COVID19

[Mellsblue]

Dont get this. Its OK to lambast the Govt for lack of PPE but not to question how we've got into this situation because its banging on about things that have happened.
It's precisely because things weren't done that we face a PPE shortage, surely. Why wasn't Deighton appointed to deal specifically with this issue weeks ago. Govt must have known there would be a high demand for PPE over an extended period. Why haven't there been a far greater effort to utilise UK based manufacturers, who seem to have been largely ignored?
The time has come to put a stop to this "working day and night and straining every sinew" line. We expect Govt to be pulling out all the stops. That should be a given. The Govt has to deliver.

I’m not sure anyone has said you shouldn’t criticise the govt for lack of PPE. Though, there is also the point that some hospitals are hoarding.
The issue is everyone is rushing to say we have our strategy completely wrong yet we’re only at approx 20%, hopefully, of the way through this until a vaccine is developed and distributed, and and single figure % through the economic fallout and the myriad of issues that arise from that. This isn’t as simple as how many COVID deaths do you suffer in the first two months.
It’s also the issue that just using COVID deaths as the metric for ‘success’ is too crude. Partly because of the above but also because COVID doesn’t treat all pops the same. Ethnicity and age demos are key, pop density, pop movement, living arrangements are key. Different cultures will also react differently, ie the U.K. pop under reacted against modelling when the govt asked them to use their common sense and went further than anticipated when given clearer direction. Yet, all we have, so far, is country A has X deaths compared to Y & Z country therefore they’re doing better or worse.

For context, I don’t think the govt have covered themselves in glory. They underplayed this at the start, possibly based on being too optimistic and possibly based on the fact they were playing off a flu pandemic hymn sheet, and have been scrambling ever since.

[Digby]

Fair enough. Do it in black face then. That'll show them.

That would depend on context, if it's celebratory and for fun it doesn't bother me

Out of interest, are you black?

Puja

No, but to expand I'm not fussed about someone black using white makeup. I am a little concerned about the Michael Jackson approach to not having a black face, and I am concerned about the whitening lotions one founds around the world, not so common here but very common in places like India.

I have a massive problem with the idea someone owns their cultural heritage and others can't avail themselves of it. Whether that's in the arts, in technology, industry, sports... It's like some bastardised reverse hybrid version of the Tebbit Test. I was wondering what the closest I've come to cultural appropriation is, at least over a sustained a period, and on balance I think it would have come with wearing a Gi, mostly in karate but also some other martial arts, and for sure there are those who don't think that should be acceptable and that something like Karate should be limited to those from Japan, and then there are those who'd probably say ah, but Karate itself was like born from Kung Fu so the Japanese are only themselves cultural thieves

[Puja]

That would depend on context, if it's celebratory and for fun it doesn't bother me

Out of interest, are you black?

Puja

No, but to expand I'm not fussed about someone black using white makeup. I am a little concerned about the Michael Jackson approach to not having a black face, and I am concerned about the whitening lotions one founds around the world, not so common here but very common in places like India.

You're drastically missing the cultural context. Things like blackface aren't bad because people are being greedy about their cultural heritage and want to stop people from using them, they're bad because historically they have been used to be racist, to promote racist stereotypes, or at the very, very best to make a joke out of pretending not to be a privileged white person. If there was no history of slavery, segregation, racism, systematic abuse and persecution in the world, then it would just be makeup. However, there is, so it isn't.

Also, giving permission for white makeup to be used is a massive false equivalence. There's no history of black on white systemic racism (in any of the countries any of us hail from) - we are not the butt of the joke. In fact, as you've noted, there's cultures where people bleach and lighten their skin because whiteness is valued higher (hooray Empire) and to be whiter is to gain societal and social benefits.

Puja

[Stom]

I’m very conscious of my hay fever right now...

[morepork]

I’m very conscious of my hay fever right now...

You got a thermometer at home boss? If so keep a daily watch on your actual fever if you are worried.

[Stom]

I’m very conscious of my hay fever right now...

You got a thermometer at home boss? If so keep a daily watch on your actual fever if you are worried.

More that when I'm out, I'm worried I'm going to sneeze and everyone look at me like I'm the second coming of lucifer!

And my face is oh so damn itchy! Glad I'm at home 99% of the time so I can itch to my heart's content, lol.

[Which Tyler]

Covid 19.jpg

[canta_brian]

Covid 19.jpg

It will be interesting to see what the analysis suggests the non covid jump in deaths is down to. Is it undiagnosed/tested covid or is it a fair representation of how many lives are able to be saved by the NHS if they are not dealing with a pandemic.

[morepork]

Covid 19.jpg

It will be interesting to see what the analysis suggests the non covid jump in deaths is down to. Is it undiagnosed/tested covid or is it a fair representation of how many lives are able to be saved by the NHS if they are not dealing with a pandemic.

The second one is what matters right now. If there is an increased probability of mortality over historical data and Coronavirus is the primary variable in this increase (lock down/restricted socialising meaning less cars on the road/ less brawls in pubs etc), then, I mean fuck, do you need a neon sign?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Dont get this. Its OK to lambast the Govt for lack of PPE but not to question how we've got into this situation because its banging on about things that have happened.
It's precisely because things weren't done that we face a PPE shortage, surely. Why wasn't Deighton appointed to deal specifically with this issue weeks ago. Govt must have known there would be a high demand for PPE over an extended period. Why haven't there been a far greater effort to utilise UK based manufacturers, who seem to have been largely ignored?
The time has come to put a stop to this "working day and night and straining every sinew" line. We expect Govt to be pulling out all the stops. That should be a given. The Govt has to deliver.

I’m not sure anyone has said you shouldn’t criticise the govt for lack of PPE. Though, there is also the point that some hospitals are hoarding.
The issue is everyone is rushing to say we have our strategy completely wrong yet we’re only at approx 20%, hopefully, of the way through this until a vaccine is developed and distributed, and and single figure % through the economic fallout and the myriad of issues that arise from that. This isn’t as simple as how many COVID deaths do you suffer in the first two months.
It’s also the issue that just using COVID deaths as the metric for ‘success’ is too crude. Partly because of the above but also because COVID doesn’t treat all pops the same. Ethnicity and age demos are key, pop density, pop movement, living arrangements are key. Different cultures will also react differently, ie the U.K. pop under reacted against modelling when the govt asked them to use their common sense and went further than anticipated when given clearer direction. Yet, all we have, so far, is country A has X deaths compared to Y & Z country therefore they’re doing better or worse.

For context, I don’t think the govt have covered themselves in glory. They underplayed this at the start, possibly based on being too optimistic and possibly based on the fact they were playing off a flu pandemic hymn sheet, and have been scrambling ever since.

Actually that's utter shite. There have been careful and nuanced points made and I'm not sure a single person on this thread has made that point, never mind "all we've had".

[morepork]

Eugene the junk yard dog!

[Mellsblue]

Dont get this. Its OK to lambast the Govt for lack of PPE but not to question how we've got into this situation because its banging on about things that have happened.
It's precisely because things weren't done that we face a PPE shortage, surely. Why wasn't Deighton appointed to deal specifically with this issue weeks ago. Govt must have known there would be a high demand for PPE over an extended period. Why haven't there been a far greater effort to utilise UK based manufacturers, who seem to have been largely ignored?
The time has come to put a stop to this "working day and night and straining every sinew" line. We expect Govt to be pulling out all the stops. That should be a given. The Govt has to deliver.

I’m not sure anyone has said you shouldn’t criticise the govt for lack of PPE. Though, there is also the point that some hospitals are hoarding.
The issue is everyone is rushing to say we have our strategy completely wrong yet we’re only at approx 20%, hopefully, of the way through this until a vaccine is developed and distributed, and and single figure % through the economic fallout and the myriad of issues that arise from that. This isn’t as simple as how many COVID deaths do you suffer in the first two months.
It’s also the issue that just using COVID deaths as the metric for ‘success’ is too crude. Partly because of the above but also because COVID doesn’t treat all pops the same. Ethnicity and age demos are key, pop density, pop movement, living arrangements are key. Different cultures will also react differently, ie the U.K. pop under reacted against modelling when the govt asked them to use their common sense and went further than anticipated when given clearer direction. Yet, all we have, so far, is country A has X deaths compared to Y & Z country therefore they’re doing better or worse.

For context, I don’t think the govt have covered themselves in glory. They underplayed this at the start, possibly based on being too optimistic and possibly based on the fact they were playing off a flu pandemic hymn sheet, and have been scrambling ever since.

Actually that's utter shite. There have been careful and nuanced points made and I'm not sure a single person on this thread has made that point, never mind "all we've had".

It’s all it’s boiled down to but whatever you want to think.

[Which Tyler]

The second one is what matters right now. If there is an increased probability of mortality over historical data and Coronavirus is the primary variable in this increase (lock down/restricted socialising meaning less cars on the road/ less brawls in pubs etc), then, I mean fuck, do you need a neon sign?

Yup, and most of them will be the second - they're still deaths caused by Covid, even though Covid wasn't the "cause of death".
There are people not wanting to bother their GP about that mole, or a difficulty peeing, who would normally go get seen.
There are people too scared to go to a GP / hospital in case they contract Covid.
There are people dying before the ambulance gets there, or the ambulance gets there. But there's no ITU bed for them.
There are people who'd normally see ANOther therapist who might pick up a warning sign.
There's increased domestic abuse, and suicide.
Etc etc.

Of course, this will be balanced against fewer traffic accidents and alcohol related trauma / poisoning etc.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter. They're deaths that wouldn't have happened if Covid wasn't with us. IMO, it's the most important figure for analysing the impact of COVID.

FTR, for week 15, the 5-year average was around 10,520. The 2020 figure was 18,516. 6,213 had Covid on the death certificate (whether cause of death, or incidental).
With the mild winter, we'd been running below average before Covid struck.

[Son of Mathonwy]

We can always count on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg to hold the government to account:

As we have discussed here before, it will be a long time - perhaps years rather than months - before a reasoned consensus can be reached about which countries took the best approaches to this and which made the most egregious mistakes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52358676

That's tough journalism for you.

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

[Sandydragon]

We can always count on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg to hold the government to account:

As we have discussed here before, it will be a long time - perhaps years rather than months - before a reasoned consensus can be reached about which countries took the best approaches to this and which made the most egregious mistakes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52358676

That's tough journalism for you.

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.

[Sandydragon]

Dont get this. Its OK to lambast the Govt for lack of PPE but not to question how we've got into this situation because its banging on about things that have happened.
It's precisely because things weren't done that we face a PPE shortage, surely. Why wasn't Deighton appointed to deal specifically with this issue weeks ago. Govt must have known there would be a high demand for PPE over an extended period. Why haven't there been a far greater effort to utilise UK based manufacturers, who seem to have been largely ignored?
The time has come to put a stop to this "working day and night and straining every sinew" line. We expect Govt to be pulling out all the stops. That should be a given. The Govt has to deliver.

I’m suggesting that it’s all about the timing. How we got into this and wasted so much time is definitely for the inquest. But now it’s a distraction and the focus should on managing the situation we are in, not the situation we wish to be in.

[Sandydragon]

I’m very conscious of my hay fever right now...

You got a thermometer at home boss? If so keep a daily watch on your actual fever if you are worried.

More that when I'm out, I'm worried I'm going to sneeze and everyone look at me like I'm the second coming of lucifer!

And my face is oh so damn itchy! Glad I'm at home 99% of the time so I can itch to my heart's content, lol.

Hay fever is a bitch.

[canta_brian]

I’m not sure anyone has said you shouldn’t criticise the govt for lack of PPE. Though, there is also the point that some hospitals are hoarding.
The issue is everyone is rushing to say we have our strategy completely wrong yet we’re only at approx 20%, hopefully, of the way through this until a vaccine is developed and distributed, and and single figure % through the economic fallout and the myriad of issues that arise from that. This isn’t as simple as how many COVID deaths do you suffer in the first two months.
It’s also the issue that just using COVID deaths as the metric for ‘success’ is too crude. Partly because of the above but also because COVID doesn’t treat all pops the same. Ethnicity and age demos are key, pop density, pop movement, living arrangements are key. Different cultures will also react differently, ie the U.K. pop under reacted against modelling when the govt asked them to use their common sense and went further than anticipated when given clearer direction. Yet, all we have, so far, is country A has X deaths compared to Y & Z country therefore they’re doing better or worse.

For context, I don’t think the govt have covered themselves in glory. They underplayed this at the start, possibly based on being too optimistic and possibly based on the fact they were playing off a flu pandemic hymn sheet, and have been scrambling ever since.

Actually that's utter shite. There have been careful and nuanced points made and I'm not sure a single person on this thread has made that point, never mind "all we've had".

It’s all it’s boiled down to but whatever you want to think.

You’re coming across as nothing more than a Tory apologist now.

[Mellsblue]

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Singapore might beg to differ:

[Mellsblue]

Actually that's utter shite. There have been careful and nuanced points made and I'm not sure a single person on this thread has made that point, never mind "all we've had".

It’s all it’s boiled down to but whatever you want to think.

You’re coming across as nothing more than a Tory apologist now.

I wouldn’t expect you to think anything else.

[morepork]

The second one is what matters right now. If there is an increased probability of mortality over historical data and Coronavirus is the primary variable in this increase (lock down/restricted socialising meaning less cars on the road/ less brawls in pubs etc), then, I mean fuck, do you need a neon sign?

Yup, and most of them will be the second - they're still deaths caused by Covid, even though Covid wasn't the "cause of death".
There are people not wanting to bother their GP about that mole, or a difficulty peeing, who would normally go get seen.
There are people too scared to go to a GP / hospital in case they contract Covid.
There are people dying before the ambulance gets there, or the ambulance gets there. But there's no ITU bed for them.
There are people who'd normally see ANOther therapist who might pick up a warning sign.
There's increased domestic abuse, and suicide.
Etc etc.

Of course, this will be balanced against fewer traffic accidents and alcohol related trauma / poisoning etc.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter. They're deaths that wouldn't have happened if Covid wasn't with us. IMO, it's the most important figure for analysing the impact of COVID.

FTR, for week 15, the 5-year average was around 10,520. The 2020 figure was 18,516. 6,213 had Covid on the death certificate (whether cause of death, or incidental).
With the mild winter, we'd been running below average before Covid struck.

Mate, less people out and about and a significant increase in deaths is not that hard to process.

[Stom]

You got a thermometer at home boss? If so keep a daily watch on your actual fever if you are worried.

More that when I'm out, I'm worried I'm going to sneeze and everyone look at me like I'm the second coming of lucifer!

And my face is oh so damn itchy! Glad I'm at home 99% of the time so I can itch to my heart's content, lol.

Hay fever is a bitch.

Don't get it in the UK. It's only from 2 plants, one is ragweed, that's not in the UK. The second I don't know yet, but is a lot milder. Started when I came here, but only very mildly because I lived in the city centre. Now I'm out in the leafy suburbs, it's much worse, but I'm lucky I only get itchiness and sneezing, some get it a lot, lot worse.

[canta_brian]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

[Donny osmond]

Actually that's perfectly reasonable. Given that there will be multiple waves of this virus.

It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as the UK, France, Italy, Sweden, and the USA.
It will take a while before we can distinguish between countries such as South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
But we've already had enough time to distinguish between these two groups and to point out which made the most "egregious mistakes".

What do you mean by multiple "waves" of this virus?
If we get the cases and deaths well down, the only reason for them rising to this kind of level again is if we mishandle the epidemic.
Its not a foregone conclusion that there will be "waves" and saying so is handing our leaders an excuse in advance.

South Korea and Singapore will not be experiencing anything other than slight ripples in their death and case rates, and that's because they're doing the right things.

Many experts are suggesting that this virus will disappear then reappear. Hence more than one wave. Part of that will be due to the virus hitting different countries at different times.

Yes South Korea took a different path and so far they are managing this well. But there have been different approaches in Europe and we will see which is the most successful.

It should really be noted that South Korea is taking a different path THIS TIME as they got it badly wrong in the past and GOT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LEARN FROM THEIR MISTAKES which is clearly not an option for anyone else. Their different path also involves an invasion of personal privacy that simply wouldn't be tolerated in pretty much any western European country, but sure, let's keep looking at stats that we are pretty sure are inaccurate and taking our direction from a press corp that we concurrently deride as being untrustworthy.



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[Donny osmond]

So the nightingale hospital in London. Opened to great fanfare and built with an initial capacity of 500 and the ability to expand to 4000, has so far treated 41 patients.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-patients

Now I know that I’m only posting these sorts of things because of my left wing bias, but anyone who doesn’t think that this government has treated the covid crisis to the same infowars methodology as they did with brexit is an idiot.

That the nightingale hospital has only treated 41 patients so far is a very good thing. I don't get your point?

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