspreader” events where the coronavirus might be “highly transmissible in certain settings, including group singing events.” That report described a choir practice in Washington state in March at which one person ended up infecting 52 other people, including two who died."

Blind faith (and all that donated god-botherer money) is now driving the CDC. It is officially neutered. What a joke.

[Banquo]

Is this how a modern industrialised nation approaches science? By bowing to the illogical whims of evangelical "advisors"?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/w ... ts-wrapper

"The Trump administration with no advance notice removed warnings contained in guidance for the reopening of houses of worship that singing in choirs can spread the coronavirus."

"Earlier this month, the CDC issued a report warning about “superspreader” events where the coronavirus might be “highly transmissible in certain settings, including group singing events.” That report described a choir practice in Washington state in March at which one person ended up infecting 52 other people, including two who died."

Blind faith (and all that donated god-botherer money) is now driving the CDC. It is officially neutered. What a joke.

I also just heard that South Africa has allowed gatherings of up to 50 people, as long as its in a church.

[morepork]

Is this how a modern industrialised nation approaches science? By bowing to the illogical whims of evangelical "advisors"?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/w ... ts-wrapper

"The Trump administration with no advance notice removed warnings contained in guidance for the reopening of houses of worship that singing in choirs can spread the coronavirus."

"Earlier this month, the CDC issued a report warning about “superspreader” events where the coronavirus might be “highly transmissible in certain settings, including group singing events.” That report described a choir practice in Washington state in March at which one person ended up infecting 52 other people, including two who died."

Blind faith (and all that donated god-botherer money) is now driving the CDC. It is officially neutered. What a joke.

I also just heard that South Africa has allowed gatherings of up to 50 people, as long as its in a church.

Imagine them all packed in shoulder to shoulder, belting out aerosol pathogen as they sing jebus songs. Madness.

[Galfon]

Best to switch that FT graph to linear now.
There's no reason to use logarithmic at this point, it's just misleading.

There are some good reasons for logarithmic graphs in pandemics:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... mic-graph/
as long as they are used with that understanding.There are plenty of linear graphs also, so you can have it both ways..
There are so many variables at play here in scale, space and time so it's good to catch it in a wide view -
we can possibly follow SA's exponential growth in the next few weeks with an appropriate grimace...!

[Banquo]

Is this how a modern industrialised nation approaches science? By bowing to the illogical whims of evangelical "advisors"?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/w ... ts-wrapper

"The Trump administration with no advance notice removed warnings contained in guidance for the reopening of houses of worship that singing in choirs can spread the coronavirus."

"Earlier this month, the CDC issued a report warning about “superspreader” events where the coronavirus might be “highly transmissible in certain settings, including group singing events.” That report described a choir practice in Washington state in March at which one person ended up infecting 52 other people, including two who died."

Blind faith (and all that donated god-botherer money) is now driving the CDC. It is officially neutered. What a joke.

I also just heard that South Africa has allowed gatherings of up to 50 people, as long as its in a church.

Imagine them all packed in shoulder to shoulder, belting out aerosol pathogen as they sing jebus songs. Madness.

Indeed. God help us. Oh....

[Galfon]

India also has it's hands full - cases on the up, lock-down easing, efforts undermined by agents within..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rker-india

[Son of Mathonwy]

Best to switch that FT graph to linear now.
There's no reason to use logarithmic at this point, it's just misleading.

There are some good reasons for logarithmic graphs in pandemics:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... mic-graph/
as long as they are used with that understanding.There are plenty of linear graphs also, so you can have it both ways..
There are so many variables at play here in scale, space and time so it's good to catch it in a wide view -
we can possibly follow SA's exponential growth in the next few weeks with an appropriate grimace...!

Agreed, at early stages of the pandemic it makes some sense. But most countries aren't at that stage.
Even Brazil and Peru's numbers - increasing as they are - look pretty linear to me.

The fundamental problem with anything other than a linear scale is that it treats some deaths as more important than others.
In particular, the log (base 10) scale, suggests that the first death is as significant as the next 9, which are as significant as the next 90, which are as significant as the next 900, etc. which is a heavy price to pay, in terms of understanding. If a country is 10 times worse than another, I want it to look that way, not just 1 point higher on the graph.

If you understand the scale, that's fine, but how many really do? Even if 75% of readers understand how the scale works (which I doubt) that leaves an enormous number misled by the image.

[Galfon]

..Even if 75% of readers understand how the scale works (which I doubt) that leaves an enormous number misled by the image.

It depends who looks at it and what they are looking for. FT will hope/expect their readers are reasonably tuned in; I would be surprised if numbers reading this thread are that large and can make reasonable deductions from information on show ...remember it's GIGO and death reporting from regions with relatively loose health systems or high on state control are unlikely to be either accurate or transparent, perhaps.See your point though.

[Son of Mathonwy]

..Even if 75% of readers understand how the scale works (which I doubt) that leaves an enormous number misled by the image.

It depends who looks at it and what they are looking for. FT will hope/expect their readers are reasonably tuned in; I would be surprised if numbers reading this thread are that large and can make reasonable deductions from information on show ...remember it's GIGO and death reporting from regions with relatively loose health systems or high on state control are unlikely to be either accurate or transparent, perhaps.See your point though.

I appreciate that worrying about linear vs log graphs is a minority concern, though.

[Digby]

Another proud day for the UK government, though with Cummings in place they will have seen this coming:

The UK's statistics watchdog has criticised the government over its handling of coronavirus testing data. The chairman of the UK Statistics Authority says presentation of figures appeared to be aimed at showing "the largest possible number of tests, even at the expense of understanding". Sir David Norgrove has written to Health Secretary Matt Hancock saying the information is "far from complete".

Story taken from the Beeb site - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52889103