Brexit delayed

[Banquo]

Well, there we are. Digby's given them the kiss of death.

First Kvesic, now Change UK.

Steffon before that.

[Digby]

that's two different points. The ground they propound to occupy is fertile (namely centre and anti-Brexit). And all were elected, and in some cases, Heidi Allen for one, Berger for another, had a bright future. The rest vary Soubry is awful, I grant you.

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

[Digby]

First Kvesic, now Change UK.

Steffon before that.

JSD, Cipriani, Wade...

At least with the rugby my side has sometimes won, that's never happened in an election

[Banquo]

I like them as a group, most of them I'd happily vote for. Though I'm not surprised that starting with a blank piece of paper and no party structure they're for now little more than a talking shop. I'll vote for them on Thursday, and hope that whatever else happens this likely to be aborted attempt at a new party is only a first try and will not be a fair measure of the whole experience

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

[Sandydragon]

ChangeUK have spent too much time trying to got the Is and cross the Ts. Farage just starts ranting and gets further quicker. It’s a period of time where populists have an advantage and trying to be balanced and sensible is just boring.

[Digby]

Brexit Party have done better with less

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

They can't agree on what the bigger picture should look like, so unless they want to voice 15 different answers they've little to say. I'm frustrated they haven't achieved more, but it's problematic even before they've some very different political views outside Brexit

I'll vote for them, and probably bung them some more money as I want to provide encouragement there's ongoing support for someone to lobby for the centre ground even if this group fails. And we've never more looked like the big two parties are so unsuitable for government and may even fail themselves. If this continues to fail, then such is life

[Banquo]

ChangeUK have spent too much time trying to got the Is and cross the Ts. Farage just starts ranting and gets further quicker. It’s a period of time where populists have an advantage and trying to be balanced and sensible is just boring.

hence 'they've misread the zeitgeist'.

[Banquo]

Difference being Nigel is making no attempt at delivering a coherent narrative that delivers a comprehensive plan of governance, indeed Nigel is famously saying he's not going to even try and put forward a manifesto ahead of the election

It's quite possible if all Change UK had done was speak as a voice against Brexit with no wider narrative they'd currently be polling better, but they're trying to do something more. And yes currently failing, which at this stage neither surprises nor depresses me

I've heard literally zip on a wider narrative, more a lot of apologies for gaffes and poorly selected candidates, which does depress me, as I thought they might be a contender- hence my missing an open goal point. They've misread the zeitgeist imo.

They can't agree on what the bigger picture should look like, so unless they want to voice 15 different answers they've little to say. I'm frustrated they haven't achieved more, but it's problematic even before they've some very different political views outside Brexit

I'll vote for them, and probably bung them some more money as I want to provide encouragement there's ongoing support for someone to lobby for the centre ground even if this group fails. And we've never more looked like the big two parties are so unsuitable for government and may even fail themselves. If this continues to fail, then such is life

How encouraging. They are in danger of ending before they have begun.

[Mellsblue]

I like to think I follow politics pretty closely, but beyond wanting a second ref I’ve no idea what they stand for. Other than standing for a new style of politics - which seems to mean being disorganised and having a confused hierarchy. If they believe the second ref is such a popular policy then why not just run on that for now. It is an EU election after all. Let’s face it, it’s the only common political belief between them all.

[Digby]

What do any of them stand for? Do Labour stand for a free market, regulated or otherwise? The Tories are no longer the party of business, nor law and order, nor the military. I think it's a perfectly reasonable point they could for now be a single issue party, but I've also no problem with them trying to establish a platform across the board somewhere in the middle, even if I think the effort highly unlikely to succeed, it took long enough just to get some people willing to walk away from their previous party structures, and tbh I don't know if I'd have wanted them to achieve Macron like success as I don't know how sustainable that is, watching them flounder has its positives

[Sandydragon]

I like to think I follow politics pretty closely, but beyond wanting a second ref I’ve no idea what they stand for. Other than standing for a new style of politics - which seems to mean being disorganised and having a confused hierarchy. If they believe the second ref is such a popular policy then why not just run on that for now. It is an EU election after all. Let’s face it, it’s the only common political belief between them all.

After the initial fanfare, they have been underwhelming. A clear policy of a second referendum would have got them notice. As Farage demonstrates, you don’t need detail in this debate, just a key message that you continually trumpet.

Conditions have changed, we need a second referendum. Rinse, repeat, etc.

[Which Tyler]

And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

[Mellsblue]

When they first launched I think they peaked at 12%. It has been a slow road downhill ever since.

[Mellsblue]

PC overtake Lab for the first time ever. Parties looking to break up a union at 57%.

[Sandydragon]

And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

[Stom]

And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

The press have been very clever in their coverage to ensure this happens.

[Mellsblue]

And they've gone and made such an impact on the polls, that they look increasingly like a wasted vote. I still don't know why most of them decided to form their own party, rather the join the Lib Dems.

I've mostly been looking at polling figures for the SW, but I haven't noticed CHUK getting close to the 10% or so needed to be challenging for an actual seat in the European Parliament. The breakdown here is something like 42% Brexit; 20% Lib Dem; 12% Green; 9% Con; 9% Lab; 4%; CHUK; 2% UKIP

Which, if my maths, and understanding of the d'Hondt system is correct (big ifs) gives Brexit 3 firm seats, Lib Dem 1 firm seat, Green 1 fairly-firm seat and then a real fight betwen Brexit and LD for the 6th and final seat (Con and Lab may also come into play, but look like they're losing ground each week, not gaining) - currently going to Brexit by 0.5% - less than the margin of error for any poll.
If CHUK called it quits, and handed their share to Lib Dem, or even 50:50 to each; then we'd get 3 seats pro-EU and 3 seats anti-EU.

Personally, I'm just hoping for nice weather on Thursday; as I think a higher turnout will be better for remainers - the leavers will pretty much vote anyway, as they tend to feel stronger about it, and also favour the older demographics who are more reliable to vote.

I like the concept of ChangeUK but to be honest I’ll probably vote Lib Dem in protest of Brexit to make sure my vote has some meaning.

It also bugs me a lot that remainders can’t summon up some passion for the cause. I get that most (myself included) have little love for closer European integration and federalism, but we seem very keen to cede the emotion to Brexiteers and rely on facts which people either don’t give a shit about it which might not happen.

The press have been very clever in their coverage to ensure this happens.

????????

[Sandydragon]

Do you mean the anti-EU media and their calls to patriotism?

[Which Tyler]

[Mellsblue]

So, the latest WAB includes provision for parliament to set overall negotiating strategy in post WA talks, provision for a second ref if parliament wishes, provision for a permanent CU if parliament wishes, no divergence between NI and the rest of the UK unless NI wishes, as well as handcuffing the UK to EU law on workers’ rights, the environment and agri food.
Sounds like there is something there for everyone and, yet, still no consensus, it seems.

[Mellsblue]

[Mellsblue]

No surprises. BP taking from Cons. LD and Gr taking from Lab.

[morepork]

Jesus. No policies over and above "dirty foreigners", and they are the most likely to be voted for?

You are fucked.

[fivepointer]

We may be...

https://capx.co/british-politics-is-bro ... lot-worse/

"Just what will give and at what price remains something to be determined but I’d suggest that if you think this is as dark as it can get you risk seeming a cock-eyed optimist. There is a storm brewing and I suspect this is just the start of it"

This is another good piece - https://news.sky.com/story/trumpism-is- ... e-11714025

[Digby]

Are there polls for voting intentions were this a GE tomorrow?

Nice to know we've cocked up sending out the overseas postal votes by using someone who said they could get the job done cheaper than Royal Mail, this from the same crowd who want to bring in voter ID to scare poor people with the supposed justification of voter fraud.