Brexit delayed

[Banquo]

Depends how many of the ERG you think you can peel off. There are only a handful who are truly nuts probably no ot many more than pro-Brexit Lab. May would obviously need Lab votes but it’s a handful, not what I would call a cross party movement.

I think you underestimate the size of the ERG, and any movement from Labour is cross party . Frankly, once the 2017 election disaster had happened, what is now happening was predictable. Whole thing is stupid.

When you said ‘movement’ I thought you meant as in an organised body of people, rather than movement from some Lab waiverers.
I don’t underestimate the size of the ERG but you may overestimate how many nutters there are/were in it. There are a lot who would have followed Gove, though he’s not ERG, if given reason to. From what I’ve read and heard, including from one source very initimate with it all, most of the ERG have only gone completely mad in the final death throes. Things have just become slowly more entrenched on their side as they’ve been sidelined by May, ie Davis and Raab, they see people trying to frustrate Brexit, eg second ref and europhiles having cosy meetings with Barnier etc. Now that they see a chance to really stick it up everyone they are trying to take it. That also goes the other way, as they’ve moved more to no deal so Remainers have become more militant.
Couldn’t agree more with your last two sentences. I can’t think of one person who comes out of this whole thing with credit.

I think there are more than 30 hardline ERG members plus DUP- you would need a lot of Labour to offset that.

[Mellsblue]

I think you underestimate the size of the ERG, and any movement from Labour is cross party . Frankly, once the 2017 election disaster had happened, what is now happening was predictable. Whole thing is stupid.

When you said ‘movement’ I thought you meant as in an organised body of people, rather than movement from some Lab waiverers.
I don’t underestimate the size of the ERG but you may overestimate how many nutters there are/were in it. There are a lot who would have followed Gove, though he’s not ERG, if given reason to. From what I’ve read and heard, including from one source very initimate with it all, most of the ERG have only gone completely mad in the final death throes. Things have just become slowly more entrenched on their side as they’ve been sidelined by May, ie Davis and Raab, they see people trying to frustrate Brexit, eg second ref and europhiles having cosy meetings with Barnier etc. Now that they see a chance to really stick it up everyone they are trying to take it. That also goes the other way, as they’ve moved more to no deal so Remainers have become more militant.
Couldn’t agree more with your last two sentences. I can’t think of one person who comes out of this whole thing with credit.

I think there are more than 30 hardline ERG members plus DUP- you would need a lot of Labour to offset that.

There might be now, though I’d argue that’s a touch high, but 7/8/9 months ago there weren’t that many and the DUP has a different stance to the one they have now. Tbh, it’s all ifs, buts and maybes. All we do know is that it’s been a farking shambles from start until finish.

[Digby]

Depends how many of the ERG you think you can peel off. There are only a handful who are truly nuts probably no ot many more than pro-Brexit Lab. May would obviously need Lab votes but it’s a handful, not what I would call a cross party movement.

I think you underestimate the size of the ERG, and any movement from Labour is cross party . Frankly, once the 2017 election disaster had happened, what is now happening was predictable. Whole thing is stupid.

When you said ‘movement’ I thought you meant as in an organised body of people, rather than movement from some Lab waiverers.
I don’t underestimate the size of the ERG but you may overestimate how many nutters there are/were in it. There are a lot who would have followed Gove, though he’s not ERG, if given reason to. From what I’ve read and heard, including from one source very initimate with it all, most of the ERG have only gone completely mad in the final death throes. Things have just become slowly more entrenched on their side as they’ve been sidelined by May, ie Davis and Raab, they see people trying to frustrate Brexit, eg second ref and europhiles having cosy meetings with Barnier etc. Now that they see a chance to really stick it up everyone they are trying to take it. That also goes the other way, as they’ve moved more to no deal so Remainers have become more militant.
Couldn’t agree more with your last two sentences. I can’t think of one person who comes out of this whole thing with credit.

Whatever the number in the ERG is the same as the number of lunatics in the ERG,always has been,seemingly always will be

The only caveat to that is a number stand to benefit massively financially from a hard brexit and thus one might allow naked self interest over national interest is sane, if disgusting behaviour

[Digby]

I would like to express my surprise May is again kicking the can down the road, it's a wholly new tactical play.

What is up for question again is whether MPs continue to allow a delusional and dangerous PM to continue with the farce or whether they finally do their jobs. And then we have to wait and see what the EU response is, they're not going to want an extension just to watch us dither further, but technically they're not really any better prepared for no deal than we are

[Digby]

Given the comments from Tusk there's little doubt we can get an extension to article 50, though how long for, whether it'll encompasses future elections and what any contribution to future EU budgets are all reasonable concerns

[Puja]

Given the comments from Tusk there's little doubt we can get an extension to article 50, though how long for, whether it'll encompasses future elections and what any contribution to future EU budgets are all reasonable concerns

I am surprised by the positive noises coming out of the EU about an extension; I was expecting that they'd be telling us to do one by now. I guess they're still hopeful that if they give us time it'll result in a softer Brexit or even none at all, and that's still outweighing the frustration at the moment. Whether that'll hold true across all 27 leaders come the vote is yet to be seen though.

Puja

[Digby]

Given the comments from Tusk there's little doubt we can get an extension to article 50, though how long for, whether it'll encompasses future elections and what any contribution to future EU budgets are all reasonable concerns

I am surprised by the positive noises coming out of the EU about an extension; I was expecting that they'd be telling us to do one by now. I guess they're still hopeful that if they give us time it'll result in a softer Brexit or even none at all, and that's still outweighing the frustration at the moment. Whether that'll hold true across all 27 leaders come the vote is yet to be seen though.

Puja

Partly they would be keen to facilitate a softer brexit and partly they're not ready for no deal either, there's so much left to agree it's ridiculous

[Stom]

I think if there's one thing everyone can agree on: it's a farce. The issue comes when we have to agree on which part is the high farce and which part is the pure insanity...

I, of course, want any possible remain. I want it to be as seamless as possible for me and my family to enter and exit the UK at will, and I want the ability to do business in the UK, too.

So I will be very strongly making sure I have the opportunity to vote should there be a 2nd ref. I may even end up deciding to be in the country on the date of the vote if there is one...

[Digby]

Delay means delay.

Whatever else one thinks if Theresa her rhetoric is soaring, a Gladstone for our times

[Sandydragon]

It seems like May is more concerned about the deadline than the actual deal. If the EU are prepared to allow some flex, why is she so adamant that we will depart on time? It looks very much like she wants to force MPs to vote for her deal given a lack of options, which is a dangerous thing to do if they refuse!

[Banquo]

It seems like May is more concerned about the deadline than the actual deal. If the EU are prepared to allow some flex, why is she so adamant that we will depart on time? It looks very much like she wants to force MPs to vote for her deal given a lack of options, which is a dangerous thing to do if they refuse!

Obviously. Delaying will absolutely fck her up once and for all- suspect she would actually resign at that point.

[Digby]

It's genuinely hard to keep up, especially with all the noise outside as there's a pallet stacked across the road which passes muster for exporting to the EU and 4,000 producers are having a fight trying to claim it


However moving beyond pallets Alberto Costa puts forward an amendment saying we'll respect the rights of EU citizens irrespective of the brexit deal, the home office or Sajid Javid says the government will support the motion, the government then fires Costa for tabling the motion that Javid said they'd support, and just to bring us up to date Bercow has tabled the motion the government fired Costa for which Javid said they'd support. Simples.

[Digby]

It's genuinely hard to keep up, especially with all the noise outside as there's a pallet stacked across the road which passes muster for exporting to the EU and 4,000 producers are having a fight trying to claim it


However moving beyond pallets Alberto Costa puts forward an amendment saying we'll respect the rights of EU citizens irrespective of the brexit deal, the home office or Sajid Javid says the government will support the motion, the government then fires Costa for tabling the motion that Javid said they'd support, and just to bring us up to date Bercow has tabled the motion the government fired Costa for which Javid said they'd support. Simples.

So simple May said yesterday they wouldn’t back the Costa amendment, but now or at least for now Liddington says it meets many of the government's own objectives and consequently the government does in fact support it.

Whether Alberto is still fired is frankly probably unknown both to the government and to Alberto

And all this does beg the question how are you supposed to negotiate with HMG? They're all over the bleedin' shop

[Stones of granite]

I've just been to the post office to order my International Driving Permit in preparedness for a no-deal, as I visit head office in France for 1 week in every month.
What a fucking waste of time that was. My local post office are not accepting applications, as they have run out of the "special glue" required to stick the passport photo to the form. My passport has visas for the US, India, China and Russia in it, and in each case I used a Pritt stick to glue the photo to the application form, so I met this news with nothing short of incredulity.
"You could try going up to Perth or down to Dunfermline", came the helpful response
"Do they definitely have this magic glue, then?" quoth I.
"er,....I don't know....probably....."

I suspect this is a pretty good indicator of our general state of readiness for the forthcoming clusterfuck.

[Digby]

And the government pulls the financial services bill in order to avoid Parliament expressing its sovereignty, could have stuck this in another thread but given May says we're leaving we do actually need parliament to pass this bill, and hoping people forget about vast levels of corruption and vote this through how the government oddly wants isn't going to happen in time. Really they should have taken the hit of an amendment they didn't want, or were bribed not to want, and returned to it another day.

[Digby]

BMW and Toyota pile on after Honda had their say, no doubt the brexiters think everything is for the best and providing we leave we'll be in the best of all possible worlds

[canta_brian]

I've just been to the post office to order my International Driving Permit in preparedness for a no-deal, as I visit head office in France for 1 week in every month.
What a fucking waste of time that was. My local post office are not accepting applications, as they have run out of the "special glue" required to stick the passport photo to the form. My passport has visas for the US, India, China and Russia in it, and in each case I used a Pritt stick to glue the photo to the application form, so I met this news with nothing short of incredulity.
"You could try going up to Perth or down to Dunfermline", came the helpful response
"Do they definitely have this magic glue, then?" quoth I.
"er,....I don't know....probably....."

I suspect this is a pretty good indicator of our general state of readiness for the forthcoming clusterfuck.

The magic glue is probably made in another eu member state. Anyone got Grayling’s number. I’m in the Uk, don’t have any glue or the expertise to make it so I figure I am in prime position to take on this essential post brexit role.

[Digby]

And it keeps getting worse, Nigel Lawson is returning home. He had claimed he was staying in France but gave that up because he didn't want to pay French taxes, and whilst he'd prefer to stay there he wasn't able to forsee brexit would make that a problem

Good news for France is perhaps the positive news to take from this

[Digby]

And the motion says... nobody knows. Just what we're hoping for with all the rumours tomorrow's meaningful vote either gets pulled or changed to a meaningful hypothetical vote

[Digby]

Outstanding, we're negotiating for our own interpretive analysis of the withdrawal agreement not shared by anyone else

[Sandydragon]

May has declared victory in her negotiations with those horrible Europeans. But will it be enough to get the ERG, DUP and remainders all onside?

[Which Tyler]

Well, when the prime minister does it, that means that it is not illegal

[fivepointer]

a legal opinion here - https://www.daqc.co.uk/2019/03/12/can-t ... be-beaten/

The conclusion - "It is crystal clear that the measures do not alter the fundamental legal effect of the backstop, as previously and correctly explained by the Attorney General. The backstop will endure indefinitely, unless and until superseded by another agreement, save in the extreme and unlikely event that in future negotiations the EU acts in bad faith in rejecting the UK’s demands"

[Sandydragon]

So the May deal will be rejected. And she is probably out on her ear given the apparent threat of Tory Rebels to back a vote of no confidence.

Is there anyone who can negotiate a compromise that will has a vote in the Commons? Time for some grown ups to make themselves known.

[Digby]

To reject the deal the vote will have to go ahead. And May does like a delay